14 day wind forecast
Ann P.
now..does anyone have something to look at...I have a HUGE event June
8-9..thanks..Annie
www.kingofthecape.com
Weathersage
I don't have a link for you but I can offer this for your splendid
looking event. The winds should continue to be strong for your event
as they have been for weeks this spring. Comparing to last year when
the model I use featured the same conditions, you could also expect ,
a drop in temperatures and clouds. Chance of showers more likely on
the 7th. Do you normally draw a huge viewing crowd?
Carolyn
>
>
Joseph Bartlo
> I don't have a link for you but I can offer this for your splendid
> looking event. The winds should continue to be strong for your event
> as they have been for weeks this spring. Comparing to last year when
> the model I use featured the same conditions, you could also expect ,
> a drop in temperatures and clouds. Chance of showers more likely on
> the 7th. Do you normally draw a huge viewing crowd?
You have the same chance of being right about this now as climatology does -
don't try to dupe anyone here.
Joseph Bartlo
have (as opposed to within a week or more so a couple days in advance, for
which there is actually significant forecast skill) ?
Joseph Bartlo
> One thing is for sure, a dope like you can't be easily duped!
I am not a dope.
Ann P.
as it is SE or SW..Annie
www.kingofthecape.com
"Weathersage" <caro...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:sob4fusdocphp4efl...@4ax.com...
Ann P.
grouches...play nice..
Annie
"jack" <nos...@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:B917DA03.F1C7%nos...@nospam.com...
> On 5/27/02 11:29 AM, in article 3CF242E6...@enter.net, "Joseph
Bartlo"
Joseph Bartlo
> Oh come now, it's like a placebo..it gives me hope..don't be such
> grouches...play nice..
I was not being a grouch - I was simply informing you (lest you were unaware)
that there is no skill forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in advance.
Carolyn's gonna try convincing you otherwise, but she (like many people) will
try to make you remember the forecasts which happened to be right and forget
about the others (or explain them away somehow). She won't show you a rigorous
analysis with verifications showing any accuracy greater than chance.
Donald Rosenfeld
The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
make it a miss.
Hope your event turns out ok.
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/f300sfc.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/f300.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f300.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f300.gif
Joseph Bartlo
> The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
> surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
> Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
>
> Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
> considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
> winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
>
> There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
> region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
> make it a miss.
The operational MRF from last night shows W-NW flow backing to SW behind a
storm system to the NE and occluding NEward. Yet as I said, 12-14 days in
advance is very uncertain - that may be a little better than climatology or
chance, but probably not much so on the average.
Donald Rosenfeld
Joseph Bartlo
> http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/STATS/STATS.html
>
> http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/para/index.html
>
> http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/text/wind_na.html
>
> http://lnx29.wwb.noaa.gov/maps/mrfavn.html
Fine, but anything specifically showing wind speed & direction errors for
days 12-14, 7-14 ?
Donald Rosenfeld
Donald Rosenfeld
Joseph Bartlo
> http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/DISTRIBUTION/wd23gw/xoapr02/xAp02.htm
Zonal mean wind errors are better than nothing I suppose - though again what
we want is 2 m above surface winds or some such thing at Cape Cod. A forecast
for this should consider how local effects such as the sea breeze might
modify the large scale winds - though Cape Cod juts out, so it may not be
so significant.
From the event page, it seems that almost any weather is acceptable - I am
trying to think of a regime which would cause calm winds or nearly so -
though the sea breeze may prevent that even there.
Donald Rosenfeld
I'm about to go to sleep after listening to Robert Caro on Cspan-2 for 3
hours. A great man.
but, to briefly comment:
I generally, personally, accept that the mrf has skill throughout the
period. Skill to me is to suggest the broad pattern and not to be held
accountable for a whatever miss of 100 or even 200 miles on the longer
range.
Additionally, even if there were no surface representation I could
derive/discern temps, precip, clouds, winds, humidity etc because the
500 speaketh volumes.
This particular forecast is pretty straight forward because the pattern
is so pronounced. With weak patterns then you are correct, it is more
risky-....but, even in a weak pattern temps and low speed winds can be
predicted.
In closing:
I believe in perturbed and ensembles.
Joseph Bartlo
> I generally, personally, accept that the mrf has skill throughout the
> period. Skill to me is to suggest the broad pattern and not to be held
> accountable for a whatever miss of 100 or even 200 miles on the longer
> range.
I agree there skill, and it is not even an opinion - you can simply compare
with climatology. Yet the type of skill we want for a wind surfing event at
11-13 days ?
> Additionally, even if there were no surface representation I could
> derive/discern temps, precip, clouds, winds, humidity etc because the
> 500 speaketh volumes.
I think this is pushing things a bit - there are certain characteristics,
but the specifics (again, what concerns us here) are very difficult to derive
from that.
> This particular forecast is pretty straight forward because the pattern
> is so pronounced. With weak patterns then you are correct, it is more
> risky-....but, even in a weak pattern temps and low speed winds can be
> predicted.
I don't completely agree with this - depending what you consider "pronounced".
The operational GGEM & MRF do not particularly agree - I think primarily
because of biases. The MRF is more progressive (as usual) - though sometimes
right with fast-moving systems, and the cold bias shows in the trof aloft it
develops day 11 :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_500_240s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_500_264s.gif
while the GGEM seems to be forecasting a quite zonal pattern after the weak
trof/Low system over the NE day 10 :
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_240_4pan.gif
The consequence is a stronger Low on the day 10 MRF :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_240s.gif
which has consequences the subsequent days (i.e., days of the event). Namely
the trof aloft strengthening to the W-SW :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_500_264s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_500_288s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_500_312s.gif
and consequently a significant cold frontal passage PM the 7th :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_264s.gif
and a zone with weak pressure gradient AM (and possibly much of daytime) the
8th :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_276s.gif
The High to the N strengthens and causes E-SE winds ahead of the system to
the W (associated with the Low/trof aloft) :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_288s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_312s.gif
Thus the forecast taking the MRF verbatim would be for gusty SW winds much
of the 7th, shifting to NW with the front late PM, then weakening while
veering to NE-E AM the 8th - maybe light winds much of day :) though the
sea breezes may augment any easterly component. The winds would then
strengthen and veer to E-SE PM the 8th & continue so the 9th as a warm front
approaches from the SW.
The GGEM does not seem to agree with this, though some extrapolation is
necessary. As mentioned, doesn't seem like the Low/trof to the W would
be develop nearly so much, and the scenario using that may be NW breezes
behind day 10's Low moving NE veering to S-SW ahead of a system further
W with no strong Low to the N causing an easterly wind component.
As I mentioned, the actual scenario will probably significantly differ from
both of these - so I still say difficult to say much with certainty now.
> In closing:
>
> I believe in perturbed and ensembles.
Though I see the possible benefits of doing this, the idea of corrupting
analyses to get a different forecast never did set well with me. Thus I
like the operationals. As I mentioned here before, RMS error gives a big
advantage to the ensembles for medium range because they forecast solutions
with weaker systems more agreeable with climatology. Use linear error,
and the operationals would probably be much better.
Joseph Bartlo
> The GGEM does not seem to agree with this, though some extrapolation is
> necessary. As mentioned, doesn't seem like the Low/trof to the W would
> be develop nearly so much, and the scenario using that may be NW breezes
> behind day 10's Low moving NE veering to S-SW ahead of a system further
> W with no strong Low to the N causing an easterly wind component.
NW backing to S-SW.
Donald Rosenfeld
Ann P.
100%..just an idea..thanks all..
Annie
:)
"Donald Rosenfeld" <rose...@attbi.com> wrote in message
news:3CF395F4...@attbi.com...
Joseph Bartlo
is rather consistent with the previous run - a rather weak Low moving to the
NE with a cold frontal passage PM the June 7 :
http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_240_4pan.gif
If this verifies (and it is becoming more likely now IMO), WNW winds would
follow this. The important feature though, is the High over the Great Lakes.
This is not to the N as the MRF was showing. Extrapolating, the High may
weaken while passing just S of the Cape Cod area late June 8 & June 9.
Quite possibly a weak pressure gradient would be over the region PM June 8
& AM June 9, S-SW breezes perhaps developing then.
Not being from the area, I don't know how significant the sea breeze typically
is off Cape Cod, though if it is significant, it would tend to cancel the
W-NW gradient winds - especially with any Coriolis turning.
