Here is an additional piece of information, WriteResult.toString(). This shows that "updatedExisting" = true but "n" = 0.
WriteResult: { "serverUsed" : "/
127.0.0.1:27017" , "singleShard" : "my.replset02/node01:27016,node02:27016,node03:27016"
, "n" : 0 , "lastOp" : { "$ts" : 1367820779 , "$inc" : 2} ,
"connectionId" : 7126 , "err" : null , "ok" : 1.0 , "writeback" : {
"$oid" : "518749eb00000000000144c4"} , "writebackSince" : 30 ,
"instanceIdent" : "node01:27016" , "updatedExisting" : true ,
"writebackGLE" : { "singleShard" : "my.replset02/node01:27016,node02:27016,node03:27016"
, "n" : 0 , "lastOp" : { "$ts" : 1367820779 , "$inc" : 2} ,
"connectionId" : 7126 , "err" : null , "ok" : 1.0} , "initialGLEHost" :
"my.replset02/node01:27016,node02:27016,node03:27016"}
A similar situation was discussed in
https://jira.mongodb.org/browse/SERVER-4532 for a sharded collection, but we don't have sharding here.