How To Predict Market
Davidle01
I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
advertisement
from J.Welles Wilder,Jr. In the ad, he talked about DELTA and said that with
the
DELTA tool, we can predict turning points ( Up/Down) of market very accurately.
He offered the book called DELTA Phenomenon with the price $175 ( no refund ).
Could anyone tell me :
1) Who is Well Wilder,Jr. and Did anyone read his book " DELTA Phenomenon "
?
2) What is DELTA and How to calculate it ?
3) Can DELTA predict market accurately 90%, 80%, 60% ... ?
Thanks
DV
SCOTTTRADE
most recent year, then look at the same commodity for as many years as you can
get history for. Then ask your self whether your common sense judgment can
predict where the market is heading.
Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good traders
react to what the market is DOING.
The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict where
the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs your
ability to make money.
The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you lose
from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That is the
least important aspect to trading.
Scott Cole, CTA
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:20000119134046...@ng-cj1.aol.com...
> I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
> advertisement from J.Welles Wilder,Jr.
You and I are alike in that respect. Delta was the first thing that I
bought about commodities, and it's what got me started.
> 1) Who is Well Wilder,Jr.
Technical trader gone crazy, IMO. He wrote a great book, "New Concepts in
Technical Trading Systems," which has a lot of good info in it even for
today's trader. He then started to slide downhill into Wiggy Trader Land,
with "The Adam Theory of Markets" and "Delta". Both of those books outline
something that looks very compelling but can't be traded for chicken manure.
> and Did anyone read his book " DELTA Phenomenon "
Yes. I was so amayzed that I signed up for a membership, kept it for two
years and spent three years trying to figure out why it never "worked"
right. I finally woke up.
> 2) What is DELTA and How to calculate it ?
It's a concept of cycles applied on market charts. He supplies you with
four Sooper Seekrit time periods from short term to very long term that all
markets are supposed to follow. If you spend the bucks to join the
membership, he will provide you with the "solutions", the actual turning
dates for each market. Each date marks an opposing turning point, so if the
first date is a high, then the second will be a low, etc.
There are a few problems with it. First, is accuracy. Like Monty
Golfball's "Fdate" silliness on this newsgroup, you can mark just about any
kind of a turning point on a historical chart if you allow yourself enough
room for error. In Delta's case, it's outright absurd. In the cycle that
lasts for roughly a year, he's got bands for error that sometimes go WEEKS
on either side of the selected date. Is there likely to be a trend
correction at ANY date plus or minus a month, most of the time? You'd
better believe it! But... how do you trade some kind of indicator where
you're not sure if the little low we made yesterday is the "real" low, or if
it's just a little stopping point on the way to the actual low that occurs
five weeks later? Care to trade a multi-year cycle where the +/- amount is
nine to twelve MONTHS? Ridiculous. It's meaningless.
Second, the periods don't match up. Let's say I have a cycle that repeats
every 30 days. I have another cycle that repeats every 300 days. This
might work, right? As the markets move through their regular patterns, the
little cycle touches the big cycle at predictable intervals. But what if I
have one cycle that repeats every 200 days and one that repeats every
29.17171717 days. Every time we go through the large cycle, the little
cycle is putting in its turns at a different place from the last time
through. Is one always right, or are they both wrong, or do they take turns
being wrong?
Third, Delta comes prepackaged with a convenient feature called the
"Inversion Time Window". This is a period of time spanning three turning
points (the last one, the new first one, and the new second one in the
rotation). During this time, the market is allowed to make zero, one or two
stutter steps and invert the sequence of highs and lows. Remember that we
always alternate highs and lows? If we're in the inversion window and we
make an extra high or low, we're allowed to shift, e.g. (high low high...
(high)... low high low etc). This is great for the product vendor, who with
a little tweak can make the historical charts all line up. But for the
trader it's just one more impossibility. If the market gets choppy in an
inversion window (a frequent occurrence), how are you supposed to know if an
inversion has taken place? Wilder's answer was to keep guessing and waiting
until something conclusive occurred, which in some cases could take most of
the subsequent cycle rotation to figure out.
Along with most entry-picking methods on the market, it has very little to
do with the success of your trades. Personally, I think there are much
simpler and cheaper ways to go about getting in, and getting OUT is what
really counts anyway.
But if you're looking for something that will pick good trades for you, pass
on it. It's utterly useless for that.
Sticks
--
Troutman, Defender of Sticks http://www.defendercapital.com/
Jonathan Matte, President trou...@defendercapital.com
Defender Capital Management, Inc. (IB, CTA)
There is a significant risk of loss in futures trading.
Remill
you're a trend follower and the market has been going up for 6 months, by you
entering a long position, you are in effect, predicting the market will continue
to go up.That's where it's heading, right? But how far, and where should stops be
put and profits taken?
When I look at charts for as many years as I can get history for, I see many
points where I'd be able to predict where the market is heading. Doing it in
real-time, day by day as it's unfolding is the real trick which takes real
discipline. If you think
soybeans will go up 5 cents and will risk 1 cent, yes, that's a risk worth taking.
But if you just jump in, hope to ride the trend until some unspecified time and
price and hope to hang in there with winners and bail out of losers early, I don't
see where the odds are in your favor there.
With any trading method, you have to admit you're wrong, if you are, take a loss
and be able to trade again another day. But, then again,
I can't claim to be a GOOD trader!
Remill
SCOTTTRADE wrote:
> As I have said here in the past, look at a daily chart of a commodity for the
> most recent year, then look at the same commodity for as many years as you can
> get history for. Then ask your self whether your common sense judgment can
> predict where the market is heading.
>
> Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good traders
> react to what the market is DOING.
>
> The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
> whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict where
> the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs your
> ability to make money.
>
> The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you lose
> from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That is the
> least important aspect to trading.
>
> Scott Cole, CTA
>
> >
> > I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
> >advertisement
> >from J.Welles Wilder,Jr. In the ad, he talked about DELTA and said that with
> >the
> >DELTA tool, we can predict turning points ( Up/Down) of market very
> >accurately.
> >He offered the book called DELTA Phenomenon with the price $175 ( no refund
> >).
> >Could anyone tell me :
> >
> > 1) Who is Well Wilder,Jr. and Did anyone read his book " DELTA Phenomenon
> >"
> >?
> >
> > 2) What is DELTA and How to calculate it ?
> >
Juan Valdez
>
>
> I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
>advertisement
>from J.Welles Wilder,Jr. In the ad, he talked about DELTA and said that with
>the
>DELTA tool, we can predict turning points ( Up/Down) of market very accurately.
>He offered the book called DELTA Phenomenon with the price $175 ( no refund ).
>Could anyone tell me :
Dave,
Try this for starters
http://www.defendercapital.com/Futures/Systems/sysrv_Delta.html
Good Trading,
SCOTTTRADE
>you're a trend follower and the market has been going up for 6 months, by you
>entering a long position, you are in effect, predicting the market will
>continue
>to go up.That's where it's heading, right? But how far, and where should
>stops be
>put and profits taken?
>
No, not predicting it will go up, anticipating it will go up some more, but I
dont try to anticipate for how long it will go up, or how far. Let the market
tell you where to exit, based upon whatever rules you may wish to apply. One
popular trading system buys and sells 4 week breakouts and exits when the
market makes 2 week highs or lows. For example, you buy a 20 day high with a
stop loss in place, if the market moves in your favor, you get out when it
makes a 10 day low.
I have a number of exit strategies depending upon the entry strategy and market
action. Most of the time I am buying strength and selling weakness.
Scott Cole, CTA
SCOTTTRADE
market. As for analyzing fundamentals, I leave that to those smarter than me!
Any time I have made trading decisions based on fundamentals, I got burned.
Too dumb! lol
But, it sounds to me that you focus your attention on a specific market. That
is a good idea if you are using fundamental analysis as the root of your
strategy. Too hard to follow very many markets that way.
Scott
>In commodities (Cap'n the engines canna take much more) Scotty I would agree
>but in short term interets rates , especially near the current month it
>is the decision of central banks setting the cash rate that sets the pace..
>Can you read the economy and anticipate how the data you see around you
>every day is being picked up, processed and fed to the central bank faster
>than they can do it? I think often the answer is yes.
>
>Meanwhile screenjocks with pimples are getting carried away because they
>can. So I think it is possible to set realistically achievabel projections
>etc and anticipate the market ALWAYS at some point becoming over
>bought/sold. For fun I just muck around with a few ciontracts but the major
>position are set on the two std devn type excursions to MY prediction of the
>future central bank rate (plus a little for holding contract). I say 2 std.
>devn but more realistically called " a long way from where my guts tell me
>it should be" after I've looked at everything (LOL entrails of dead cats and
>chickens included).
>
>Just my one cents worth...but building up to two cents worth
>
>P
>
>
>> Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
>traders
>> react to what the market is DOING.
>>
>> The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
>> whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict
>where
>> the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs
>your
>> ability to make money.
>>
>> The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you
>lose
>> from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That is
>the
>> least important aspect to trading.
>>
>> Scott Cole, CTA
>>
>> >
>> > I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
>> >advertisement
>> >from J.Welles Wilder,Jr. In the ad, he talked about DELTA and said that
>with
>> >the
>> >DELTA tool, we can predict turning points ( Up/Down) of market very
>> >accurately.
>> >He offered the book called DELTA Phenomenon with the price $175 ( no
>refund
>> >).
