11th Annual NEWxSFC - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!
TQ
NWP forecasts indicate this event will affect mainly northern forecast
stations over a two-day period as the surface LOW meanders around the
Gulf of Maine.
This storm won/t spawn from the typical winter wx regime where the mid-
upper level westerlies amplify...the wavelength shortens...and a nor-
easter gains latitude as it comes up the east coast. If anything...the
long-wave pattern is de-amplifying...evidenced by decreasing PNA index
values. This weekend/s storm is a child of a down-stream Rex block
formed by a strong...closed anti-cyclone over Greenland. HPC mentions
'phasing' a few times in HPC/s afternoon 'Heavy Snowfall
Discussion' (HSD)...so...a call goes out for forecasts.
-----
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST FRI...01-JAN-10
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST SAT...02-JAN-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST SUN...03-JAN-10
Enter your forecast at the Contest web site (http://www.newx-
forecasts.com/)
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for
personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can
make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the
'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account
(user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your
forecast sent to your Inbox) before submitting your entry.
TQ
Where a forecaster has made more than one entry..only the last one is
counts.
Forecasts and summary statistics NLT SAT evening.
Entry No. 878
Forecaster = Dryslot
Time = 12/31/2009 8:29:47 PM
CAR = 24
BGR = 20
PWM = 12
CON = 10
BTV = 8
BOS = 8
HYA = 10
ORH = 10
PVD = 1
BDR = 1
BDL = 1
ALB = 6
BGM = 4
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 2
MDT = 2
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 879
Forecaster = Dryslot
Time = 12/31/2009 8:37:11 PM
CAR = 24
BGR = 20
PWM = 12
CON = 10
BTV = 8
BOS = 8
HYA = 5
ORH = 10
PVD = 2
BDR = 3
BDL = 3
ALB = 6
BGM = 4
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 2
MDT = 2
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 880
Forecaster = MarkHofmann
Time = 1/1/2010 12:07:30 PM
CAR = 13
BGR = 16
PWM = 11
CON = 12
BTV = 12
BOS = 6
HYA = 7
ORH = 8
PVD = 0
BDR = 7
BDL = 6
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 881
Forecaster = Roger Smith
Time = 1/1/2010 2:05:38 PM
CAR = 18.5
BGR = 16.0
PWM = 12.2
CON = 8.5
BTV = 4.4
BOS = 6.0
HYA = 3.5
ORH = 3.3
PVD = 3.8
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 1.9
ALB = 3.0
BGM = 0.8
ISP = 0.5
JFK = 0.4
ABE = 0.1
MDT = .05
PHL = 0.1
ACY = 0.3
EWR = 1.1
BWI = 0.1
IAD = .05
DCA = .05
SBY = 0.1
RIC = 0.2
ORF = 0.3
RDU = 0.1
Comments = It's a tough one ... for western New England and eastern NY
it all depends on how far the low actually backs up ... taking a
conservative approach in general here (except in Maine, huge potential
there).
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 882
Forecaster = dryslot
Time = 1/1/2010 2:26:43 PM
CAR = 8
BGR = 13
PWM = 10
CON = 4
BTV = 8
BOS = 5
HYA = 6
ORH = 4
PVD = 3
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 5
BGM = 1
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 883
Forecaster = defman27
Time = 1/1/2010 2:49:43 PM
CAR = 21.5
BGR = 20
PWM = 11.5
CON = 8.5
BTV = 11.25
BOS = 4.5
HYA = 3
ORH = 4.5
PVD = 3.25
BDR = 2
BDL = 4
ALB = 5
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = .25
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = .25
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 884
Forecaster = herb@maws
Time = 1/1/2010 5:59:06 PM
CAR = 11
BGR = 15
PWM = 13
CON = 12
BTV = 10
BOS = 8
HYA = 9
ORH = 7
PVD = 4
BDR = 1
BDL = 3.5
ALB = 2.5
BGM = 1.5
ISP = 0.5
JFK = 0.5
ABE = 0.01
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0.3
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Contest #2
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 885
Forecaster = Dryslot
Time = 1/1/2010 8:35:00 PM
CAR = 12
BGR = 13
PWM = 12
CON = 6
BTV = 10
BOS = 7
HYA = 6
ORH = 8
PVD = 6
BDR = 1
BDL = 4
ALB = 4
BGM = 2
ISP = 1
JFK = 0.5
