Cramer was a re-run with Lubow on it today
FrediFizzx
seems to be mostly useful for day trading.
Fred
lubow
broadcast. I was really surprised it was shown Friday. When I heard the
golden tones of my Brooklyn born and bred voice, I called Mrs. L to watch it
with me. "Oh, you're always on that stupid show with that loud obnoxious
man."
I told Cramer he's the hardest working dude in the history of show business,
next to my personal hero, Pinky Lee. I told Cramer that if Lee would throw
a chair, he would be at the other end of the studio to catch it, like Cool
Papa Bell, the base stealing champ of the Negro Leagues. It was said that
when Bell got into his hotel room and turned off the lights, he would be in
bed before the room got dark.
-- I didn't realize this until recently, but Pinky Lee was Roy Rogers'
sidekick between Gabby Hayes and Pat Brady. Crazy but true.
-- Anyway, Cramer told me that technical analysis is just a crutch. If it
helps you, fine. Do whatever is in your comfort zone.
-- For me, I am only half convinced that T/A is effective in positional
stock trading, although I do believe in the contrarian indicators like
sentiment (bad is good), the portion of oddlot shorts (the little guy
doesn't know crap) and the poll of newsletter writers (also, bad is good).
And, of course, the work of Geraldine Weiss which I have followed for many
years is partially fundie (dividends don't lie) partially techie (yields
above an historic level are buy signals).
-- In daytrading stock, I agree that T/A has more value, but how much more
value, I'm not sure. To be sure, there are some chart patterns like the
moving average bounce that seem to work. Aresh, the mad and very successful
Iranian trader, has told me that Bollinger bands are also an effective
technical tool for short term trading. I wish I had the time to learn more
about that, but I have respected the work of John Bollinger for over 20
years. I have my own methods, not based on charts, for daytrading. My
methodology was devised by "Henry," a local on the Comex but copied and
published by Welles Wilder in "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems."
I will only add that it is not for traders with blood pressure problems.
--
Lubow
"FrediFizzx" <fredi...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:5i50h5F...@mid.individual.net...
Jerry
Jerry
"FrediFizzx" <fredi...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:5i50h5F...@mid.individual.net...
FrediFizzx
news:W%cvi.40$9x4.27@trndny09...
> Yeah, they taped that in June, but they never told me when it will
> broadcast. I was really surprised it was shown Friday. When I heard
> the golden tones of my Brooklyn born and bred voice, I called Mrs. L
> to watch it with me. "Oh, you're always on that stupid show with that
> loud obnoxious man."
Funny, my wife always says about the same thing when I am watching it.
;-)
> I told Cramer he's the hardest working dude in the history of show
> business, next to my personal hero, Pinky Lee. I told Cramer that if
> Lee would throw a chair, he would be at the other end of the studio to
> catch it, like Cool Papa Bell, the base stealing champ of the Negro
> Leagues. It was said that when Bell got into his hotel room and
> turned off the lights, he would be in bed before the room got dark.
>
> -- I didn't realize this until recently, but Pinky Lee was Roy Rogers'
> sidekick between Gabby Hayes and Pat Brady. Crazy but true.
>
> -- Anyway, Cramer told me that technical analysis is just a crutch.
> If it helps you, fine. Do whatever is in your comfort zone.
>
> -- For me, I am only half convinced that T/A is effective in
> positional stock trading, although I do believe in the contrarian
> indicators like sentiment (bad is good), the portion of oddlot shorts
> (the little guy doesn't know crap) and the poll of newsletter writers
> (also, bad is good). And, of course, the work of Geraldine Weiss which
> I have followed for many years is partially fundie (dividends don't
> lie) partially techie (yields above an historic level are buy
> signals).
I get the weekly Market Edge Tech Opinion reports via Schwab and have
been watching them since last Nov. They are useful some of the time but
seem like they would lag for swing and short term position trading and
not much use at all for long term. I would like to buy most things a
bit sooner than when they switch to buy. But I think the volume
analysis might be good. They tell when a stock might be under
accumulation (or distribution).
> -- In daytrading stock, I agree that T/A has more value, but how much
> more value, I'm not sure. To be sure, there are some chart patterns
> like the moving average bounce that seem to work. Aresh, the mad and
> very successful Iranian trader, has told me that Bollinger bands are
> also an effective technical tool for short term trading. I wish I had
> the time to learn more about that, but I have respected the work of
> John Bollinger for over 20 years. I have my own methods, not based on
> charts, for daytrading. My methodology was devised by "Henry," a
> local on the Comex but copied and published by Welles Wilder in "New
> Concepts in Technical Trading Systems." I will only add that it is not
> for traders with blood pressure problems.
Yeah, I like the MA bounce also. It's uncanny how a stock trending up
will bounce off a certain moving average. I think I will stay way from
day trading. I might try to do some more intense swing trading once
this market settles down and I get my long term allocations setup a bit
better.
Fred
BrunoR
>> to watch it with me. "Oh, you're always on that stupid show with that
>> loud obnoxious man."
> Funny, my wife always says about the same thing when I am watching it. ;-)
That's precisely why I don't watch it. Him and Bartiromo have too
shrill a voice
for my taste. I used to listen to Cramer when he was on radio, and
excellent!!
When he switched to TV he really started to cater to the masses, e.g.
get 'em in
at the highest prices possible. ;-(
>
>> -- Anyway, Cramer told me that technical analysis is just a crutch. If
>> it helps you, fine. Do whatever is in your comfort zone.