Joseph Bartlo
differs - forecasting winds veering from SE to SW during the period, and
certainly strong enough :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_240s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_264s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/mrf/00/images/mrf_slp_288s.gif
There'll probably be many more changes in these before the event, though the
GGEM is reasonable to 10 days more often than some would probably think.
Ann P.
Wind Direction, Speed, and temps..
The winner gets a KOTC t shirt..
Annie
www.kingofthecape.com
"Joseph Bartlo" <jba...@enter.net> wrote in message
news:3CF309A8...@enter.net...
Michael Moriarty
74degrees(Sat.)
M4S
Joseph Bartlo
> ok, how bout this weekend??
>
> Wind Direction, Speed, and temps..
>
> The winner gets a KOTC t shirt..
Still a bit early to be confident of much - though appears a front will pass
Thursday then a High pass the region FRI & SAT. There are many possibilities
which primarily depend on the track of the High - which I think will be
slightly S of Cape Cod early AM Saturday.
I don't know when the latest time is for a forecast to be considered, but I
figured I should post now - nor do I know how the forecasts will be judged.
Friday : Clear early AM, mainly sunny day with a few cumulus clouds. Wind
direction variable from W-N, generally 5-10 kt. - some gusts as high as 15
kt., maximum midday. Some puffs of wind from E during afternoon & evening
with winds weakening. Min/max temperatures 48/66.
Saturday : Clear night, sunny day with a few cumulus clouds. Winds veering
from NE to SE - 0-5 kt. during morning, 3-8 kt., a few lulls & some gusts to
12 kt. during afternoon and generally from E or ESE - diminishing & SE late
afternoon & evening. Min/Max temperatures 46/66.
Sunday : Clear night, a few cumulus & scattered high cloudiness during day.
Winds veering from SSE to SW - strengthening from 4 kt. during morning to
11 kt. with frequent gusts as high as 18 kt. during afternoon. Min/max
temperatures 49/72.
Joseph Bartlo
> Oh!!! Good God, if Joseph Bartlo doesn't win the T-Shirt he will scream like
> a cat who had it's tail stepped on! Please, give him the shirt and tell him
> his forecast was perfect even if it snows, and the winds a 90mph! The last
> time he lost a contest he screamed, and screamed for weeks about pests,
> enemies, and how people are against him.
No, last time I played a game a pest bothered me for not winning again and
didn't bother other people who did worse. You are a pest also. No one played
the game I offered because they didn't feel they had a chance. So I won that
one - I can't help it if no one wants to participate.
So cut your crap also, pest.
Joseph Bartlo
> No, no, no! You claimed fraud.
I suspect it - but that is an entirely different issue. The relevant concern
for you is not being a pest bothering me about the time I don't do as well and
forgetting about the time I won. You'll continue doing this because you are
jealous of me, are always looking for anything to use against me, and basically
hate my guts - but no, I won game #5 - the first one I played including more
than 20 forecasters, and no one would play the game I offered. I play other
people's game, no one plays mine. This is what I'll continue saying.
> No one played your silly game because it was complicated, ridiculous, and
> involved numerous observations that most of us didn't have time for.
No - it is a true measure of forecast skill instead of a pot shot - something
you know nothing about because you know almost nothing about weather - the
topic which is supposed to be discussed here.
Post to a group where your crap is more appreciated - you're only starting
arguments and making a dummy of yourself here.
> Also no one trusted you to run an honest contest.
Then why should I trust anyone else ?
> You even said you were going to put up a cash prize, then when your mother
> wouldn't let you, you backed off!
Don't give me your crap. I do what i want to do. Again, you hate my guts
and try to say the worst thing about me - hoping in your dumb mind that
another pest like you might also believe it. I really don't care what pests
think - especially those who can't even come close to doing what I do.
> Just face it, it was a stupid idea and a stupid contest.
What are your qualifications to support this comment ?
> Also you didn't WIN it because it never happened.
Yes - which even makes a better statement.
> It must be nice to blame all of your failures on "pests" and "enemies in
> high places"!
I don't blame my few failures on them necessarily - ad I am successful much,
much more - again, something you don't want people to know. You'll continue
reminding people of the one game I didn't win - the one thing that wasn't
quite right because *you are the person jealous of me* and what I typically
do accomplish.
Pest.
Joseph Bartlo
> No, no, no! You claimed fraud.
Don't give me any crap. I looked at weather data consistently for more than
20 years and I know when something looks suspicious - when a station reports
much more precipitation than a previous period and much less snow - with
more intense radar echoes over them and temperatures approximately the same
(thus it wasn't likely a change of the type of flakes). Again, you don't
know enough to say much about this, so shut up.
Joseph Bartlo
> Yeah, everyone conspired against you! ROTFLOL!
We don't need discussion of this here - you start the arguments and always
come back for more after I refute your bs.
> You're nothing but a cry-baby!
I am alot more than that. Your nothing but a pest though.
Joseph Bartlo
> Who cares what you say?
Who cares what you say ?
> Everyone congratulated you for winning. Some of us even urged you to play
> the game in the first place. Of course you turned on everyone who tried to
> be nice to you. You weren't even a graceful winner! The second contest you
> played you demanded special treatment (entering late) then cried that you
> had to rush the forecast. Then you claimed you were cheated. What a crock!
> You're just a big Baby Huey with a personality disorder!
You analysis of this situation does not interest me either, nor does your
opinion of my personality.
I did not demand special treatment for #6 - I asked TQ if he would accept the
forecast because my ISP would not let me post my forecast before 12:00 ! There
are such things as ISP & newsreader problems. Yet because you hate ny guts
(and *don't* ever try to tell me any different - only a person hating another
person's guts constantly pesters that person) you always try to find the
explanation which makes me appear as bad as possible. Again, it would be
better that if instead of constantly pestering me you'd find something
constructive to do.
Regarding the observations for some cities for #6 - yes, I am still suspicious
of them, and even if you post every day for a year criticizing my criticism,
it won't change my mind one bit. That's the thing I find most funny actually
- you actually think anything you post here changes one thing I think or do !
> As long as your mother lets you! LOL
This is between me & her - you nothing about our relationship, what I do
here, etc. All you think you know is I have cats doing all kind of ridiculous
things - and you are wrong about that. What a dope.
> I read the rules you posted! Like everyone else who read the rules I thought
> it was stupid! Guess what... It was stupid! That's why no one played!
> Besides who wants to play a game with a cry-baby and a sore loser?
I saw no one say it is stupid but you - and you know almost nothing about this
also.
No one played because it requires a commitment and is thorough, and there is
little or no reward. I can't do much about that.
> Once a loser, always a loser! You're not even a gracious winner!
When I am a winner I am not a loser though - you were nothing but a loser
each time you played. Don't give me any crap of being a gracious winner
either - when I look in the record books, I see nothing listed whether some
person or team was gracious in victory or defeat.
Again, why do you tell me your opinions about this ? Well - maybe some other
people may care.
> I haven't even mentioned the contest you lost. What I mentioned is the way
> your cried and whined about losing. What's to be jealous of, a 40ish year
> old underachiever who lives with his mother and the cats? Yeah right!
Neither do you know how old I am. You tell me what you are jealous of - that
I have 2 college degrees, that I am younger than 40, healthy, and very strong,
that I won many forecast contests and other games, that I shot under par on an
easy golf course for 9 holes, hit a few long drives, and regularly make more
than 100 consecutive balls - 150 - on an 8-foot pool table I am admittedly
familiar with (do you realize how many people can do this ?), that I make more
than a forecast a day and they are very accurate ? You tell me, pest.
> Whacko! - Go take care of your cats!
I have no cats, nor can offer one bit of credible proof of this - yet a dummy
such as you persists in this belief.
Joseph Bartlo
> OK, you're a big fat cry-baby, and a whiner! Is that more accurate?
No - all wrong. I am not even that big.
Ann P.
recess..then I realized u r just joking..totally funny..
You made my day..Annie
"jack" <nos...@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:B9231825.F408%nos...@nospam.com...
> On 6/5/02 12:38 AM, in article 3CFD87A8...@enter.net, "Joseph Bartlo"
> <jba...@enter.net> wrote:
>
> >> You're nothing but a cry-baby!
> >
> > I am alot more than that.
Joseph Bartlo
> you guys are kidding right...for a minute I thought I was in a first grade
> recess..then I realized u r just joking..totally funny..
>
> You made my day..Annie
Glad I could help - and my forecast for the long weekend still appears very
good - though maybe a bit warmer. Still time for the models to be wrong
though and have SW winds with the High further S, etc.
