Can the Little Guy Win in Futures?
hugo...@webtv.net
Can the little guy win in futures?
How can the average guy get started?
Private responses are welcomed.
Thank you.
CycleVantage Trading
Your size really doesn't matter (in trading that is).
1. Simply get started by READING a lot of books on the subject.
2. Open an account.
3. Start by trading a single Mid-Am contract with a stop-loss order. Feel
the pain. Feel the glory. Learn to be indifferent to both.
4. Ignore the rantings of negative traders, many that you will find here on
this newsgroup. Flow with the positive ones.
5. Keep a siz-pack of Corona's on ice at all times.
<hugo...@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:10063-37...@newsd-223.iap.bryant.webtv.net...
CycleVantage Trading
Until you come to understand this concept yourself, you'll never achieve
real financial independence. And those who accept your advice will only be
held back like yourself.
I guess Bill Gates really needed the royalties from his book. Same for
George Sorros and many other *successful* individuals. We simply have a
grasp on business concepts, and have something of value to offer others.
As for your reasoning that 'if it works like he says, why is it for sale?',
that makes no sense. Selling information does not remove it from my
possession. If it did, I wouldn't sell it. I'd lock it up real tight.
Instead, it remains useful to me and to those who acquire it, and is MORE
VALUABLE this way.
Now Jefro, I know you find these concepts hard to understand, and this of
course explains your current circumstances, but it is a really simple
concept.
Here, maybe this illustration will help you.
If you had $100, what would make it more valuable to you?
1) Keeping it to yourself by placing it under your mattress? (keeping it to
yourself)
2) Putting it in a savings account and collecting interest? (letting others
use that money as well)
If you are smart, you would have selected choice #2. But that means others
would have to use YOUR $100 dollars. Now, what would be the smart thing to
do here:
1) Using the $100 to create a single income source? (single use product)
2) Using the $100 to create multiple streams of income? (multiple use
product)
Again, choice #2 is preferable.
So Jefro, to address your shortsighted question, as long as I am not going
to lose my original material or source, I offer it to others for a fee so
that it not only benefits them (has value), but also increases the income
potential.
As the developer of this information, and having clearly established its
value among hundreds of traders who find it indispensable, it is my
prerogative to make it more productive.
If you still find this hard to grasp, then may I suggest you remove that
$100 you've been keeping in that 1.5% savings account all these years and
simply put it under your mattress?
--
Cheers!
:)
Rick J. Ratchford
--
==============================================
CycleVantage Membership
"Know Today the Market Turns of Tomorrow!"
http://FSoftPublishing.com
Wdates/Fdates are high probability reversal dates provided
in advance. Wdates deals with the weekly time frame, while
Fdates deals with the daily time frame. Details at website.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES.
==============================================
Jefro. <Jefro...@TheCeementPond.com> wrote in message
news:37ad6875....@news.alt.net...
> On Wed, 4 Aug 1999 10:52:23 -0400 (EDT), hugo...@webtv.net wrote:
>
> >
> >Can the little guy win in futures?
>
> Depends on how bad you want it and how hard you're willing to work.
>
> >How can the average guy get started?
>
> Read and paper trade, then jump in and learn how to deal with losing
> real money. Learn to trade what you see and react to the markets,
> don't try to forecast. Don't go in search of the "Holy Grail", it's
> not out there. Start with a simple method or trading strategy that
> fits your individual style. Focus on controlling risk and preserving
> your account.
> Avoid vendors like Ratchford that make extravagant claims they can
> not back up. Always ask yourself, if it works like he says, why is it
> for sale. If it works like he says, why is he wasting his time posting
> informercials in m.i.f. instead of spending all those profits. Use
> common sense. You will only get out of it what you are willing to put
> in.
>
> Good Luck
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
CycleVantage Trading
uses the word *fact*, then it is time to use our grain of salt once again to
give it any chance. Obviously, it is pointless to argue against such
assumptions or vicious outbursts. We will simply go round and round, "I am
not", "You are too", "I am not", lada lada lada.
Several of my clients have worked with me personally by flying out here to
California. And the consensus is quite clear. There will always be JEFROS
that overuse and misuse the word *fact*.
If you are interested in the hyperbole of this ceement pond hybrid, then ask
yourself this question:
"If his random dates are better, why isn't he able to satisfy a growing
throng of people wanting to trade profitably, instead of jealously slashing
away at something that is?"
--
Cheers!
:)
Rick J. Ratchford
--
==============================================
CycleVantage Membership
"Know Today the Market Turns of Tomorrow!"
http://FSoftPublishing.com
Wdates/Fdates are high probability reversal dates provided
in advance. Wdates deals with the weekly time frame, while
Fdates deals with the daily time frame. Details at website.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES.
==============================================
Jefro. <Jefro...@TheCeementPond.com> wrote in message
news:37b08e03....@news.alt.net...
> I assume you are refering to that $100 profit you made trading cattle
> last month? hehehe
>
> The fact remains that if your so called service did what you
> advertised, over the course of 2 years, you should have compounded
> your profits into several million $$ by now.
>
> The fact remains that if you so called service had any true value you
> would not have to troll mif for newbies, the gullible, and the
> uninformed.
>
> The fact remains that you refuse to provide any proof in the form of a
> verifiable track record that your so called service has any value at
> all.