He probably resents TA because his wife loves Ta. That's just my opinion!
>> -- In daytrading stock, I agree that T/A has more value, but how much
>> more value, I'm not sure. To be sure, there are some chart patterns
>> like the moving average bounce that seem to work.
Which pattern? Which MA bounce are you referring to 200, 50, or else?
>> very successful Iranian trader, has told me that Bollinger bands are
>> also an effective technical tool for short term trading.
Indeed the best tool! Also for long term trading; One needs to experiment
>> charts, for daytrading. My methodology was devised by "Henry," a
>> local on the Comex but copied and published by Welles Wilder in "New
>> Concepts in Technical Trading Systems."
Could you describe the method? Blood pressure is no problem with me!
> Yeah, I like the MA bounce also. It's uncanny how a stock trending up
> will bounce off a certain moving average.
It's not so uncanny because this phenomenon is widely known in circles.
> Fred
lubow
> Which pattern? Which MA bounce are you referring to 200, 50, or else?
I track fifty and five minutes MA.
Fifty minutes MA seems to work (anecdotal evidence). When I retire, I
*will* do some studies on this. And yes, it is well known and well
documented, but it always *seem* to work. Whether it works in real time
with real money is another story. It is an issue that is highly dependent
upon the liquidity and the B/A spread because these bounces usually occur at
times of low volume, like during the noon time counter-trend.
> >>[Aresh, a] very successful Iranian trader, has told me that Bollinger
> bands are
>>> also an effective technical tool for short term trading.
>
> Indeed the best tool! Also for long term trading; One needs to
> experiment
>
That does not surprise me. I have been watching John Bollinger since the
days of the FNN (Bollinger, Bill Griffeth, Sue Herera [nee McMahon] and Ron
Insana are the sole survivors from FNN that have continued to CNBC). Mrs. L
says Bollinger "looks like Howdy Doody."
Bollinger has always been impressive no matter what the media. Rukeyser
should have had Bollinger as a W$W guest many years ago instead of those
phonies like that Alan Bond character who managed the NBA players'
retirement fund, but kept the players' dough for himself..
>>> charts, for daytrading. My methodology was devised by "Henry," a local
>>> on the Comex but copied and published by Welles Wilder in "New Concepts
>>> in Technical Trading Systems."
>
> Could you describe the method? Blood pressure is no problem with me!
>
That I cannot do. Not even for money. The only people who know the system
have the last name of "Lubow." Not even the inventor, Henry, would tell
even his family what he did. Henry's P&S data was published in a magazine
called "Softside" after he died.
I reverse engineered the data in "Softside" to create the system. I then
validated it against tick by tick data for 30 year bonds, copper, gold and
crude light futures. In the late 1980s or early 90s futures began trading
around the clock rendering the Henry system useless because it was based on
end-of-day data. A few years ago when I saw how inexpensive stock
commissions had become, I brought Henry out of the mothballs and back tested
it against many stocks. For reasons which only my son-the-genius could
explain, the Henry system only works consistently well for stocks in one and
only one economic sector. And even then it only works for a subset of
stocks for a few years, then rotates into another subset within the same
sector. Therefore, the research never ends. Luckily, there is an
organization that provides tick-by-tick data for stocks for free, so that
certainly helps.
I later saw a variation of the system in Welles Wilder's book. It's still
in print. My advice is to look through Wilder and find a methodology in
which you feel comfortable.
But there are other reasons why I am reluctant to give details.
(1) You really need to play with a ton of assets behind you. At least
$250,000 in marginable securities and $20,000 in cash. I daytrade a basket
of stocks worth around $90,000. That translates to around $9 per day in
commissions.
(2) It is a contrarian system. Are you willing to sweat-out up to six
hours of losses per trading day in the magnitude of four or five figures?
(3) The system does not have stops. Henry was never stopped out, and he
played 30 year bond futures where the size of contract was huge. So there
were times when even the old master took it on the chin. Most people
cannot take losses comfortably.
(4) Sometimes the real time data is erratic. There were times where I made
the right buy or sell decisions according to the system, only to eventually
take a loss because the price of the opening was incorrectly reported. It's
not an excuse, just the cost of doing business.
(5) Are you willing to live your schedule around the system? E.g., You must
get sufficient sleep and be awake and alert by 9AM Eastern Time for the
9:30 AM opening. A few of my losses have occurred because I was too
groggy at the open and clicked on the wrong box.
(6) Can you isolate yourself from the world during the trading day? That
means ignoring CNBC or any other bit of financial news. You can catch up on
the news of the day at 4PM but not while you are daytrading.
(7) The expected profits per trade are rather small compared to some
people's risk tolerance. Henry called his system "lunch money" just to
give you an idea of the expected profits. For me, I use this system to
squeeze out some extra cash from the portfolio of our pension fund and I
only daytrade during my vacations. My ultimate goal is to use the Henry
system to provide spending money without having to touch principal when I
retire. By time I retire, I should have over fifty years of trading
experience and a portfolio of sufficient value where daytrading for spending
money is a reality and a great way to keep my brain from decomposing. The
alternative, sitting around pissed off at the world like 'reid,' is one
rather lousy alternative.
And most importantly... (8) Are you willing to make buy/sell/stand-aside
decisions based on what a system tells you while ignoring ALL that seems
logical at the time?
I would be glad to discuss this further if you drop me an email at
dynami...@hotmail.com
--
Lubow