Who was it that said shorting NTAP was "financial suicide"?
aero...@flight.net
BuffetHater
> Also, a dart throw at the SOX would have paid off big time....
Don't gloat. The up 10% and down 10% inside of the same week
gives us a 90% assurance we are going into the Greater Depression.
Bear Market Depression symptoms (as i stated many times) rallies
are sharper and shorter with less levity. Now the hedge funds
implode,
boomers not yet out will be by friday as they cash in 401K's.
Of course i'm short the market but its sad to see that life as we know
it will soon be at 3rd world levels. How many hedges can Paulson
bail out? How many mutual funds? How is the public gonna accept
a bail out across the board?
The part that pisses me off worst. . . . . Cramer was right about
something
for the first time ever.
raylopez99
> On Oct 15, 4:27 pm, aeron...@flight.net wrote:
>
> > Also, a dart throw at the SOX would have paid off big time....
>
> Don't gloat. The up 10% and down 10% inside of the same week
> gives us a 90% assurance we are going into the Greater Depression.
Greater Depression? A neolism, just Googled it. Greater > Great, I
see. They've been using this in the survivalist literature for the
past few years I see.
>
> Bear Market Depression symptoms (as i stated many times) rallies
> are sharper and shorter with less levity. Now the hedge funds
> implode,
> boomers not yet out will be by friday as they cash in 401K's.
Boomers have been conditioned by Bogle to buy and hold, no? But since
the S&P500 is negative from where it was 10 years ago, dividends
reinvested (it was even exactly a month ago), you might have a point.
Capitulation was not last Friday, but coming up.
>
> Of course i'm short the market but its sad to see that life as we know
> it will soon be at 3rd world levels.
I'm short, but not net short. Are you net short? Going down better
than going up? I hear a lot from my friends that they "cashed out of
the stock market six months ago" (two people told me this, this week)
but I have suspicions they're fibbing. Like buying a car, you always
say you underpaid, and buying a house, the opposite (in recent times
the latter has been literally true).
> How many hedges can Paulson
> bail out? How many mutual funds? How is the public gonna accept
> a bail out across the board?
>
The good news: if Paulson fails then the public might wean itself off
Big Government (maybe, but never underestimate the stupidity of the
American people I've learned).
> The part that pisses me off worst. . . . . Cramer was right about
> something
> for the first time ever.
Good one. I think he surprised himself. In the back of his mind I'm
sure he doesn't believe anything he says, and knows it's
entertainment.
RL
aero...@flight.net
<Buffet...@gmail.com> wrote:
>On Oct 15, 4:27 pm, aeron...@flight.net wrote:
>> Also, a dart throw at the SOX would have paid off big time....
>
>Don't gloat. The up 10% and down 10% inside of the same week
>gives us a 90% assurance we are going into the Greater Depression.
Not gloating, just showing how dangerous this "market" is, even with
good companies...This manipulation causes all boats to float with the
tide, so rather than good stocks being rewarded, and bad stocks
punished, the entire "market" is either punished or rewarded...That of
course means that bad stocks soar, and good stocks plunge...
No longer can an average investor research a company and make
decisions based on that research...There's plenty of companies out
there with bright futures and strong balance sheets, whose stocks have
been decimated...This is the result of the widespread manipulation of
the "market"...When a billion dollars heads down the throat of the S&P
futures, even companies that are losing money see their stocks soar..
The "market" has been so inflated with artificial liquidity, that I
don't know how it can revalue properly, unless the stocks of
individual companies are left to stand and peform on their own...The
"market" itself is now a potpourri of toxic paper, with valuations
totally out of whack...Until the incessant manipulation of the
"market" ends, all bets are off...
The pain the "market" is feeling now was only exacerbated by the
manufactured "rally" to 14K...Had that not occured, the cliff would
have been much lower, and the fall much easier to survive...
BuffetHater
and your future.
I'd be hiding in the bush if they got any dumber. . . . sorry, forgot,
already in the bush hiding.
Bill Reid
raylopez99 <raylo...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:b1bccd9f-f2b2-49ed...@l77g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
> I hear a lot from my friends that they "cashed out of
> the stock market six months ago" (two people told me this, this week)
> but I have suspicions they're fibbing. Like buying a car, you always
> say you underpaid, and buying a house, the opposite (in recent times
> the latter has been literally true).
Of course...I remember one of the greatest quotes back during the
crash of 1987. Some smart-ass Wall Street analyst said that six
months from now, you won't be able to find a single person that lost
money in the crash. They will all say they cashed out during the
summer, then expertly bought stocks at the nadir of the crash.
