Obama election effect on market starting Nov. 5th, opinions please.
whuds...@gmail.com
anticipate? If the Democrats get their projected 60 seats in the
Senate plus 250 in the House, would those numbers have an additional
effect? Thank you for your comments.
Walter
GoBama
com...@webtv.net
crash of epic proportions...why? because a communist leader over a
capitlaist stock market is like hiring wolves to guard your sheep...
" BARACK OBAMA IS A DANGEROUS COMMUNIST "
phil scott
immediate effect will be a huge run up in the stock market on general
world optimism that the US will cease operating like a crazed
sociopath with tanks and nuc weapons.
after that the national debt will remain.... jobs will still be
offshore... and taxes will have to be raised, sucking the blood from
the productive sector, leading to a falling GDP, lower stock prices
and a further collapse in home prices.
the real cure involves cutting the balls clean off of govt, at all
levels, local, state and federal...which is not likely to happen
escept for a collapse scenario then it will be too late.... a gross
cut in the govt payrolls by 70% or so, and putting civilans to work on
the infrastructure, and legislation to limit imports somewhat in
relation to exports and similar with corporate taxation and
incentives... would help.
there is however no way in hell we will bail out of our 50T national
debt (which includes SS and medicare out 20 years)... expect a world
wide readjustment in currencies, and revaluation of the USD...
shortly maybe.
Phil scott
Phil scot
Ron Peterson
The market is irrationally depressed now, so it will go up regardless
of who wins.
Cutting military expending is the most effective way to get the
economy to recover, but Obama is going to be slow at doing so.
Obama is promising more incentives for alternative energy than McCain,
so I expect those stocks to soar, especially with solar starting to
approach economic feasibility in some areas.
I am holding on to my energy stocks, because there is no way either
candidate can get enough drilling done to match growing demand.
--
Ron
Rod Speed
> whudson1...@gmail.com wrote
>> Assuming Obama is elected on Nov. 4th, what market reaction
>> do you anticipate? If the Democrats get their projected 60 seats
>> in the Senate plus 250 in the House, would those numbers have
>> an additional effect? Thank you for your comments.
> immediate effect will be a huge run up in the stock market
> on general world optimism that the US will cease operating
> like a crazed sociopath with tanks and nuc weapons.
Unlikely given that he wants to invade the wilds of Pakistan to find bin Laden.
> after that the national debt will remain.... jobs will still be offshore...
Yep, nothing will ever reverse that now, you watch.
> and taxes will have to be raised, sucking the blood from the productive sector,
> leading to a falling GDP, lower stock prices and a further collapse in home prices.
Bet that last wont happen.
> the real cure involves cutting the balls clean off
> of govt, at all levels, local, state and federal...
That would be absolutely guaranteed to produce another great depression or worse.
> which is not likely to happen escept for a collapse scenario
Wouldnt even happen then. That didnt happen in the great depression.
Quite the reverse in fact.
> then it will be too late.... a gross cut in the govt payrolls by
> 70% or so, and putting civilans to work on the infrastructure,
Bet fuck all would do that work today except the most recent immigrants.
> and legislation to limit imports somewhat in relation to exports
That approach made the great depression much worse world wide.
> and similar with corporate taxation and incentives... would help.
Nope, it would make the recession into another great depression or worse.
> there is however no way in hell we will bail out of our 50T national debt
> (which includes SS and medicare out 20 years)... expect a world wide
> readjustment in currencies, and revaluation of the USD...shortly maybe.
Not a chance.
Michael Coburn
> On Oct 18, 10:22 am, whudson1...@gmail.com wrote:
>> Assuming Obama is elected on Nov. 4th, what market reaction do you
>> anticipate? If the Democrats get their projected 60 seats in the Senate
>> plus 250 in the House, would those numbers have an additional effect?
>> Thank you for your comments.
>>
>> Walter
>
> immediate effect will be a huge run up in the stock market on general
> world optimism that the US will cease operating like a crazed sociopath
> with tanks and nuc weapons.
Yep.
> after that the national debt will remain.... jobs will still be
> offshore...
Obama's plan is to encourage jobs HERE.
> and taxes will have to be raised,
Yes. Any sane person understands that we can't just keep doing business
on a credit card.
> sucking the blood from the
> productive sector,
Progressive income taxation does not "suck the blood of the productive
sector". That is Republican horse carp. It matters greatly what is done
with the tax proceeds.
> leading to a falling GDP, lower stock prices and a
> further collapse in home prices.
That isn't economics. It's idiotology.
