Crude oil comes out of the ground (it gets better). There is a cost associated with taking crude oil out of the ground, refining it and then bringing it to market. This cost is reflected as a price per barral.
Heating oil (as is gasoline), is a derivitive of crude oil. There is a further cost of extracting heating oil from the crude and then bringing it to market. This total cost is reflected as a price per gallon. 1 barrel equals exactly 42 gallons. At the time of this writing, crude oil is trading at $29.74 per barrel. Heating oil is trading at .82 per gallon. Simply multiply this price by 42 and you can compare the price of heating oil per barrel with the price of crude oil. It comes out to $34.44 per barrel. And, this makes complete sense. Heating oil should be priced higher on the retail market then crude oil. And, for the most part, it is.
However, every now and then, short-term supply and demand factors actually REVERSE the price of these two markets! And when it does, the simple laws of profit REQUIRE this temporary situation to correct itself over time. And, everytime, without fail, this price inversion has occurred, it has corrected itself. Think about it. How long can any company continue to profit from selling heating oil at a lower price then what it costs to provide crude oil? 101 economics.
How do you take advantage of this opportunity? You simply buy heating oil and sell crude oil. Whether the markets go up or down or sideways, eventually, the price inversion will correct itself and you profit from the spread increase. Let me give you an example:
Crude oil is at $20.00 per barrel.
Heating oil is at $19.85 per barrel.
Buy heat, sell crude creates a spread of -.15.
6 months down the road, crude oil is at $22.00 per barrel and heat is at $24.00 per barrel. You lose $2.00 per barrel in crude oil but make $4.15 in heat. Total profit is $2.15 per barrel. Since these trade in 1,000 barrel increments on the futures market, the total profit on the trade is $2,015.00. It costs less than $1,000 to put this trade on with most brokerage houses that allow futures trading.
The average $$ spread between these two markets is approximately $4.40 per barrel! This means that if you were willing to hang onto this spread from an inverse price point to the average spread over the last 20 years, you would see a profit of at least $4,400 on a $1,000 investment. Investing doesn't get any better then this...for those who know what to look for.
I have given you one scenario, and there are many, many more very similar to the logic of this incredible opportunity...if you know what to look for. For example, how many of you bought Enron on its way down thinking that you were getting a great price? What happened? I don't care at what price you bought Enron, you didn't get a great price! Enron went to zero. Stocks can do that. But what about...oh, say...crude oil? If the price of crude oil takes into consideration the cost to bring it to market, then it only makes sense that the price of crude oil will always be GREATER then that cost! Right? Of course. But guess what. There have been times in the past where the price of crude oil dropped below that cost! We all know it is not going to zero (unless of course, there is a freak world wide disaster, in which case you can kiss all of your money goodbye anyway). Crude oil is a commodity. It is not going to go bankrupt. So you tell me, which would be a better investment? Crude oil at its cost of production, or Enron at $1?
All commodities act similar. Most brokers say that commodities are more risky then stocks. They lose a debate with me every single time. It isn't the market, but what you CHOOSE do with the market that creates the greater risk scenario.
For those who know what to look for and know how to take advantage of these opportunities, the sky is the limit! I have been doing this kind of trading since 1992. I have spent full time researching it and trading it. I have developed a 10-hour CD course on this kind of investing called Smart Trading. I have done the work for you, I tell you exactly what to look for and how to take advantage. I tell you what the risks are, I tell you what the profit expectations are, I tell you everything. I also give you a weekly update detailing the opportunities currently available and how to take advantage of them. Further, if you have questions, I have a team of 12 expert investors who will answer any of your questions.
The cost of this course for those on this site is $1,495.00. If you were to go to my website and purchase the course, you would pay $2,995.00. Further, once you receive the CD's, if you do not think these opportunties are 100% legitimate, simply tell me why and I will refund your money for the course! I KNOW you will agree that these opportunities are the best investments anyone can make from a standpoint of safety and return! Nothing even comes close!
Call me direct for questions and to order at 918-335-2923. I challenge anyone to dispute anything contained in this post.
