what is with Meredith Whitney?
-=DirtBag©
or not..
-dirt
One other notion here to consider is that Meredith Whitney just cut her
estimates on both Goldman Sachs and on Morgan Stanley (MS) on December
17. On that day, Goldman Sachs shares fell over 2% to $160.93, but the
stock snapped back immediately. Whitney's call on Goldman Sachs
yesterday did not take the stock down for more than a few minutes until
the market got to digest the implications. In December, Whitney also cut
estimates on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Both JPMorgan and Morgan
Stanley have snapped back from any Whitney-related pullbacks.
In fairness, Meredith Whitney did make a bullish call at least as a
trading call on Goldman Sachs in 2009. It was July 13 when she raised
her rating to a Trading Buy when shares had been close to $140.00; and
she went back to a Neutral in mid-October at the peak ahead of earnings
when the stock was at $190.
When you make a career over being one of the first and most vocal about
the coming gloom and doom, it is easy to get caught up in not being able
to change your hat. Many analysts and market watchers get bogged down
only by directional thinking, meaning if the numbers are lower or the
growth is lower that it is always bad. The problem is that the market
has shown over and over how it is willing to endorse less-bad news over
and over since last March. Sometimes you can't just look at an action
about what analysts are actually saying. You have to consider what they
are trying to say.
VegasNightOwl
impending stagnant growth for quite a few years to come. People who invest
may be pulling money out of the markets and parking it in a safer location.
That means less trades for these fellas. Less trades, less income. If
people think the 00's were rough, wait until they get a load of '10s. It
could very well turn out to be our lost decade.
VegasNightOwl
"-=DirtBag�" <Di...@sonc.net> wrote in message
news:4b44dd5d$0$1965$742e...@news.sonic.net...
John Galt
> Maybe she sees what's coming down the pike with health care, the debt and
> impending stagnant growth for quite a few years to come. People who invest
> may be pulling money out of the markets and parking it in a safer location.
> That means less trades for these fellas. Less trades, less income. If
> people think the 00's were rough, wait until they get a load of '10s. It
> could very well turn out to be our lost decade.
Whitney is a bottom-up analyst. She starts with the perspective that 70%
of our economy is consumer driven, and from there looks for indicators
as to what the consumer condition will be over the near term.
She remains gloomy because she sees continued job malaise, increasing
credit card defaults, home default rates which are not improving, a huge
backlog of unsold homes still held by the banks, and such things as
that. The short of it is that we have years of debt still to unwind, and
the fact that our multinationals are looking good (driven by their
overseas business units) doesn't mean that we're all good here.
JG
-=DirtBag©
> VegasNightOwl wrote:
>> Maybe she sees what's coming down the pike with health care, the debt
>> and impending stagnant growth for quite a few years to come. People
>> who invest may be pulling money out of the markets and parking it in a
>> safer location. That means less trades for these fellas. Less trades,
>> less income. If people think the 00's were rough, wait until they get
>> a load of '10s. It could very well turn out to be our lost decade.
>
> Whitney is a bottom-up analyst. She starts with the perspective that 70%
> of our economy is consumer driven, and from there looks for indicators
> as to what the consumer condition will be over the near term.
>
> She remains gloomy because she sees continued job malaise, increasing
> credit card defaults, home default rates which are not improving, a huge
> backlog of unsold homes still held by the banks, and such things as
> that. The short of it is that we have years of debt still to unwind, and
> the fact that our multinationals are looking good (driven by their
> overseas business units) doesn't mean that we're all good here.
>
> JG
>
I haven't seen the sales numbers results (side by side) but from what
the talking heads are saying we had a good holiday sales season and by
controlling inventory the larger retailers didn't have to deeply cut
prices to move what they had. This is just good business practice.
America has trimmed its appitite some for retail but it is still buying.
