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U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
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gpsman
Nov 14, 2012, 2:38:50 PM11/14/12
to
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
the International Energy Agency said Monday.
That increased oil production, combined with new American policies to
improve energy efficiency, means that the United States will become
“all but self-sufficient” in meeting its energy needs in about two
decades — a “dramatic reversal of the trend” in most developed
countries, a new report released by the agency says.
“The foundations of the global energy systems are shifting,” Fatih
Birol, chief economist at the Paris-based organization, which produces
the annual World Energy Outlook, said in an interview before the
release. The agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy
issues, had previously predicted that Saudi Arabia would be the
leading producer until 2035.
The report also predicted that global energy demand would grow between
35 and 46 percent from 2010 to 2035, depending on whether policies
that have been proposed are put in place. Most of that growth will
come from China, India and the Middle East, where the consuming class
is growing rapidly. The consequences are “potentially far-reaching”
for global energy markets and trade, the report said.
Dr. Birol noted, for example, that Middle Eastern oil once bound for
the United States would probably be rerouted to China. American-mined
coal, facing declining demand in its home market, is already heading
to Europe and China instead.
There are several components of the sudden shift in the world’s energy
supply, but the prime mover is a resurgence of oil and gas production
in the United States, particularly the unlocking of new reserves of
oil and gas found in shale rock. The widespread adoption of techniques
like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has made those
reserves much more accessible, and in the case of natural gas,
resulted in a vast glut that has sent prices plunging.
The report predicted that the United States would overtake Russia as
the leading producer of natural gas in 2015.
The strong statements and specific predictions by the energy agency
lend new weight to trends that have become increasingly apparent in
the last year.
“This striking conclusion confirms a lot of recent projections,” said
Michael A. Levi, senior fellow for energy and environment at the
Council on Foreign Relations.
Formed in 1974 after the oil crisis by a group of oil-importing
nations, including the United States, the International Energy Agency
monitors and analyzes global energy trends to ensure a safe and
sustainable supply.
Mr. Levi said that the agency’s report was generally “good news” for
the United States because it highlighted the nation’s new sources of
energy. But he cautioned that being self-sufficient did not mean that
the country would be insulated from seesawing energy prices, since
those oil prices are set by global markets.
“You may be somewhat less vulnerable to price shocks and the U.S. may
be slightly more protected, but it doesn’t give you the energy
independence some people claim,” he said.
Also, he noted, the agency’s projection of United States self-
sufficiency assumed that the country would improve gas mileage in cars
and energy efficiency in homes and appliances. “It’s supply and demand
together that adds up to this striking conclusion,” Mr. Levi said.
Dr. Birol said the agency’s prediction of increasing American self-
sufficiency was 55 percent a reflection of more oil production and 45
percent a reflection of improving energy efficiency in the United
States, primarily from the Obama administration’s new fuel economy
standards for cars. He added that even stronger policies to promote
energy efficiency were needed in the United States and many other
countries.
The report said that several other factors could also have a large
impact on world energy markets over the next few years. These include
the recovery of the Iraqi oil industry, which would lead to new
supply, and the decision by some countries, notably Germany and Japan,
to move away from nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster.
The new energy sources will help the United States economy, Dr. Birol
said, providing continued cheap energy relative to the rest of the
world. The energy agency estimates that electricity prices will be
about 50 percent cheaper in the United States than in Europe, largely
because of a rise in the number of power plants fueled by cheap
natural gas, which would help American industries and consumers.
But the message is more sobering for the planet, in terms of climate
change. Although natural gas is frequently promoted for being
relatively low in carbon emissions compared to oil or coal, the new
global energy market could make it harder to prevent dangerous levels
of warming.
The United States’ reduced reliance on coal will just mean that coal
moves to other places, the report says. And the use of coal, now the
dirtiest fuel, continues to rise elsewhere. China’s coal demand will
peak around 2020 and then stay steady until 2035, the report
predicted, and in 2025, India will overtake the United States as the
world’s second-largest coal user.
The report warns that no more than one-third of the proved reserves of
fossil fuels should be used by 2050 to limit global warming to 2
degrees Celsius, as many scientists recommend.