I don't start arguing here, so I resent being put in the same category the
same way anyone defending themself against some sort of attack may.
Joseph Bartlo
> What a shame, of course you've never gone out with a girl so I guess it
> doesn't matter
Again, in your sick and twisted mind, you interpret things the wrong way.
Joseph Bartlo
> You don't let them end either.
The arguments will only end if you choose not to start them.
> Now go feed the damn cats and shut up!!!!
I have no cats and I'm not shutting up. You do.
Joseph Bartlo
> Good God I'm getting as bad as you, responding to myself!
Don't give us your bullshit here. I contribute a great amount to the valuable
discussion here and you contribute almost none. Look at the discussions about
the tropical cyclone that aint forming or the wind forecast which appears very
good now for 3-4 days in advance. THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT TO DISTRACT PEOPLE
FROM SEEING. YOU WANT TO TELL LIES ABOUT ME AND MAKE SOME PEOPLE BELIEVE
THAT INSTEAD OF THE TRUTH THAT I AM AN EXCELLENT METEOROLOGIST. THAT CLEARLY
BOTHERS YOU.
You can say that until your blue in the face, but what I'm thinking about is
that I forecast 1.61 inches of precipitation for Mount Pocono yesterday and
we got 1.63. Why don't I ever see you post and tell people about that ?
Because you are a sad old man who hates my guts. Too bad - just don't bother
the group with your hate.
Neither will I stop making corrections and additions to my posts if they are
necessary - what you and some other pests call "talking to myself". That is
not talking to myself, it is posting to a discussion group. You are all a
bunch of pests & dummies.
> I was thinking perhaps you had a few bucks to spend in a CAT house! I'll bet
> that sounds like fun to you!
>
> Go for it Joseph, you only go around once!
Cut your crap.
Joseph Bartlo
> You said it, not me!
I was talking about me, not one part of me.
You have an amazing mind Jack - though not an enviable one - you can always
find a way of changing what someone says to make it something else.
Joseph Bartlo
> Why don't you re-read that sentence! Are you admitting that instead of being
> an excellent meteorologist something else is the truth? That is the first
> thing you've said that makes sense.
It is clear what I said - except for a person who cannot understand what is
he plainly told because he always wants to believe something else. E.g., like
when I tell you I have no cats, yet you persist with this belief - even though
you never them (because they don't exist).
Joseph Bartlo
> You do have cats, in fact you have several of them! Stop denying it!
I hope I am not the only one here thinking it's strange that another person
who probably never saw me nor where I live adamantly trying to convince me
that I have cats. Regardless of how strange, it don't belong on ne.weather .
Joseph Bartlo
> E.g., like when I tell you I have no cats, yet you persist with this belief -
> even though you never them (because they don't exist).
^
saw
Joseph Bartlo
> When did you forecast the 1.61 inches of rain, you clearly didn't forecast
> that on Monday or Tuesday or on Wednesday AM.
I forecast it early AM Wednesday :
http://www.enter.net/~jbartlo/6-5.htm
My forecasts prior to that were for less rain - though increasing the amount
each day.
> Nowcasting is much more accurate then forecasting.
That was more than a day before most of the rain fell (which I though would
be earlier than it was).
> Besides who verified your readings?
I take my readings and don't care whether you believe them.
> Not you, you do it all.
Yes - it is great to be multi-talented.
> You know what Joseph, I think you skew the observations to make your self
> look and feel good. Prove you don't by leaving your forecasts on the site
> until after the event you are forecasting, and allow someone else to measure
> the obs.
I also place forecasts for Ann Arbor, MI at my site :
http://www.enter.net/~jbartlo/arbfor.htm
and use ARB for verification. I made a forecast for this weekend's
windsurfing event on Cape Cod and certainly am not there to verify it -
though it appears quite accurate with NE breezes of 5-10 kt and
temperatures of low 60's generally reported in the area.
I make plenty of forecasts I don't verify - so don't give me this crap.
> If you can forecast ALMOST EXACTLY for your backyard, why can't you forecast
> with the same accuracy for another nearby location that has an independent
> observer.
I don't always forecast almost exactly for my location. Today I expected a
maximum temperature of 73, and it'll probably only be 69. I overestimated
this about the same amount I did for Cape Cod today. Ann Arbor will probably
be better than that.
> You can't because you aren't that damn good.
My verifications show otherwise - they show I am excellent. You'll try to
convince me otherwise and never will unless you can organize a comprehensive
competition such as that I proposed here and I do consistently as poorly as
I did consistently good in those I did participate in.
Joseph Bartlo
> One of the sure signs of insanity is talking to yourself and then answering
> yourself. You are a master of both!
I don't talk to myself - I post to a newsgroup. You are truly amazing - you
twist around everything I say and believe something different and cannot
correctly recognize anything - almost everything you say is incorrect - and
very little of it is on-topic here. The mere fact that you bother the group
with your crap indicates that neither do you care much about them.
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> THIS IS WHAT YOU WANT TO DISTRACT PEOPLE
> FROM SEEING. YOU WANT TO TELL LIES ABOUT ME AND MAKE SOME PEOPLE BELIEVE
> THAT INSTEAD OF THE TRUTH THAT I AM AN EXCELLENT METEOROLOGIST.
What is the TRUTH Joseph?
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
I am just playing your own words back to you, it's not my fault that you
don't think or write clearly.
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> My verifications show otherwise - they show I am excellent. You'll try to
> convince me otherwise and never will unless you can organize a comprehensive
> competition such as that I proposed here and I do consistently as poorly as
> I did consistently good in those I did participate in.
If you are "excellent" why don't you have a job? Oh, I know enemies!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> I hope I am not the only one here thinking it's strange that another person
> who probably never saw me nor where I live adamantly trying to convince me
> that I have cats. Regardless of how strange, it don't belong on ne.weather .
Joseph, you had it on your web site about having cats. You posted a message
here (several months ago) admitting you have cats. Why are you denying it?
What difference does it make? Some folks have cats, some have dogs, some
have gerbils. Do you have gerbils?
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> I don't talk to myself - I post to a newsgroup.
A lot of people say you talk to yourself. Sometimes you respond 5 or 6 times
to your same post.
Now don't answer every post, go feed the cats, check your rain gauge or
chase the lady next door around the hedge. I am tired of responding to your
constant whining. Why don't you buy yourself a copy of MAXIMUM, sneak it
past Momma, and enjoy the pictures!
Gary M
An allusion to Pilatte and Jesus or just a coincidence? If I recall
correctly you turn and walk away without listening to the answser ;)
Joseph Bartlo
> I am just playing your own words back to you, it's not my fault that you
> don't think or write clearly.
What I wrote is clear - misunderstanding is your problem.
Joseph Bartlo
> Joseph, you had it on your web site about having cats.
As I said before, maybe even after I stop making putting forecasts on my WWW
site (if that happens), I'll still say I make them and consider it forecasting
experience. This is the logic (lack of it) you use when you think I have cats
because once (almost 2 years ago now) we had a cat - so don't complain to me
about not providing a special explanation of anything else so Jack Ziegler can
understand it (when others understand it either way).
> You posted a message here (several months ago) admitting you have cats.
No - you interprets "you think I have cats I don't have" as "I have cats".
A person can take any few words out of context and say that is what a person
said.
More importantly, this all has no relevance here, so why do YOU mention it ?
Joseph Bartlo
> Now don't answer every post, go feed the cats, check your rain gauge or
> chase the lady next door around the hedge.
I am answering every post and working on my next forecast - trying to improve
more.
You quit bothering me here.
Joseph Bartlo
> An allusion to Pilatte and Jesus or just a coincidence? If I recall
> correctly you turn and walk away without listening to the answser ;)
Well, being bothered on a newsgroup and being flogged are 2 different things -
yet I see the analogy with the questioning. Maybe you should as Jack though,
because when he takes the phrase "I have cats" out of a sentence and changes
the meaning, he is like so many ministers doing the same thing every Sunday ;)
Joseph Bartlo
> If you are "excellent" why don't you have a job? Oh, I know enemies!
I do have a job, but you don't want to believe that either. I never said most
people need a forecast which is typically more accurate than most others (and
sometimes less accurate) - some people do - but even then it may not be worth
paying for - especially when you can get it free more than once a day at a WWW
site.
Something you evidently don't understand is that employment does not equal
accuracy and vice versa. Accuracy is simply a measure of how close forecasts
are to what happens.