Housing still is a problem.. no doubt. But it too is starting to work
its way out. Banks cant just dump the properties.. So an orderly
'adjustment' to inventory will have buyers meeting in the middle rather
than on the low end. The dollar is UP down Up Down. We are slowly
re-inflating the market.. that is the entire plan. Re-inflate the
market.. then later.. we start slowly letting out the excess air.. it
will take time but if you look at this in months not weeks it seems to
be working somewhat better than we feared..
Thanks. I value both your input.. Vegas and JG
VegasNightOwl
Your welcome, DB! I like it when people ask questions about other peoples
perceptions and views. There is always something lurking below what their
comments are or questions asked. Meredith Whitney is interesting to watch
and listen to, then try to figure out where she is going with it. Many
people discredit her, along with many others, but none of them are 100%
correct in any given time frame. BTW, anybody have a guess when the next
correction will arrive? I'm getting the feeling it's not too far off.
VegasNightOwl
ausound
$ap2...@newsfe18.iad:
> BTW, anybody have a guess when the next
> correction will arrive? I'm getting the feeling it's not too far off.
3rd Friday of the month?
VegasNightOwl
have a feeling something is brewing and not for the better. All it's going
to take is a slight breeze and things start to shift rapidly. There's
always something about January 16th. Just not sure what it is.
VegasNightOwl
"ausound" <aus...@spambog.com> wrote in message
news:Xns9CFA6CBA5508C...@216.168.3.70...
ausound
news:zk_1n.12485$XU....@newsfe03.iad:
>
>
>
> "ausound" <aus...@spambog.com> wrote in message
> news:Xns9CFA6CBA5508C...@216.168.3.70...
>> "VegasNightOwl" <joshuatre...@cox.net> wrote in news:y0D1n.2641
>> $ap2...@newsfe18.iad:
>>
>>> BTW, anybody have a guess when the next
>>> correction will arrive? I'm getting the feeling it's not too far
>>> off.
>>
>> 3rd Friday of the month?
>
>
> Ah, the options expiration day. Too obvious, but you never know. I
> just have a feeling something is brewing and not for the better. All
> it's going to take is a slight breeze and things start to shift
> rapidly. There's always something about January 16th. Just not sure
> what it is.
>
>
> VegasNightOwl
been looking at index charts all morning
I think we'll see a climax rally, peaking out the indexes into over bought
conditions and the turn of the monthly page to Monday Feb 1st will be the
beginning of the selloff
Lawyerkill
> "VegasNightOwl" <joshuatreescorp...@cox.net> wrote innews:zk_1n.12485$XU....@newsfe03.iad:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > "ausound" <auso...@spambog.com> wrote in message
> >news:Xns9CFA6CBA5508C...@216.168.3.70...
> >> "VegasNightOwl" <joshuatreescorp...@cox.net> wrote in news:y0D1n.2641
> >> $ap2...@newsfe18.iad:
>
> >>> BTW, anybody have a guess when the next
> >>> correction will arrive? �I'm getting the feeling it's not too far
> >>> off.
>
> >> 3rd Friday of the month?
>
> > Ah, the options expiration day. �Too obvious, but you never know. �I
> > just have a feeling something is brewing and not for the better. �All
> > it's going to take is a slight breeze and things start to shift
> > rapidly. �There's always something about January 16th. �Just not sure
> > what it is.
>
> > VegasNightOwl
>
> been looking at index charts all morning
> I think we'll see a climax rally, peaking out the indexes into over bought
> conditions and the turn of the monthly page to Monday Feb 1st will be the
>
> - Show quoted text -
I think if we close above 10,700 early in the week we will peak over
11,000 interday before the sell of starts, well at least that's what
my 5 year old granddaughter tells me what to think.
ausound
news:5558963f-9fc0-4b1f...@r26g2000vbi.googlegroups.com:
> On Jan 9, 12:41�pm, ausound <auso...@spambog.com> wrote:
>> "VegasNightOwl" <joshuatreescorp...@cox.net> wrote
>> innews:zk_1n.12485$XU.
> 54...@newsfe03.iad:
ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A 5 YEAR OLD?
com...@webtv.net
"menopause" ?
" FREE AMANDA "