What's The Market Telling Us Now?
Ekwatee
Investors who only recently moved to the sidelines have probably 'panicked out'.
This is typically the result of an insensitive or non-existent sell strategy.
Unfortunately the investor who panics-out is driven by fear, and the same
investor most likely to panic back in, driven by greed. The late-game seller
is invariably told that staying the course would have been better
than panicking out, but this is not always true. During the 1980s
Japan was enjoying one of the greatest bull markets in recorded history.
Then in 1990 the Nikkei suddenly lapsed into a downtrend and today,
10 years later, Japan is still in the dumpster!
Consider the alternative to disciplined trading. In the absence
of a sell strategy, mechanical triggers must be replaced by fear and greed,
which unfortunately are emotional triggers! In vivid contrast are the
happy campers on the sidelines, who made an early and orderly exit.
By using an emotion-free trading system, the same parameters
that issued the "red" light will be inverted and used to issue
the "green" light. Traders with 100% cash position are clearly
in the catbird's seat. Regardless of their exact point of reentry,
they'll handily outperform the buy-and-hold investor who must regain
all lost ground before his net worth will see new highs.
The so-called "market" may be measured via the $SPX, the $NYA or my favorite
the VLE. I prefer the Value Line Arithmetic because it's an unweighted index,
which provides a built-in breadth gage of sorts (A/D line). Historically,
October is the worst month for the market, and here we go again. In spite of
the very impressive rally on Friday the 13th, one-day a trend does not make.
As a point of interest, the 242-point NASDAQ pop was not even enough
to reverse the 7-day simple moving average, let alone the 14-day or 28-day SMA!
If you take a moment to launch the Value Line chart (VLE) you'll immediately see
the nasty downtrend, but more importantly you'll notice that the low close
on October 12th (1046) was "lower" than the previous major trough
on July 28th (1065). This means that solid support is still unresolved
and the recent bounce may not be sustainable. "V" bottoms are not unknown
and the market could embark on a new upleg from here, but the odds
are not favorable. The more likely scenario is a retest of the Value Line
1050 area. This level is close underfoot and if it holds will not be painful,
but if the market penetrates this level it will continue to probe deeper
in search of a floor that's able to support its weight.
In any case, do not submit to the urge to pick a bottom, because
trend following is a matter of observation, not prediction.
There's nothing to do but wait for a trend reversal to issue the "green" light,
and the longer it takes the lower the prices.
Quick Fills,
Ekwatee
Esquire360
>Date: 10/17/00 9:39 PM Central
> In any case, do not submit to the urge to pick a bottom, because
>trend following is a matter of observation, not prediction.
Pretty good advice and post
allen
Paul Morgan
closely and forget about the market fluctuations and the squiggly lines.
..........paul
scat
Ekwatee
Paul...your 'predictability' is exceeded only by your 'contempt'
My posts evidently strike a tender nerve, and that's good!
But you'll have to do a lot better than spewing politically opposed views
with a closed-mind and no objective pro-and-con explanation.
I shall continue to relay the thought process responsible for
my own extraordinary success. And like it or not, I will not flavor
what might be for some, a bitter pill to swallow.
You've worked hard to get in my kill filter, but I won't do that.
Though it's clear that you've more interested in stalking than contributing,
I'm flattered that you feel compelled to read my every message.
For instance, I've never once double-clicked on a post originated by
Paul Morgan. The reason is quite simple, I visit newsgroups to receive
or deliver information, if I don't expect either one to happen,
I won't go there.
Take a deep breath Paul, and just maybe you'll smell the roses ;-)
Nah...I doubt it.
Quick Fills,
Ekwatee
oneHandle
The Michael
fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker says time
to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless you've already
sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there today.
Paul Morgan wrote in message ...
oneHandle
>Naw. In times like these, in this year's market, it's better to listen to your
>fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker says time
>to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
>
>If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless you've already
>sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there today.
It's a deer market... run at the first sound, or freeze until it's
over ;-)
The Michael
>"The Michael" <mik...@concentric.net> wrote:
>
>>Naw. In times like these, in this year's market, it's better to listen to
your
>>fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker says
time
>>to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
>>
>>If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless you've
already
>>sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there today.
>
>It's a deer market... run at the first sound, or freeze until it's
>over ;-)
>
Well ya do what works best for ya. I still like sell high, buy low; don't like
the sound of zeroing my accounts several times over 2 years. Might have to get
a job then :)
oneHandle
I think you misunderstood me. I was using the deer analogy to say
that he who panics first in a downturn has the most cash at the
bottom, and that if you don't panic early you may as well freeze
because you're dead meat anyway.