Joseph Bartlo
want to attract attention from : may forecast from Monday evening for Cape
Cod today was very accurate. I was not on West Dennis Beach and conditions
can vary around the region quite significantly, but here was my forecast :
Saturday : Clear night, sunny day with a few cumulus clouds. Winds veering
from NE to SE - 0-5 kt. during morning, 3-8 kt., a few lulls & some gusts to
12 kt. during afternoon and generally from E or ESE - diminishing & SE late
afternoon & evening. Min/Max temperatures 46/66.
According to METAR's at HYA, CQX, & PVC, winds speed was a little more
consistent (i.e., not much lighter during morning than early afternoon)
and a bit stronger, yet they did diminish late afternoon & evening and
veered as expected - e.g., CQX :
KCQX 081752Z AUTO 03007KT 10SM CLR 14/08 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP267 T01440078 10144
20117 55003=
KCQX 081852Z AUTO 03007KT 10SM CLR 15/08 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP262 T01500078=
KCQX 081952Z AUTO 08009KT 10SM CLR 14/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP255 T01440072=
KCQX 082052Z AUTO 05005KT 10SM CLR 13/07 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP256 T01330067 55011=
KCQX 082152Z AUTO 09004KT 10SM CLR 13/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP255 T01330067=
KCQX 082252Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM CLR 12/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP254 T01220067=
KCQX 082352Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 11/08 A3027 RMK AO2 SLP252 T01110078 10150
20111 58004=
KCQX 090052Z AUTO 15004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP245 T01000083=
KCQX 090152Z AUTO 17004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP248 T01000083=
KCQX 090252Z AUTO 16005KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP244 T01000078 56008=
Min/Max temperatures in HYA were 40/64, where winds veered a little later
than at CQX :
KHYA 081456Z 01010KT 10SM SCT019 14/10 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP267 T01390100 58001=
KHYA 081556Z 03009KT 10SM CLR 15/11 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP262 T01500106=
KHYA 081656Z 02008KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP259 T01610100=
KHYA 081756Z 02010KT 10SM CLR 17/11 A3030 RMK AO2 SLP263 T01670106 10167 20111
55004=
KHYA 081856Z AUTO 08006KT 10SM CLR 17/09 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP253 T01720089=
KHYA 081956Z AUTO 15010KT 10SM CLR 16/09 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP249 T01560089=
KHYA 082056Z AUTO 16007KT 120V190 10SM CLR 15/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP253 T01500067
55009=
KHYA 082156Z AUTO 14007KT 10SM CLR 14/07 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP249 T01390072=
KHYA 082256Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM CLR 13/07 A3027 RMK AO2 SLP252 T01280067=
KHYA 082356Z AUTO 17003KT 10SM CLR 12/08 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP249 T01170078 10178
20117 56005=
I admit I did not look at a map to discover that West Dennis Beach is on the
inside shore of the cape until today, so they probably saw something a bit
different than either of the 3 locations with METAR's - the veering might've
occurred a bit earlier because the surface ridge was passing from N to S -
though it was probably primarily because of the sea breeze, which I considered
in my forecast. Correctly forecasting some of these details was excellent for
almost 5 days in advance.
We probably won't get readings from West Dennis Beach - being next to the
water, they were probably warmer during night & a bit cooler during day than
HYA and winds a little different.
dave saltz
> Jack - with all the arguing you are staring here again, this is what
> you want to attract attention from : may forecast from Monday evening
> for Cape Cod today was very accurate.
Why do you choose to accept others' observations when they support your
forecast, but dismiss them out-of-hand when they do not make you look
good?
Dave
Joseph Bartlo
> Why do you choose to accept others' observations when they support your
> forecast, but dismiss them out-of-hand when they do not make you look
> good?
I don't do that - the observations I complained about were inconsistent with
the METAR reports and among themselves (i.e., precipitation and snow amounts).
They were subjectively determined. The METAR's are taken with a machine.
Sure, someone can fiddle around with that also, but today's winds reports were
consistent with other data. I have no reason to suspect these, yet if someone
posts here and says (subjectively) that the winds on West Dennis Beach were
20 kt from the NW, then I would be suspicious of that because it would be
inconsistent with the METAR reports.
Joseph Bartlo
> Min/Max temperatures in HYA were 40/64, where winds veered a little later
> than at CQX : ^^^^^
Correction : earlier
Donald Rosenfeld
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sfc06080209z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/06080212z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/quicksat06080212z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/12z%20temp.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir6080217Z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06080221z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir06080219z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06090203z.gif
Subject: Re: 14 day wind forecast
Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 01:49:38 GMT
From: Donald Rosenfeld <rose...@attbi.com>
Organization: ATT Broadband
Newsgroups: ne.weather
References: 1
Hi Ann
The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
make it a miss.
Hope your event turns out ok.
Subject: Re: 14 day wind forecast
Date: Mon, 27 May 2002 22:36:32 GMT
From: Joseph Bartlo <jba...@enter.net>
Organization: ENTER.net (enter.net)
Newsgroups: ne.weather
References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5
Ann P. wrote:
> Oh come now, it's like a placebo..it gives me hope..don't be such
> grouches...play nice..
I was not being a grouch - I was simply informing you (lest you were
unaware)
that there is no skill forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in
advance.
Carolyn's gonna try convincing you otherwise, but she (like many people)
will
try to make you remember the forecasts which happened to be right and
forget
about the others (or explain them away somehow). She won't show you a
rigorous
analysis with verifications showing any accuracy greater than chance.
Subject: 14 day wind forecast
Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 08:28:19 GMT
From: Joseph Bartlo <jba...@enter.net>
Organization: ENTER.net (enter.net)
Newsgroups: ne.weather
References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8
"which has consequences the subsequent days (i.e., days of the event).
Namely
the trof aloft strengthening to the W-SW :
and consequently a significant cold frontal passage PM the 7th :
and a zone with weak pressure gradient AM (and possibly much of daytime)
the
8th :
The High to the N strengthens and causes E-SE winds ahead of the system
to
the W (associated with the Low/trof aloft) :
Thus the forecast taking the MRF verbatim would be for gusty SW winds
much
of the 7th, shifting to NW with the front late PM, then weakening while
veering to NE-E AM the 8th - maybe light winds much of day :) though the
sea breezes may augment any easterly component. The winds would then
strengthen and veer to E-SE PM the 8th & continue so the 9th as a warm
front
approaches from the SW.
The GGEM does not seem to agree with this, though some extrapolation is
necessary. As mentioned, doesn't seem like the Low/trof to the W would
be develop nearly so much, and the scenario using that may be NW breezes
behind day 10's Low moving NE veering to S-SW ahead of a system further
W with no strong Low to the N causing an easterly wind component.
As I mentioned, the actual scenario will probably significantly differ
from
both of these - so I still say difficult to say much with certainty
now."
Joseph Bartlo
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/2002-06-08_1523-1532_WASH_010403_1KM.jpg
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sfc06080209z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/06080212z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/quicksat06080212z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/12z%20temp.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir6080217Z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06080221z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir06080219z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
>
> http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06090203z.gif
Large scale and automated analyses such as these are not of much use to
determine anything about winds on the small scale. Because gradient winds
were light, the sea breeze was a significant factor, and the winds veered
from NE to S over the region Saturday because of that and because of the
ridge passing south across the region. Now they are SW (as expected)
with the approach of a weak cold front and the ridge well to the S.
Local effects can be important such as surface roughness. My guess is
that late morning was probably a bit breezy with NE winds across the water,
but then they rapidly diminished mid afternoon while the winds veered to
E then SE. Perhaps we'll get a report from the event - though I don't
expect any detailed wind measurements and some people couldn't even say
you which direction E is.
Donald Rosenfeld
Was there a northerly flow?
Was the wind speed in the 10 to 15 range?
Were the temps nights 50's, days 60's?
Was a disturbance off the coast and missing?
Can forecasts be made 14 days out?
The answers to all the questions above: yes
Joseph Bartlo wrote:
>
> Donald Rosenfeld wrote:
>
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/2002-06-08_1523-1532_WASH_010403_1KM.jpg
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sfc06080209z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/06080212z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/quicksat06080212z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/12z%20temp.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir6080217Z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06080221z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/dir06080219z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
> >
> > http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06090203z.gif
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/temp06090215z.gif
Joseph Bartlo
> To me the issues were and are:
>
> Was there a northerly flow?
Most likely Saturday, not Sunday.
