NYTimes: Military Charts Movement of Conflict in Iraq Toward Chaos
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Chart found at
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/78999
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/01/world/middleeast/01military.html
November 1, 2006
WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 - A classified briefing prepared two weeks ago by
the United States Central Command portrays Iraq as edging toward chaos,
in a chart that the military is using as a barometer of civil conflict.
A one-page slide shown at the Oct. 18 briefing provides a rare glimpse
into how the military command that oversees the war is trying to track
its trajectory, particularly in terms of sectarian fighting.
The slide includes a color-coded bar chart that is used to illustrate
an "Index of Civil Conflict." It shows a sharp escalation in
sectarian violence since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in
February, and tracks a further worsening this month despite a concerted
American push to tamp down the violence in Baghdad.
In fashioning the index, the military is weighing factors like the
ineffectual Iraqi police and the dwindling influence of moderate
religious and political figures, rather than more traditional military
measures such as the enemy's fighting strength and the control of
territory.
The conclusions the Central Command has drawn from these trends are not
encouraging, according to a copy of the slide that was obtained by The
New York Times. The slide shows Iraq as moving sharply away from
"peace," an ideal on the far left side of the chart, to a point
much closer to the right side of the spectrum, a red zone marked
"chaos." As depicted in the command's chart, the needle has been
moving steadily toward the far right of the chart.
An intelligence summary at the bottom of the slide reads "urban areas
experiencing 'ethnic cleansing' campaigns to consolidate control"
and "violence at all-time high, spreading geographically."
According to a Central Command official, the index on civil strife has
been a staple of internal command briefings for most of this year. The
analysis was prepared by the command's intelligence directorate,
which is overseen by Brig. Gen. John M. Custer.
Gen. John P. Abizaid, who heads the command, warned publicly in August
about the risk of civil war in Iraq, but he said then that he thought
it could be averted. In evaluating the prospects for all-out civil
strife, the command concentrates on "key reads," or several
principal variables.
According to the slide from the Oct. 18 briefing, the variables include
"hostile rhetoric" by political and religious leaders, which can be
measured by listening to sermons at mosques and to important Shiite and
Sunni leaders, and the amount of influence that moderate political and
religious figures have over the population. The other main variables
are assassinations and other especially provocative sectarian attacks,
as well as "spontaneous mass civil conflict."
A number of secondary indicators are also taken into account, including
activity by militias, problems with ineffective police, the ability of
Iraqi officials to govern effectively, the number of civilians who have
been forced to move by sectarian violence, the willingness of Iraqi
security forces to follow orders, and the degree to which the Iraqi
Kurds are pressing for independence from the central government.
These factors are evaluated to create the index of civil strife, which
has registered a steady worsening for months. "Ever since the
February attack on the Shiite mosque in Samarra, it has been closer to
the chaos side than the peace side," said a Central Command official
who asked not to be identified because he was talking about classified
information.
In the Oct. 18 brief, the index moved still another notch toward
"chaos." That briefing was prepared three days before General
Abizaid met in Washington with President Bush, Defense Secretary Donald
H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, to take stock of the situation in Iraq.
A spokesman for the Central Command declined to comment on the index or
other information in the slide. "We don't comment on secret
material," the spokesman said.
One significant factor in the military's decision to move the scale
toward "chaos" was the expanding activity by militias.
Another reason was the limitations of Iraqi government security forces,
which despite years of training and equipping by the United States, are
either ineffective or, in some cases, infiltrated by the very militias
they are supposed to be combating. The slide notes that
"ineffectual" Iraqi police forces have been a significant problem,
and cites as a concern sectarian conflicts between Iraqi security
forces.
Other significant factors are in the political realm. The slide notes
that Iraq's political and religious leaders have lost some of their
moderating influence over their constituents or adherents.
Notably, the slide also cites difficulties that the new Iraqi
administration has experienced in "governance." That appears to be
shorthand for the frustration felt by American military officers about
the Iraqi government's delays in bringing about a genuine political
reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis. It also appears to apply to
the lack of reconstruction programs to restore essential services and
the dearth of job creation efforts to give young Iraqis an alternative
to joining militias, as well as the absence of firm action against
militias.
The slide lists other factors that are described as important but less
significant. They include efforts by Iran and Syria to enable violence
by militias and insurgent groups and the interest by many Kurds in
achieving independence. The slide describes violence motivated by
sectarian differences as having moved into a "critical" phase.
The chart does note some positive developments. Specifically, it notes
that "hostile rhetoric" by political and religious leaders has not
increased. It also notes that Iraqi security forces are refusing less
often than in the past to take orders from the central government and
that there has been a drop-off in mass desertions.
Still, for a military culture that thrives on PowerPoint briefings, the
shifting index was seen by some officials as a stark warning about the
difficult course of events in Iraq, and mirrored growing concern by
some military officers.
Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
found at
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/01/world/middleeast/01military.html