> the real cure involves cutting the balls clean off of govt, at all
> levels, local, state and federal...which is not likely to happen escept
> for a collapse scenario then it will be too late.... a gross cut in the
> govt payrolls by 70% or so, and putting civilans to work on the
> infrastructure, and legislation to limit imports somewhat in relation to
> exports and similar with corporate taxation and incentives... would
> help.
More idiotology.
> there is however no way in hell we will bail out of our 50T national
> debt (which includes SS and medicare out 20 years)... expect a world
> wide readjustment in currencies, and revaluation of the USD... shortly
> maybe.
Yes. The dollar must be devalued further. Causing the price of imports
to rise. This causes the profitability of internal production to rise
and an increase in employment opportunities and wage increases. That
fixes the real estate problem.
Thank's very much....
forbi...@msn.com
I suspect one could find general trends in market sectors related
to Democratic spending priorities v.s. Republican spending priorities.
Then there are the whitehouse favorites with their no bid contracts.
darkst...@gmail.com
Gonna tank anyway.
Here's the thing: Does anybody, really now, think that someone isn't
going to put a hole in Obama before the inauguration, even if the
election is held and even FURTHER if they allow Obama to win? (Fat
chance on the latter, chubby chance on the former...)
Mike
Joe
My opinion is similar to Warren Buffett which is be greedy when people
are fearful and be fearful when people are greedy. I have recently
become fully invested after cashing out of the market 2 years ago. I
believed Oil and commodity prices would tumble and they have and the
China story couldn't substain itself without a strong American
economy.
I believe the election will have a huge impact on the market removing
uncertainty and we will see an Obama rally on Wall street as Obama's
election will represent real and needed change. I think we will see a
short sharp recesssion, but within 18 months to 2 years reach ne all
time highs on the stock market. The problems that exist arel already
be out there and new regulation will prevent them from happening
again. With nations around the world lowering interest rates and
pumping money into the system, boom times will reappear.
The stock market under Bush has actually declined in his 8 years so
that means to me it will boom under Obama like it did under Clinton.
I think Obama is extraordinarily intelligent and charismatic a rare
combination not seen since JFK. I believe Obama will go down in
history as one of the greatest presidents ever and America's fortunes
will turn around after 8 years of a disaster.
WBY...@ireland.com
wrote:
>> there is however no way in hell we will bail out of our 50T national
>> debt (which includes SS and medicare out 20 years)... expect a world
>> wide readjustment in currencies, and revaluation of the USD... shortly
>> maybe.
>
>Yes. The dollar must be devalued further. Causing the price of imports
>to rise. This causes the profitability of internal production to rise
>and an increase in employment opportunities and wage increases. That
>fixes the real estate problem.
Question - exactly what US domestic production? There isn't much left.
WB Yeats
Rod Speed
> Michael Coburn <mik...@verizon.net> wrote
Oh, just a few odd things like cars, planes, PC software, houses, movies, TV programs, music, fast food, food etc etc
etc.
And then there's the tiny matter of what any service economy produces.
> There isn't much left.
Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you have never ever had a fucking clue about anything at all, ever.
Rod Speed
> On Oct 19, 3:22 am, whudson1...@gmail.com wrote:
>> Assuming Obama is elected on Nov. 4th, what market reaction do you
>> anticipate? If the Democrats get their projected 60 seats in the
>> Senate plus 250 in the House, would those numbers have an additional
>> effect? Thank you for your comments.
>>
>> Walter
>
> My opinion is similar to Warren Buffett which is be greedy when people
> are fearful and be fearful when people are greedy. I have recently
> become fully invested after cashing out of the market 2 years ago. I
> believed Oil and commodity prices would tumble and they have and the
> China story couldn't substain itself without a strong American
> economy.
>
> I believe the election will have a huge impact on the market removing
> uncertainty and we will see an Obama rally on Wall street as Obama's
> election will represent real and needed change. I think we will see a
> short sharp recesssion, but within 18 months to 2 years reach ne all
> time highs on the stock market.
Doubt it will be that fast. It wasnt after the .com fiasco.
> The problems that exist arel already be out there and
> new regulation will prevent them from happening again.
How odd that they didnt after the .com fiasco.
> With nations around the world lowering interest rates and
> pumping money into the system, boom times will reappear.
Sure, but how long will that take ? It took 15 years after 1929 and took WW2 to do that.
> The stock market under Bush has actually declined in his 8 years so
> that means to me it will boom under Obama like it did under Clinton.
Who had the .com fiasco.
> I think Obama is extraordinarily intelligent and
> charismatic a rare combination not seen since JFK.
Who didnt actually achieve a damned thing except Vietnam and landing a man on the moon.