>> >Could anyone tell me :
>> >
leif_e...@my-deja.com
turning points better than chance, they wouldn't need to go hustling
books, courses, systems or services.
Futures trading (incl financial futures) draws a Lot of speculative
capital, much of it traded by people running portfolios in 7 and 8 and 9
figures (pure spec, not offsets).
1)This guy with a secret for mkt timing would be taking just $175 from
people he dosen't even know out of kindness and christian charity.
2) This guy is selling treasure maps to tourists.
What seems more likely?
Leif
In article <20000119134046...@ng-cj1.aol.com>,
davi...@aol.com (Davidle01) wrote:
>
>
> I am a newcomer to future trading. Two days ago, I received the
> advertisement
> from J.Welles Wilder,Jr. In the ad, he talked about DELTA and said
that with
> the
> DELTA tool, we can predict turning points ( Up/Down) of market very
accurately.
> He offered the book called DELTA Phenomenon with the price $175 ( no
refund ).
> Could anyone tell me :
>
> 1) Who is Well Wilder,Jr. and Did anyone read his book " DELTA
Phenomenon "
> ?
>
> 2) What is DELTA and How to calculate it ?
>
> 3) Can DELTA predict market accurately 90%, 80%, 60% ... ?
>
> Thanks
>
> DV
>
>
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
Carl Cook
>Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
traders
>react to what the market is DOING.
>
>The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
>whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict
where
>the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs your
>ability to make money.
I tend to agree with the other reply you got, that the act of taking a
position is making a prediction. You are taking an action on the
anticipation that the market will move in your favor. That "anticipation"
can be seen as a prediction. Exiting a position can be either proactive (I
think the market is going to stop moving in my favor) or reactive (money
management, stops, limits, financial pain or pleasure, etc.)
The markets, particularly the S&P 500 futures, are predictable enough to
make decent money, that is, to tip the odds in your favor. I'm defining
"making money" as beating buy-n-hold by a substantial amount or very
attractive return on account. This is routinely done and can be
statistically proven. Any solution that suggests that they will be 100%
*correct* on future trades is very likely to be "snake-oil", but 60-70% is
very doable (with winner $ greater than loser $, just for clarity). A great
example is the *predictive* models we post on our web site at:
http://www.biocompsystems.com/pages/trading2.htm
The first model has been trading one S&P500 future contract for almost one
full year out of sample (publicly posted paper trading updated real-time)
and has earned a $112,800 profit. If you assume an account size of about
$60,000, that's about 188% gain since February 22, 1999, when we started
posting it. Statistically, these results are over 99.99%+ likely to not be
random chance.
I concur that one should not fall into the trap of thinking (and buying) a
system, method or tool that claims that it can predict the markets 100% into
the future.
I personally believe that people feel the markets are not predictable is
because they have tried and failed. I personally believe that price action
in the markets is based principally upon human behavior, complex,
interacting and dynamic. Human behavior is often HARD to predict. We say
one thing, do another. We focus on one thing (Asian markets) then another
(Ruble/Brazilian currencies) and then another (interest rates).
>The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you
lose
>from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That is
the
>least important aspect to trading.
If you strive to be correct always (shoot for the stars) but achieve a
reasonable result (land on the moon), you have done well.
Carl Cook
BioComp Systems, Inc.
http://www.biocompsystems.com
Time Price Trader
years. Scott and a few others have ridiculed the notion of forecasting
(predicting), when every time they make a play in the market (except for
Scott who until recently just made his first two trades in as many years)
they are indeed 'predicting'.
ANTICIPATION, EXPECTATION, and acting on them by way of placing an order is
PREDICTING. If you think the market will do this or that, and so you buy or
sell in hopes of making money on your expectation, you are indeed PREDICTING
that it will do such and such.
Mince words all day long, and it comes out the same. So why knock it? Try
to get better at doing it.
Its been fun.
--
Cheers!
Rick J. Ratchford
===========================
Precision Trading Membership
http://FSoftPublishing.com
===========================
Carl Cook <nom...@nomail.com> wrote in message
news:65Ih4.380$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
Arbitrage
With all due respect Carl, paper and simulated traders don't live in the
real world and hence don't have much credibility in this newsgroup.
Carl Cook <nom...@nomail.com> wrote in article
<65Ih4.380$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net>...
Carl Cook
Hi Arbitrage,
>With all due respect Carl, paper and simulated traders don't live in the
>real world and hence don't have much credibility in this newsgroup.
Actually, I have much *more* at stake than the single contract being
"paper-traded" on the web site.
The chart at the bottom of:
http://www.biocompsystems.com/pages/trading2.htm
are actual trades. Not paper, not simulated, but money in the bank.
I agree, the psychology of actual trading adds a complete different
emotional element. We all have those special feelings in our stomachs as we
take positions with real money at risk. Also, in paper trading, slippage
and commission are estimated and not real.
Acknowledged and agreed.
Unknown Trader
wrong. Do what the market does. Simple, and you don't need all the
hocus pocus astro-gannology-elfibo-shitdates stuff.
Why is it that the only ones touting all this crap are the ones that
are SELLING it. Ratchford's already proved that he can't trade the
bullshit he sells, but the fools are still clinging to the Forecasting
Fantasy, hoping it will make them rich.
Get real, trade what you see, not what you think.
Carl Cook
>The chart at the bottom of:
>
>http://www.biocompsystems.com/pages/trading2.htm
>
>are actual trades. Not paper, not simulated, but money in the bank.
These are actual results that one of our customers put into the bank. They
are not based on the systems we post on our site, but upon systems they have
created using our technology.
Thanks,
SCOTTTRADE
Ok, so if I make a trade to go long because the market went above a moving
average, that is a forecast? You guys are really splitting hairs now. Has
nothing to do with forecasting turning points based on cycles, dates, astrology
etc, which is what Rick and Delta lover say they do.
I like to think I am reacting to what the market is doing. If it is in an
uptrend, I look for a place to enter in the direction of that trend, since the
probabilities favor such a trade.
In my view, that is only an odds play that the existing trend will continue.
Am I forecasting WHEN or HOW FAR prices will go? Of course not. But that is
what 99% of the vendors say they can do. So, they vend, rather than trade.
Scott Cole, CTA
Steel
Please give us an example of doing what the market is
doing:(ie) I follow cotton and several others, but can you
look at the ctk00 contract and tell me exactly how you
would have traded this contract say back ten days ago?
Please base your opinion honestly. I am not trying to
flame, but instead am trying to understand!
Thanks,
S
In article <388c90cb....@news.alt.net>, U...@aol.com
* Sent from RemarQ http://www.remarq.com The Internet's Discussion Network *
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Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:65Ih4.380$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
> I tend to agree with the other reply you got, that the act of taking a
> position is making a prediction.
I think that in one sense you are unavoidably correct. One can't for
practical purposes take a position in the market and yet claim that they
have no interest in the outcome of that trade. But I think that there are
some subtleties in the subject that bear discussion.
First, it seems that taking a trade as a prediction is a simplistic
representation of very diverse behavior. The order placed in the market to
go long the Bond market is itself a prediction, yet the trader may not in a
holistic sense be predicting, as such:
Trader A, why did you go long the Bond market? "Because my Golf Ball
Self-Determinism Metacalculatrix has determined that at precisely this time,
the rally will begin."
Trader B, why did *you* go long the Bond market? "Well, I flipped this here
coin and the rules taped to my desk say, 'Heads, go long -- tails, go
short.' I got heads, so I done went long."
Trader A is engaging in the practice of divination, attempting to determine
through some form of complex analysis where the market will go next. Trader
B is executing a skew mechanical process that results in a trade being
taken, but there was nothing about his behavior that attempted to predict or
divine the market's future behavior before actually taking the trade.
In other words, both TRADES are predictions, but only one TRADER is actually
engaging in the behavior of predicting.
Now, this neatly dovetails into my second point. Let's say that at the
precise moment Trader A enters the market, having spent days constructing
the elaborate prediction that led to his long trade, Trader B flips his coin
and dumps an identical long position into the same market.
Which trader do we respect more and want to put on CNBC so we can hear his
wisdom? Trader A. Which trader do we often believe has a better chance of
success? Trader A. Which trader has obviously "done his homework"? Trader
A.
But in reality, which trader is better off? There's no way to tell yet!
The answer lies in the exit, not the entry. The only way to determine the
better trader is to look at what they do with the position once they own it.
All the market analysis in the world, unless it gives the trader ABSOLUTE,
CERTAIN knowledge about the upcoming market behavior, is totally irrelevant
once the trade is taken. The future that follows every trade is utterly
unknowable but absolutely common, shared among all traders. Trader A does
not get a different Bond market from Trader B just because his analysis was
complicated or sophisticated or even talked about on television. Once in
the trade, the only thing that determines the outcome of the trade is the
exit strategy, and that is true no matter how clever we think we are when we
get in.
This is why I continue to advocate that people concentrate on what to do
once they're in a trade, not on predicting what they think will happen in
the future. The trade is a prediction, but it need not be born of an
intensive predictive effort on the part of the trader (or the tools at his
disposal). The degree of accuracy in prediction does not in of itself
determine success. The act of predicting does not in any way predispose a
profit.
I will further contend that by spending a lot of time in pre-trade
prediction, one can actually endanger success. If you are absolutely dead
sure that the Bond market will go up because your spheroid divination
algorithm says so, you *may* be less prepared for the market to tank halfway
to hell. If the market "has to go up", are you more likely to hold onto
that losing trade, or double it up after you're in drawdown for a while?