Such restraint is unlikely without a binding international treaty by
2017 that requires countries to limit the growth of their emissions,
Dr. Birol said. He added that pushing ahead with technologies that
could capture and store carbon dioxide was also crucial.
“The report confirms that, given the current policies, we will blow
past every safe target for emissions,” Mr. Levi said. “This should put
to rest the idea that the boom in natural gas will save us from that.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html
-----
- gpsman
U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
the International Energy Agency said Monday.
That increased oil production, combined with new American policies to
improve energy efficiency, means that the United States will become
“all but self-sufficient” in meeting its energy needs in about two
decades — a “dramatic reversal of the trend” in most developed
countries, a new report released by the agency says.
“The foundations of the global energy systems are shifting,” Fatih
Birol, chief economist at the Paris-based organization, which produces
the annual World Energy Outlook, said in an interview before the
release. The agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy
issues, had previously predicted that Saudi Arabia would be the
leading producer until 2035.
The report also predicted that global energy demand would grow between
35 and 46 percent from 2010 to 2035, depending on whether policies
that have been proposed are put in place. Most of that growth will
come from China, India and the Middle East, where the consuming class
is growing rapidly. The consequences are “potentially far-reaching”
for global energy markets and trade, the report said.
Dr. Birol noted, for example, that Middle Eastern oil once bound for
the United States would probably be rerouted to China. American-mined
coal, facing declining demand in its home market, is already heading
to Europe and China instead.
There are several components of the sudden shift in the world’s energy
supply, but the prime mover is a resurgence of oil and gas production
in the United States, particularly the unlocking of new reserves of
oil and gas found in shale rock. The widespread adoption of techniques
like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has made those
reserves much more accessible, and in the case of natural gas,
resulted in a vast glut that has sent prices plunging.
The report predicted that the United States would overtake Russia as
the leading producer of natural gas in 2015.
The strong statements and specific predictions by the energy agency
lend new weight to trends that have become increasingly apparent in
the last year.
“This striking conclusion confirms a lot of recent projections,” said
Michael A. Levi, senior fellow for energy and environment at the
Council on Foreign Relations.
Formed in 1974 after the oil crisis by a group of oil-importing
nations, including the United States, the International Energy Agency
monitors and analyzes global energy trends to ensure a safe and
sustainable supply.
Mr. Levi said that the agency’s report was generally “good news” for
the United States because it highlighted the nation’s new sources of
energy. But he cautioned that being self-sufficient did not mean that
the country would be insulated from seesawing energy prices, since
those oil prices are set by global markets.
“You may be somewhat less vulnerable to price shocks and the U.S. may
be slightly more protected, but it doesn’t give you the energy
independence some people claim,” he said.
Also, he noted, the agency’s projection of United States self-
sufficiency assumed that the country would improve gas mileage in cars
and energy efficiency in homes and appliances. “It’s supply and demand
together that adds up to this striking conclusion,” Mr. Levi said.
Dr. Birol said the agency’s prediction of increasing American self-
sufficiency was 55 percent a reflection of more oil production and 45
percent a reflection of improving energy efficiency in the United
States, primarily from the Obama administration’s new fuel economy
standards for cars. He added that even stronger policies to promote
energy efficiency were needed in the United States and many other
countries.
The report said that several other factors could also have a large
impact on world energy markets over the next few years. These include
the recovery of the Iraqi oil industry, which would lead to new
supply, and the decision by some countries, notably Germany and Japan,
to move away from nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster.
The new energy sources will help the United States economy, Dr. Birol
said, providing continued cheap energy relative to the rest of the
world. The energy agency estimates that electricity prices will be
about 50 percent cheaper in the United States than in Europe, largely
because of a rise in the number of power plants fueled by cheap
natural gas, which would help American industries and consumers.
But the message is more sobering for the planet, in terms of climate
change. Although natural gas is frequently promoted for being
relatively low in carbon emissions compared to oil or coal, the new
global energy market could make it harder to prevent dangerous levels
of warming.