C Lowery, (918) 335-2923, 5608 Revere Way Ct, Bartlesville, OK 74006
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:759166605552e33a...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:56b12ea0cb59c303...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
For the record: you'll gain a bit more credibility if you manage to
correctly spell the terms. *Derivitive* is spelled derivative and *barral*
is correctly spelled, barrel, numb nuts.
You're the leading candidate for the '04 Darwin Award, monkey...
arb.
P.S. My sincere hope is that the entire board repeatedly calls the number
you graciously provided -- a sort of old school DOS attack.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:56b12ea0cb59c303...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
> Oops. Guess again. Those darn online phone books are never right. You
can email me at asp...@aol.com though. And, by the way, I didn't see where
you refuted any of the information.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:759166605552e33a...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
Nice post about Crude and HO. Right on the money. If there's one thing
though you need to get used to when posting a legitimate argument such as
yours, is that the morons and the nay Sayers will quickly come out of the
woodworks from this board and want to discredit you with such idiotic and
intimidating posts like the one you received from Arb.
You see, people like him enjoy pouncing on ANY person who consistently
outperforms him and strongly believes that if you're not time spreading, if
you're not hedging , OMG...then you can't make a dime. Just ask him what was
his % return for the year so far. He also thinks he owns this board. You
need to make him understand otherwise.
In terms of getting an apology...good luck. Based on his track record...
LOL...it usually takes about a decade. So the people who've been verbally
abused by him in '93-'94... are just getting their pardon as we
speak(hehehe). So don't be surprised if you get yours in ...shall we say
2013 give or take a few months.
OptionsTrader
"Success is achieved by those who try and keep trying with P.M.A."
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:56b12ea0cb59c303...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
It was spam. Full of hype with very little on the real risks
involved with the spread he describes. The guy is just using this
newsgroup as an advertising medium to hawk is services. He deserved
every ounce of criticism he got.
-A
Oops again. You got me. I had two typos in the post...once where I typed a instead of e (you'll notice the rest of the spellings) and then another. YOu are right, throw the entire logic out the door.
Finally, name calling??? I won't stoop to that level, but I will ask you to contribute something useful, like a better opportunity then what was given. Perhaps some credentials, like how long you have traded, and whether you have ever been consistently successful.
I hope everyone calls me too. Because everyone, without 1 single exception, who has taken my course, agrees it is worth far more than the price. Not a single trader, ever, has so much as requested a refund. I can also show you many traders who have used the strategies to create substantial returns when EVERYTHING else they have tried did not work. Real statements, real money, real success. I don't know what you have against that, but you should make sure your ego isn't in the way.
Thanks for the post. I figure everyone on the boards are grown and mature enough to see the value of the logic or not for themselves without needing to be subjected to immature name calling. That is usually what happens when there is no substantial arguement being made. Thanks for the encouragement anyway though and am glad you enjoyed the post.
Ryan
My $7.5MM account is all the credentials I need, what credentials do you
have, other than spamming this NG? You've got one thing going for you,
<sic> OptionsTrader in your corner.
And you may want to cease the personal emails if you want to keep your AOL
account.
arb.
"I hope everyone calls me too. Because everyone, without 1 single
exception, who has taken my course, agrees it is worth far more than the
price. Not a single trader, ever, has so much as requested a refund."
>>> BOTH clients were satisfied? Relatives maybe?
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:458d4b16b8d0d8ba...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
> Perhaps you'll give your name so I at least know who I am talking with.
Regardless, is that the best you could come up with? You need to do some
research on the max price inversion. But regardless, it is still TEMPORARY.
Always has been, always will be. Economics 101.
>
> Oops again. You got me. I had two typos in the post...once where I typed
a instead of e (you'll notice the rest of the spellings) and then another.
YOu are right, throw the entire logic out the door.
>
> Finally, name calling??? I won't stoop to that level, but I will ask you
to contribute something useful, like a better opportunity then what was
given. Perhaps some credentials, like how long you have traded, and whether
you have ever been consistently successful.
>
Is there any harm in giving some useful information to traders? Why is it that a few want to make the decision for everyone else? Instead of allowing every mature adult capable of making their own decision on whether the information is good or not, you would rather it be censored and kept from everyone else, just because of whatever opinion you may have about it. Why don't you want others to have the right to decide for themselves? If you don't want to purchase the course, fine, don't purchase. But what kind of ego absolutely has to make that decision for everyone else?