Some people will say yes, either by word or deed. In a long-term
perspective (and in some cases short-term), these decisions can kill your
trading account.
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:u7qI3C5Y$GA.221@cpmsnbbsa04...
> What Carl noted here is exactly what I've posted here many times over the
> years.
Carl is posting Fdates ads? Where? Where?
Time Price Trader
what the market is doing.'
Okay. Tell us what the market is doing.
"uh, I think it is moving up now."
Then, tell us how you will react.
"uh, I think I will go long now."
Tell us why you would react that way?
"uh, cause I think it will keep moving up now." (predicting)
And reality sinks in when the obvious is learned. Tops are formed by prices
moving up. So you go long. Want to go long when it makes a top? Yeah,
right.
:)
Rick
SCOTTTRADE <scott...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20000120181433...@ng-cj1.aol.com...
Newsgroup Buddies
Time Price Trader wrote in message ...
>The silliest thing ever spoken, and not spoken alone. 'I like to react to
>what the market is doing.'
Yes. It is very silly to react to what the market is doing. I never do.
>Tops are formed by prices moving up.
My 26 years of analysis has also lead me to conclude that tops are formed
when prices move up. Thanks for pointing that out.
***Posted by Newsgroup Buddies (tm)
We post favorable opinions about you when others will not.
$100 per month - www.NewsgroupBuddies.com
Remill
extension of your position. Say Trader B,
who entered because of a coin flip, also exited because of a coin flip on the
day of the high of the move.
Trader A, however, waited until the market came down and hit his stop, making
far less on the trade. Does
that mean that Trader B is who we should emulate? Many people believe any
technical analysis is no better and far
worse than flipping a coin.
Of course the future is unknowable, but if technical analysis is viable at all,
it must be able to give us information
that will enable us to make more trading than we could without it.
Why is it that "trend traders" who say they trade with the odds in their favor,
lose more often than win? The only
thing that can save them is if their bank account can withstand many losses
hoping for that BIG win.
It seems like you're saying you should enter the market mindlessly and then try
to figure out how to exit. If you
don't have an idea where the market is going, why would you put your money on a
trade?
Remill
Steel
Good call, but would it not be safe to say that if you
were following this market as i do, and after seeing just
as you described, that you would at least be anticipating
some sort of short term trend reversal, given the fact that
this market cth00 has been in a downtrend (longterm) for
the entire time and when the market sold off before of some
ten cents or more, there was a retracement of some 50% or
more.
This being said, i have to say that unless you can at
least anticipate based on what you have seen in the past,
you would have no way of reacting to what happens in real
time.
This being said, i do believe that there may be a way of
determining future TARKET prices, but am not saying that
you can predict the exact time or price!!!
I agree that you must react to what the market is telling
you, but how could you pull the trigger if you did not have
at least some idea of profit potential. This market could
have easily moved up to 5200 and fell back to who knows?
The market had just made a contract low, some upward
movement would be predictable based on past performance,
but the exact price, and how long that would take would be
hard to predict.
I sense that there is alot more than what meets the eye,
and the people who have tried to put it all together have
most likely just scratched the surface of what is really
needed to be able to accurately predict future prices!!!
Good Trading,
S
Remill
all. The only problem I have is
that he believes moves can't be measured and thus disparages that
technique. Here's an alternate way to
trade CTK0:
Cotton made a low on 12/28 of 50.30. It moved up to 52 where it
consolidated for two days. Upon the breakout
day of 1/5 the target projected would be just under 54 with a stop below
the low of the day before at 51.70. That's
a move from say 52.50 to 54 or 1.5 points versus a loss of .8 points. Not
the greatest risk to take, but it gives you
an idea of what your profit might be compared to your loss. As the market
moved up, it again consolidated at 55.
That gives another target of just under 60. Again, this is just simple
chart projection w/o using other indicators. I've
found you must have other confirming and non-confirming indicators to make
this work in real trading. You also
must have a trailing stop to protect profits and your capital in case of a
loss.
Now, which would you rather do, jump in when you believe a trend changed
and hang on until in changed in the
opposite direction or have targets for profits and losses and trade, at
least partially based on that?
BTW, I'm not a system seller. Nor am I a CTA. I make money(sometimes!) by
trading, not advising others or selling
them a system although both have a valuable place in the futures market.
Remill
Unknown Trader wrote:
> On Thu, 20 Jan 2000 15:16:17 -0800, Steel
> <s-n-bN...@msn.com.invalid> wrote:
>
> >Unknown,
> >
> > Please give us an example of doing what the market is
> >doing:(ie) I follow cotton and several others, but can you
> >look at the ctk00 contract and tell me exactly how you
> >would have traded this contract say back ten days ago?
> >
> > Please base your opinion honestly. I am not trying to
> >flame, but instead am trying to understand!
> >
> > Thanks,
>
> I'll use a Mar 00 CT chart and some very basic analysis to
> demonstrate my point. Let's first draw a trendline (down)
> from the high on 10/14/99. OK..now how about a 14 period
> stoch and some moving averages...say 18, 9 and 4.
> If you've made a chart similar to what I've described the first thing
> you should notice is a massive divergence between the falling prices
> and the stoch, or probably just about any other momentum indicator
> you may care to view from appx 11/05/99 to 12/27/99.
> There is also a bullish divergence on the weekly chart.
>
> This is a warning that something may be ready to happen...no
> forecasting involved, just reacting to what we see.
>
> As for how I would have traded this, on 12/22 the downtrend
> line on my stoch indicator is broke to the upside, 12/30 price
> confirms by closing above the trendline drawn from the 10/14 high.
> Also my moving averages have turned up and the price has closed above
> them. I am now looking at a market that has by my definition changed
> direction. It's going up. How far?? Who knows, who cares. Buy it.
> My entry would be to buy the high of 12/30.
>
> This may be an oversimplification but I hope it demonstrates my
> point. This stuff is only as hard as you make it, although the vendors
>
> would have you think otherwise. There are hundreds of different ways
> to look at the markets..find yourself a few good tools that make sense
> to you and apply them in a consistent manner. Most importantly learn
> what your risk is and how to controll it.
> This hypothetical trade is a very good example. Even though we have
> seen in hindsight that it worked out to be a very good trade, in
> reality it is one that I would have passed on. The only protective
> stop on the initial entry that made any sense would have been in the
> $1200-$1500 area, way too much for this type of a trade according to
> my risk management, for others this may be acceptable.
winch p
but in short term interets rates , especially near the current month it
is the decision of central banks setting the cash rate that sets the pace..
Can you read the economy and anticipate how the data you see around you
every day is being picked up, processed and fed to the central bank faster
than they can do it? I think often the answer is yes.
Meanwhile screenjocks with pimples are getting carried away because they
can. So I think it is possible to set realistically achievabel projections
etc and anticipate the market ALWAYS at some point becoming over
bought/sold. For fun I just muck around with a few ciontracts but the major
position are set on the two std devn type excursions to MY prediction of the
future central bank rate (plus a little for holding contract). I say 2 std.
devn but more realistically called " a long way from where my guts tell me
it should be" after I've looked at everything (LOL entrails of dead cats and
chickens included).
Just my one cents worth...but building up to two cents worth
P
> Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
traders
> react to what the market is DOING.
>
> The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
> whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict
where
> the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs
your
> ability to make money.
>
> The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you
lose
> from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That is
the
> least important aspect to trading.
>
> Scott Cole, CTA
Unknown Trader
Carl Cook
>First, it seems that taking a trade as a prediction is a simplistic
>representation of very diverse behavior. The order placed in the market to
>go long the Bond market is itself a prediction, yet the trader may not in a
>holistic sense be predicting:
Yes, I agree. I label this as active vs. passive prediction. To take,
maintain and exit positions are acts that I consider making predictions,
either actively or passively.
I do take some exception to the terms "precisely", "ABSOLUTE, CERTAIN
knowledge", "absolutely dead sure" and "divination" when it comes to
predicting. I understand you are using these terms to make your point, but
it maintains a perception that predicting is somehow and must be precise.
There are people that claim they can do this. I think they are snake-oil
salesmen. What we suggest is shifting the odds into your favor. The system
on our website is actually predicting the likelihood of trend changes. Not
price, not tops, not bottoms. The precision is not perfect, but it bias'
the odds in your favor.
Consider our two traders. Trader A and B enter at the same time for
whatever reason. Both are using reactive money management techniques, but
Trader A augments his exit strategy with a tool that provides him
information about the likelihood whether the trend will continue. Trader A
exits based on the first cause, a predictive signal or money management.
Over time, if Trader A shows statistically valid results that his trading
record is superior, who do you listen to?
The extent upon which you use money management is inversely proportional to
the profitablity of the predictive techology.
The effort and energy to build the predictive technology system is worth it
if it can be shown, over time, in real trading or valid out-of-sample
testing, that it gives you an advantage. Out-of-sample testing is the only
way to validate without using real money. But the true proof is real
trading (money in the bank).
There is a common desire by the masses to "Point-Click-Get Rich". Actively
predicting profitably does take work, research and an understanding of the
markets, like trading itself. You need to know what you are doing.
>The only way to determine the better trader is to look at what they do with
the position once they own it.
I do subscribe to the theory that exit strategies are more important than
entry, since you have money at risk when considering your exits, as compared
to lost opportunity when looking at entries.
>The future that follows every trade is utterly
>unknowable but absolutely common, shared among all traders
Yes, the future is unknown, in trading or real life. What is likely to
happen can be estimated and used to our advantage.