As for zeroing accounts, the result of that depends on how much or
little you put in them to begin with, what you learn or don't learn
from it, and what else you have going; let's just say that I consider
spending $1 to learn the facts (as opposed to what you read in books)
about how to properly manage $1000 is not a bad investment at all, and
that in some ways how long a view I take of things is real close to
Namara's. If you've read everything millstox ever posted, what you
think you know may very well be correct, but you really don't know
very much about me.
I hope the market treats you well.
Paul Morgan
contempt?
I'm entitled to voice my opinion, and if you don't like it then killfile me.
Let's get a couple of things straight.
1. I don't stalk. Don't flatter yourself by thinking yourself stalked, I
read almost every post in here.
2. If I see a point of view with which I disagree, I'll often (but not
always) say so, to add balance.
3. In this case, I simply offered an alternative to worrying about market
fluctuations and following the squiggly lines. What's wrong with that? The
market fluctuates, doesn't it? The lines are squiggly, are they not?
4. I believe very strongly, as you know, that following the crowd is a
losing strategy. Apparently, you do not, so we are going to butt heads once
in a while.
5. How do you know that I don't contribute or add value if you've never
read my posts? If you did read them, you'd realize that I do both.
.......paul
"Ekwatee" <ekw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:5paruso55nvcncqg2...@4ax.com...
> On Wed, 18 Oct 2000 10:49:11 GMT, "Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net>
wrote:
>
> >Even better, pick good businesses with good prospects, follow their
fortunes
> >closely and forget about the market fluctuations and the squiggly lines.
> >
> >..........paul
>
>
>
Paul Morgan
bought them and when I'll sell them.
I don't let other people like Bob or whoever make my decisions for me, I
make my own decisions. I have remained fully invested in stocks throughout,
and my portfolio has not participated in the recent general decline.
............paul
"The Michael" <mik...@concentric.net> wrote in message
news:8skem6$4...@dispatch.concentric.net...
> Naw. In times like these, in this year's market, it's better to listen to
your
> fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker
says time
> to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
>
> If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless you've
already
> sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there
today.
>
> Paul Morgan wrote in message ...
BigDD
"Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:_LnH5.15211$9W6....@newsread2.prod.itd.earthlink.net...
> What on earth is wrong with what I said? Where's the "spewing" and the
> contempt?
>
> I'm entitled to voice my opinion, and if you don't like it then killfile
me.
>
> Let's get a couple of things straight.
>
> 1. I don't stalk. Don't flatter yourself by thinking yourself stalked, I
> read almost every post in here.
>
> 2. If I see a point of view with which I disagree, I'll often (but not
> always) say so, to add balance.
>
> 3. In this case, I simply offered an alternative to worrying about market
> fluctuations and following the squiggly lines. What's wrong with that?
The
> market fluctuates, doesn't it? The lines are squiggly, are they not?
>
> 4. I believe very strongly, as you know, that following the crowd is a
> losing strategy. Apparently, you do not, so we are going to butt heads
once
> in a while.
>
> 5. How do you know that I don't contribute or add value if you've never
> read my posts? If you did read them, you'd realize that I do both.
>
> .......paul
>
>
> "Ekwatee" <ekw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:5paruso55nvcncqg2...@4ax.com...
> > On Wed, 18 Oct 2000 10:49:11 GMT, "Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net>
> wrote:
> >
> > >Even better, pick good businesses with good prospects, follow their
> fortunes
> > >closely and forget about the market fluctuations and the squiggly
lines.
> > >
> > >..........paul
> >
> >
> >
Paul Morgan
.......paul
It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities
are wrong.
-- Voltaire (1694-1778)
"BigDD" <nospamlo...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:sus526t...@corp.supernews.com...
> Here, here!! BigDD
>
Paul Morgan
intended.
.....paul
"Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:7QnH5.15222$9W6....@newsread2.prod.itd.earthlink.net...
> I have no fear, because I know the value and prospects of my holdings, why
I
> bought them and when I'll sell them.
>
> I don't let other people like Bob or whoever make my decisions for me, I
> make my own decisions. I have remained fully invested in stocks
throughout,
> and my portfolio has not participated in the recent general decline.
>
> ............paul
>
> "The Michael" <mik...@concentric.net> wrote in message
> news:8skem6$4...@dispatch.concentric.net...
> > Naw. In times like these, in this year's market, it's better to listen
to
> your
> > fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker
> says time
> > to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
> >
> > If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless you've
> already
> > sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there
> today.
> >
> > Paul Morgan wrote in message ...
oneHandle
>5. How do you know that I don't contribute or add value if you've never
>read my posts? If you did read them, you'd realize that I do both.