> Was the wind speed in the 10 to 15 range?
Most likely for brief periods Saturday - but the 3 stations reporting
METAR's were 10 kt or lower all day yesterday - became calm a few places
late afternoon. Today they almost certainly are.
> Were the temps nights 50's, days 60's?
Minimums were most likely 40's Saturday, low 50's today. Maximums low
60's yesterday and seems like high 60's today.
> Was a disturbance off the coast and missing?
It affected them Friday, but not significantly Saturday.
> Can forecasts be made 14 days out?
I don't see much evidence of this. I saw no one post anything of great
value here 14 days in advance - a week or less in advance, yes.
> The answers to all the questions above: yes
I disagree. As I said, we can't be certain of much unless we get an
accurate report from the beach because conditions can vary very much
locally.
Joseph Bartlo
> Can forecasts be made 14 days out?
There was a northerly wind component (though light to moderate at most)
much of Saturday, and maximum temperatures of 60's to maybe around 70 today.
Today there are strong winds. 2 storm system affected the region - the one
causing rain Friday and the one passing to the N today - causing the gusty
SW winds. So today is windy, but not yesterday. This perhaps indicates
some skill - though some thing will even be right about a guess - climatology
would not do bad for the temperatures.
Carolyn guessed the chance of rain for Friday correctly (though of course
called it a chance - leaving the possibility for nothing to be wrong as usual
- I thought astrologers, psychics etc. could see the future, so the idea of
a chance in this context seems absurd), though there definitely was not any
significant cloudiness yesterday, nor much today yet. Saturday was cool, but
not today. One day had the strong winds but not both. Again, a better than
average guess - but not much more than that IMO.
5 days in advance I actually missed the rain Friday (though the competition
is/was today & yesterday), though I was able to forecast the temperatures
very well each day and the trend of the wind (direction & speed) very well.
I admittedly underestimated the wind speed, but not a great amount. So I
consider that valuable information - providing a useful scenario of the
progression of weather during the event. I don't think these details can
be guessed correctly 2 weeks in advance, and that is my point.
Donald Rosenfeld
Joseph Bartlo wrote:
>
> Most likely for brief periods Saturday - but the 3 stations reporting
> METAR's were 10 kt or lower all day yesterday - became calm a few places
> late afternoon.
***** http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
Today they almost certainly are.
***** http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06090217z.gif
>
> > Were the temps nights 50's, days 60's?
>
> Minimums were most likely 40's Saturday, low 50's today. Maximums low
> 60's yesterday and seems like high 60's today.
***** So, we agree that the day time temps were in the 60's as
forecasted.
***** The night time temps were in the 40's in the bogs, but my forecast
was
for the Cape Cod coast where the low temps were in the 50's- as
forecasted.
>
> > Was a disturbance off the coast and missing?
>
> It affected them Friday, but not significantly Saturday.
***** The forecast was "There will be a close off shore miss that could
possibly scrape the Cape
region"
***** If you see the sat pix & sfc chart below, there was an off-shore
miss on Saturday.
*****
http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/2002-06-08_1523-1532_WASH_010403_1KM.jpg
***** http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sfc06080209z.gif
>
> > Can forecasts be made 14 days out?
>
> I don't see much evidence of this.
***** "Evidence" may be seen, if someone chooses to, by looking at the
urls supplied.
I saw no one post anything of great
> value here 14 days in advance
***** There were two forecasts made. Forecaster A said: "Cool- 50s
night, 60s day, fair chance of afternoon showers, northerly winds, wind
speeds 10-20, offshore miss". Forecaster B said: "there is no skill
forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in advance."
Joseph Bartlo
> Joseph Bartlo wrote:
>>
>> Most likely for brief periods Saturday - but the 3 stations reporting
>> METAR's were 10 kt or lower all day yesterday - became calm a few places
>> late afternoon.
>
> ***** http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
The data from the 3 stations on Cape Cod at 21 Z yesterday was :
KPVC 082055Z 30005KT 10SM CLR 16/09 A3027 RMK AO1 57014=
KHYA 082056Z AUTO 16007KT 120V190 10SM CLR 15/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP253 T01500067
55009=
KCQX 082052Z AUTO 05005KT 10SM CLR 13/07 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP256 T01330067 55011=
For those who are unfamiliar with the format, 16007KT for HYA (for example)
means sustained winds from 160° at 7 kt. The other 2 were 5 kt.
The reason the analysis above shows 10-15 kt over the region is because (as
I previously mentioned), small scale features often are not apparent on large
scale maps with crude automated analyses. What is responsible for those
contours are 3 offshore observations :
Offshore Data at 21Z Jun 08
DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd
HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
08/21 44008 40.5 -69.4 10.5 030 16 G 17 030 19 1023.5 0.0 11.2 2.5 9
08/21 44013 42.4 -70.7 12.6 9.4 140 10 G 14 140 14 1024.3 -1.6 12.2 1.5 8
08/21 BUZM3 41.4 -70.9 13.2 140 10 G 11 130 13 1025.4 -1.0 14.7 0.5 11
44013 is well NE of West Dennis (ENE of Boston), BUZM3 is about as far away
SW, and 44008 is further still to the SE. These stations surround Cape Cod
and all reported winds of 10 kt or greater. The problem is that a surface
ridge was nearly overhead at Cape Cod (slightly S) and the sea breeze also
has an effect. It does at 44013, but much more so because that is not far
from Boston Harbor. Cape Cod is removed from the shoreline of a large land
mass. One reason winds veered from NE to SE daytime Saturday was a response
to the sea breeze to the NW. Air flow from over the ocean and must be
replaced. Subsidence does this to some extent, but also SE flow from the
cape Cod area.
This map illustrates the basic idea for awhile, though it'll be an hour older
each hour after I post.
http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/t-23/usneatl.gif
> ***** So, we agree that the day time temps were in the 60's as
> forecasted.
Probably low 60's. Maximum temperatures from the 3 stations on Cape Cod were :
PVC 63 CQX 59 HYA 64
So my guess is that is was about 62 on the beach.
> ***** The night time temps were in the 40's in the bogs, but my forecast
> was for the Cape Cod coast where the low temps were in the 50's - as
> forecasted.
Do you have any proof of this ? The minimum temperature at the 3 stations
Saturday morning were :
PVC 41 CQX 48 HYA 40
PVC is quite close to the ocean, the other 2 are more inland. So I maintain
the minimum temperature was probably in the 40's - perhaps about 46 on the
beach.
FWIW, HYA is the closest station - to the SW not far from the southern shore.
> ***** The forecast was "There will be a close off shore miss that could
> possibly scrape the Cape region"
>
> ***** If you see the sat pix & sfc chart below, there was an off-shore
> miss on Saturday.
I would not consider it a close off shore miss because it hit them Friday.
I.e., the location was further N than your description suggests and a day
earlier. That is how I read it, yet I don't want to argue about words.
That is better than expected 2 weeks in advance, but I don't think it is
consistently so good for that time period.
> ***** "Evidence" may be seen, if someone chooses to, by looking at the
> urls supplied.
Looking at them critically, they show something a little different than you
are saying.
> night, 60s day, fair chance of afternoon showers, northerly winds, wind
> speeds 10-20, offshore miss". Forecaster B said: "there is no skill
> forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in advance."
S maintain there is not much skill. Winds were light in the region Saturday
& veered from NE to SE or S. Winds are rather strong & gusty today from SW.
Again, what you said is better than average for 2 weeks in advance, but no
clear indication of the progression of weather events for the event IMO.
My forecast 5 days in advance did that, and I'm not gonna let anyone convince
me yesterday was windy with all the 3 stations in Cape Cod reporting light
winds, nor will I let anyone try to tell me my forecast wasn't excellent for
5 days in advance - winds veering as I mentioned - directions correct both
days. I know you'll try doing this - you may even talk Ann into giving the
shirt to someone else - but I aint listening nor am ignoring all the data
supporting my forecast.
Donald Rosenfeld
Joseph Bartlo wrote:
>
> Donald Rosenfeld wrote:
>
> > Joseph Bartlo wrote:
> >>
> >> Most likely for brief periods Saturday - but the 3 stations reporting
> >> METAR's were 10 kt or lower all day yesterday - became calm a few places
> >> late afternoon.