OptionsTrader
"Success is achieved by those who try and keep trying with P.M.A.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:458d4b16b8d0d8ba...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
I don't manage anyone else's money. Don't have to.
And, as far as the email, I simply wanted to make sure I had not personally offended you in some way. What I should do is post your response back to me for everyone to see what kind of person you are. But I'll refrain. I am sending it to Yahoo though.
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:ca60301c6423b7a0...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:3b918d6f103f3341...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
There is no law against sending a personal email. Only
commercial unsolicited. Report me if you think I did
something wrong. However, there is a law against useing
email with the kind of language you sent. And, I already
reported it. You really should see an anger therapist
about these outbursts.
By the way, I am going to be in Chicago next month, perhaps we should meet for lunch or something.
Ryan
I usually get into a brawl to deal with my anger, do you wanted to
volunteer? For your sake I hope you're a giant.
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:e7395e72bbf9ed60...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:cc332e958c2c459a...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
"riskarb" <riska...@yahooSPAM.com> wrote in message
news:gURwb.5568$aw2.2...@newssrv26.news.prodigy.com...
The content of your email can be construed as pornographic
material. I'm not going to do your legal research for
you.
Are you buying lunch, or shall I?
Dude, you're a genius! <facetious remark>
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:458d4b16b8d0d8ba...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:da8737d0a85e9a5f...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
No, but you raise suspicion if that information is nothing more
than a fancy wrapper for an advertisement.
>Why is it that a few want to make the decision for everyone else?
Vendors come into these newsgroups all the time hawking their wares,
very aware that there is an audience of newbies and people who
don't know better who can become future sources of income for the
vendors. Some of us regulars in this group (which you aren't) have
seen it all too often, and offer alternative viewpoints for those
newbies to read and decide for themselves whether your stuff is
worth consideration. Sort of a consumer watchdog service, if you
will. It has nothing to do with making decisions for others.
>Instead of allowing every mature adult capable of making their
>own decision on whether the information is good or not, you would
>rather it be censored and kept from everyone else
No, but you seem to be bothered by the fact that others have come to
a decision about your product based on your writings, and responded
negatively. That is their right. Who is censoring who?
>Why don't you want others to have the right to decide for
>themselves?
I do. Just not on your terms, with you being the only one
influencing the decision. Others have a right to respond however
they wish, especially to off topic spam posts like yours.
>If you don't want to purchase the course, fine, don't purchase.
>But what kind of ego absolutely has to make that decision for
>everyone else?
What kind of ego thinks that his advertising is important enough
to post to a public newsgroup created expressly for discussion
of another topic, and that has a WRITTEN, ESTABLISHED CHARTER
prohibiting advertising? Your post wasn't even on topic for this
newsgroup! Misc.invest.options is about options trading.
In other words, you spammed. You were treated like a spammer in
return. What the hell did you expect? Did you even bother to learn
anything about this newsgroup before you jumped in?
-A
1) Pornography is not illegal, and/therefore:
2) Your opinion, or how it is construed, is not relevant.
3) You're a putz, I've changed my mind, you buy lunch...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:da8737d0a85e9a5f...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
My interest is peaked. Do you have any comment on the
ho/cl spread at all? Specifically, I would like to hear
your reasons for why the spread might become inverted and
stay inverted. I would also like to know whether you have
done your homework in finding out just how far the
inverted relationship went and for how long? I didn't
just give technical statistics behind the spread, I gave
logical reasons why the trade is a darn good one...one of
the best available in my opinion. That doesn't mean you
don't prepare for the risks that are involved, but it
doesn't negate the fact that this is a darn good trade.
And again, I'm sure most reading this stuff would like to
hear from you a better trade...for both risk, return and
probability of success.
If you can provide one, I'll be the first to admit it and
take the trade! I have no ego in the validity of the
ho/cl spread. It isn't like I came up with it or
anything. I have researched it, I have evaluated it, I
have TRADED it. It is sound, it is solid, it has the
highest probability return of any trade I know if
approached properly. I have yet to see anything that
would even remotely convince me otherwise.