LBJ actually had a hell of a lot more fundamental effect on the country.
> I believe Obama will go down in history as one of the greatest presidents ever
Depends on how long it is before he ends up being executed.
America has one hell of a history on that sort of thing.
> and America's fortunes will turn around after 8 years of a disaster.
It hasnt been 8 years of disaster, most obviously with the unemployment rate etc.
phil scott
> On Sat, 18 Oct 2008 19:06:12 -0700, phil scott wrote:
> > On Oct 18, 10:22 am, whudson1...@gmail.com wrote:
> >> Assuming Obama is elected on Nov. 4th, what market reaction do you
> >> anticipate? If the Democrats get their projected 60 seats in the Senate
> >> plus 250 in the House, would those numbers have an additional effect?
> >> Thank you for your comments.
>
> >> Walter
>
> > immediate effect will be a huge run up in the stock market on general
> > world optimism that the US will cease operating like a crazed sociopath
> > with tanks and nuc weapons.
>
> Yep.
>
> > after that the national debt will remain.... jobs will still be
> > offshore...
>
> Obama's plan is to encourage jobs HERE.
>
> > and taxes will have to be raised,
>
> Yes. Any sane person understands that we can't just keep doing business
> on a credit card.
>
> > sucking the blood from the
> > productive sector,
>
> Progressive income taxation does not "suck the blood of the productive
> sector". That is Republican horse carp. It matters greatly what is done
> with the tax proceeds.
ok... you are both entirely correct..... and fatally flawed at the
same time IMO...and I think its not your error, but an oversight.
Of course you would not mean to indicate that taxation in excess of
100% of income wouldnt ruin a nation... you undoubtedly meant some
range of reasonable taxation... and of course I would agree with
you.
as govt exceeds the range of its support base, its taxation ruins its
host. You would know that of course inately, but most dont think to
be that explicit.. .. your notion would be that proper govt is not
too large... and is viable on that basis... and I agree with you there
also.
but we have grossly exceeded those limits...that is my point... did
you know that we are retiring most police and firemen in most of the
larger states, calf and NY for example at over $150,000 a year, many
at age 51? did you know that? Did you know that those costs are
70 to 80% of many cities net tax base?
did you know that many cities and state govts are going broke and some
cities filing bankrupcy on that stated basis?
Thats what Im talking about. Not limited, necessary and reasonably
paid civil service.
>
> > leading to a falling GDP, lower stock prices and a
> > further collapse in home prices.
>
> That isn't economics. It's idiotology.
>
> > the real cure involves cutting the balls clean off of govt, at all
> > levels, local, state and federal...which is not likely to happen escept
> > for a collapse scenario then it will be too late.... a gross cut in the
> > govt payrolls by 70% or so, and putting civilans to work on the
> > infrastructure, and legislation to limit imports somewhat in relation to
> > exports and similar with corporate taxation and incentives... would
> > help.
>
> More idiotology.
>
> > there is however no way in hell we will bail out of our 50T national
> > debt (which includes SS and medicare out 20 years)... expect a world
> > wide readjustment in currencies, and revaluation of the USD... shortly
> > maybe.
>
> Yes. The dollar must be devalued further. Causing the price of imports
> to rise. This causes the profitability of internal production to rise
> and an increase in employment opportunities and wage increases. That
> fixes the real estate problem.
>
> Thank's very much....
progressive taxation, any taxaton sucks the blood from a nation ....
in small amounts it enables useful govt.. beyond that when bloated
govt costs exceed the nations *net domestic product... and that goes
unchecked as it has,,,,, bankrupcy results.... the evidence of that is
our nearly 1 trillion dollar a year published deficit. ..
We are long since in that condition.....thats simply factual in
virtually any area of life or business.. .. not ideology.
The US is currently in more debt than it can hope to repay, with
obligations well over 50 trillion and rising daily, as the core of its
skilled work force retires. (80 million over the next 6 or 7 years)
you will be able to watch the repercussions unfold on the tee vee....
as they are just beginning to go ballistic in the last month.... none
of that ideology, but simply the facts of life.
The turkeys are home to roost.
Phil scott
Rod Speed
Thats never ever happened anywhere.
> and that goes unchecked as it has,,,,, bankrupcy results.... the
> evidence of that is our nearly 1 trillion dollar a year published deficit. ..
Mindlessly silly. ALL that is evidence of is the fact
that the govt spends more than it raises in taxes.
> We are long since in that condition.....
Wrong, as always. The total US tax take is nothing even
remotely resembling anything like net domestic product.
> thats simply factual in virtually any area of life or business.. .. not ideology.