The United States’ reduced reliance on coal will just mean that coal
moves to other places, the report says. And the use of coal, now the
dirtiest fuel, continues to rise elsewhere. China’s coal demand will
peak around 2020 and then stay steady until 2035, the report
predicted, and in 2025, India will overtake the United States as the
world’s second-largest coal user.
The report warns that no more than one-third of the proved reserves of
fossil fuels should be used by 2050 to limit global warming to 2
degrees Celsius, as many scientists recommend.
Such restraint is unlikely without a binding international treaty by
2017 that requires countries to limit the growth of their emissions,
Dr. Birol said. He added that pushing ahead with technologies that
could capture and store carbon dioxide was also crucial.
“The report confirms that, given the current policies, we will blow
past every safe target for emissions,” Mr. Levi said. “This should put
to rest the idea that the boom in natural gas will save us from that.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html
-----
- gpsman
Paul D. DeRocco
Nov 15, 2012, 9:51:48 PM11/15/12
to
> On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
>
> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>
> U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>
> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
>
> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>
> U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>
> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
--
Ciao, Paul D. DeRocco
Paul mailto:pder...@ix.netcom.com
Larry Sheldon
Nov 15, 2012, 10:10:39 PM11/15/12
to
On 11/15/2012 8:51 PM, Paul D. DeRocco wrote:
> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
> >
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>
>> U.S. to Be World�s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
> >
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>>
>> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world�s leading
>> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>
> It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
> inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
>
I thought he had already shut it down.
>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>
> It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
> inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
>
--
Idioten aangeboden. Gratis af te halen.
h/t Dagelijkse Standaard
ICBM Data: http://g.co/maps/e5gmy
Garrett Wollman
Nov 16, 2012, 1:59:07 AM11/16/12
to
In article <AuednXzKyKfJNzjN...@earthlink.com>,
inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
part of the countries analyzed.
Of course, we will still import a great deal of oil under that
scenario -- given the global costs of transportation and refinery
construction, it will remain cheaper to export heavy sour crude to
thos countries that can make most efficient use of it, while importing
light sweet crude to use in our refineries. (Which is why it makes no
difference to U.S. energy supplies whether Keystone XL gets built or
not -- its purpose is to give Alberta a cheaper route to an ocean
port, not to supply oil to the U.S. domestic market.)
-GAWollman
--
Garrett A. Wollman | What intellectual phenomenon can be older, or more oft
wol...@bimajority.org| repeated, than the story of a large research program
Opinions not shared by| that impaled itself upon a false central assumption
my employers. | accepted by all practitioners? - S.J. Gould, 1993
Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
> >
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>
>> U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>>
>> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
>> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>
>It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
>inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
He has actually encouraged it. Note that the IEA report accounts for,
> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
> >
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>
>> U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>>
>> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading
>> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>
>It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
>inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
part of the countries analyzed.
Of course, we will still import a great deal of oil under that
scenario -- given the global costs of transportation and refinery
construction, it will remain cheaper to export heavy sour crude to
thos countries that can make most efficient use of it, while importing
light sweet crude to use in our refineries. (Which is why it makes no
difference to U.S. energy supplies whether Keystone XL gets built or
not -- its purpose is to give Alberta a cheaper route to an ocean
port, not to supply oil to the U.S. domestic market.)
-GAWollman
--
Garrett A. Wollman | What intellectual phenomenon can be older, or more oft
wol...@bimajority.org| repeated, than the story of a large research program
Opinions not shared by| that impaled itself upon a false central assumption
my employers. | accepted by all practitioners? - S.J. Gould, 1993
conklin
Nov 16, 2012, 1:05:17 PM11/16/12
to
"Garrett Wollman" <wol...@bimajority.org> wrote in message
news:k84o7r$1mdf$1...@grapevine.csail.mit.edu...
> In article <AuednXzKyKfJNzjN...@earthlink.com>,
> Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
>> >
>>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>>
>>> U.S. to Be World's Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
>>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>>>
>>> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's leading
>>> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
>>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>>
>>It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
>>inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
>
> He has actually encouraged it. Note that the IEA report accounts for,
> inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
> net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
> part of the countries analyzed.