>The degree of accuracy in prediction does not in of itself
>determine success. The act of predicting does not in any way predispose a
>profit.
Yes, predicting does not make you profitable. Predicting reasonably
accurately is not necessarily profitable either. We've learned this lesson.
We construct our models based on equity performance, not accuracy. Even if
you predict profitably, you still have to act.
Unknown Trader
wannabe that couldn't even turn a profit trading a play money account.
Always ask yourself, is this person selling something?
Hmmm...what could be his motivation in posting this information?
If it works as good as he says, why is it for sale?
Think about it folks, if you had The Goose that laid The Golden Egg,
would you tell anyone???
winch p
I know a little about finace economics, but I use TA a little too, and my
eyes and ears. Eg I made 5 times my initial investment because it was
pointed out by a sales asistance that retail sales were terrible which is
why the sales were early this year. Now I'd never notice this myself and
the jouno's don't and the screen jocks dont and the central bankers don't -
not for a few weeks at least. So a bit of F, Ta and also mass psychology
(which is also useful when RR - "Please doctor could you remove this small
piece of brain lodged in my skull" posts in the ng).
At the moment I'm looking for new indicators because the trend of the last
five years has finished and its like being weightless at the top of the
roller coaster (in the dark no less). I'm busting to really go into long
positions but caution warns me that this time the central banks are not
going to make any attempt to save the stock market. In fact I think the
banks have decided to squeeze the sharemarket slowly becuase all the growth
in cionsumption generated by feelings of wealth from the share market,.
Inflation is a dead issue. M3, balance of ppayments and trade deficits are
the order of the day. I don'y know what all that means becuase any
indicator of market sentiment is reflecting the wrong things (i.e yesterday)
When the market final wakes up startled I don't want to be to big on the
wrong sidfe (Early lesson in life - when waitinfg foe train wait on station
not on tracks). So I visit this ng looking for insight.
Just my view of course.
P
"SCOTTTRADE" <scott...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20000120095352...@ng-cn1.aol.com...
> Let me clarify Winch, using technical analysis, don't try to predict the
> market. As for analyzing fundamentals, I leave that to those smarter than
me!
> Any time I have made trading decisions based on fundamentals, I got
burned.
> Too dumb! lol
>
> But, it sounds to me that you focus your attention on a specific market.
That
> is a good idea if you are using fundamental analysis as the root of your
> strategy. Too hard to follow very many markets that way.
>
> Scott
>
winch p
trial period would be a friendly and worthy jesture.
In anticipation of a favourable reply from a scholar and a thorough
gentleman,
I remain,
Yours humbly
P
Ok, Ok, thats enough!!! I can't keep it up!
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote in message
news:65Ih4.380$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
> Hi Scott,
>
> >Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
> traders
> >react to what the market is DOING.
>
> >
> >The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do this
> >whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to predict
> where
> >the market is heading. Developing a judgmental bias like that impairs
your
> >ability to make money.
>
>
> I tend to agree with the other reply you got, that the act of taking a
> >The bottom line is making sure you make more from your winners than you
> lose
> >from your losers. Dont focus on trying to be right all the time. That
is
> the
> >least important aspect to trading.
>
> If you strive to be correct always (shoot for the stars) but achieve a
> reasonable result (land on the moon), you have done well.
>
winch p
Theres a difference in my view if you are only involved in one market.
There is no doubt in my mind that a mass psychology is at work sometimes.
Think of Monday am when screen jock turns up for work. Does he want to
finish the day on the edge of the herd? No he would prefer to be slight
better than average but comfortable in the middle. "Pioneers get arrows"
remember. Better to say " I lost some but look at how bad it could of
been".
This happens all the time. Corporate cultures and Hierarchy and "group
think" pervades the major trading instituitins and thank goodness it does or
we speculators would never make money.
OTOH minlessly picked Fdates crap and cycles and imaginary supprt etc in my
view just WILL NOT do it because the past is just that - yesterdays men.
The markets are changing all the time. Maybe once Fdates actually worked.
But why should anything continue to work. Anything that works immediately
is accounted for in the market so u have to keep changing. Gary Smiths book
says that. Jack H says he has to watch the pace of the market. All
different ways of saying the same thing, done differently but to address the
same thing.
P
winch p
there is an element to your trading that sounds (only from what I've read)
as a sort of ticker tape reading.
Are we re-entering that old age because of the speed of our communications
and computers etc puts us back into a pit electronically ...except on a HUGE
global scale?
????
P
"Steel" <s-n-bN...@msn.com.invalid> wrote in message
news:1761dd4a...@usw-ex0107-056.remarq.com...
winch p
I've posted this before, about my time series PHD nice who after 3 yearsv
intensive study on Box-Jenkins et al said the best nmethod for trading was
to do what they did yesterday !!!!
Kidding of course but if each trade was 50/50 and I cut out every time i
went in after a 5 or 10 point loss, apart from brokerage would I be ahead?
Possibly, what if I tried to skew the odds a little in my favour - say I
only went into the market when the market was at a point of indecision i.e
clearly not trending - would any of this matter. I think so.
I am beginning to feel we are all in agreement with cut losses, skew the
odds etc gneralisations. The conflagrations come in the selection of
entrails that are used. I think. Correct me if I am wrong (Now there's six
words I need never have said)
Thanks all. Good to hear so many points of view.
P
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote in message
news:8QOh4.1196$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
> Hi Troutman,
>
> >First, it seems that taking a trade as a prediction is a simplistic
> >representation of very diverse behavior. The order placed in the market
to
> >go long the Bond market is itself a prediction, yet the trader may not in
a
> >holistic sense be predicting:
>
>
> Yes, I agree. I label this as active vs. passive prediction. To take,
> maintain and exit positions are acts that I consider making predictions,
> either actively or passively.
>
> I do take some exception to the terms "precisely", "ABSOLUTE, CERTAIN
> knowledge", "absolutely dead sure" and "divination" when it comes to
> predicting. I understand you are using these terms to make your point,
but
> it maintains a perception that predicting is somehow and must be precise.
> There are people that claim they can do this. I think they are snake-oil
> salesmen. What we suggest is shifting the odds into your favor. The
system
> on our website is actually predicting the likelihood of trend changes.
Not
> price, not tops, not bottoms. The precision is not perfect, but it bias'
> the odds in your favor.
>
winch p
then try
> to figure out how to exit. If you
> don't have an idea where the market is going, why would you put your money
on a
> trade?
>
> Remill
>
is only ever bet on a sure thing. It sounds so completely trite but does
anyone really ever do it? I relly try, and can't do it though, to be
completely dispasionate about my trade, think of a shark . Its nothing
personal he'ds just hungry and you are there, Thats how I try to be cool -
just doing what has to be done - predicting (or a better word hopeful
anticipation) a direction but being a complete prostitute I'll go anywhere
if the money's there.
So bet on a sure thing. What do you mean its not a sure thing - bang I'm
gone. Everytime I don't act like this I get hurt. The market just grinds
against me. Eventually I might be proven right but as I said earlier it's
no good waiting on the tracks.
P
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:3887E2F6...@concentric.net...
> Let's take your phantom traders to the next step so I can show the logical
> extension of your position. Say Trader B,
> who entered because of a coin flip, also exited because of a coin flip on
the
> day of the high of the move.
This is *your* position, not mine. My position is that exit determines
outcome, and that the amount of wiggling done prior to the trade is a lot
less important than we often make it out to be.
Random entry does NOT require random exit. It is not a logical extension of
Trader B's behavior at all to exit with a coin flip simply because that's
how he got in. Entry and exit are completely separate elements of the
trading process. In my example, I did not make a determination as to which
trader was better because I didn't look at exits. Had I shown either trader
using a coin flip to exit, I'd readily call them the weaker trader. But
either Trader A or B are candidates for using that exit method; B isn't of
necessity going to do it because he got in.
> Many people believe any
> technical analysis is no better and far
> worse than flipping a coin.
Yes, many do. I find that to be a superficial determination that doesn't
take the trader into account.
> Of course the future is unknowable, but if technical analysis is viable at
all,
> it must be able to give us information
> that will enable us to make more trading than we could without it.
I think of it as one of two things: as a filter so that the infinite
information in the marketplace can be distilled into a form that a trader's
brain can comprehend; and/or as an icon that provides confidence to the
trader (e.g. "when I see this, it means that, so I can execute a trade
now.").
Neither is useless in any sense, but neither is engaging in actually showing
us the future.
> Why is it that "trend traders" who say they trade with the odds in their
favor,
> lose more often than win?
Beats me. I trade without regard for, "the odds in my favor," since I think
it's a dangerously comfortable fallacy to believe that we know the odds of
success on any trade. Over time I lose about half the time, and though last
year's performance showed significantly more wins than losses, it was a mild
anomaly compared to historical data.
> The only
> thing that can save them is if their bank account can withstand many
losses
> hoping for that BIG win.
I used to think that, too. But as it turns out, my losses and wins are not
equal. Many of my losses are commission plus a tick or two. Some of them
are 1-2% of account equity. Every now and then, I'll take a 5-6% loss. But
generally, when gains occur they are larger than the losses. It works out
quite comfortably.
Every system has a failure scenario. Trend followers can fail when the
markets go for years without producing a trend. Option sellers can fail
when markets go unexpectedly crazy for years. Option buyers can fail if the
markets never go their way. Top and bottom pickers fail all the time
because there's no way to reliably identify them. Day traders can fall
victim to too much or too little volatility, or a series of weeks where the
market takes on a different personality.