Claiming its a fact doesnt make it a fact.
> The US is currently in more debt than it can hope to repay,
The same stupid claim was made during the great depression, WW2 and the Vietnam war too.
> with obligations well over 50 trillion and rising daily,
You've plucked that number out of your arse. We can tell from the smell.
> as the core of its skilled work force retires.
> (80 million over the next 6 or 7 years)
Most of those will have their retirement funded by their 401Ks etc.
> you will be able to watch the repercussions unfold on the tee vee....
> as they are just beginning to go ballistic in the last month....
We havent even seen entire city blocks put to the torch.
> none of that ideology, but simply the facts of life.
Claiming its a fact doesnt make it a fact.
> The turkeys are home to roost.
There are no turkeys and no roost.
Michael Coburn
No. You are making assumptions about the use of the proceeds and WHAT is
being taxed.
> in
> small amounts it enables useful govt..
The amount is less relevant than the efficiency. It is possible to have
high taxation and high efficiency of government. It is possible in some
cases for returns to scale to make government more efficient than the
private sector.
> beyond that when bloated govt
> costs exceed the nations *net domestic product... and that goes
> unchecked as it has,,,,, bankrupcy results.... the evidence of that is
> our nearly 1 trillion dollar a year published deficit. ..
Yet we _know_ why that deficit exists and that, for the most part, we
have been wasting the budget on Iraq and other Republican crap like tax
cuts for the rich.
> We are long since in that condition.....thats simply factual in
> virtually any area of life or business.. .. not ideology.
>
> The US is currently in more debt than it can hope to repay, with
> obligations well over 50 trillion and rising daily, as the core of its
> skilled work force retires. (80 million over the next 6 or 7 years)
This is a very shortsighted and blindered assessment. The currency can
be devalued and the debt will be moderated. There are also major gains
to be seen from technology and wages should increase dramatically because
of all the retirements.
> you will be able to watch the repercussions unfold on the tee vee.... as
> they are just beginning to go ballistic in the last month.... none of
> that ideology, but simply the facts of life.
>
> The turkeys are home to roost.
YUP! Tax cuts for the rich and huge gouts of military spending will
produce that sort of thing. As for the ballistic nature of the recent
past IMHO it was called and is still called peak oil. We hit the wall at
100mph and bounced off it. The oil price then went way down due to the
cratering of the world economy. The mess also happened at the end of the
housing bubble. We will need bottom side stimulus to re-inflate the
currency and that will halt the downward real estate prices. But there
is nothing that can be done about peak oil that will "restore us" to
where we were. Conservation and alternative energy is not some sort of
choice. It is reality, and our carefree roaming life style will be
impacted. We simply cannot continue the oil gluttony.
The dollar must be devalued or we will default. That will be felt in
much higher fuel prices.
2Penny
Mr Hudson -
The market ?? Think goose .. golden eggs .. big plans ..
need more gold .. unlucky goose .. quick/CPR on goose .. now what?
I'm not sure the goose dies, but it WILL there will be goose
blood everywhere(figuratively speaking of course).
Just my 2 cents worth,
2Penny
Ron Peterson
> On Sat, 18 Oct 2008 19:54:20 -0700 (PDT), Ron Peterson wrote:
> >The market is irrationally depressed now,
> Unless you actually look at the fundamentals and realize how fucked
> things really are.
Why isn't gold making new highs if things are so bad?
Not every stock should be depressed, especially for companies that
aren't affected by the financials.
--
Ron
Michael Coburn
The gold market is signaling a deflation.
DanB (Previously DB)
DanB (Previously DB)
> On Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:04:14 -0700, "DanB (Previously DB)"
> <a...@some.net> wrote:
>
>> Really!
>> http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html
>>
>> So, how much deflation in 2000 dollars?
>
>
Off course, you didn't answer the question. So, we were having deflation
from 1982 to 2000?
double sheeesh.
DanB (Previously DB)
> On Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:23:38 -0700, "DanB (Previously DB)"
> <a...@some.net> wrote:
>
>> retro...@comcast.net wrote:
>>> On Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:04:14 -0700, "DanB (Previously DB)"
>>> <a...@some.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Really!
>>>> http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html
>>>>
>>>> So, how much deflation in 2000 dollars?
>>>
>>> Um do you see the redline in your graph? Sheesh.
>> Off course, you didn't answer the question. So, we were having deflation
>>from 1982 to 2000?
>> double sheeesh.
>
>
> deflation is upcoming. That's a present tense scenario. And you in
> your typical contrary and deceitful way are asking about long time
> periods to avoid the obvious. It's typical moving the goal post straw
> man nonsense - which is to say your specialty.
