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The Liquidmetal Technologies Bullish Thesis
May 10, 2012 | 26 comments | about: LQMT.OB
Liquidmetal Technologies (LQMT.OB) is a $46 million market cap materials
company that has one of the most intriguing disruptive technology
stories to come out in many years. It has been an extremely volatile
stock lately, as the rumors of inclusion in the iPhone 5 come and go,
and as always with an OTC penny stock, it requires a high level of risk
tolerance. And therein lies a potentially enormous opportunity.
Liquidmetal was started as a Caltech research project in 1993 and
eventually IPO'd on the Nasdaq in 2002 with a $1 billion market cap and
$20+ share price. They eventually got delisted to the OTC after the 1-2
punch of poor management decisions and a product that was still in
research mode, and therefore not yet ready for prime time production.
However, in August 2010, Liquidmetal was able to replace its management
with experienced talent and pay off all its outstanding debt, when Apple
(AAPL) paid roughly $20 million to license their technology to be used
for personal electronics.
To learn why the world's premiere technology company would take interest
in a nearly bankrupt company in the first place, it helps to take a step
back in time to Chem 101. Liquidmetal's patented amorphous materials are
able to take the best qualities of both traditional metals and plastics.
Due to its amorphous atomic structure, liquidmetal does not take on the
crystalline shape of other metals, but rather arranges its atoms in
completely random formations, like a liquid or plastic. This allows it
to be injection-molded into extraordinary precise shapes similar to a
plastic, while overcoming the crystalline weakness and necessary
machining inherent in other metals.
This video with Jony Ive of Apple shows step by step how the current
Macbook Pro chassis is made from a solid block of aluminum:
(Video omitted form NG post Can be found at 'Seeking Alpha'
It takes "9 separate milling operations" and is an incredibly time- and
energy-intensive product to essentially drill out each nuance on each
chassis. On the other hand, this same chassis made from liquidmetal
would be superior in every way: lighter, stronger, scratch- and
corrosion-resistant, more elastic, while using dramatically less time,
energy and natural resources. It can be poured into a mold like a
plastic and be finished in minutes, instead of drilled out of a solid
piece of metal, which takes hours. The one downside to liquidmetal is a
more expensive starting material, but the speed and ease of its
precision production will more than make up for the original higher
material cost, especially when production is scaled up.
Apple is notorious for keeping all their parts and component makers
under lock and key, so its extremely difficult to find detailed
information about Liquidmetal's relationships beyond the original 2010
Intellectual Property license. This has led to what I believe is
confusion in the investment community as to what an Apple contract is,
really, and also is the source of a great opportunity.
The general shortsighted notion has been that Liquidmetal won't benefit
beyond the original $20 million license from Apple, even if they are
used in the iPhone 5, but this could not be further from the truth!
Liquidmetal's limited manufacturing capacity could never have been able
to mass produce a product for Apple on its own, so they have spent the
past 8 months partnering with world-class companies up and down the
production line. They've partnered with Materion (MTRN), a supplier of
the raw amorphous material, and with Engel to produce state-of-the-art
vacuum-injection molding machines and molds. Lastly ,they partnered with
privately held Visseras, their production partner. Therefore any future
product that is mass produced for Apple with have 3 potential revenue
streams for Liquidmetal, compared to 4 revenue streams and consequently
higher margins for every other company that wants to piggyback Apple's
use of this material.
Apple's potential inclusion of liquidmetal as a selling point in their
iPhone 5, whether strictly being used as the phone chassis, or as
PatentlyApple.com has reported over the past year, in a fuel cell
chassis, could set LQMT stock on a new trajectory and possibly lead to a
potential uplisting back to the Nasdaq - where a company that created
and owns such a disruptive technology belongs.
For you technical investors out there: Both the 20dma and now the 50dma
have broken above its 200dma, forming a Golden Cross chart formation for
the first time since the original AAPL contract in 2010.
Disclosure: I am long LQMT.OB.