And, if you can't provide any of what I asked for, then
stop posting to this thread and admit that for some unknown
reason, your only goal is to discredit me because
I "spammed" (your words) the site. Say what you want to
about me, but at least provide a truthful evaluation of the
information I gave instead of this nonsense.
I changed my mind. We'll go dutch.
To state that they're a LOCK is complete horsesh*t -- since it's a pairs
trade, they typically only make significant money when you trade them much
larger than an outright spec.
I don't have anything further case to make on the CL/HO trade, but I will
comment on oscillator or convergence trades, generally -- they're by and
large excellent positions when the timing is right -- that can be said for
ANY trade, including CL/HO. There aren't any bad positions, only bad
timing.
The LTCM comment concerned trades in on-the-run and off-the-run Tbonds,
which have a much greater correlation than the CL/HO spread -- and the
trades went very wrong -- the Fed did the underwriting on that guarantee,
not some spammer from OK.
I take issue with your "guaranteed" BS, among other comments, as it's
typical marketing hype from a spammer, and you're a typical spammer.
Who underwrites the "Guaranteed 100% return"?
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:b4e7a3488d81218b...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message news:<759166605552e33a...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com>...
I wish killfiles worked not only on the original spam, but on
all replies as well.
--
Vladimir
Did you not read my post at all? The whole point of the
spread was based on timing! I stated that the best time
for the spread was when the spread was inverted. Your
logic of CL rising and HO dropping is silly. The spread
won't be inverted UNLESS that happens first!
About the guarantee, in 1999, I spoke at OmegaWorld in Las
Vegas. And, in front of 200 people I guaranteed this
exact trade. I said I would pay for their attendence fee
that they paid Omega ($850) if they took this trade and
did not make at least $500 in 4 months. The spread at the
time was -$200 and had been as low as -$800. It hit +$300
in less than 2 weeks and within 4 months, was over
+$2,500. That session was recorded and I was on the line
for potentially $170,000 if the trade did not work out in
the time frame I gave it. Yeah, I think I did my research
first before I made that kind of proposal...and the
session was recorded, you can get the tape from OmegaWorld
is you like. I'll also give you the names and phone
numbers of a couple of people who were there and can vouch
for it.
Could the spread have gone back down? Of course. But I
don't care what you or anyone else says, that spread WILL
NOT stay inverted. It never has, the laws of economics
won't allow it. Guarantee? You bet. I'll put myself on
the line, and you won't see anyone anywhere with the guts
to do this...so pay attention. If you or anyone else on
this post takes the trade according to the logic and do
not make at least $1,000.00 within 1 year risking no more
than $2,000, I will personally cover your losses! (One
trade per person please). However, this offer is only
good based on two conditions. First, you take the course
for $1,500. Second, before you place the trade, you must
notify me and place it based on my suggestions (i.e. which
contract months, at what spread level, etc.). You don't
follow my suggestions exactly, no deal.
I'll go one better than that, I'll refund the course in
addition to covering the loss!
Of course there are risks with trading. Everyone here is
smart enough to know that. However, there are certain
types of trades, that if approached properly, and yes,
timed properly, give traders an extremely high probability
of success. That is what I am saying this trade is, and I
have put my money where my mouth is before and will do it
again.
<<I don't have anything further case to make on the CL/HO trade, but I will
comment on oscillator or convergence trades, generally -- they're by and
large excellent positions when the timing is right -- that can be said for
ANY trade, including CL/HO. There aren't any bad positions, only bad
timing.>>
And buying Enron at what price was good timing? The merit
of the ho/cl trade is not timing, it is the relationship
between the two markets. They are inextricably linked
with certain compounding factors. There are rare times in
trades that you KNOW the timing is good. May not be
exact, but if you can KNOW, based on the fundemental
relationshp of the markets, or other factors, that the
timing is good, you are 100 light years ahead of most
traders simply trying to time their bias of where they
THINK the market is going to go.
http://makeashorterlink.com/?L2C9336A6
arb.