Ok dummy,
Look at gold from 1982-2000. There is *no* signal if there was no inflation.
Look at gold from 2000-2008. If this is a signal, we have had over 300%
inflation in that interval.
Now all of a sudden we have a signal! Why is that? Where is the
fundamental correlation for thirty years if this is a reliable signal?
How about that commodities got terribly over bought in the last year and
now we are seeing the fallout?
> The graph YOU POSTED shows on the red line the deflationary signal he
> spoke of.
You are claiming a cause and effect that has no precedence. Shouting
does not make a 'truth'.
> Deal with it. Or not. But stop diverting attention and being
> ridiculous. Okay?
Now you are a usenet cop? How special.......
DanB (Previously DB)
phil scott
> On Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:23:38 -0700, "DanB (Previously DB)"
>
>
>
>
>
> <a...@some.net> wrote:
> deflation is upcoming. That's a present tense scenario. And you in
> your typical contrary and deceitful way are asking about long time
> periods to avoid the obvious. It's typical moving the goal post straw
> man nonsense - which is to say your specialty.
>
> spoke of.
>
>
> - Show quoted text -
OK I see what you mean in the pattern... its clearly one boding for a
decline in gold prices...under normal circumatances.
However, it is my view that this is not just another depression cycle
but an end of national life cycle (historically no nation has lasted
over 300 years (roman state 300, roman empire 300 more)... most 200 to
260 years...5 generations, lengthing to 260 years as the human life
span has gotten longer.
the driver is the human nature. first generation had to win the war
and survie...they struggled and raised tough kids... by the 5th
generation debauchery and decadence has set in.... the ends in that
final phase, it lasts 20 years more or less, but close to 20 years
historically, from the nations final luxurous peak to utter collapse
(not a depression, but vastly worse)
we are deeply into the phase imo.... the drivers are all in place and
taking their toll.... those do not reverse.
Collapse wipes them out. The a reboot, the reboot historically
takes 1 to 2 generations.... Russia is rebooting in one though... so
it maybe speeding up... the USA with its built infrastructure may
reboot less time, my guess 15 to 20 years or so.
Phil scott
Rod Speed
> retrogro...@comcast.net wrote
>>>>> Really!
>>>>> http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html
>>>>> So, how much deflation in 2000 dollars?
>>>> Um do you see the redline in your graph? Sheesh.
>>> Off course, you didn't answer the question.
>>> So, we were having deflation from 1982 to 2000?
>>> double sheeesh.
>> You're being your typical dishonest self. He said gold is signaling
>> deflation is upcoming. That's a present tense scenario. And you in
>> your typical contrary and deceitful way are asking about long time
>> periods to avoid the obvious. It's typical moving the goal post straw
>> man nonsense - which is to say your specialty.
>> The graph YOU POSTED shows on the red line the deflationary signal he spoke of.
>> Deal with it. Or not. But stop diverting attention and being ridiculous. Okay?-
> OK I see what you mean in the pattern... its clearly one boding
> for a decline in gold prices...under normal circumatances.
> However, it is my view that this is not just another depression cycle but
> an end of national life cycle (historically no nation has lasted over 300 years
Mindlessly silly. Have a look at Britain, France, China, Japan, etc etc etc sometime.
> (roman state 300, roman empire 300 more)...
Even sillier.
> most 200 to 260 years...5 generations,
You've just plucked those numbers out of your arse too.
> lengthing to 260 years as the human life span has gotten longer.
Gets sillier by the minute.
> the driver is the human nature. first generation had to win
> the war and survie...they struggled and raised tough kids...
Even sillier. Plenty didnt start anything like that.
> by the 5th generation debauchery and decadence has set in....
Even sillier. Britain lasted a hell of a lot more than 5 generations.
> the ends in that final phase, it lasts 20 years more or less, but close to 20 years historically,
> from the nations final luxurous peak to utter collapse (not a depression, but vastly worse)
Even sillier.
> we are deeply into the phase imo....
The same stupid claim was made during the great depression too, and
the US ended up completely dominating the entire fucking world in WW2.
> the drivers are all in place and taking their toll.... those do not reverse.
Have fun explaining WW2.
> Collapse wipes them out.
Have fun explaining the great depression that didnt.
> The a reboot, the reboot historically takes 1 to 2 generations....
Even sillier.
> Russia is rebooting in one though... so it maybe speeding up... the USA with
> its built infrastructure may reboot less time, my guess 15 to 20 years or so.
After that shit of yours above, your guess should be flushed where it belongs.