>
>.......paul
Even when you're wrong, as in our FA vs TA discussions ;-)
(Just kiddin' about the wrong part, there's more'n one way to skin a
cat.)
The Michael
About #4: That's what I like about Sell High/Buy Low; taught to me by my pappy
(who may have invented it).... and it appears not to be widely used. Hope it
doesn't really catch on around here or my pappy and I will be losing out on a
good thing :)
Paul Morgan wrote in message
<_LnH5.15211$9W6....@newsread2.prod.itd.earthlink.net>...
>What on earth is wrong with what I said? Where's the "spewing" and the
>contempt?
>
>I'm entitled to voice my opinion, and if you don't like it then killfile me.
>
>Let's get a couple of things straight.
>
>1. I don't stalk. Don't flatter yourself by thinking yourself stalked, I
>read almost every post in here.
>
>2. If I see a point of view with which I disagree, I'll often (but not
>always) say so, to add balance.
>
>3. In this case, I simply offered an alternative to worrying about market
>fluctuations and following the squiggly lines. What's wrong with that? The
>market fluctuates, doesn't it? The lines are squiggly, are they not?
>
>4. I believe very strongly, as you know, that following the crowd is a
>losing strategy. Apparently, you do not, so we are going to butt heads once
>in a while.
>
>5. How do you know that I don't contribute or add value if you've never
>read my posts? If you did read them, you'd realize that I do both.
>
>.......paul
>
>
>"Ekwatee" <ekw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>news:5paruso55nvcncqg2...@4ax.com...
>> On Wed, 18 Oct 2000 10:49:11 GMT, "Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net>
>wrote:
>>
>> >Even better, pick good businesses with good prospects, follow their
>fortunes
>> >closely and forget about the market fluctuations and the squiggly lines.
>> >
>> >..........paul
>>
>>
>>
Paul Morgan
You don't have to add frequent explanations ("just kidding", etc); please
don't feel you're walking on eggshells when replying to me. I think that
we've finally figured out that no-one means any ill will :-)
I know that my own posts often appear pompous or mean; I don't intend them
to be, it's just the way that I write them, so I very much appreciate the
fact that you haven't taken them the wrong way even though you often had a
perfect right to.
And I still think that TA sucks, nyaa, nyaa
...........paul
Health Tip #823: Baloney isn't supposed to be crunchy.
"oneHandle" <laf...@life.nomail> wrote in message
news:tu7susoanet79tjj7...@4ax.com...
> "Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> >5. How do you know that I don't contribute or add value if you've never
> >read my posts? If you did read them, you'd realize that I do both.
> >
> >.......paul
>
Paul Morgan
Don't worry, sell high/buy low won't catch on, majority philosophy round
here is buy high and pray for higher :-)
..............paul
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
-- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
"The Michael" <mik...@concentric.net> wrote in message
news:8sl9jh$p...@dispatch.concentric.net...
oneHandle
>Hey, let's get another thing straight:
>
>You don't have to add frequent explanations ("just kidding", etc); please
>don't feel you're walking on eggshells when replying to me. I think that
>we've finally figured out that no-one means any ill will :-)
It's about damn time!
>I know that my own posts often appear pompous or mean; I don't intend them
>to be, it's just the way that I write them, so I very much appreciate the
>fact that you haven't taken them the wrong way even though you often had a
>perfect right to.
Likewise.
>And I still think that TA sucks, nyaa, nyaa
You're still wrong, but I don't hold it against you.
>...........paul
>Health Tip #823: Baloney isn't supposed to be crunchy.
Fred: "Wow man, this green jello is really good!"
Pete: "Green?"
Bruno R
closely anymore, but whatever happened to the VLE "geometric" index? Is
it still in use somewhere (even computed?). Personally I tend to look
more at the SPZ0 for directions. 200-D SMA and 15-D SMA will do fine.
I also think that we may have a substantial rally as of 101800 before
going down further, because of fundamental overvaluations that still
plague many issues. Time will tell. I always used to say that if you
can live with your portfolio at 1/10 of its present value you're doing
all right. As you hinted on previously, even good stocks will go down on
occasion. Been there, done it, got to know when to hold 'em, got to
know when to fold 'em. Can't advise anyone else!!
> In any case, do not submit to the urge to pick a bottom, because
> trend following is a matter of observation, not prediction.
Ekwatee
>It's always good to read some "good" TA stuff :-)
Thanx
>I don't follow it too closely anymore, but whatever happened to the VLE "geometric" index?
> Is it still in use somewhere (even computed?).
I would imagine it's still out there, but don't know for sure.
I should point out though, that unlike the arithmetic average,
the geometric rendition demonstrates an annoying downside bias.