In other words, *every* trading method is vulnerable to a scenario that, if
you look at it from that point of view, allows you to say, "The only thing
that can save them..."
> It seems like you're saying you should enter the market mindlessly and
then try
> to figure out how to exit.
Then I didn't communicate very effectively. What I'm saying is that no one
can determine the future ahead of time, and that trying to do so via Delta
or Monty Golfball's Flying Predictions is not an effective effort. I think
that when one enters the market, it is extremely important to consider what
it is doing *right now*, however one determines that time frame.
Furthermore, I have never advocated trying to figure out how to exit once
you're in a trade! That, in fact, is what most new and/or persistently
losing traders end up doing -- in part, I believe, precisely because they
are spending too much time predicting the market before they get in! If
you're sure the market is going to rally, then why worry about loss stops
and capital management? After all, you're not going to be wrong this time
so who cares?
The only traders who have survival potential are the ones who know ahead of
the trade exactly what they will do no matter what the market throws at
them, and they've also determined that the worst normal loss outcome for the
trade is no big deal. The alternative is to be surprised by the market and
have to come up with something on the spur of the moment, and that's no way
to trade year in and year out.
> If you
> don't have an idea where the market is going, why would you put your money
on a
> trade?
Because you might be right about direction and duration? Same as for the
folks who believe they have a Kozmic Channel Z access to the secret mind
beneath the market...
Steel
I think the differences shown in the (ng) are about type
of trading,(ie) intra-day, swing, short, or long term. I
would say that if you were trading on an intra-day level
that you would have to react more to market movement in
order to make any money, those who trade swings would also
be reacting to market movements. The long term trader
basics is to sit back and wait for a good opportunity to
make a large profit over several weeks or even months. In
the message prior we were discussing how to trade ctk00,
but was offered recom on cth00. I looked at the long term
beni of the market having fallen a great deal, that there
would be a retracement of some 50% based on this markets
past actions. I have traded intr-day, swing, short, and
long term. I have settled on long term trading, less
commission, profit better, and much less stress. So now
when i look at a market i look at it from a long term
perspective.
I did not understand your question, but to answer part of
your post, i do not only look at one market, i follow
several markets that have good volume and volatility. I can
not stand markets that don't ever seem to move!! These may
be the best markets for the intra-day user, less
possibility for huge losses but way to slow for me!
Good trading,
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:8QOh4.1196$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
> What we suggest is shifting the odds into your favor. The system
> on our website is actually predicting the likelihood of trend changes.
Not
> price, not tops, not bottoms. The precision is not perfect, but it bias'
> the odds in your favor.
And yet we are right back where we started. If a prediction does not
provide certain knowledge of the future, then it isn't any help once the
trade is in progress. Accuracy isn't strongly correlated to either profits
or long-term success of the trader. In fact, to introduce TWO heretical
opinions in a single week, I will advocate that in fact, highly accurate
trading systems often *jeopardize* the long-term success of the trader even
though things work great in the beginning. It is little comfort knowing
that we used to predict 80% accurately with a tool or method in the past,
when we hit a six month period where accuracy drops to 40%.
Without absolute accuracy, a properly paranoid trader will still be left
with both the fear of what will happen on *this* trade, and a fear that at
any moment we may hit a pocket of market behavior that will kill the method.
> but
> Trader A augments his exit strategy with a tool that provides him
> information about the likelihood whether the trend will continue. Trader
A
> exits based on the first cause, a predictive signal or money management.
> Over time, if Trader A shows statistically valid results that his trading
> record is superior, who do you listen to?
Anyone who has a good exit strategy is worth listening to, regardless of the
reason. With exits, the trader is saying, "Here is where I take profits /
cut the loss." That is a far more pragmatic and useful exercise (regardless
of HOW they are doing it) than spending a lot of time fussing over what time
to get in.
> >The future that follows every trade is utterly
> >unknowable but absolutely common, shared among all traders
>
> Yes, the future is unknown, in trading or real life. What is likely to
> happen can be estimated and used to our advantage.
In a limited sense, this is true. But many people make the incorrect
assumption that statistics indemnify against future abnormality; that is,
because something is likely, it will always be likely. Find me a neural net
builder for financial markets that didn't have to retrain their system
because of a significant change in market behavior. I dare ya! :-)
Arbitrage
SCOTTTRADE <scott...@aol.com> wrote in article
<20000119152853...@ng-cj1.aol.com>...
>
> Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
traders
> react to what the market is DOING.
Sounds good to me. I can't think of any topic that has generated more
debate over the years than market prediction. I always thought the simpler
the better in trading. Why complicate matters with ratios, squiggly lines
on a chart, waves, cycles, or other perceptual filters used by traders to
understand market behavior. I'm at the point now in my trading where if
needed, I could do all my trading based solely on periodic intraday prices
of the cash indexes of the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. I don't
predict, analyze, rationalize, or even think - I just react to various
momentum and divergence changes among these indexes and indicative that the
strength or weakness shown should persist over a matter of days, weeks, or
in the case of technology in late October, for months. Just the past
several trading days we have had major divergence in the Russell 2000
indicating this is the sector to be trading or investing - Russell 2000
futures, options, or small cap fundsand stocks. These type of diverences
and other momentum patterns I react to are something I "see". It's what
the market is doing in the present, not the past or the future. Just my
opinion and mode of trading.
Gary Smith
Time Price Trader
today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as a
reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to what
the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up, up.
So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
As an intraday play (because the trend is obviously up, up, up, up) was to
do a quick short based on those ratios, cycles, waves and other
overcomplicated (to some, not to me) tools of the trade. Sell at Market on
Open, filled at 58.39 March, watched it turn down from being up 78 to down
around 50, and exited market at 57.00 for 139 points per contract. It's
closing with the low at 55.80. I'm simply telling you this because it
demonstrates the validity of using tools other than going with what the
market looks like it is doing.
So let's cut to the chase here. Some traders see the market better with
cycles, waves, squiggly lines, whatever. Some have a different visual
perception. So you are going to have debates. There are people trading
successfully using PREDICTION methods as well as REACTION. Don't make
assumptions that one is better than another. There are many cycle type
traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't say a
thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a testimony
to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use PREDICTIVE
methods have won various trading contests. So that argrument is mute.
--
Cheers!
Rick J. Ratchford
===========================
Precision Trading Membership
http://FSoftPublishing.com
===========================
Arbitrage <Arbi...@mailcity.com> wrote in message
news:01bf6444$4d453c40$341813d0@oemcomputer...
vladimir
Would You ,please, share with us what type of indicators You
use to confirm trades and what timeframes work best for You?
I personally watch Dow, S&P and Bonds and sometimes without
evenlistening news is easy to tell what is going on.
Thank You
Cordially
Vladimir
* Sent from AltaVista http://www.altavista.com Where you can also find related Web Pages, Images, Audios, Videos, News, and Shopping. Smart is Beautiful
Carl Cook
>And yet we are right back where we started. If a prediction does not
>provide certain knowledge of the future, then it isn't any help once the
>trade is in progress.
I feel that prediction applies to entry, holding and exiting. That
profitable predictions are useful during a trade, helping decide if to hold
and when to exit. Predictions do not just apply to entries.
>Without absolute accuracy, a properly paranoid trader will still be left
>with both the fear of what will happen on *this* trade, and a fear that at
>any moment we may hit a pocket of market behavior that will kill the
method.
Yes, so money management, like a safety net, *must* (or certainly STRONGLY
SHOULD) be there. Because any model, in software or in your head, is going
to have periods of low performance. One must acknowledge the performance of
their tools and methods. To blindly think that any method, statistical or
cranial, always works and will work, under all conditions, is foolish.
> Find me a neural net
>builder for financial markets that didn't have to retrain their system
>because of a significant change in market behavior. I dare ya! :-)
Show me a trader that didn't have to change their trading strategy because
of a significant change in market behavior. I dare ya! <wink>. I suggest
that the money management techniques may be similar past and present, but
certain "parameters", like weights in a neural network, get updated based on
market conditions (eg., tightening / loosening of stops). Most people
might agree that the reactive techniques they use today are different than
before, because the market behavior has changed. If you don't "re-train"
(adjust) your models or methods to adapt to significant changes in the
markets, you increase your risk of loss.
Juan Valdez
wrote:
> Just the past
>several trading days we have had major divergence in the Russell 2000
>indicating this is the sector to be trading or investing - Russell 2000
>futures, options, or small cap fundsand stocks. These type of diverences
>and other momentum patterns I react to are something I "see". It's what
>the market is doing in the present, not the past or the future. Just my
>opinion and mode of trading.
>
>Gary Smith
And I picked this one up on my own since reading your book. Thanks
again for sharing! I've got all the indices lined up on my quote
screen with % change and it's now part of my daily routine to check
them.
Good Trading,
Carl Cook
>I agree. Perhasps I should buy your system Carl? LOL. Of course a free
>trial period would be a friendly and worthy jesture.
Well, we don't have a "system" to sell. Unlike many, we don't sell the
"Holy Grail Trading System", but a tool for building profitable market
timing systems. We do offer a 60 day money back guarantee. You can return
for *any* reason.
>In anticipation of a favourable reply from a scholar and a thorough
>gentleman,
You are too kind, considerate, ...!
