11th Annual NEWxSFC - Snow Storm #5 - Call for Forecasts

[TQ]

Mid-level systems over NV and north of WI SUN evening are progged to
phase over the next 24 hours and deliver a moderate-to-heavy snow
event for the mid-Atlantic TUE/WED. Current forecasts suggest coastal
areas of SNE may be side-swipped by this storm.

NEWxSFC often does land office business in FEB and this year is no
exception. Snow storm #5 will be the third Contest snow storm in less
than 10 days.

-----
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST MON...08-FEB-10

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST TUE...09-FEB-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST WED...10-FEB-10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

[TQ]

Forecasts posted to the web site and summary on the web blog TUE
evening.

Entry No. 940
Forecaster = brentsuny07
Time = 2/7/2010 8:14:29 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 1
CON = 3.9
BTV = 1
BOS = 4.6
HYA = 3.5
ORH = 5.5
PVD = 7.5
BDR = 10.1
BDL = 12.2
ALB = 6
BGM = 9
ISP = 8.7
JFK = 10.2
ABE = 14.5
MDT = 9.7
PHL = 10.2
ACY = 6.8
EWR = 14
BWI = 11.5
IAD = 9.3
DCA = 6.4
SBY = 3.2
RIC = 0.8
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 957
Forecaster = donsutherland1
Time = 2/8/2010 10:28:55 PM
CAR = 0.5
BGR = 0.2
PWM = 1.3
CON = 1.2
BTV = 0.6
BOS = 6.5
HYA = 8.0
ORH = 5.5
PVD = 8.5
BDR = 10.9
BDL = 6.0
ALB = 2.0
BGM = 3.3
ISP = 12.9
JFK = 11.3
ABE = 11.5
MDT = 14.6
PHL = 14.0
ACY = 8.8
EWR = 11.3
BWI = 14.5
IAD = 12.5
DCA = 12.0
SBY = 5.0
RIC = 2.5
ORF = 0.5
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 958
Forecaster = Donald Rosenfeld
Time = 2/8/2010 10:30:00 PM
CAR = 0.10
BGR = 0
PWM = .05
CON = .01
BTV = .50
BOS = 6
HYA = 8
ORH = 3.25
PVD = 6.5
BDR = 10
BDL = 5.25
ALB = 2.25
BGM = 3.75
ISP = 11
JFK = 9.5
ABE = 9.25
MDT = 10
PHL = 11
ACY = 9
EWR = 9.75
BWI = 10
IAD = 8.75
DCA = 9.5
SBY = 8
RIC = 4
ORF = .5
RDU = 1
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 959
Forecaster = Newa2010
Time = 2/8/2010 10:30:10 PM
CAR = 0.5
BGR = .05
PWM = 2.2
CON = 2.5
BTV = 0.5
BOS = 8.0
HYA = 11.0
ORH = 5.0
PVD = 8.0
BDR = 6.5
BDL = 4.0
ALB = 1.8
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 7.5
JFK = 8.0
ABE = 9.5
MDT = 10.0
PHL = 11.0
ACY = 6.5
EWR = 7.5
BWI = 14.0
IAD = 9.5
DCA = 12.0
SBY = 5.0
RIC = 1.0
ORF = 0.0
RDU = 0.0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 960
Forecaster = Shillelagh
Time = 2/8/2010 10:30:12 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 4
HYA = 11
ORH = 3
PVD = 9
BDR = 8
BDL = 6
ALB = 2.5
BGM = 5
ISP = 14
JFK = 10
ABE = 7
MDT = 12.5
PHL = 15
ACY = 8
EWR = 9
BWI = 13
IAD = 6.5
DCA = 5
SBY = 3.5
RIC = 0.5
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 961
Forecaster = Raven
Time = 2/8/2010 10:30:24 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 2.5
BTV = 0.5
BOS = 6.0
HYA = 8.0
ORH = 6.0
PVD = 10.0
BDR = 9.0
BDL = 10.0
ALB = 4.5
BGM = 8.0
ISP = 13.5
JFK = 12.0
ABE = 12.5
MDT = 15.0
PHL = 19.0
ACY = 6.7
EWR = 11.5
BWI = 16.0
IAD = 13.0
DCA = 13.0
SBY = 2.0
RIC = 2.0
ORF = 0.5
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 941
Forecaster = weathafella
Time = 2/8/2010 5:38:19 AM
CAR = 0.2
BGR = 2.1
PWM = 4.8
CON = 6.6
BTV = 2.3
BOS = 9.5
HYA = 7.4
ORH = 14.1
PVD = 10.9
BDR = 12.1
BDL = 8.2
ALB = 6.1
BGM = 3.1
ISP = 9.0
JFK = 8.1
ABE = 6.6
MDT = 5.9
PHL = 6.7
ACY = 5.2
EWR = 7.2
BWI = 5.1
IAD = 3.3
DCA = 2.9
SBY = 1.3
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Classic Miller B bomb. Swath of heavy snow concentrated NYC-
PSM
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 942
Forecaster = bubbler86
Time = 2/8/2010 11:00:04 AM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 943
Forecaster = bubbler86
Time = 2/8/2010 11:10:32 AM
CAR = 0
BGR = 1
PWM = 1
CON = 1
BTV = 2
BOS = 16
HYA = 13
ORH = 14
PVD = 16
BDR = 13
BDL = 11
ALB = 2
BGM = 3
ISP = 11
JFK = 9
ABE = 13
MDT = 16
PHL = 19
ACY = 16
EWR = 14
BWI = 17
IAD = 22
DCA = 14
SBY = 16
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 944
Forecaster = Professor1313blue
Time = 2/8/2010 1:13:46 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 3
RDU = 0
Comments = Stom will slide by Virgina Beach out tothe Atlantic
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 945
Forecaster = weatherT
Time = 2/8/2010 4:39:27 PM
CAR = 0.05
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 0.5
CON = 0.8
BTV = 0
BOS = 1.7
HYA = 1.5
ORH = 0.5
PVD = 4.0
BDR = 8.0
BDL = 5.5
ALB = 1.0
BGM = 4.5
ISP = 8.5
JFK = 11.0
ABE = 6.0
