Meandering Markets

[TC5...@aol.com]

Previous postings “Marvelous Markets” and “Mirky Markets” may be of
interest... I suppose that I should stop watching cable TV since there
are so many things which I find annoying lately. Unfortunately, there are
no particular books that I want to read and I cannot reach a satisfactory
conclusion to my current game of Master of Orion II until Microprose
fixes some program bugs. Are any other MOO2 players getting the message
“You exceeded the max number of fields (150)” during fleet swaps ? If I
am posting into the wrong news group, would the moderator please let me
know so that I can take my soapbox somewhere else ? My postings are
intended to be entertaining while giving the “roach in the wall”
viewpoint of marketplaces and world events in general. For those offended
by me I suggest that you consider the probable ratio of total roaches to
roaches seen and perform a probabilistic risk assessment analysis of
consequences to determine a valid cost/benefit ratio before taking
action.

One of the first things to annoy me tonight is the nonsense being peddled
to the public by “experts” to explain what caused the worldwide problems
and the US market “correction”. One based his on astrology (seriously),
another on it being Halloween week (possibly as a joke). Well Halloween
is over, and I think some big time trick or treaters should be called to
account for their fun and games. To preface my explanations, let me
present a joke I took from the URL below. Forgive me for making use of it
without permission folks, and keep in mind that you cannot get blood out
of a turnip.

http://www.princeton.edu/~pemayer/sciencejokes/sciencejokes.6of9.txt

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not
yet ready. "I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very
sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room
with others." he is told by the doorman (say his name is Pete). Einstein
says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make
such a great fuss. So Pete leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert
is introduced to all of the present inhabitants. "See, Here is your
first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says
Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!" "And here is your second room
mate. His IQ is 150!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can
discuss physics!" "And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!"
"That’s Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!" Just
then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm
your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80." Albert smiles
back at him and says, "So, where do you think interest rates are headed?"

Albert I am not, but as a software engineer I would answer the IQ
question by asking “How much do you want it to be?” Read some of the
other jokes at the URL above to gain insight into my answer. Solving a
difficult problem is fairly simple when you have read (and are able to
remember) a sufficient number of books on a variety of topics. No doubt I
will misquote below, but I do not have a copy of “Sherlock Holmes”
handy..... Holmes : The most revealing clue is the peculiar thing which
the dog did in the night. Watson : But Holmes, the dog did nothing!
Holmes : Yes Mr. Watson, and that is what I find so very interesting....
I am not Holmes, but anybody can smell a skunk when it moves into the
neighborhood.

I concede that there is a overwhelming majority of stupid and incompetent
people holding high office in governments and oversight agencies around
the world, particularly since so many of them are lawyers, managers, and
professional politicians. (If they were not, then they would be bankers -
see below.) I concede the possibility that they might all simultaneously
be too busy to listen when one of the people who actually do work to fill
a position needs to mention a serious problem. What I do NOT concede is
the possibility that bankers and wealthy people around the world could
all miss the implications of the first domino falling in the chain which
caused the Monday crash. They knew by the middle of the preceding week
the precise nature of the problem and what corrective actions would be
needed to restore stability. I conclude this because generally speaking
accumulated wealth flows from stupid people to competent people (roaches
like me excepted of course). These fiscal policy irregularities and
market “corrections” occur fairly often, generally with swift and sure
reaction so that wealth does NOT flow from haves to have-nots. The money
pumps extract wealth from the ignorant to the networked and informed
power elite like fine clockwork. So why did they all pick the same time
to say “it’s not my problem” ?

Some people would suspect a conspiracy and search for a paper trail to
determine the culprits. I suggest that they recall the difference between
“necessary” and “sufficient”. Although a conspiracy would be sufficient,
it is not necessary once you apply a bit of practical anthropology and
animal psychology. I suggest that in the subspecies known as “banker”
there is a pecking order as well defined as in a tribe of baboons. It is
not necessary for lower life forms such as I to know the identity of the
alpha male. It is sufficient to know that an alpha male will exist. It is
sufficient to know that lesser members of the tribe are pummeled unless
they follow the lead of the alpha male. It is sufficient to know that all
initiative is delegated to the alpha male. So if the alpha male just sits
there scratching himself and ignoring a threat, the tribe runs for cover
and ignores the threat. When the alpha male barks, the tribe rallies
round and defends the territory. There are of course many tribes of
banker in the world, but the alpha males from tribes form another tribal
level etc. until you get to a very small super tribe composed of the most
dominant members in the world. It can be presumed that the alpha male of
that tribe did a bit of barking Friday since a bailout for Indonesia was
announced.

This raises the question of whether the super tribe is done defending its
territory. I suggest now that it is not, because the second thing which I
found annoying in the news was the hokum about weapons inspectors in
Iraq. Are we to have another “Desert Storm” simply to fulfill the
shortsighted and misconceived objective of supporting a few government
debt instruments ? Once again some may suggest conspiracy, but I have an
alternative explanation. Based upon past history, you only need to go a
day or two without being “polite” to offend people in the middle east.
They do not need any prompting to offend the rest of the world, at which
time you can choose to notice the offense rather than ignoring it. Send
them a hundred personal computers and the following strategy games to
keep them out of mischief : Sid Meier’s Civilization II, Sid Meier’s
Colonization II, Ascendancy, Master of Magic, Master of Orion II,
Imperium Galactica, and for tactics Battle Isle and Empire Deluxe. By the
time they finish playing those there will no doubt be plenty of 3d
strategy games available to pick up the load.

The Senate panel on campaign funding irregularities shut down. Let the
public decide whether the show was worth a couple million bucks.

Can the Reform Party muster enough energy and intellect to attract
attention ? Watch them this weekend on CSPAN and judge for yourself.

It's 8AM CST - time to go to bed.

No guarantee, no warranty, no liability, don’t hassle me.

Sincerely, Lonnie C. Clay TC5...@aol.com

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