Woolly Caterpillar Forecasting Guide
TQ
In recent weeks, a spate of news articles have appeared about the woolly bear
caterpillar and its legendary ability to foretell the upcoming winter based on
the color and width of its black and orange stripes. With so much good
information scattered across so many sources, there appeared to be a need to
compile the forecasting rules. This handy forecasting guide can be printed and
keep inside your coat pocket for easy reference.
The Woolly Bear Caterpillars Among Us
There is more than one kind of woolly bear caterpillar. The one you use when
forecasting is the banded woolly caterpillar, which becomes the Isabella moth
(Pyrrharctia Isabella) in the spring. Pictures of the caterpillar and moth can
be seen @
Image of caterpillar
http://www.enature.com/fieldguide/showSpecies_LI.asp?imageID=17975
Image of moth
http://www.enature.com/fieldguide/showSpecies_LI.asp?imageID=18014
Image of both
http://facweb.furman.edu/~snyderjohn/tatum/335-336.htm
Science is Skeptical
It should come as no surprise that entomologists pooh-pooh the idea that banded
woolly bear caterpillars can predict future events. These naysayers claim
variations in band color and width are evidence of a worm/s age and the fall
weather conditions when the worm reached maturity. Worms exhibiting more black
than orange are older and grew in wet conditions. Worms exhibiting less black
than orange are younger and grew in dry conditions.
Are the Bug Boys Right?
It/s possible the development and application of this folklore methodology is a
crude form of persistence forecasting. Caterpillars with wide (narrow) black
bands matured under wet (dry) weather conditions, which would likely be
associated with below (above) normal temperatures. If fall temperatures are
colder (warmer) than normal, then a persistence forecast for the upcoming
winter will also be for colder (warmer) than normal temperatures. Some banded
woolly bear caterpillar forecast rules, based on large black bands, call for
'harsh' winter conditions. If 'harsh' includes precipitation as well as cold
temperatures, then a persistence forecast would expect a continuation of wet
fall conditions throughout the winter months.
How to Forecast with Banded Woolly Bear Caterpillars
Long-range winter forecasters who use the banded wooly bear caterpillar look at
the width of the black stripes on the worm/s front and back and the ratio of
black-to-orange. With that information in hand, the following forecasting
rules apply:
If the black stripes are narrow - defined as less than half the worm/s length -
then the winter will be mild.
If the black stripes are thick - defined as more than half the worm/s length,
then the winter will be cold or harsh with harsh being undefined.
Is That All There Is?
Some banded woolly bear caterpillar forecasters can tease out additional
information by looking out the difference between the front and back black
bands:
If the front band is larger than the back band, then the first part winter will
be colder or harsher than the last half.
If the front band is merely dipped in black, that portends a mild first half,
whereas if the back band is merely dipped in black, that portends an early
spring.
If the caterpillar is mostly black, then winter will get cold early and there
will be a lot of precipitation.
If the caterpillar is all black, then the winter/s snowfall will be light.
If small brown spots are present, then the winter/s dominant precipitation type
will be drizzle.
---
- T Q -
Start every day off with a smile...and get it over with.
-- W.C. Fields --
Scott L. Hadley
>
>In recent weeks, a spate of news articles have appeared about the woolly bear
>caterpillar and its legendary ability to foretell the upcoming winter based on
>the color and width of its black and orange stripes. With so much good
>information scattered across so many sources, there appeared to be a need to
>compile the forecasting rules. This handy forecasting guide can be printed and
>keep inside your coat pocket for easy reference.
>
A leading University of Maine entomologist (Dearborn) who I vaguely
remember from my time in the forestry school, apparently does take
this method of prognosis seriously. And, (wouldn''t you know it) a
mild winter is in store, at least for most of Maine----
Poop
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and attempted to see if there is any statistical correlation. Assuming data
have been collected, it'd be simple enough to do. I would think it'd be
useful to pool time series and cross-sectional data and to have regional
dummy variables as well.
"Scott L. Hadley" <plan...@midmaine.com> wrote in message
news:g3jiovobgdmh5vqck...@4ax.com...
TQ
>A leading University of Maine entomologist (Dearborn) who I vaguely
>remember from my time in the forestry school, apparently does take
>this method of prognosis seriously. And, (wouldn''t you know it) a
>mild winter is in store, at least for most of Maine----
Is this the guy?
Entomologist predicts mild winter
"A retired state entomologist from Mount Vernon is forecasting a mild winter
for Maine and basing his prediction on the red-and-black woolly bear
caterpillar.
Dick Dearborn has been collecting the caterpillars in recent weeks and
measuring the red band around the middle of their bodies. According to
folklore, a mild winter is in store when the red band makes up more than
one-third of the caterpillar's body.
Dearborn says the red bands on the caterpillars this fall are wider than
normal, meaning a relatively mild winter ahead."
Source:
http://www.wmtw.com/Global/story.asp?S=1479043&nav=7k6rIU6W
In S VA, the WBCs indicate a mild winter (orange band > black bands), with the
first half being colder than the last half (front black band > back black
band).
Scott L. Hadley
in the late 70's. Scientist. Doesn't seem likely someone like him
would go for this, but for as long as he's been around, he may have
been able to correlate winters with banding. Now, if only we knew the
cause and effect.
>
>Is this the guy?
>
>Entomologist predicts mild winter
>
>"A retired state entomologist from Mount Vernon is forecasting a mild winter
>for Maine and basing his prediction on the red-and-black woolly bear
>caterpillar.
>
>Dick Dearborn has been collecting the caterpillars in recent weeks and
>measuring the red band around the middle of their bodies. According to
>folklore, a mild winter is in store when the red band makes up more than
>one-third of the caterpillar's body.
>
>Dearborn says the red bands on the caterpillars this fall are wider than
>normal, meaning a relatively mild winter ahead."
>
>Source:
>http://www.wmtw.com/Global/story.asp?S=1479043&nav=7k6rIU6W
>
>In S VA, the WBCs indicate a mild winter (orange band > black bands), with the
>first half being colder than the last half (front black band > back black
>band).
>
>
>---
> - T Q -
>
> Start every day off with a smile...and get it over with.
> -- W.C. Fields --
>
>
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