>
> Of course, we will still import a great deal of oil under that
> scenario -- given the global costs of transportation and refinery
> construction, it will remain cheaper to export heavy sour crude to
> thos countries that can make most efficient use of it, while importing
> light sweet crude to use in our refineries. (Which is why it makes no
> difference to U.S. energy supplies whether Keystone XL gets built or
> not -- its purpose is to give Alberta a cheaper route to an ocean
> port, not to supply oil to the U.S. domestic market.)
>
> -GAWollman
>
Given how insecure the world is, why would not a pipeline from Canada to the
> Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>> > On 11/14/2012 11:38 AM, gpsman wrote:
>> >
>>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL | NYT | Published: November 12, 2012
>>>
>>> U.S. to Be World's Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says
>>> By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
>>>
>>> The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's leading
>>> oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030,
>>> the International Energy Agency said Monday.
>>
>>It remains to be seen whether Obama allows this to proceed, or tries to
>>inhibit it. He could push it back four years or more.
>
> He has actually encouraged it. Note that the IEA report accounts for,
> inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
> net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
> part of the countries analyzed.
>
> Of course, we will still import a great deal of oil under that
> scenario -- given the global costs of transportation and refinery
> construction, it will remain cheaper to export heavy sour crude to
> thos countries that can make most efficient use of it, while importing
> light sweet crude to use in our refineries. (Which is why it makes no
> difference to U.S. energy supplies whether Keystone XL gets built or
> not -- its purpose is to give Alberta a cheaper route to an ocean
> port, not to supply oil to the U.S. domestic market.)
>
> -GAWollman
>
USA be a better idea than exporting oil to China?
Paul D. DeRocco
Nov 18, 2012, 1:18:56 AM11/18/12
to
> On 11/15/2012 10:59 PM, Garrett Wollman wrote:
>
> He has actually encouraged it. Note that the IEA report accounts for,
> inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
> net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
> part of the countries analyzed.
I for one don't believe the country will put up with the kinds of
>
> He has actually encouraged it. Note that the IEA report accounts for,
> inter alia, the increase in CAFE standards in its prediction of
> net-exporter status. The report assumes *no policy changes* on the
> part of the countries analyzed.
vehicles we'd have to drive, if the fuel economy standard is raised from
25mpg to 39mpg, barring some magic new technology. And Obama seems to
harbor a profound aversion to the more likely path to energy
independence, which is shale oil and gas via fracking.
Garrett Wollman
Nov 18, 2012, 2:47:42 AM11/18/12
to
In article <xqqdnS8tCvxD4DXN...@earthlink.com>,
Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>I for one don't believe the country will put up with the kinds of
>vehicles we'd have to drive, if the fuel economy standard is raised from
>25mpg to 39mpg, barring some magic new technology. And Obama seems to
>harbor a profound aversion to the more likely path to energy
>independence, which is shale oil and gas via fracking.
"Energy independence" is a nonsensical concept.
>vehicles we'd have to drive, if the fuel economy standard is raised from
>25mpg to 39mpg, barring some magic new technology. And Obama seems to
>harbor a profound aversion to the more likely path to energy
>independence, which is shale oil and gas via fracking.
conklin
Nov 18, 2012, 11:24:49 AM11/18/12
to
news:k8a3qu$k5t$1...@grapevine.csail.mit.edu...
> In article <xqqdnS8tCvxD4DXN...@earthlink.com>,
> Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>>I for one don't believe the country will put up with the kinds of
>>vehicles we'd have to drive, if the fuel economy standard is raised from
>>25mpg to 39mpg, barring some magic new technology. And Obama seems to
>>harbor a profound aversion to the more likely path to energy
>>independence, which is shale oil and gas via fracking.
>
> "Energy independence" is a nonsensical concept.
You must not have been alive in 1974.
> Paul D. DeRocco <pder...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>>I for one don't believe the country will put up with the kinds of
>>vehicles we'd have to drive, if the fuel economy standard is raised from
>>25mpg to 39mpg, barring some magic new technology. And Obama seems to
>>harbor a profound aversion to the more likely path to energy
>>independence, which is shale oil and gas via fracking.
>
> "Energy independence" is a nonsensical concept.
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