> >
> > ***** http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/speed06080221z.gif
>
> The data from the 3 stations on Cape Cod at 21 Z yesterday was :
>
> KPVC 082055Z 30005KT 10SM CLR 16/09 A3027 RMK AO1 57014=
> KHYA 082056Z AUTO 16007KT 120V190 10SM CLR 15/07 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP253 T01500067
> 55009=
> KCQX 082052Z AUTO 05005KT 10SM CLR 13/07 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP256 T01330067 55011=
>
> For those who are unfamiliar with the format, 16007KT for HYA (for example)
> means sustained winds from 160° at 7 kt. The other 2 were 5 kt.
####### 12Z http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/06080212z.gif
>
> The reason the analysis above shows 10-15 kt over the region is because (as
> I previously mentioned), small scale features often are not apparent on large
> scale maps with crude automated analyses. What is responsible for those
> contours are 3 offshore observations :
>
> Offshore Data at 21Z Jun 08
>
> DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd
> HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
>
> 08/21 44008 40.5 -69.4 10.5 030 16 G 17 030 19 1023.5 0.0 11.2 2.5 9
> 08/21 44013 42.4 -70.7 12.6 9.4 140 10 G 14 140 14 1024.3 -1.6 12.2 1.5 8
> 08/21 BUZM3 41.4 -70.9 13.2 140 10 G 11 130 13 1025.4 -1.0 14.7 0.5 11
###### My forecast was not for the offshore waters.
>
> 44013 is well NE of West Dennis (ENE of Boston), BUZM3 is about as far away
> SW, and 44008 is further still to the SE. These stations surround Cape Cod
> and all reported winds of 10 kt or greater. The problem is that a surface
> ridge was nearly overhead at Cape Cod (slightly S) and the sea breeze also
> has an effect. It does at 44013, but much more so because that is not far
> from Boston Harbor. Cape Cod is removed from the shoreline of a large land
> mass. One reason winds veered from NE to SE daytime Saturday was a response
> to the sea breeze to the NW. Air flow from over the ocean and must be
> replaced. Subsidence does this to some extent, but also SE flow from the
> cape Cod area.
>
> This map illustrates the basic idea for awhile, though it'll be an hour older
> each hour after I post.
>
> http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/t-23/usneatl.gif
>
> > ***** So, we agree that the day time temps were in the 60's as
> > forecasted.
>
> Probably low 60's. Maximum temperatures from the 3 stations on Cape Cod were :
>
> PVC 63 CQX 59 HYA 64
>
> So my guess is that is was about 62 on the beach.
>
> > ***** The night time temps were in the 40's in the bogs, but my forecast
> > was for the Cape Cod coast where the low temps were in the 50's - as
> > forecasted.
>
> Do you have any proof of this ?
####### Water temps modify the air temp near the shore.
####### http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sstemp060802.gif
The minimum temperature at the 3 stations
> Saturday morning were :
>
> PVC 41 CQX 48 HYA 40
>
> PVC is quite close to the ocean, the other 2 are more inland. So I maintain
> the minimum temperature was probably in the 40's - perhaps about 46 on the
> beach.
>
> FWIW, HYA is the closest station - to the SW not far from the southern shore.
>
> > ***** The forecast was "There will be a close off shore miss that could
> > possibly scrape the Cape region"
> >
> > ***** If you see the sat pix & sfc chart below, there was an off-shore
> > miss on Saturday.
>
> I would not consider it a close off shore miss because it hit them Friday.
###### True that it was not a "close" miss. You are confusing the system
on the 6th & 7th with the unrelated off shore low along the front. The
origin of that was further to the south west along the frontal zone.
> I.e., the location was further N than your description suggests and a day
> earlier. That is how I read it, yet I don't want to argue about words.
##### Great
> That is better than expected 2 weeks in advance,
#### Thank you
but I don't think it is
> consistently so good for that time period.
>
> > ***** "Evidence" may be seen, if someone chooses to, by looking at the
> > urls supplied.
>
> Looking at them critically, they show something a little different than you
> are saying.
>
> > night, 60s day, fair chance of afternoon showers, northerly winds, wind
> > speeds 10-20, offshore miss". Forecaster B said: "there is no skill
> > forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in advance."
>
> S maintain there is not much skill. Winds were light in the region Saturday
> & veered from NE to SE or S. Winds are rather strong & gusty today from SW.
>
> Again, what you said is better than average for 2 weeks in advance, but no
> clear indication of the progression of weather events for the event IMO.
> My forecast 5 days in advance did that, and I'm not gonna let anyone convince
> me yesterday was windy with all the 3 stations in Cape Cod reporting light
> winds, nor will I let anyone try to tell me my forecast wasn't excellent for
> 5 days in advance - winds veering as I mentioned - directions correct both
> days. I know you'll try doing this - you may even talk Ann into giving the
> shirt to someone else - but I aint listening nor am ignoring all the data
> supporting my forecast.
###### I'm not accepting the shirt. And, I never entered the contest.
Joseph Bartlo
> ###### My forecast was not for the offshore waters.
That is my point. On the large scale, automated analysis, the offshore winds
basically determine the contours in the entire region - though clearly there
was a small surface ridge passing directly over the Cape daytime Saturday.
> ####### Water temps modify the air temp near the shore.
Yes, but inland stations were reporting calm winds or nearly so that night.
There could've been a land breeze from the NW around & S of the the Boston
area. So saying the minimum temperature might've been in the 50's is one
thing, providing data for that another.
> ####### http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/sstemp060802.gif
Here is a map with a little more detail around Cape Cod :
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/natlanti.c.gif
It does show an area of cooler water inside the cape - and that was a few
days ago. For this reason I though minimums of 46 & 49 would be reasonable
with calm winds one night and light southerly ones from over land the next.
Again, I am not sure anyone has this data - so we can speculate alot but
not be certain of much.
I agree there is skill 2 weeks in advance, but even then one forecast does
not determine much regarding what type of skill may typically be expected.
Donald Rosenfeld
Weathersage
>The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
>surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
>Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
>Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
>considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
>winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
>
>There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
>region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
>make it a miss.
>Hope your event turns out ok.
This is a long post but I'll try to be brief in my reply. The
above description of weather is written today or yesterday? My long
range forecast said cool, clouds, chance of rain on the 7th and strong
wind - much more definite 2 weeks in advance than what is written for
the current day.
>Ann P. wrote:
>> Oh come now, it's like a placebo..it gives me hope..don't be such
>> grouches...play nice..
Ann, playing nice is not the expected behaviour from many of this
list.
JBartlo wrote:
>I was not being a grouch - I was simply informing you (lest you were
>unaware)>that there is no skill forecasting winds off Cape Cod 2 weeks in
>advance.>Carolyn's gonna try convincing you otherwise, but she (like many people)
>will>try to make you remember the forecasts which happened to be right and
>forget>about the others (or explain them away somehow). She won't show you a
>rigorous>analysis with verifications showing any accuracy greater than chance.
Joe is right. I cannot show you an anlysis that resembles anything he
would write. I never will, nor would I want to.
Also, he should never try to anticipate what anyone would 'try' to do
- anyone knows that is irrational.
Best wishes, Carolyn
Weathersage
>Donald Rosenfeld wrote:
>> Can forecasts be made 14 days out?
>Carolyn guessed the chance of rain for Friday correctly (though of course
>called it a chance - leaving the possibility for nothing to be wrong as usual
It's not clear who wrote what in this post, but let me try to put some
clarity to the nonsensical statements. The forecast I made for Ann
was not a guess. The rest of your remark is your own opinion.
>- I thought astrologers, psychics etc. could see the future, so the idea of
>a chance in this context seems absurd), though there definitely was not any
>significant cloudiness yesterday, nor much today yet. Saturday was cool, but
>not today. One day had the strong winds but not both. Again, a better than
>average guess - but not much more than that IMO.
My forecasts are worked on at considerable length using models you
wouldn't understand - not your fault, just not your particular study.
Please do not group me with psychics or etc, whatever etc means. I am
a professional practicing and teaching astrologer with a specialty of
long range weather forecasting.
>
>5 days in advance I actually missed the rain Friday (though the competition
>is/was today & yesterday), though I was able to forecast the temperatures
>very well each day and the trend of the wind (direction & speed) very well.
It's good that you can pat yourself on the back, just don't fall over.
>I admittedly underestimated the wind speed, but not a great amount.
So I
>consider that valuable information - providing a useful scenario of the
>progression of weather during the event. I don't think these details can
>be guessed correctly 2 weeks in advance, and that is my point.
It is also good that you can have an outlet to make your points.
Replies to your postings are not always respectful of your points and
that must be very hard for you. You have my sympathies.