Unknown Trader
<T...@nospam.com> wrote:
>Reason will be obvious when you take a look at your daily COTTON chart
>today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as a
>reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
Figured you'd be back to thump your chest on this one..finally guessed
one right. Let's see that puts you at 1 out of 4 for your recent
"forecasts". Is this suposed to prove something? Other than you're
a total jerk, I mean.
>Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to what
>the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up, up.
>So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
>
>As an intraday play (because the trend is obviously up, up, up, up) was to
>do a quick short based on those ratios, cycles, waves and other
>overcomplicated (to some, not to me) tools of the trade. Sell at Market on
>Open, filled at 58.39 March, watched it turn down from being up 78 to down
>around 50, and exited market at 57.00 for 139 points per contract. It's
>closing with the low at 55.80. I'm simply telling you this because it
>demonstrates the validity of using tools other than going with what the
>market looks like it is doing.
You're so full of shit with all this hindsight trading that I can see
it pouring out your ears. Why did you not post this strategy BEFORE
Mr. Guru Wannabe.
>So let's cut to the chase here.
Yes, let's. Where do you get off giving people trading advice. You are
a loser. Could not even make a profit with a play money account. You
are a fraud, thief, and liar. Your living depends on being able to
scam the newbies. PERIOD.
>Some traders see the market better with
>cycles, waves, squiggly lines, whatever. Some have a different visual
>perception. So you are going to have debates. There are people trading
>successfully using PREDICTION methods as well as REACTION. Don't make
>assumptions that one is better than another. There are many cycle type
>traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't say a
>thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a testimony
>to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use PREDICTIVE
>methods have won various trading contests. So that argrument is mute.
What argument. You have ZERO credibility here, so why do you even
bother posting. There's nobody interested in anything you have to say,
other than for entertainment value, you ARE quite a joke.
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
news:O7Q$8tEZ$GA.225@cpmsnbbsa03...
> Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to what
> the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up, up.
> So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
Exactly, because right now the market is going down. Also, you don't trade
a trend following approach to wait for the move to occur and THEN get in.
If I weren't already long, I sure as hell wouldn't be joining a trend that
old and that fast. I probably wouldn't have gone short today, either, but
since I don't trade cotton at present it's not a relevant observation.
> I'm simply telling you this because it
> demonstrates the validity of using tools other than going with what the
> market looks like it is doing.
And you've recently demonstrated the value of tools such as declaring a
crashing Bond market to be in a rally, etc. etc. etc. I notice that as soon
as your Golf Ball Circus accidentally picks an actual, noticable change in
direction that your posts suddenly sound as if this happens all the time.
> And we have already seen examples of those who use PREDICTIVE
> methods have won various trading contests.
Then there's you, who couldn't even use your own predictive method to trade
a fake account without tripping yourself up and then quitting. You'd be a
lot less comical if you actually did any of the things a real trader does.
> So that argrument is mute
Would that were true!
Oh -- did you mean, "moot"? LOL! Hey, now that you've shown the world your
trading prowess by dumping your play money account almost before you began,
you should make a dictionary for all us jaded illiterates.
Jambone
Time Price Trader wrote in message ...
>today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as a
>reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
>
>the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up, up.
>So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
>
Hold on there, asshole! Any trader reacting to market movement would not be
getting long corn today simply because they would have been long 3 weeks
ago. You introduce this red herring as an excuse to crow about your sucky
prediction. You're just trolling for newbies. Please confine your posts to
alt.asshole.golfball.
>
>There are many cycle type
>traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't say
a
>thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a testimony
>to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use PREDICTIVE
>methods have won various trading contests. So that argrument is mute.
OOH! Seekrit techniques that you have uncovered! Where shall I send the
cash? What a loser.
Time Price Trader
Using your ridiculous example of CORN, anyone who has been watching CORN 3
weeks ago would have said this market was trending DOWN. So you simply made
my case again. If you just go with what the market appears to be doing, and
the market in CORN was trending DOWN, you'd be SHORTING.
If you really wanted to sound intelligent, why don't you tell us JUST WHEN a
market that is going down starts to look like a market that is moving UP and
how you would have decided to enter LONG. I'll then show you many examples
on how your short-sided view of the market would have burned your britches.
Now go wash that mouth of yours with soap.
Oh, and by the way. Using our squiggly lines, cycles and waves and other
nonsense, we knew exactly when that TREND was starting to move UP. This is
while YOU would be simply looking at the market and saying...'gee, the trend
is DOWN.'
Rick
Jambone <Jam...@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:xk5i4.2574$pU.4...@typhoon1.gnilink.net...
Juan Valdez
<T...@nospam.com> wrote:
>Oh, and by the way. Using our squiggly lines, cycles and waves and other
>nonsense, we knew exactly when that TREND was starting to move UP. This is
>while YOU would be simply looking at the market and saying...'gee, the trend
>is DOWN.'
Just like that trend change from down to up we're having in T-Bonds or
trend change in live cattle last summer when you were shorting all the
way to the top?
leif_e...@my-deja.com
super cycle wave calls youre so successful.
Leif
In article <O7Q$8tEZ$GA.225@cpmsnbbsa03>,
"Time Price Trader" <T...@nospam.com> wanked, wanked, wanked:
> Reason will be obvious when you take a look at your daily COTTON chart
> today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as
a
> reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
>
> Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to
what
> the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up,
up.
> So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
>
> As an intraday play (because the trend is obviously up, up, up, up)
was to
> do a quick short based on those ratios, cycles, waves and other
> overcomplicated (to some, not to me) tools of the trade. Sell at
Market on
> Open, filled at 58.39 March, watched it turn down from being up 78 to
down
> around 50, and exited market at 57.00 for 139 points per contract.
It's
> closing with the low at 55.80. I'm simply telling you this because it
> demonstrates the validity of using tools other than going with what
the
> market looks like it is doing.
>
> So let's cut to the chase here. Some traders see the market better
with
> cycles, waves, squiggly lines, whatever. Some have a different visual
> perception. So you are going to have debates. There are people trading
> successfully using PREDICTION methods as well as REACTION. Don't make
> assumptions that one is better than another. There are many cycle type
> traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't
say a
> thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a
testimony
> to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use
PREDICTIVE
> methods have won various trading contests. So that argrument is mute.
>
> --
> Cheers!
> Rick J. Ratchford
>
> ===========================
> Precision Trading Membership
> http://FSoftPublishing.com
> ===========================
>
> Arbitrage <Arbi...@mailcity.com> wrote in message
> news:01bf6444$4d453c40$341813d0@oemcomputer...
> >
> >
> > SCOTTTRADE <scott...@aol.com> wrote in article
> > <20000119152853...@ng-cj1.aol.com>...
> > >
> > > Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading.
Good
> > traders
> > > react to what the market is DOING.
> >
> > Sounds good to me. I can't think of any topic that has generated
more
> > debate over the years than market prediction. I always thought the
> simpler
> > the better in trading. Why complicate matters with ratios, squiggly
lines
> > on a chart, waves, cycles, or other perceptual filters used by
traders to
> > understand market behavior.
>
>
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
leif_e...@my-deja.com
get thrown off when you make the mistake of posting them here b4 they
happen. Must be that negative energy from all us "closed minds" who
refuse to see how a call in the other direction isn't Wrong.
Leif
In article <OLnTis6Y$GA.246@cpmsnbbsa02>,
"Time Price Trader" <T...@nospam.com> once again wrote about something
he dosen't have a clue about:
> The silliest thing ever spoken, and not spoken alone. 'I like to react
to
> what the market is doing.'
>
> Okay. Tell us what the market is doing.
>
> "uh, I think it is moving up now."
>
> Then, tell us how you will react.
>
> "uh, I think I will go long now."
>
> Tell us why you would react that way?
>
> "uh, cause I think it will keep moving up now." (predicting)
>
> And reality sinks in when the obvious is learned. Tops are formed by
prices
> moving up. So you go long. Want to go long when it makes a top? Yeah,
> right.
>
> :)
>
> Rick
>
> SCOTTTRADE <scott...@aol.com> wrote in message
leif_e...@my-deja.com
prediction that the existing trend is causal. Given that, Scott's
reasoning is sounder by far than the Assistant Astrologer's attempts to
justify his fdate system as somehow right.
A question though. Your model for index forcasting; is it neural-net
based (notising the "biocomp")? The 99.99% confidence level is a pretty
high claim - I don't mean that to be doubting your word - and I have a
hard time imagining how a system can attain such a liklihood in less
than a year (limited # of datapoints) and be viable after taxes and
trading costs to a 3X increase. How do you deal with overtraining
issues?
Leif
In article <65Ih4.380$nx5....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net>,
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote:
> Hi Scott,
>
> >Good traders do NOT try to predict where the market is heading. Good
> traders
> >react to what the market is DOING.
>
> >
> >The idea behind trading is to put the odds in your favor. You can do
this
> >whatever way you please. Dont fall into the trap of trying to
predict
> where
> Carl Cook
> BioComp Systems, Inc.
> http://www.biocompsystems.com
>
>
Jambone
Time Price Trader wrote in message <#9PJTaHZ$GA.220@cpmsnbbsa04>...
>And you can confine your posts to alt.ignorant.frustrated.vulgar-mouth.
>
>Using your ridiculous example of CORN, anyone who has been watching CORN 3
>weeks ago would have said this market was trending DOWN. So you simply made
>my case again. If you just go with what the market appears to be doing,
and
>the market in CORN was trending DOWN, you'd be SHORTING.
