11th Annual NEWxSFC - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts

[TQ]

Two-day event depicted on short and medium range models resulting from
cyclogenesis off the VA / NC coast and the surface LOW/s retrograding
motion over NJ and eastern PA blocked from lifting-out by HIGH
pressure parked over Canada's Maritime Provinces.

-----
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST WED...24-FEB-10

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...25-FEB-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB 10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for
personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can make
the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the
'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account
(user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your
forecast sent to your Inbox).

NEWxSFC home page:
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Web log:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

[TQ]

Looks to be about a dozen forecasts.

Entry No. 978
Forecaster = rcarroll
Time = 2/24/2010 2:57:24 PM
CAR = 5.0
BGR = 7.2
PWM = 7.0
CON = 8.4
BTV = 5.8
BOS = 3.5
HYA = 2.5
ORH = 6.5
PVD = 2.2
BDR = 2.6
BDL = 3.0
ALB = 4.8
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 3.0
JFK = 3.9
ABE = 5.5
MDT = 4.2
PHL = 6.0
ACY = 4.4
EWR = 5.1
BWI = 4.5
IAD = 3.0
DCA = 3.2
SBY = 4.0
RIC = 2.0
ORF = 2.2
RDU = .5
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 979
Forecaster = millersville_bauers
Time = 2/24/2010 5:15:10 PM
CAR = 1.4
BGR = 2.4
PWM = 3.4
CON = 2.2
BTV = 9.5
BOS = 2.3
HYA = 0.5
ORH = 1.4
PVD = 1.5
BDR = 7.8
BDL = 5.0
ALB = 6.9
BGM = 10.5
ISP = 3.8
JFK = 7.9
ABE = 11.5
MDT = 6.5
PHL = 12.3
ACY = 6.5
EWR = 10.0
BWI = 4.0
IAD = 3.8
DCA = 3.6
SBY = 3.2
RIC = 2.2
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 980
Forecaster = weatherT
Time = 2/24/2010 6:27:21 PM
CAR = 2.2
BGR = 2.5
PWM = 1.5
CON = 0.4
BTV = 2.5
BOS = 0.3
HYA = 0.1
ORH = 0.2
PVD = 0.1
BDR = 2.5
BDL = 2.0
ALB = 1.5
BGM = 6.5
ISP = 2.0
JFK = 4.5
ABE = 11.0
MDT = 6.0
PHL = 6.0
ACY = 3.0
EWR = 9.0
BWI = 1.5
IAD = 0.8
DCA = 0.6
SBY = 0.4
RIC = 0.05
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 981
Forecaster = TQ
Time = 2/24/2010 8:26:08 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 8
PWM = 1
CON = .05
BTV = 1
BOS = .05
HYA = 0
ORH = .05
PVD = .05
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 1
ALB = 1.5
BGM = 7
ISP = 2
JFK = 11
ABE = 6
MDT = 5
PHL = 5
ACY = 5
EWR = 8
BWI = 2
IAD = 1
DCA = 1
SBY = 2
RIC = .05
ORF = .5
RDU = .05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 982
Forecaster = ilibov
Time = 2/24/2010 9:05:52 PM
CAR = 6.5
BGR = 1.2
PWM = 1.2
CON = 6.5
BTV = 7.5
BOS = 1.0
HYA = 0.50
ORH = 3.6
PVD = 1.0
BDR = 8.5
BDL = 6.5
ALB = 25.6
BGM = 19.7
ISP = 6.7
JFK = 13.2
ABE = 14.6
MDT = 4.2
PHL = 7.75
ACY = 3.2
EWR = 15.2
BWI = 2.7
IAD = 1.2
DCA = 1.2
SBY = 05
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 983
Forecaster = snowman
Time = 2/24/2010 9:42:37 PM
CAR = 2
BGR = 2
PWM = 0
CON = 2
BTV = 3
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 1
BDL = 1.5
ALB = 1
BGM = 9
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 7
MDT = 5
PHL = 6
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 984
Forecaster = Roger Smith
Time = 2/24/2010 9:43:15 PM
CAR = 0.1
BGR = 0.1
PWM = 0.1
CON = 0.2
BTV = 3.5
BOS = 0.4
HYA = 0.05
ORH = 2.7
PVD = 1.0
BDR = 3.7
BDL = 3.4
ALB = 12.5
BGM = 18.8
ISP = 2.0
JFK = 12.0
ABE = 21.5
MDT = 2.3
PHL = 10.9
ACY = 11.1
EWR = 25.7
BWI = 4.4
IAD = 1.0
DCA = 0.3
SBY = 1.0
RIC = 0.3
ORF = 0.2
RDU = 0.1
Comments = I have narrowed down JFK to 1-33 inches. Even that could
bust.
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 985
Forecaster = Mitchel Volk
Time = 2/24/2010 9:47:47 PM
CAR = 2
BGR = 2
PWM = 3
CON = 3
BTV = 1
BOS = 4
HYA = 2
ORH = 6
PVD = 3
BDR = 4
BDL = 6
ALB = 3
BGM = 10
ISP = 4
JFK = 12
ABE = 15
MDT = 10
PHL = 18
ACY = 14
EWR = 22
BWI = 5
IAD = 3
DCA = 2
SBY = 1
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Insane Forecast
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 986
Forecaster = donsutherland1
Time = 2/24/2010 10:29:24 PM
CAR = 3.5
BGR = 4.5
PWM = 0.5
CON = 0.0
BTV = 0.3
BOS = 0.0
HYA = 0.0
ORH = 2.0
PVD = 0.5
BDR = 3.7
BDL = 1.5
ALB = 1.5
BGM = 14.0
ISP = 4.0
JFK = 8.0
ABE = 13.0
MDT = 5.0
PHL = 11.5
ACY = 10.5
EWR = 14.0
BWI = 2.5
IAD = 1.2
DCA = 1.5
SBY = 1.8
RIC = 0.5
ORF = 0.0
RDU = 0.3
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 987
Forecaster = Donald Rosenfeld
Time = 2/24/2010 10:30:04 PM
CAR = 4
BGR = 3
PWM = .50
CON = 3
BTV = 12
BOS = 1
HYA = .50
ORH = 4
PVD = 0
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 4
ALB = 14.75
BGM = 13
ISP = 2.25
JFK = 13
ABE = 14
MDT = 8.5
PHL = 9
ACY = 7
EWR = 15
BWI = 2.5
IAD = 1
DCA = 1
SBY = 1
RIC = .25
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 988
Forecaster = Raven
Time = 2/24/2010 10:33:05 PM
CAR = 7.8
BGR = 12.0
PWM = 16.8
CON = 15.6
BTV = 8.4
BOS = 12.6
HYA = 7.2
ORH = 15.6
PVD = 13.2
BDR = 15.0
BDL = 15.6
ALB = 5.0
BGM = 16.2
ISP = 7.0
JFK = 15.0
ABE = 13.6
MDT = 6.0
PHL = 10.9
ACY = 10.0
EWR = 19.0
BWI = 3.0
IAD = 3.0
DCA = 1.8
SBY = 3.6
RIC = 0.6
ORF = 1.2
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 989
Forecaster = emoran
Time = 2/24/2010 10:33:58 PM
CAR = 5
BGR = 10
PWM = 8
CON = 8
BTV = 4
BOS = 2.5
HYA = .5
ORH = 8
PVD = 3
BDR = 8
BDL = 6
ALB = 13
BGM = 15
ISP = 3.5
JFK = 5
ABE = 12.5
MDT = 3
PHL = 7
ACY = 7
EWR = 12
BWI = .5
IAD = .05
DCA = .05
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = I'd rather sit down with a beer and watch olympic
bobsledding than forecast this disaster., but there will be a narrow
stripe of very heavy snow...not as wide spread as the rumor mill I've
been hearing.
----End of Entry----