Best wishes, Carolyn
Joseph Bartlo
> It's not clear who wrote what in this post, but let me try to put some
> clarity to the nonsensical statements. The forecast I made for Ann
> was not a guess. The rest of your remark is your own opinion.
My 14-day forecasts are guesses - I think anyone's is whichever method they
use. There are some aspects which are right like your mention of rain Friday,
but other aspects were not so good. It was cool (though I think the average
maximum temperature now is only high 60's - so climatology would be fine for
today) and not much cloudiness today and almost none yesterday. There were
strong winds today, but I don't think so yesterday - seemed light, but that
can't be said for certain (or for today) with data from other nearby locations.
So I think it was very good for 14 days, but probably much better than you'd
typically do. My 5 day forecast was better than I'd typically do - because
as Donald mentioned I forecast the track of the High/ridge perfectly (the
timing off a little bit, thus the strongest winds probably Saturday morning
& weaker afternoon).
> My forecasts are worked on at considerable length using models you
> wouldn't understand - not your fault, just not your particular study.
Is there any proof though that weather is somehow related to the planets and
stars. I can easily prove that models such as the GGEM (& the extended ETA)
which were those I primarily used are based on physical equations that occur
in the atmosphere. I suppose some alien can play games like having a secret
code to modify the weather according to where the planets are and have the
technology to do that - and you can decipher the code - but other than that,
I don't see a good reason why they should significantly affect the weather.
And if there is a code, you didn't decipher all of it if that's the case.
> It is also good that you can have an outlet to make your points.
> Replies to your postings are not always respectful of your points and
> that must be very hard for you. You have my sympathies.
Thank you - I appreciate it. That alone is enough for me to be nice to you
here because you are almost the only who recognizes this.
DuBois
>
> Jack - with all the arguing you are staring here again,
One tiny tease from Jack, and Jojo will start arguing
with HIMSELF for days on end.
> I admit I did not look at a map to discover that West Dennis Beach is on the
> inside shore of the cape until today, ..
Brilliant! After nine years of college, you can forecast
for a location with out even knowing where it is! Where
in your nine years of undergraduate study did you learn
that highly specialized technique? Maybe this would explain
the innacuracies in most of your forecasts. You can dream
up all kinds of excuses, like deliberate falsification of
observations by people who have never heard of you, in a
conspiracy to cheat you in a contest they never heard
of, on an obscure corner of a pre-WWW computer-geek network,
and other bizzare hallucinations and delusions. Perhaps the
reason that you have lost so many contests on Usenet is
becausue you have no idea where some of these places are!
Before you start in arguing as you always do, let me
acknowledge that you did apparently win one single Usenet
forecasting contest once. Any contest which involves
forecasting for your mother's backyard* in which you can
create you own "observations" to "verify" your forecast
MUST be dismissed out of hand. You must, by virtue of
your extensive college study, understand the reasons for
this. Any contest transparently designed to be so arcane
and convoluted that no one but yourself would ever enter
myust also be discounted. Of course you must understand
this.
* My mention of your mother's backyard was a simple description
of a location for which you make forecasts. You may or may
not know where your mother's backyard really is, but this
is NOT an invitation for you to start another lengthy argument
with yourself about your opinions on land usage and race
relations. So don't start arguing, pest. Nobody in ne.wx cares
about your O.T. opinions on social issues, or your endless
O.T. arguing and bickering. Save it for Connie and her pussy.
Joseph Bartlo
> One tiny tease from Jack, and Jojo will start arguing
> with HIMSELF for days on end.
Don't give me this crap - he and you start arguments, and I argue with you
to make people aware of your lies.
> Brilliant! After nine years of college, you can forecast
> for a location with out even knowing where it is!
Doesn't matter that much.
> Perhaps the reason that you have lost so many contests on Usenet
> is becausue you have no idea where some of these places are!
? Tell me which ones I lost - 2 snow contests this winter ?
> Before you start in arguing as you always do, let me
> acknowledge that you did apparently win one single Usenet
> forecasting contest once.
I won 5 of 9 cities in a game in 1995. I also won #5 of TQ's snow game and
Moishe's snow game I think twice before that.
> Any contest transparently designed to be so arcane and
> convoluted that no one but yourself would ever enter myust
> also be discounted. Of course you must understand this.
It is designed as it is to maximize the skill and minimize the luck - which
you evidently don't understand.
> Nobody in ne.wx cares about your O.T. opinions on social issues,
> or your endless O.T. arguing and bickering.
People start off-topic arguments with me, pest. I am not a pest - you are.
> Save it for Connie and her pussy.
She doesn't have a cat, or in that sick mind of yours are you referring to
something else ?
I don't know what you think you accomplish doing this, but whatever it is,
it isn't doing much.
Donald Rosenfeld
Weathersage wrote:
>
> >Donald Rosenfeld wrote:
**********Donald Rosenfeld did not write.
*******Thank you.
Donald Rosenfeld
Weathersage wrote:
>
> On Sun, 09 Jun 2002 07:44:22 GMT, Donald Rosenfeld
> >Hi Ann
> >The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
> >surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
> >Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
> >Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
> >considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
> >winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
> >
> >There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
> >region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
> >make it a miss.
> >Hope your event turns out ok.
> Hello Donald,
> This is a long post but I'll try to be brief in my reply. The
> above description of weather is written today or yesterday?
*******
Subject: Re: 14 day wind forecast
Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 01:49:38 GMT
From: Donald Rosenfeld <rose...@attbi.com>
Organization: ATT Broadband
Newsgroups: ne.weather
References: 1
Hi Ann
The MRF (may now be the AVN) is showing in the ensembles, both on the
surface and aloft, strong indications of the following for your event in
Eastern New England on the 8th & 9th of June:
Coolish temperatures (night 50's day time 60's), partly cloudy to
considerable cloudiness, chance of unstable afternoon cumulus showers,
winds 10- 15 from a northerly component direction.
There will be a close off shore miss that could possible scrape the Cape
region but most (2/3rds) scenarios carry it sufficiently off shore to
make it a miss.
Hope your event turns out ok.
--------------------------------------------
My long
> range forecast said
*******From: Weathersage <caro...@cox.net>
Newsgroups: ne.weather
Subject: Re: 14 day wind forecast
Message-ID: <sob4fusdocphp4efl...@4ax.com>
References: <EYmI8.9955$jv5.2...@typhoon.ne.ipsvc.net>
X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.9/32.560
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
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Date: Mon, 27 May 2002 13:18:00 GMT
NNTP-Posting-Host: 68.1.175.56
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X-Trace: news2.east.cox.net 1022505480 68.1.175.56 (Mon, 27 May 2002
09:18:00 EDT)
NNTP-Posting-Date: Mon, 27 May 2002 09:18:00 EDT
Organization: Cox Communications
>I used to have a link that showed the 14 day wind forecast..cannot find it
>now..does anyone have something to look at...I have a HUGE event June
>8-9..thanks..Annie
>www.kingofthecape.com
Hi Ann,
I don't have a link for you but I can offer this for your splendid
looking event. The winds should continue to be strong for your event
as they have been for weeks this spring. Comparing to last year when
the model I use featured the same conditions, you could also expect ,
a drop in temperatures and clouds. Chance of showers more likely on
the 7th. Do you normally draw a huge viewing crowd?
Carolyn
>
>
--------------------------------------------------
Michael Moriarty
7th"...along w/ strong winds.......
that is one of the most un-specific forecasts i have EVER read.....no
specific, quantifiable temps., windspeed, amt. of rain, etc.....so if
ANYONE on this NG can top that in terms of SUBJECTIVE, useless,
ambiguity....i have a "YES, THERE REALLY IS A KALAMAZOO" t-shirt to send
you.......
Granted, my 5 day forecast for Ann stunk worse than a skunk rolling in
horse manure after a swim in Sulfur Springs....yet i made a call for
exact temp. & exact windspeed(though quite wrong/didn't come close to
verifying)
Mike
ps- if anyone has seen/has information on the whereabouts of Carolyn's
(June 10th)Bahamas hurricane Arthur...please contact John Walsh @
America's Most Wanted...OR Robert Stack @ Unsolved Mysteries.....
Joseph Bartlo
> Granted, my 5 day forecast for Ann stunk worse than a skunk rolling in
> horse manure after a swim in Sulfur Springs....yet i made a call for
> exact temp. & exact windspeed(though quite wrong/didn't come close to
> verifying)
Was very close to verifying Sunday - problem is it seems you decided to put
(Sat) instead of (Sun). Winds were almost perfect for today, though maximum
temperature probably 6° too high (mine was 72° for today - not much better).