>
You're way off asshole. Try to follow along and I will set you straight.
>If you really wanted to sound intelligent, why don't you tell us JUST WHEN
a
>market that is going down starts to look like a market that is moving UP
and
>how you would have decided to enter LONG. I'll then show you many examples
>on how your short-sided view of the market would have burned your britches.
>
>Now go wash that mouth of yours with soap.
>
I got long corn on 12/23/99. Please note that from my perspective a market
that was going down had now started to go up. I had to get long, it's just
that simple. Cha-Ching! How did I know that this was a market that had been
going down? Because I was short of corn on 10/20/99. Cha-Ching! You will
note that in both instances a new trend had already begun. I don't wait for
the Mars/Jupiter conjunction to confirm it. And I don't pull phony/baloney
dates out of my ass either. I just trade the trend and sooner or later I get
taken out or get flat.
>Oh, and by the way. Using our squiggly lines, cycles and waves and other
>nonsense, we knew exactly when that TREND was starting to move UP. This is
>while YOU would be simply looking at the market and saying...'gee, the
trend
>is DOWN.'
>
>Rick
See now there you go again. Trolling and spamming for newbies who you can
burn for cash with your Seekrit techniques and your shitdates. Case in
point: After your crappy corn call you quickly post stating that you took a
daytrade profit because the trend is clearly up. In your slithering way the
implications cover all bases for you. If corn goes down Monday, well see, my
prophetic shitdate is all-knowing; if corn goes up, well I told you it was
an uptrend. I guess it's not over my head after all.
You remind me in one way only of a guy I knew. This guy was the worst
football handicapper I ever met. He too used idiotic methods for his
analysis. Things like "you gotta bet the Raiders on Monday Nite cause they
always cover on Monday Nite." At least he was honest. Anyway, I faded this
guy left and right and won most of the time. What's the tie in you ask? Well
here it is, Asshead. I faded some of your crappy calls and you've funded my
Superbowl trip to Vegas. Cha-Ching!
I'll be at Binions at the 10/20 Holdem table. Drop on by and I'll call your
bluff again.
Jambone
PS
I speak a few foreign languages. In Mandarin Cha-Ching means golfball.
>
>
>
>Jambone <Jam...@nospam.com> wrote in message
>news:xk5i4.2574$pU.4...@typhoon1.gnilink.net...
>>
>> Time Price Trader wrote in message ...
>> >Reason will be obvious when you take a look at your daily COTTON chart
>> >today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as a
>> >reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
>> >
>> >Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to
what
>> >the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up,
>up.
>> >So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
>> >
>>
>> Hold on there, asshole! Any trader reacting to market movement would not
>be
>> getting long corn today simply because they would have been long 3 weeks
>> ago. You introduce this red herring as an excuse to crow about your sucky
>> prediction. You're just trolling for newbies. Please confine your posts
to
>> alt.asshole.golfball.
>> >
>> >There are many cycle type
>> >traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't
>say
>> a
>> >thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a
>testimony
>> >to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use
>PREDICTIVE
>> >methods have won various trading contests. So that argrument is mute.
>>
>>
Carl Cook
>I agree, Carl; anticipating = forecasting. Going with the current is a
>prediction that the existing trend is causal.
Thanks.
> Given that, Scott's
>reasoning is sounder by far than the Assistant Astrologer's attempts to
>justify his fdate system as somehow right.
Uh, I'm going to avoid that line of "discussion", if you don't mind <wink>.
>A question though. Your model for index forcasting; is it neural-net
>based (notising the "biocomp")?
Yes, it is neural network based. Actually a committee of neural networks
that vote based on recent equity performance.
> The 99.99% confidence level is a pretty
>high claim - I don't mean that to be doubting your word - and I have a
>hard time imagining how a system can attain such a liklihood in less
>than a year (limited # of datapoints) and be viable after taxes and
>trading costs to a 3X increase.
The 99.99% (an estimate) is based on statistical tests of the system versus
the equity performance of 1,000 random trading signals (1,000 monkeys
flipping coins). We compute the mean (average) and standard deviation (the
extent that it varies) of the 1,000 random signals vs. the equity
performance of the system. About 2 standard deviations difference between
the means is about 95% confidence that the system is not random, and the
equity performance of the system on the web site is about 9 standard
deviations away from the mean of random. I don't have my statistics tables
handy, but I'd estimate that the confidence is over 99%.
It should be noted that, even in an upward trending market, the mean equity
of random is below zero (loss), in part due to slippage and commission, but
more interestingly is that it is not unusual for random signals to be
profitable (or appear that way). This helps justify the scepticism in this
newsgroup and should make those who are selling the "Holy Grail Trading
System" to go back and read their statistics books and calculate the
confidence their system is not random.
> How do you deal with overtraining issues?
This can be a challenge, one that we've worked on for more than a decade.
We actually split data into four (4) data sets:
1. "Training set" (used to create the models: set the weights, tune your
stops, set parameters of trading systems, etc.)
2. "Test set" (used to determine when to stop training the models based on
equity performance [not accuracy])
3. "Validation set" (used to determine out of sample equity performance
within the modeling system and decide which models to keep )
4. "Out-of-Sample set" (used to display to you true financial performance of
the system so you can decide whether to trade it).
After going all through that, you know how "robust" the system has performed
out-of-sample recently. If all looks good, tomorrow is real money.
Anything goes, but you've got a tool at your side that has been
statistically proven to work recently.
Our company is a collection of traders, certified broker-level consultants,
fund managers, quants, engineers (chemical), computer science, math and
physics with degrees running from 4 year to PhD.
Thanks for listening,
winch p
for MACDAC). The best thing I suggest is to leave him alone completely,
keep posts short and treat him as the irrlevancy he is. The more said the
happier he is. He loves the attention (he didn't get enough as a child, and
he got the wrong kind of attention thats why he has such a warped
perception) of reality.
P
"Troutman, Defender of Sticks" <trou...@defendercapital.com> wrote in
message news:2h5i4.6425$C4.9...@news1.teleport.com...
> Monty Golfball <T...@nospam.com> wrote in message
> news:O7Q$8tEZ$GA.225@cpmsnbbsa03...
>
> > Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to
what
> > the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up,
up.
> > So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
>
> Exactly, because right now the market is going down. Also, you don't
trade
> a trend following approach to wait for the move to occur and THEN get in.
> If I weren't already long, I sure as hell wouldn't be joining a trend that
> old and that fast. I probably wouldn't have gone short today, either, but
> since I don't trade cotton at present it's not a relevant observation.
>
> > I'm simply telling you this because it
> > demonstrates the validity of using tools other than going with what the
> > market looks like it is doing.
>
> And you've recently demonstrated the value of tools such as declaring a
> crashing Bond market to be in a rally, etc. etc. etc. I notice that as
soon
> as your Golf Ball Circus accidentally picks an actual, noticable change in
> direction that your posts suddenly sound as if this happens all the time.
>
> > And we have already seen examples of those who use PREDICTIVE
> > methods have won various trading contests.
>
winch p
Your story below is like the fellow that blew a fortune with his bookie
gambling on basketball.
Down to his last 5 dollars his bookie suggested trying hockey.
"Why the hell would I want to do that", said the punter "I don't know a
thing about hockey!"
P
> You remind me in one way only of a guy I knew. This guy was the worst
> football handicapper I ever met. He too used idiotic methods for his
> analysis. Things like "you gotta bet the Raiders on Monday Nite cause they
> always cover on Monday Nite." At least he was honest. Anyway, I faded this
> guy left and right and won most of the time. What's the tie in you ask?
Well
> here it is, Asshead. I faded some of your crappy calls and you've funded
my
> Superbowl trip to Vegas. Cha-Ching!
>
> I'll be at Binions at the 10/20 Holdem table. Drop on by and I'll call
your
> bluff again.
>
> Jambone
>
> PS
> I speak a few foreign languages. In Mandarin Cha-Ching means golfball.
> >
> >
> >
> >Jambone <Jam...@nospam.com> wrote in message
> >news:xk5i4.2574$pU.4...@typhoon1.gnilink.net...
> >>
> >> Time Price Trader wrote in message ...
> >> >Reason will be obvious when you take a look at your daily COTTON chart
> >> >today. As posted yesterday, I said to expect Cotton to move lower as
a
> >> >reversal is due now. This is based on ratios, cycles, waves, whatever.
> >> >
> >> >Now, if you simply go by the statement Scott used below to 'react to
> what
> >> >the market is DOING', what was it doing? It has been going up, up, up,
> >up.
> >> >So, do you then go long now? Try no, no, no, no!
> >> >
> >>
> >> Hold on there, asshole! Any trader reacting to market movement would
not
> >be
> >> getting long corn today simply because they would have been long 3
weeks
> >> ago. You introduce this red herring as an excuse to crow about your
sucky
> >> prediction. You're just trolling for newbies. Please confine your posts
> to
> >> alt.asshole.golfball.
> >> >
> >> >There are many cycle type
> >> >traders that would rather you never learned their techniques and won't
> >say
> >> a
> >> >thing to you. I wouldn't be so quick to assume such silence is a
> >testimony
> >> >to failure. And we have already seen examples of those who use
> >PREDICTIVE
I...@not.listening
>RR fancies himself as a pseudo intellectual. Software programmer (he says
>for MACDAC). The best thing I suggest is to leave him alone completely,
>keep posts short and treat him as the irrlevancy he is. The more said the
>happier he is. He loves the attention (he didn't get enough as a child, and
>he got the wrong kind of attention thats why he has such a warped
>perception) of reality.