We've already seen it here today in "modern" times, when "Lowbrow"
averred out of clear blue sky that he cashed out in July. This is doubly
brilliant in that last year he constantly exhorted people to buy stocks
every time the market had one of its scary dips, with his absurd
anecdotes about how he expertly bought the bottom of the 1987
crash...and you can bet that if the market recovers sharply in the
next few months, he'll come in here after the fact again and make
the same claim...
HERE'S the reality...I remember this "older gentleman" at work in
1987. He literally looked like he was going to cry as he was holding
in shaking hands his mutual fund statements that had been decimated,
then he called them up and cashed out everything, just about at the very
bottom of the market for the next 20 years. Two years later because of
a hostile take-over and some contract losses, they laid off about
2/3rds of the company (actually, eventually everybody at that location),
and he was the first to go. I heard from friends that he died completely
broke about a year and half after he got laid off (it seems like about
half the people there died shortly after that, my boss there died
of cancer about three years after I accepted an offer with another
company with a 55% pay increase)...
And THAT'S the way it goes in our "capitalist utopias"...
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1224
BuffetHater
> Post count: 1224
Hey Weed, Bluhh wants to do a nude of you in the bathroom, send him
an email to join his enema club, you'd both benefit. . . . in between
Ferrari
tune ups you goats scrotum.
> I've always wondered if his computer is in the john........
> He never seems to stop posting long enough to relieve himself........
> I can perceive a picture of a guy sitting on the pot, pounding away at a
> computer on his lap, next to a picture in the dictionary entitled "Get A
> Life".........
raylopez99
Bill Reid wrote:
>
> And THAT'S the way it goes in our "capitalist utopias"...
>
That's a good war story Bill Reid, thanks.
Wild day today, eh? Up 100 down 300 up 400.
I doubled down on my DXD, and got burnt...again. Oh well it's only a
paper loss so far.
But here's what I can't figure out: aside from manipulation (which is
hard to prove, though Aeron has it figured out), they say the market
went up today because people don't know if we're in recession or not.
But that logic is spurious since we clearly have to be heading to
recession, unless this is a 1987 type event.
Another thing: oil is at $70, and they say people were buying for
this reason, under the theory cheaper oil is better for companies, but
oil only goes down so far and fast if demand (or expected demand) goes
down, which is a sign we're in a recession.
All very strange--we live in volatile times.
RL
Bill Reid
> Bill Reid wrote:
> >
> > And THAT'S the way it goes in our "capitalist utopias"...
> >
> That's a good war story Bill Reid, thanks.
>
> Wild day today, eh? Up 100 down 300 up 400.
100% predictable:
From: "Bill Reid"
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: WTF is going on?
Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008
...
Where do we go from here? Well, one thing we can say with
100% certainty, is that in the next few days, weeks, months
and maybe even years, you will see large daily moves in BOTH
directions that seem to "come out of nowhere", but are really
a direct result of what has happened the last few weeks...think
of them as after-shocks, if indeed they aren't part of a larger
on-going trend in the market...
...
---end of archived article excerpt
The bottom line is you have to take this "unexpected" volatility
into account when trading...we may get into a situation where it
appears the market is moving up steadily (or down), volatility is
down substansially, and BAMMMM!!!!, you'll have a wild swing,
again completely "unexpected", unless you've done a much
historical statistical analysis of the markets as I have, and
understand the mechanism that causes this (and no, it isn't
the "PPT")...
> I doubled down on my DXD, and got burnt...again. Oh well it's only a
> paper loss so far.
Because of the increased volatility, you have to factor in greater
risk to determine an "optimal" portfolio allocation...
> But here's what I can't figure out: aside from manipulation (which is
> hard to prove, though Aeron has it figured out),
He SAYS he's figured it out...remember, today is just the day he
appears to be right, yesterday he was wrong, overall, he's flippin'
broken clocks...
> they say the market
> went up today because people don't know if we're in recession or not.
One thing that's true about what "they" say about why the market
went up or down today: "they" are generally just making up the "reason"
out of thin air...
> But that logic is spurious since we clearly have to be heading to
> recession, unless this is a 1987 type event.
Well, it's NOT a "1987 type event", it's a little more fundamentally
economically serious than THAT (which was almost entirely a weird
short-term stock market-only event caused by the Tax Reform Act of
1986), but even 1987 had the potential to completely unhinge the
larger economy, and destroyed world stock markets for years
(some shut down for a week, only to re-open and lose like
70% of their value).
Here we have had several $trillion (and growing, uncertainly) ripped
out of the global "money supply", so it's gonna hurt a little more than
the largely short-term "paper" stock market losses in 1987...and it
may be part of larger pattern of losses that have been foreseen for
decades, it may just play right into what has been predicted for
the future for years...
