rate of migration Tb2 ==> Tb3?
Leni
I'm wondering what the rate of migration of users from Thunderbird 2 to
Thunderbird 3 is likely to be?
eg:
- on day 1: 5% of Tb2 users have switched to Tb3
- on day 7: 15%
- on day 14: 30%
- ...
I'm guessing there might be some historical data on this.
This is relevant to extension developers who want to use Tb3-only
features but also want to support Tb2 so long as a "significant" number
of people continue using it.
Leni.
SOMOS Administrator
Hi Leni !
I will be migrating to TB3 when the official release occurs. Not now
because I hear that most of the extensions do not work with TB3, as
small as that number is. Actually I am quite surprised at the small
number of extensions for TB considering there are a lot of cool things
that could be added. Anyway, I rely heavily on TB2, Sunbird &
lightning to operate properly for a club, which is a nonprofit
organization, so my comfort level has to be very high.
Dan Mosedale
Rafael, would it be possible to get info on how this went with
Thunderbird 1.5 -> Thunderbird 2.0?
Thanks,
Dan
Justin Wood (Callek)
automated update system... Whereas from TB1.5 to TB2 there wasn't the
system we have now, so I'm not so sure the data there would easily
correspond to now.
Also of note is that likely from TB1.5 to TB2 there were far less people
*actively* using webmail productively (since GMail came out after 1.5
iirc -- and with GMail came a whole new push to get webmail fast and
user-friendly)
--
~Justin Wood (Callek)
Onno Ekker
> On 12/15/2008 2:33 PM, Dan Mosedale wrote:
>> On 12/11/08 1:31 AM, Leni wrote:
>>> Hi -
>>>
>>> I'm wondering what the rate of migration of users from Thunderbird 2 to
>>> Thunderbird 3 is likely to be?
>>>
> automated update system... Whereas from TB1.5 to TB2 there wasn't the
> system we have now, so I'm not so sure the data there would easily
> correspond to now.
Very good point. It's probably best to compare with how many people
*still* use Firefox 2.0.0.*, not to check percentages of Thunderbird.
Some people are looking for a new version and are doing it now,
confident with beta versions (or even alpha versions) and are using
Thunderbird 3.0b1 already. Others are more confident with official
releases, while the vast majority is only looking for an e-mail client
that works and that is safe. They use Thunderbird because they think
it's safe and keep using Thunderbird 2, until they get pushed (by auto
update) to go to Thunderbird 3. That term, you can probably find in the
schedule or ask here, but I think it will be at least half a year after
the first release before Thunderbird 3 will be pushed to all the
users... (That would make it something of Thunderbird 3.0.9 or maybe
even Thunderbird 3.1.3 if I understand Thunderbird's version numbering
correctly)
Onno
Justin Wood (Callek)
> Justin Wood (Callek) wrote:
>> On 12/15/2008 2:33 PM, Dan Mosedale wrote:
>>> On 12/11/08 1:31 AM, Leni wrote:
>>>> Hi -
>>>>
>>>> I'm wondering what the rate of migration of users from Thunderbird 2 to
>>>> Thunderbird 3 is likely to be?
>>>>
>> Unless I am vastly mistaken, TB2 -> TB3 will use the fully fledged
>> automated update system... Whereas from TB1.5 to TB2 there wasn't the
>> system we have now, so I'm not so sure the data there would easily
>> correspond to now.
>
> Very good point. It's probably best to compare with how many people
> *still* use Firefox 2.0.0.*,
I'm not even sure if that is a fair comparison...
Firefox 2.0.0.* has quite a few differences in its upgrade path to
Firefox 3, and an entirely different use-case scenario. Home users,
corporate users, distro's, etc.
Also extension compat is a major thing for some users. Lastly Firefox 3
has been out for quite a while now, and how long extensions take to
migrate makes a huge difference, people hear of security flaws in that
and other browsers. And learn that Mozilla is dropping support of the
Firefox 2.0.x branch of code for security updates as well.
That in and of itself is enough to drive some to upgrade.
Whereas with Thunderbird, we are still giving security updates to TB2;
we have a much smaller number of "in the wild" extensions (due to
smaller user base, and "harder to integrate" extensions -- which TB3 is
making far easier). So many of the barriers to upgrade are not there,
but also many of the to-be-released feature upgrades, other than
performance are not --as visible-- as Firefox 2->3 was.
Sure the tab feature[s] are very visible, and performance is a big win,
but at first glance I can bet many users will have an aversion to the
tabs, just as many users had an aversion to "awesome bar". Its
basically comparing apples to oranges imo.
--
~Justin Wood (Callek)
Dan Mosedale
> Unless I am vastly mistaken, TB2 -> TB3 will use the fully fledged
> automated update system... Whereas from TB1.5 to TB2 there wasn't the
> system we have now, so I'm not so sure the data there would easily
> correspond to now.
There was a major update from 1.5 to 2 in June of this past summer, I
believe. That said, it was certainly much further after 1.5 happened
than a similar major update from 2 to 3 would likely be.
> Also of note is that likely from TB1.5 to TB2 there were far less people
> *actively* using webmail productively (since GMail came out after 1.5
> iirc -- and with GMail came a whole new push to get webmail fast and
> user-friendly)
Indeed, there are lots of ways in which the situation is different here,
and our guesses are almost guaranteed to be fairly wrong. That said,
investing a little effort in the hopes of getting order-of-magnitude
levels of information seems worthwhile to me.
Dan