> Could the spread have gone back down? Of course. But I
> don't care what you or anyone else says, that spread WILL
> NOT stay inverted. It never has, the laws of economics
> won't allow it. Guarantee? You bet. I'll put myself on
> the line, and you won't see anyone anywhere with the guts
> to do this...so pay attention. If you or anyone else on
> this post takes the trade according to the logic and do
> not make at least $1,000.00 within 1 year risking no more
> than $2,000, I will personally cover your losses! (One
> trade per person please). However, this offer is only
> good based on two conditions. First, you take the course
> for $1,500. Second, before you place the trade, you must
> notify me and place it based on my suggestions (i.e. which
> contract months, at what spread level, etc.). You don't
> follow my suggestions exactly, no deal.
>
Are you really this thick, or is it an act? There were dozen of long-trade
opportunities in Enron, and hundreds of short-trades. Take a look at a long
in July:
http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/AdvancedChart.jhtml?symbol=ENRNQ
"riskarb" <riska...@yahooSPAM.com> wrote in message
news:h58xb.5772$aw2.2...@newssrv26.news.prodigy.com...
Instead of just throwing out unobjective cliche's, why don't you post to everyone why the ho/cl WON'T WORK. Give them the facts about how this trade is a scam. We want to know why. I gave you why I think it does work. Give us reasons why it won't.
The bottom line is that you're attempting to sell hype at $1500 and not
finding any takes, other than the remedial OT. Made more ridiculous by
guaranteeing a $1000 return AFTER we spend $1500 for your "course" -- hope
the Excel sheets work better than the last one offered at $1200.
Sh*t hoss, looks like we be out $500 on that deal.
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:7ef3f742bfe90ee9...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
Quit avoiding the issues. And, by the way, Neil was able
to contact us, and was taken care of. This is just like
politics. I deal with the issues, you have no valid
response, and so you try to attack me personally.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:196ba5572a79c410...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
arb.
"Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:ff85e2c3f9d79818...@localhost.talkaboutinvestments.com...
YOU NEED TO SEE A DOCTOR REAL SOON.
I mean you just can't stand it when someone presents a LOGICAL highly
probable strategy that beats the hell out of yours, can you? You know what I
think of you don't you??? Well, It's thanksgiving, so I'm gonna refrain this
time but don't tempt me.
OptionsTrader
"riskarb" <riska...@yahooSPAM.com> wrote in message
news:KX9xb.5791$aw2.2...@newssrv26.news.prodigy.com...
Still pissed that I denied your request to join my listserv? Sorry sweetie,
there's an IQ prerequisite. My sincere hope is that you get exactly what
you deserve with that $1500 spent on that manual.
BTW, I am a doctor.
Bye, bye DebitTrader...
arb.
"OptionsTrader" <A...@B.com> wrote in message
news:ikbxb.23626$up3....@fe1.columbus.rr.com...
What manual?? What $1500?? are you smokin' again?? It's Thanksgiving for
god's sake. Just take a day off from that stuff. Please.
> BTW, I am a doctor.
No, you don't say. Seriously though, I still think you should see a REAL
doctor. It's for your own sake if nothing else. I mean, I don't want you to
have a stroke or something and then I have no one to beat up on this board.
I promise it will help you. Seriously, I mean it.
Bye bye Neuter boy. Happy Thanksgiving.
OptionsTrader
"riskarb" <riska...@yahooSPAM.com> wrote in message
news:bKcxb.5816$aw2.2...@newssrv26.news.prodigy.com...
I can recommend some therapists in the Columbus area.
arb.
"OptionsTrader" <A...@B.com> wrote in message
news:swdxb.28430$uw5....@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
> Arby boy, you're one F****** LIAR (as usual). Where the hell is that
request
> to enter this stupid listserv you're mentioning?????...What ??? oh, you
lost
> that email...again ...oh no. OMG... what am I gonna do with you NEUTER
boy.
> Take you out behind the shed and spank you?? I mean don't you get enough
of
> that from your butler??
BTW, did I tell you the untold story about my daddy, my grandpa AND your
mommy. Just let me know when you're ready.
OptionsTrader
"riskarb" <riska...@yahooSPAM.com> wrote in message
news:7igxb.5856$aw2.2...@newssrv26.news.prodigy.com...
Now I am really (un)impressed.
arthur
--
On Wed, 26 Nov 2003 13:42:27 -0600, "Rumery" <asp...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>........................, I spoke at OmegaWorld in Las
> Vegas. And, in front of 200 people I guaranteed this ..................