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 886
Forecaster = wxfox51
Time = 1/1/2010 9:21:32 PM
CAR = 12.2
BGR = 13.1
PWM = 9.2
CON = 3.4
BTV = 7.1
BOS = 6.2
HYA = 1.8
ORH = 5.8
PVD = 5.4
BDR = 0.2
BDL = 2.1
ALB = 0.9
BGM = 3.4
ISP = 0.2
JFK = 0.05
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0.05
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 887
Forecaster = millersville_bauers
Time = 1/1/2010 9:34:59 PM
CAR = 15.9
BGR = 14.2
PWM = 11.9
CON = 9.7
BTV = 13.0
BOS = 8.3
HYA = 7.0
ORH = 7.5
PVD = 7.2
BDR = 1.1
BDL = 4.8
ALB = 2.2
BGM = 4.2
ISP = 0.6
JFK = 0.4
ABE = 0.1
MDT = 0.1
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0.05
IAD = 0.05
DCA = 0.05
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 888
Forecaster = snowman
Time = 1/1/2010 9:48:59 PM
CAR = 12.5
BGR = 11
PWM = 7.5
CON = 6.5
BTV = 4.5
BOS = 2.5
HYA = 4
ORH = 4.5
PVD = 2
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 2
ALB = 3.5
BGM = 3
ISP = .5
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 889
Forecaster = weatherT
Time = 1/1/2010 9:51:20 PM
CAR = 17
BGR = 22
PWM = 14
CON = 8
BTV = 11
BOS = 10
HYA = 8
ORH = 3.5
PVD = 6.5
BDR = 1
BDL = 2
ALB = 4.4
BGM = 2.5
ISP = 1.2
JFK = .2
ABE = 0.05
MDT = 0.05
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 890
Forecaster = ilibov
Time = 1/1/2010 10:05:01 PM
CAR = 14.4
BGR = 19.7
PWM = 12.6
CON = 9.2
BTV = 11.5
BOS = 7.5
HYA = 6.2
ORH = 7.5
PVD = 5.3
BDR = 1.2
BDL = 3.4
ALB = 3.4
BGM = 3.4
ISP = 1.1
JFK = 0.75
ABE = .05
MDT = .05
PHL = .5
ACY = .5
EWR = .75
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 891
Forecaster = TQ
Time = 1/1/2010 10:10:01 PM
CAR = 12
BGR = 18
PWM = 16
CON = 9
BTV = 7
BOS = 10
HYA = 14
ORH = 8
PVD = 9
BDR = .05
BDL = 1.5
ALB = 1.5
BGM = 0
ISP = .05
JFK = .05
ABE = .05
MDT = 0
PHL = .05
ACY = 0
EWR = .05
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Champagne
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 892
Forecaster = Newa2010
Time = 1/1/2010 10:18:42 PM
CAR = 12.0
BGR = 16.0
PWM = 13.0
CON = 9.5
BTV = 10.0
BOS = 8.5
HYA = 6.8
ORH = 7.5
PVD = 7.5
BDR = 0.05
BDL = 3.0
ALB = 1.8
BGM = 1.4
ISP = 0.05
JFK = 0.05
ABE = 0
MDT = 0.05
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0.05
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 893
Forecaster = Mitchel Volk
Time = 1/1/2010 10:20:27 PM
CAR = 8
BGR = 12
PWM = 12
CON = 8
BTV = 8
BOS = 8
HYA = 8
ORH = 8
PVD = 4
BDR = 3
BDL = 3
ALB = 3
BGM = 1
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Strange storm
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 894
Forecaster = donsutherland1
Time = 1/1/2010 10:27:58 PM
CAR = 7.5
BGR = 13.5
PWM = 8.0
CON = 6.0
BTV = 9.0
BOS = 8.0
HYA = 7.4
ORH = 6.0
PVD = 5.6
BDR = 1.0
BDL = 2.5
ALB = 3.5
BGM = 2.0
ISP = 1.5
JFK = 0.05
ABE = 0.05
MDT = 0.05
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0.05
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Happy New Year to all.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 895
Forecaster = Donald Rosenfeld
Time = 1/1/2010 10:29:27 PM
CAR = 7
BGR = 13
PWM = 10
CON = 5.5
BTV = 7.75
BOS = 7
HYA = 7
ORH = 3.5
PVD = 2.5
BDR = 2.0
BDL = 2.25
ALB = 2.5
BGM = 1.5
ISP = 1
JFK = .75
ABE = .3
MDT = .1
PHL = .01
ACY = .01
EWR = .75
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 896
Forecaster = Shillelagh
Time = 1/1/2010 10:31:09 PM
CAR = 7
BGR = 16
PWM = 9
CON = 8
BTV = 13
BOS = 6.5
HYA = 5
ORH = 5
PVD = 4
BDR = 2
BDL = 2
ALB = 3
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 1
JFK = 0.05
ABE = 0.05
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0.05
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Ocean Bomb -- No Snow for Philly
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 897
Forecaster = Raven
Time = 1/1/2010 10:31:21 PM
CAR = 16.0
BGR = 14.5
PWM = 11.5
CON = 9.5
BTV = 11.0
BOS = 8.5
HYA = 7.2
ORH = 6.6
PVD = 4.5
BDR = .5
BDL = 3.0
ALB = 3.0
BGM = 3.5
ISP = 2.5
JFK = 0.5
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0.5
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
TQ
Journeyman...and 10 Senior forecasters issued 239 station forecasts
for this winter/s second contest snow storm.