The event included 2 days of windsurfing - Saturday & Sunday. So another
way of interpreting your forecast is maybe that you were off by a day ?
Louis Gentile
there is stormy weather (non-tropical) developing in the Bahamas this
morning and moving slowly WSW toward Florida where showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become heavy at times with locally gusty
winds through the next 72 hours. However, Stack told me, that he
believes "arthur" is "Boris," sneeking up along the Mexican coast now
with 50mph winds and increasing in intensity.
Weathersage
topic. I sincerely apologize for any mixup on references I caused.
Best wishes, Carolyn
Donald Rosenfeld
From: Ann Phelan
To: Donald Rosenfeld
Sent: Monday, June 10, 2002 6:42 AM
Subject: RE: Friday, Saturday & Sunday weather
NE COLD Fri., COLD NE then SE Sat and NUKING SW yest..
I do not think anyone called it..HAA..thanks for asking..
ya never know do ya...
Caribbean Wind and Sun Vacations
P.O. Box 820
S. Dennis, MA 02660
508-385-8174
www.antiguacaribbean.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Donald Rosenfeld [mailto:rose...@attbi.com]
Sent: Monday, June 10, 2002 1:01 AM
To: Ann Phelan
Subject: Friday, Saturday & Sunday weather
Hi Ann
Well, what was the weather at your event??
Thanks
Joseph Bartlo
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ann Phelan
> To: Donald Rosenfeld
> Sent: Monday, June 10, 2002 6:42 AM
> Subject: RE: Friday, Saturday & Sunday weather
>
> NE COLD Fri., COLD NE then SE Sat and NUKING SW yest..
> I do not think anyone called it..HAA..thanks for asking..
> ya never know do ya...
>
>
> Caribbean Wind and Sun Vacations
> P.O. Box 820
> S. Dennis, MA 02660
> 508-385-8174
> www.antiguacaribbean.com
I'm not sure if Ann wanted you to share her e-mail with the group, but it
is unfortunate that a person doesn't think a forecast of those exact wind
directions 5 days in advance for Saturday & Sunday is helpful.
I underestimated the speeds, but did forecast occasional gusts to 12 kt.
Saturday and frequent gusts to 18 kt. Sunday. I also forecast Sunday 6°
warmer than Saturday - though it was generally about 5° cooler during
day than I thought (minimums were probably very good). I admit my Friday
forecast wasn't much help - but they weren't competing then either.
I said you'd do this and you are - trying to make my forecast look bad.
Maybe Ann should ask people a day or 2 before the event though instead of
5 days in advance. There's much more skill at 5 days than 14, but much
more at 1 than 5. Because of this "we can forecast anything any amount
of time in advance" mentality which developed here, some people might be
unaware of this.
Donald Rosenfeld
weather was at her event.
If you had included my original message in this post by you that I'm
responding to you would see:
-----Original Message-----
From: Donald Rosenfeld [mailto:rose...@attbi.com]
Sent: Monday, June 10, 2002 1:01 AM
To: Ann Phelan
Subject: Friday, Saturday & Sunday weather
Hi Ann
Well, what was the weather at your event??
Thanks
which would indicate that I was not saying, doing anything with respect
to your forecast. If my memory serves, the only forecast you made two
weeks out was: two weeks in-advance forecasts could not be made. Maybe
you'd like to make a retraction?
And.
I am unable to make "your forecast look bad"- only verification can.
As like you, I am disappointed that Ann didn't find my forecast of fair,
cool and northerly component winds to be accurate with the exception of
the southwest winds on Sunday that went back to a northerly component
Sunday night.
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> Jack - with all the arguing you are staring here again, this is what you
> want to attract attention from : may forecast from Monday evening for Cape
> Cod today was very accurate. I was not on West Dennis Beach and conditions
> can vary around the region quite significantly, but here was my forecast :
Hogwash, you are only accepting the readings because they more or less
confirm your forecast. If the observations had proven you to be wrong you
would be crying like a baby. You are a fake Joseph!
Did you see the sale Walmart is having on FancyFeast cat food? Time to stock
up!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> jack wrote:
>
>> Now don't answer every post, go feed the cats, check your rain gauge or
>> chase the lady next door around the hedge.
>
> I am answering every post and working on my next forecast - trying to improve
> more.
Keep trying! Practice makes purrfect!
jack
> You quit bothering me here.
You are bothering yourself Joseph! Just stop responding! What's so difficult
about that?
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> dave saltz wrote:
>
>> Why do you choose to accept others' observations when they support your
>> forecast, but dismiss them out-of-hand when they do not make you look
>> good?
>
> I don't do that -
Yes you do, you do it all the time! That's why you look like such a fool!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
>
>> Min/Max temperatures in HYA were 40/64, where winds veered a little later
>> than at CQX : ^^^^^
>
> Correction : earlier
Responding to yourself again!
Joseph Bartlo
> Hogwash, you are only accepting the readings because they more or less
> confirm your forecast. If the observations had proven you to be wrong you
> would be crying like a baby.
You have no idea what I'd do. So what if I did ?
Joseph Bartlo
> You are bothering yourself Joseph! Just stop responding! What's so difficult
> about that?
If I don't respond, people might believe lies you tell about me - like the
ones you did today.
Joseph Bartlo
> Yes you do, you do it all the time! That's why you look like such a fool!
No - I only do this when I have good reason to suspect observations - even
occasionally when they are favorable to me.
Joseph Bartlo
> Responding to yourself again!
Making a correction - or can you suggest a better way to do that ?
Don't always find the worst way of interpreting something I do.
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
>> Save it for Connie and her pussy.
>
> She doesn't have a cat, or in that sick mind of yours are you referring to
> something else ?
She does have a cat, we all know that. What else could Dubois be referring
to?
>
> I don't know what you think you accomplish doing this, but whatever it is,
> it isn't doing much.
It's making you look like a puppet on a string. Every time someone pulls
your cords, you jump and flap your mouth. What a DOPE!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
What lies?
I said you make Racist comments! Can you deny that?
I said your only believe your own verifications! Can you deny that?
I said when someone else's verifications show you to be wrong, you don't
believe them and cry cheat! Can you deny that?
You were a big pain in the butt during TQ's contest, even the one you won!
Can you deny that?
I said you don't have a job (except for giving forecasts for the guy in
Michigan. Can you deny that?
I said you cause trouble on other newsgroups. Can you deny that.
You claim you don't have cats! Can you honestly deny you have cats?
Everyone believes all the above, so keep denying it! Everyone knows about
you Joey.
Now go feed the cats! Above all SHUT UP!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
It means you are full of hogwash, and pig vomit! Now go make a weeks
forecast for other then your backyard. Let's see how good you really are!
Hell, issue a public forecast for Allentown, that can be independently
verified. What are you afraid of?
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
I've never seen you do it when they are favorable to you, only when they are
not! You even said one time that your enemies would do anything to make you
look bad, including issuing false verifications. Do you remember saying that
Joey?
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
> Don't always find the worst way of interpreting something I do.
Hmmm.... Some things just aren't open to interpretation. Some times it's the
things you do and say that make you look bad. You know taking responsibility
for your own actions, and not blaming "pests" and "enemies" for making you
look bad!
jack
<jba...@enter.net> wrote:
So all this B.S. From you and you missed the forecast anyway. You missed the
temps and the wind speed! So how do you claim victory Joey? You just loast
another contest!
jack
> I won 5 of 9 cities in a game in 1995. I also won #5 of TQ's snow game and
> Moishe's snow game I think twice before that.
WOW!!! After nine years of college you won a few games. I'll bet your mamma
is proud of you. LOL
jack
> It is designed as it is to maximize the skill and minimize the luck - which
> you evidently don't understand.
No one is playing it because it was designed to let you win. It was also
convoluted and silly.
jack
> People start off-topic arguments with me, pest. I am not a pest - you are.
Yeah, and Nixon wasn't a crook!
Pest!
Joseph Bartlo
> She does have a cat, we all know that. What else could Dubois be referring
> to?
Most people believe me when I say I don't - you and a few other dummies you
convinced think I she has one.
> It's making you look like a puppet on a string. Every time someone pulls
> your cords, you jump and flap your mouth. What a DOPE!
Both of you crack me up - but especially the DuBois pest.