>
>P
Welcome to my killfile. The newsgroup is to discuss futures, not show
disrespect for people. Now I'll never have to read another of your
messages.
SCOTTTRADE
19, plus or minus one bar! ROTFLMAO!
Scott
Juan wrote,
Time Price Trader
Rick
Carl Cook <nom...@nomail.com> wrote in message
news:87di4.2105$oa7....@dfiatx1-snr1.gtei.net...
winch p
(LOL). The real Dream of Martin Luther, "FREE. Free at Last"
Everyone knows I do concern myself with futures. The only personal
exception I seek some tolerance from other ng members are my postings
against software theives and crooks.
RR doesn't fit the above category but you would not grow fat on the
difference. He's as harmless as an encyclopeadia salesman or a used car
salesman and all those other marketers who have sold me all that useless
junk around my house that I used twice either befire it broke or I realised
it was actually more trouble than it was worth. The usual excuse for stop
using that stuff is because my life changes, things move on and they are
just not valuable.
Does any of that sound familiar. Do you need Fdates? Anything RR literally,
not metaphorically, made up in his backyard, never exposed to scrutiny from
independent people, nor a demonstated track record of its use either by
himself or by independent users, well who can believe it?
It's time RR stopped the nuisance posts of a vendor. His other posts where
he give long market explanations I can tolerate. Free speech and all but
the self promotion is not discussion about futre.
There. Now you know what my spleen looks like when its vented.
P
<I...@not.listening> wrote in message
news:89jj8skaef2sjs7ag...@4ax.com...
leif_e...@my-deja.com
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote:
<snip>
> >A question though. Your model for index forcasting; is it neural-net
> >based (notising the "biocomp")?
>
> Yes, it is neural network based. Actually a committee of neural
networks
> that vote based on recent equity performance.
>
I'm a layman and know very little about neural net development and GAs,
I'm afraid.
> > The 99.99% confidence level is a pretty
> >high claim - I don't mean that to be doubting your word - and I have
a
> >hard time imagining how a system can attain such a liklihood in less
> >than a year (limited # of datapoints) and be viable after taxes and
> >trading costs to a 3X increase.
>
> The 99.99% (an estimate) is based on statistical tests of the system
versus
> the equity performance of 1,000 random trading signals (1,000 monkeys
> flipping coins). We compute the mean (average) and standard deviation
(the
> extent that it varies) of the 1,000 random signals vs. the equity
> performance of the system.
Though that's not a pure statistical test from what I understand..
About 2 standard deviations difference
between
> the means is about 95% confidence that the system is not random, and
the
> equity performance of the system on the web site is about 9 standard
> deviations away from the mean of random. I don't have my statistics
tables
> handy, but I'd estimate that the confidence is over 99%.
>
You'd be right; given normal assumptions 3 sigmas would meet the .01
confidence interval. I don't have any formal training in statistics, so
I'm about at the edge of what I know here. The assumption though is of a
normal bell curve, which is tricky for mkt action and equity changes.
> It should be noted that, even in an upward trending market, the mean
equity
> of random is below zero (loss), in part due to slippage and
commission, but
> more interestingly is that it is not unusual for random signals to be
> profitable (or appear that way). This helps justify the scepticism in
this
> newsgroup and should make those who are selling the "Holy Grail
Trading
> System" to go back and read their statistics books and calculate the
> confidence their system is not random.
>
I fully agree.
> > How do you deal with overtraining issues?
>
> This can be a challenge, one that we've worked on for more than a
decade.
> We actually split data into four (4) data sets:
>
> 1. "Training set" (used to create the models: set the weights, tune
your
> stops, set parameters of trading systems, etc.)
> 2. "Test set" (used to determine when to stop training the models
based on
> equity performance [not accuracy])
> 3. "Validation set" (used to determine out of sample equity
performance
> within the modeling system and decide which models to keep )
> 4. "Out-of-Sample set" (used to display to you true financial
performance of
> the system so you can decide whether to trade it).
>
*nods* Standard practise, I suppose. The training set rationale I'm
familiar with from systems dynamics.
> After going all through that, you know how "robust" the system has
performed
> out-of-sample recently. If all looks good, tomorrow is real money.
> Anything goes, but you've got a tool at your side that has been
> statistically proven to work recently.
>
What isn't known is long(er) term stability, though, but that's fine if
there's a consistent "fill" in the curve; ok to live with the "X" factor
given adaptive ability without overoptimising.
> Our company is a collection of traders, certified broker-level
consultants,
> fund managers, quants, engineers (chemical), computer science, math
and
> physics with degrees running from 4 year to PhD.
>
Cool; do you have plans to develop for contingency planing and risk
management solutions also?
> Thanks for listening,
Thanks for an interesting perspective and giving something to think
about. *s* For real, it's refereshing here!
Carl Cook
Hi Leif,
>> Yes, it is neural network based. Actually a committee of neural
>networks that vote based on recent equity performance.
>>
>If I understand, they're federated, with cross-optimising algorithms?
>I'm a layman and know very little about neural net development and GAs,
>I'm afraid.
No, they are independent. You question gives you away as knowing more than
you imply, however <wink>.
>Though that's not a pure statistical test from what I understand..
>You'd be right; given normal assumptions 3 sigmas would meet the .01
>confidence interval. I don't have any formal training in statistics, so
>I'm about at the edge of what I know here. The assumption though is of a
>normal bell curve, which is tricky for mkt action and equity changes.
It's intended to be a guide and if you know of a better statistical test,
you can reach me through the contact page of the website at the bottom of
this message (none of which go to me, but they can forward to me) and we can
take our discussion "off-line".
[regarding four data sets...]
>*nods* Standard practise, I suppose. The training set rationale I'm
>familiar with from systems dynamics.
Not quite standard practice [no other packages do it this way, that I know
of], but mathematically sound, easy to understand and a practice our
customers agree is the best way to do it. Part of the challenge is to have
sufficient trades in each period (~30) to get a good read on actual
performance.
>What isn't known is long(er) term stability, though, but that's fine if
>there's a consistent "fill" in the curve; ok to live with the "X" factor
>given adaptive ability without overoptimising.
Part of the adaptive ability has no real optimizing, but equity curve
following. The technique works if there is "persistence" in the equity
curves, i.e., if a model has been making money for the last N bars, it
probably will for another day, or if a model has been losing money for the
last N bars, it probably will for one more day. Generally holds up. The
system adaptively switches models through time automatically, shifting with
interest/focus of the markets. The bottom line results are more robust
[stable] performance.
>Cool; do you have plans to develop for contingency planing and risk
>management solutions also?
I can't say one way or another. Lots of ears, annonomous "faces". I, like
other successful CEOs, respect paranoia <grin>.
>Thanks for an interesting perspective and giving something to think
>about. *s* For real, it's refereshing here!
Thanks!
leif_e...@my-deja.com
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote:
>
> Hi Leif,
>
> >> Yes, it is neural network based. Actually a committee of neural
> >networks that vote based on recent equity performance.
> >>
> >If I understand, they're federated, with cross-optimising algorithms?
> >I'm a layman and know very little about neural net development and
GAs,
> >I'm afraid.
>
> No, they are independent. You question gives you away as knowing more
than
> you imply, however <wink>.
>
your field to tell you the truth.
<Snip exchange which I'd have to study and get back to if youre still
interested - deep for my English and Stats knowledge>
>
> >Cool; do you have plans to develop for contingency planing and risk
> >management solutions also?
>
> I can't say one way or another. Lots of ears, annonomous "faces". I,
like
> other successful CEOs, respect paranoia <grin>.
>
Oh no, I meant asking are you planning to develop Products for risk
management! It would seem (to me at least) to be a market with high
potential for neural nets and consulting services based on them.
Leif
Carl Cook
Hi Leif,
>*s* thank you, but I only have an "Information Week" understanding of
>your field to tell you the truth.
When you ask about "federated, with cross-optimising algorithms", you would
be reading IEEE or INNS journals (papers published on this topic just
recently). Those techniques are actively being researched in the academic
world. I'd say that you are pretty on top of things.
>Oh no, I meant asking are you planning to develop Products for risk
>management! It would seem (to me at least) to be a market with high
>potential for neural nets and consulting services based on them.
Sorry for my miscommunication, I meant that to reveal our product
development plans (say, regarding risk management), would be risky for me.
Risk having two meanings here.
Thanks for listening,
leif_e...@my-deja.com
"Carl Cook" <nom...@nomail.com> wrote:
>
> Hi Leif,
>
> >*s* thank you, but I only have an "Information Week" understanding of
> >your field to tell you the truth.
>
> When you ask about "federated, with cross-optimising algorithms", you
would
> be reading IEEE or INNS journals (papers published on this topic just
> recently). Those techniques are actively being researched in the
academic
> world. I'd say that you are pretty on top of things.
>
cynical arrogant so and so! ;)
> >Oh no, I meant asking are you planning to develop Products for risk
> >management! It would seem (to me at least) to be a market with high
> >potential for neural nets and consulting services based on them.
>
> Sorry for my miscommunication, I meant that to reveal our product
> development plans (say, regarding risk management), would be risky for
me.
> Risk having two meanings here.
>
*nods* I didn't think of that, Carl. (Note, FWIW, it actually Did dawn
on me soon enough that usenet maybe wasn't the place to discuss testing
methodologies, especially given a layman's explanation for my
understanding.) *s*