MDT = 11.0
PHL = 13.0
ACY = 3.0
EWR = 12.0
BWI = 14.5
IAD = 11.5
DCA = 13.0
SBY = 2.5
RIC = 4.0
ORF = 0.3
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 946
Forecaster = herb@maws
Time = 2/8/2010 5:22:36 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 1
CON = 0.5
BTV = 0
BOS = 5
HYA = 11
ORH = 5
PVD = 14
BDR = 9
BDL = 8
ALB = 1
BGM = 3
ISP = 13
JFK = 11
ABE = 14
MDT = 13
PHL = 16
ACY = 12
EWR = 10
BWI = 14
IAD = 14
DCA = 14
SBY = 5
RIC = 0
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 947
Forecaster = Roger Smith
Time = 2/8/2010 6:23:49 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 1.5
CON = 2.5
BTV = 0.5
BOS = 12.5
HYA = 14.0
ORH = 5.5
PVD = 16.3
BDR = 8.8
BDL = 7.4
ALB = 5.5
BGM = 8.7
ISP = 24.0
JFK = 18.5
ABE = 10.5
MDT = 6.5
PHL = 23.2
ACY = 17.4
EWR = 14.4
BWI = 20.8
IAD = 17.5
DCA = 12.5
SBY = 16.2
RIC = 7.7
ORF = 4.5
RDU = 3.3
Comments = I'm getting dizzy
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 948
Forecaster = nnjwxguy78
Time = 2/8/2010 7:28:00 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 2.1
CON = 3.5
BTV = 0
BOS = 12.5
HYA = 11.0
ORH = 12
PVD = 14.1
BDR = 16.0
BDL = 16.0
ALB = 7
BGM = 3.25
ISP = 10
JFK = 9
ABE = 9
MDT = 9
PHL = 9
ACY = 11
EWR = 18
BWI = 9
IAD = 8
DCA = 9
SBY = 12
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = I hate being last...
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 949
Forecaster = wxblaster
Time = 2/8/2010 8:24:18 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 0.05
CON = 1.75
BTV = 0.05
BOS = 6.75
HYA = 7.00
ORH = 2.90
PVD = 5.60
BDR = 5.10
BDL = 5.70
ALB = 2.50
BGM = 4.50
ISP = 6.80
JFK = 7.90
ABE = 8.00
MDT = 10.80
PHL = 14.00
ACY = 10.00
EWR = 8.00
BWI = 11.00
IAD = 13.00
DCA = 12.00
SBY = 8.00
RIC = 2.00
ORF = 5.00
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 950
Forecaster = wxduff
Time = 2/8/2010 9:47:54 PM
CAR = 0.05
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 1
CON = 0.25
BTV = 0.05
BOS = 4
HYA = 8
ORH = 3.75
PVD = 7
BDR = 10
BDL = 8
ALB = 1.75
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 12
JFK = 9
ABE = 8
MDT = 15
PHL = 12
ACY = 8
EWR = 6
BWI = 12
IAD = 12
DCA = 10
SBY = 8
RIC = 2
ORF = 2
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 951
Forecaster = wxfox51
Time = 2/8/2010 9:47:59 PM
CAR = 0.05
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 0.2
CON = 0.9
BTV = 0.05
BOS = 4.2
HYA = 8.7
ORH = 3.4
PVD = 8.3
BDR = 8.9
BDL = 7.7
ALB = 2.1
BGM = 3.6
ISP = 13.1
JFK = 10.1
ABE = 8.2
MDT = 14.3
PHL = 12.8
ACY = 8.7
EWR = 9.3
BWI = 14.3
IAD = 12.4
DCA = 9.8
SBY = 7.3
RIC = 3.2
ORF = 1.3
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 952
Forecaster = emoran
Time = 2/8/2010 10:04:07 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0.05
BOS = 7
HYA = 14
ORH = 6
PVD = 10
BDR = 10
BDL = 5
ALB = 3
BGM = 7
ISP = 15
JFK = 12.5
ABE = 9
MDT = 9
PHL = 10
ACY = 6
EWR = 10
BWI = 6
IAD = 8
DCA = 6
SBY = 2.0
RIC = 0.3
ORF = 0
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 953
Forecaster = TQ
Time = 2/8/2010 10:06:36 PM
CAR = .05
BGR = 0
PWM = 1.5
CON = 1.5
BTV = 0
BOS = 3
HYA = 4
ORH = 6
PVD = 8
BDR = 12
BDL = 8
ALB = 3
BGM = 3
ISP = 12
JFK = 10
ABE = 4
MDT = 4
PHL = 6
ACY = 6
EWR = 8
BWI = 10
IAD = 10
DCA = 10
SBY = 3
RIC = 2
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 954
Forecaster = catatonia
Time = 2/8/2010 10:16:44 PM
CAR = 0.5
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 0.5
CON = 3.5
BTV = 0
BOS = 12.5
HYA = 5.3
ORH = 14.7
PVD = 10.8
BDR = 10.1
BDL = 9.6
ALB = 3.1
BGM = 6.3
ISP = 9.7
JFK = 12.4
ABE = 16.3
MDT = 19.7
PHL = 17.5
ACY = 6.8
EWR = 13.4
BWI = 18.7
IAD = 13.8
DCA = 8.4
SBY = 4.5
RIC = 1.5
ORF = 0
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 955
Forecaster = snowman
Time = 2/8/2010 10:23:59 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 1
CON = 1
BTV = 1
BOS = 6.5
HYA = 2.5
ORH = 3
PVD = 4.5
BDR = 4
BDL = 5
ALB = 7
BGM = 7.5
ISP = 2.5
JFK = 3.5
ABE = 8
MDT = 10
PHL = 13.5
ACY = 8.5
EWR = 5
BWI = 14
IAD = 12.5
DCA = 13
SBY = 7
RIC = 3
ORF = 1
RDU = 1
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 956
Forecaster = millersville_bauers
Time = 2/8/2010 10:26:44 PM
CAR = 0.2
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 2.3
CON = 2.8
BTV = 0.2
BOS = 7.5
HYA = 8.8
ORH = 7.8
PVD = 9.8
BDR = 10.2
BDL = 11.5
ALB = 7.1
BGM = 10.0
ISP = 15.5
JFK = 14.5
ABE = 12.0
MDT = 13.0
PHL = 18.0
ACY = 4.5
EWR = 14.5
BWI = 16.4
IAD = 12.5
DCA = 12.0
SBY = 2.9
RIC = 1.6
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