> Another thing: oil is at $70, and they say people were buying for
> this reason, under the theory cheaper oil is better for companies, but
> oil only goes down so far and fast if demand (or expected demand) goes
> down, which is a sign we're in a recession.
Historically, the stock market tends to recover months before the
economy does, which leads some to say the stock market "predicts"
the end of recessions, and in some cases might even appear to be totally
unconnected to the economic outlook. I for one believe that this
happens for orthogonal but not completely coincidental reasons.
Basically, the credit cycle easing of interest rates drives demand for
stocks before there is an uptick in demand for credit as part of a
strengthening economy...and let's not forget NOW that stocks rose
50% in four months in late 1929 to early 1930, and we ALL know
how well the stock market predicted THAT recovery.
Bottom line, don't necessarily expect a perfectly time-matched
correlation between the stock market and the future of the economy...
> All very strange--we live in volatile times.
Kind of the same old, same old, seen this several times before,
will see it several times again (global panics, bank failures, stock
market crashes, real estate crashes, recessions, etc.)...but am
looking for the "connectors", the things that converge and reinforce
each other to create the broad trend that will be our future...
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1226
raylopez99
>
> Kind of the same old, same old, seen this several times before,
> will see it several times again (global panics, bank failures, stock
> market crashes, real estate crashes, recessions, etc.)...but am
> looking for the "connectors", the things that converge and reinforce
> each other to create the broad trend that will be our future...
>
OK thanks Bill Reid, keep posting. Below is another anomaly--triple
witching today but it's calm so far...bizarre. And gold is down to
780, despite the promise (certainty?) of future inflation...a sucker's
trap to get people to sell? Recalling how the market always does
stuff to fool the majority.
RL
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market's wildest swings since
1929 are getting a dose of more volatility as almost 80 million
options expire today.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 4 percent from its low to its
high today, or almost twice the average gap in 2008. The measure added
0.9 percent to 954.74 at 11:09 a.m. in New York as billionaire
investor Warren Buffett's advice to buy shares overshadowed reports
showing the housing slump and consumer confidence worsened.
Owners of the contracts on stocks, indexes and exchange- traded funds
have until today's close to take advantage of the rights granted by
their calls and puts. Investors are preparing for the possibility that
market makers will boost volatility by buying and selling stock to
hedge the risk of the option trades they have facilitated.
``I'd expect some fireworks,'' said Herb Kurlan, president of Vtrader
Pro LLC, a San Francisco-based options and futures brokerage. ``The
unwinding of positions is going to be more pronounced because of the
high volatility.''
About a quarter of the approximately 337 million existing options
expire today, according to Chicago-based Options Clearing Corp., which
settles all trading of U.S. exchange-listed contracts and is the
world's largest derivatives clearinghouse.
Bill Reid
On Oct 16, 6:45 pm, "Bill Reid" <hormelf...@happyhealthy.net> wrote:
> >
> > Kind of the same old, same old, seen this several times before,
> > will see it several times again (global panics, bank failures, stock
> > market crashes, real estate crashes, recessions, etc.)...but am
> > looking for the "connectors", the things that converge and reinforce
> > each other to create the broad trend that will be our future...
> >
> OK thanks Bill Reid, keep posting. Below is another anomaly--triple
> witching today but it's calm so far...bizarre.
Didn't look that "calm" to me, but I guess it's all relative...
> And gold is down to
> 780, despite the promise (certainty?) of future inflation...a sucker's
> trap to get people to sell?
Why is inflation a "certainty"? At least in the short term, we've had
$trillions ripped out of the capital base of the world's economy, and we're
seeing incredible deflation of real estate, commodities, financial markets,
etc., as a result. I would think that "gold bugs" would be HAPPY that
gold is not trading down as much as say, oil...
> Recalling how the market always does
> stuff to fool the majority.
The market IS the "majority", they fool themselves...
> Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market's wildest swings since
> 1929 are getting a dose of more volatility as almost 80 million
> options expire today.
Yeah, people love to fret over "triple-witching", but of course many
times it's just a big yawn...but that doesn't stop people from fretting
about it the next time it comes around...
As I've said, people almost always "trade their positions", they look
at how much money they've made or lost on their trades and react in
relatively predicatable fashion. And "triple-witching" is just the most
direct and sure application of that principle, since they have no real
choice in the matter. If you know where their positions are, you know
EXACTLY what they're gonna do, because of course, they HAVE to
do it...
But all those instruments trade prior to the last day in anticpation
that the last day is coming, so you might want to look a few days
earlier to see how people are "unwinding" what they've gotten themselves
into...and knowing where they're at is a pretty good indicator of what
they're gonna do...
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1227