>I also think that we may have a substantial rally as of 101800 before
>going down further, because of fundamental overvaluations that still
>plague many issues. Time will tell.
The volatility of late would suggest that the market is 'base-building'.
Today's panic sell-off may very well have marked a climatic bottom.
I have a large covey of promising stocks in my sights
and an itchy trigger finger, but as you said, "time will tell" >( ;-))=
Quick Fills,
Ekwatee
nldgr
It is only dangerous if they know who you are; silly boy.
Dr. Tormento
<pau...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>What on earth is wrong with what I said? Where's the "spewing" and the
>contempt?
>
>I'm entitled to voice my opinion, and if you don't like it then killfile me.
>
>Let's get a couple of things straight.
>
>1. I don't stalk. Don't flatter yourself by thinking yourself stalked, I
>read almost every post in here.
>
>2. If I see a point of view with which I disagree, I'll often (but not
>always) say so, to add balance.
>
>3. In this case, I simply offered an alternative to worrying about market
>fluctuations and following the squiggly lines. What's wrong with that? The
>market fluctuates, doesn't it? The lines are squiggly, are they not?
One of the oddest things I see on this newsgroup is how the original
posters criticize every rebuttal as being closed minded. If the
original poster is so openminded, why is he criticizing the rebuttal?
Paul Morgan
..............paul
"Dr. Tormento" <rfo...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:39ee693e....@netnews.att.net...
Ekwatee
> One of the oddest things I see on this newsgroup is how the original
>posters criticize every rebuttal as being closed minded. If the
>original poster is so openminded, why is he criticizing the rebuttal?
The original poster has been coming to this forum since 1994.
During that time he has experienced far too little "rebuttal"
to satisfy his love for debate and forum (check his history).
A hobbyist named Paul Morgan is not in engaged in rebuttal,
unless that includes a game of stalk-and-harrass (check the scroll).
The original poster has been a long-term investor for *many years*
before he became a successful as a self-taught intermediate-term trader.
He does not come to newsgroups to thump-his-chest, to chat or predict.
In a give-back gesture, he has generously shared his hard-won findings
with studious investors with a desire to broaden their horizon.
Over the years the original poster has made a throng of e-mail buddies.
This is where he engages in serious responses and in-depth exchanges,
not in newsgroups. In fact, a radio silence in newsgroups usually means
he's up to his eyeballs in e-mail, which he gives top priority.
If you feel the original poster has a bad attitude, is closed-minded,
or you just don't like him, feel free to flame him right here in newsgroups.
But if you have a serious question about stock selection or trade timing
it might be better to contact him through e-mail.
Quick Fills,
Ekwatee
Paul Morgan
If you don't like being disagreed with, then killfile me.
.........paul
"Ekwatee" <ekw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:t2qtusod70dmsflc6...@4ax.com...
Art
What the hell are you talking about ?. Do you know ?. I don't think so.
You sound like you are overly impressed with your self importance like
most control freaks.
In article <0igpus484dip3mp3h...@4ax.com>,
> Quick Fills,
> Ekwatee
>
>
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
Burt
for whoever said that the value of a stock has anything to do with value and
or prospects was probably working for a brokerage and trying to sell
something meaning maybe it has more to do with sentiment and perceived value
of the rest of the suckers out there?
Paul Morgan <pau...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:PYoH5.9$131....@newsread2.prod.itd.earthlink.net...
> Sorry, just reread this post, and it sounds a bit pompous. No offense
> intended.
>
> .....paul
>
> "Paul Morgan" <pau...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:7QnH5.15222$9W6....@newsread2.prod.itd.earthlink.net...
> > I have no fear, because I know the value and prospects of my holdings,
why
> I
> > bought them and when I'll sell them.
> >
> > I don't let other people like Bob or whoever make my decisions for me, I
> > make my own decisions. I have remained fully invested in stocks
> throughout,
> > and my portfolio has not participated in the recent general decline.
> >
> > ............paul
> >
> > "The Michael" <mik...@concentric.net> wrote in message
> > news:8skem6$4...@dispatch.concentric.net...
> > > Naw. In times like these, in this year's market, it's better to
listen
> to
> > your
> > > fears at market highs and when someone you trust, like say Bob Brinker
> > says time
> > > to sideline a boatload of cash, sell high and just do it.
> > >
> > > If you don't have a job, you sure can't do much buying low unless
you've
> > already
> > > sold high ahead of time. Bob's got many smiling listeners out there
> > today.
> > >
> > > Paul Morgan wrote in message ...
Namara
used to be so bold day traders don't hear so good!
Lovin it!