Forecasts at the Contest web site (http://www.newx-forecasts.com/)
Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST SUN 03-JAN-10.
Preliminary storm-total snowfall totals will be posted the evening of
MON 04-JAN-10.
TQ
NEWxSFC home page:
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Web log:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/
Shillelagh
on 1/2 and so far 15" on 1/3 w/ more coming till midnight. Wow.
We're at 25" IMBY...
NEWxSFC
Can't believe the brick of a forecast I issued.
Spent the afternoon and evening brewing beer
instead of looking at charts.
Progs look promising next couple weeks.
TQ
CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins.
No specific report for HYA. Interpolated between Chatham (5") and
Marston Mills (3.5") from BOX PNS bulletin.
Six new daily records.
SAT...02-JAN-10
CAR - 8.5" (5.8"; 1972)
BGR - 12.1" (9.1"; 1995)
BTV - 19" (7.5"; 1947)
ISP - 3" (1"; 1987)
SUN...03-JAN-10
BTV - 16.4" (7.7"; 1996)
ISP - 2.1" (0.9"; 1988)
Please report errors and a link to the correct data.
Final results and storm summary Tuesday evening.
TQ
snowfall forecast contest with SUMSQ error of 570.6"...a 32%
improvement over the average SUMSQ error of 836". His Z-score was a
very strong -1.707.
Shillelagh also placed 1st for 'total absolute error' 47.7" (Z-score:
-1.600) and 2nd for 'average absolute error' with 2.51" per station
(19 stations forecast). He had the lowest station errors @BTV...JFK
and perfect forecasts @ABE...EWR.
Congratulations Shillelagh!
2nd Place: millersville_bauers* (SUMSQ error: 663.9"; Z-score: -1.107)
3rd Place: Raven (721.6"; -0.736)
Honorable Mention: Dryslot* (735.4; -0.647)
*Rookie
Full forecast verification and results summary at the Contest web site
(http://www.newx-forecasts.com/)
Shillelagh
Thanks again TQ for the contest. Kind of hard to get to excited given
the huge error and small # of predictions...but i guess "best of
worst" is yet again better than "worst of best"...
BTW...we just passed the 40" mark since this little shindig got
going...
Fri 7.5
Sat 13.5
Sun 10.1
Mon 6.8
Tues prelim thru 9pm 3.0
Depth on ground: 24" at last reading, max was about 27" throughout the
event...this stuff is so powdery that there'll be massive shrinkage on
a day when the sun comes out and temps get back to near normal. If
that ever happens again.
Continued light LE Fake snow expected to continue thru this weekend w/
maybe some light synoptic 1-3" on Friday, associated w/ the bowling
ball. It may be fake, but 10" here and 10" there...eventually it adds
up to real snow!
NEWxSFC
My mistake was going with a 30% plus-up for fluff and deformation zone over coastal stations
that just never happened. HYA came in with ~3 yet out near the tip of Cape Cod...the 11" I
forecast for HYA was measured.
WTF with BTV? No one even came close nor did NWP remotely suggest those amounts.
Might have been sig forcing from upsloping flow.
I still have about 3" in a small pile nestled against the wood pile where the sun don't shine.
Really enjoying the cold snap at 37/77.
Ready for another round but as Cooper used to say..we have too much of a good thing
and storms are being supressed.
May be another SSW event starting...as the wrn CONUS ridge amps...
which would reach Ground-0 in early/mid-FEB. Almost had a warming soon after the
Greenland block b/came established but the vertical propagation of the wave dissapated
around 100 mb past few days without causing the PV to split in two.
NEWxSFC home page:
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Web log:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/
From: "Shillelagh" <sha...@twcny.rr.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 05, 2010 9:19 PM
To: "ne_wx" <ne...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [ne_wx] Re: 11th Annual NEWxSFC - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts
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