TQ

NEWxSFC home page:
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Web log:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

[TQ]

21 entries...including five Rookies... one who has entered their first
contest this winter...three Interns...two Journeyman...and 11 Senior
forecasters...issued 509 station forecasts for the winter/s 5th
contest snow storm.

Two entries were disqualified; one b/c the forecast included one
station only and one was submitted well past the deadline.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted to the Contest's web
site.
Charts and graphs on the web blog.

[TQ]

Preliminary verification for storm-total snowfall @
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2010/02/winter-09-10-snow-storm-5-preliminary.html

Please report errors and a link to the correct data.
Final results and storm summary Friday evening.

[TQ]

NEWxSFC Chief forecaster donsutherland1 has won this season/s 5th
snowfall forecast contest.

SUMSQ error:232.5"
Z-score: -0.996

Improvement over the average error: 57% (542")

Perfect forecast @JFK
Lowest station errors @JFK and ORF.

Congratulations donsutherland1!

2nd Place: wxfox51* (260.5"; -0.905)
3rd Place: weatherT (302.4"; -0.771)
Honorable Mention: Raven (312.7"; -0.737)
*Rookie

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the
Contest web site.

[TQ]

HWSNBN would have placed 18th had PUSU really been a 1st principle.

Total absolutre error: 109.85"
AVG TAE (all forecasters): 86.9"
1st place TAE: 57.15:

Average absolute station error: 4.58"
AAE station error (all forecasters): 3.48"
1st place AAE: 2.16"

Huge bust in SNE where 10-14" had been forecast.

Like WxMachine used to say...the reason these guys don't enter is they
fear losing guru status.