[Shillelagh]

missed the last 2 contests while i was down in MD for work...ratfarts!

[TQ]

Average STP (126.5") per average number of stations (24) forecast:
5.3".

Twelve entries...including three Rookies...one Intern...and eight
senior forecasters...issued 288 station forecasts for the winter/s 7th
contest snow storm.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web
site.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...FRI 26-FEB-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall amounts will be posted the evening of
SAT 27-FEB-10.

[TQ]

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41
and METARs posted at the web blog.
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2010/02/winter-09-10-snow-storm-7-preliminary.html

No climate or spotter reports for SBY. METARs suggest trace amount.

Nine new daily records.

THU...25-FEB-10
BGM - 13.9" (4.2"; 1966)
ABE - 9.8" (3.2"; 1966)
ACY - 4.6" (1.6"; 1974)
EWR - 6.7" (2.4"; 2005)

FRI....26-FEB-10
BDR - 4.9" (3"; 2007)
ISP - 8.9" (2.9"; 1991)
JFK - 8.5" (6.4"; 1991)
ACY - 4.1" (2.8"; 1993)
EWR - 8.2" (4"; 1991)

Please report errors and a link to the correct data.

Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.

[TQ]

NEWxSFC Chief forecaster donsutherland1 has won this season/s 7th
snowfall forecast contest.

SUMSQ error: 132.3"
Z-score: -1.129

Improvement over the average error: 78% (595")

Lowest station errors @BTV and ABE

His forecast placed 1st in all categiories - storm-total
precipitation...total absolute error...average absolute error...and R-
SQ

Congratulations donsutherland1!

2nd Place: weatherT (299.1"; -0.720)
3rd Place: TQ (342.6"; -0.616)
Honorable Mention: millersville_bauers (382.4"; -0.518)

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the
Contest web site.