>
> The fact remains that dates generated at random performed better than
> your so called service.
>
> The fact remains that you have been caught many times posting phoney
> testimonials as to the value of your so called service and even went
> as far as to get a friend into trouble over your false advertisements.
>
> The fact remains that you have zero credibility, and are a habitual
> liar.
>
> The fact remains even though you try to deflect every direct question
> that is asked of you, you are still seen for what you really are by
> anyone with an ounce of common sense. A cheat and a fraud.
>
> The fact remains that this is a better newsgroup without you.
INFERNO598
I buy a mid-am corn contract at 235 and my round-turn trade cost is $12 at an
online discount broker, exactly how much will that cost?) BTW, I really do
want to know. :-)
Alan Myers
according to a study I read. This contains some useful info - don't let the
title throw you:
http://ideas.uqam.ca/ideas/data/Papers/wopilucae9701.html
You'll need Adobe Acrobat to read it.
The bigger the account, the better your ability to withstand the learning
curve. It is just like any other business, if you have enough capital, you
can use that to make up for a lot of mistakes and/or endure long periods of
little or no revenue.
The more you put into it before you start trading, the less money you are
going to need, to a point. You still have to adequately fund your worst
case analysis of the method you are using to trade.
Beware of any vendor that can't, or more likely, won't provide information
that statistically defines the worst that can happen.
To start, I'd say be prepared to spend a lot of time - this is not easy, but
it is not impossible either. Most of the people that try fail at trading.
Most people that try any business fail. So what? Read a lot of books. If
the author turns out to be full of crap, you are not out that much.
Besides, your library or inter library loans allow you access to the best of
the bunch for free. Use their ideas to develop your own trading method and
style. Test your method until you know it well. Jump in with both feet.
Have fun!
~Alan
hugo...@webtv.net wrote in message
<10063-37...@newsd-223.iap.bryant.webtv.net>...
Can the little guy win in futures?
How can the average guy get started?
Private responses are welcomed.
Thank you.
Alan Myers
CycleVantage Trading .
|
|Several of my clients have worked with me personally by flying out here to
|California.
Hype or substance? Hmmmmmm...where is that substance? It is certainly a
true fact that it has never appeared here, although there has been plenty of
testimonials. Go away ratchford. This newsgroup is better without you.
~Alan
CycleVantage Trading
with it rather than allow the successes of others to bring you down.
Lashing out isn't going to help your trading either. And calling your
delusions a 'verified fact' hardly makes it so.
Here is a fact. Fdates are absolutely fantastic! You can quote me on that.
:)
rick
PS: Jefro. Wouldn't it be great if your trading made sounds like this?
CHA-CHING!
Jefro. <Jefro...@TheCeementPond.com> wrote in message
news:37b1aab3....@news.alt.net...
> On Wed, 4 Aug 1999 13:46:35 -0700, "CycleVantage Trading"
> <NoS...@UseWeblink.Below> wrote:
>
> >My greatest fan Jefro (an alias of course) has spoken. When this person
> >uses the word *fact*, then it is time to use our grain of salt once again
to
> >give it any chance.
>
> Just like the Fdates
>
> >Obviously, it is pointless to argue against such
> >assumptions or vicious outbursts. We will simply go round and round, "I
am
> >not", "You are too", "I am not", lada lada lada.
>
> Again you are avoiding the issues. Everything I said is a verified
> FACT! Since you can't address the issuse truthfully your reply is an
> attack.
>
> >
> >"If his random dates are better, why isn't he able to satisfy a growing
> >throng of people wanting to trade profitably, instead of jealously
slashing
> >away at something that is?"
>
> Another deflection of the real issues. I don't have anything for sale.
> YOU are the vendor leeching off the newbies and those who don't know
> any better. Random dates are not mine and you know it! The random date
> test was done to show that your dates performed no better than dates
> picked at random.
>
> What's with the jealousy bit. Why do you think everyone is jealous
> just because they counter your BS and lies with the truth. You're the
> one that's been caught lying here, not I.
>
>
CycleVantage Trading
With your help, our 4th year is looking to be better than ever. Thanks for
the exposure the past 2 days. I'm having a hard time catching up with
admissions.
:)
Rick
Alan Myers <a.m...@home.com> wrote in message
news:mN2q3.10287$0g4....@news1.rdc1.ab.home.com...
CycleVantage Trading
put it.
*WE* has nothing to do with being financial equals. It is in reference to
being *successful*.
Sort it out.
:)
rick
Mike Higgs <moon...@always-online.com> wrote in message
news:01bedee1$c2504180$e988...@moongate.always-online.com...
> CycleVantage Trading <NoS...@UseWeblink.Below> wrote in article
> <u85JHjq3#GA.362@cpmsnbbsa05>...
> > Why you ask? We understand the logic behind multiple streams of income.
> > Until you come to understand this concept yourself, you'll never achieve
> > real financial independence. And those who accept your advice will only
> be
> > held back like yourself.
> >
> > I guess Bill Gates really needed the royalties from his book. Same for
> > George Sorros and many other *successful* individuals. We simply have a
> > grasp on business concepts, and have something of value to offer others.
>
>
> Rick,
>
> I normally pass on getting involved in any of your posts because I'd
rather
> not contribute to your advertising effort by doing so but I couldn't pass
> on this one. What is this "we" stuff?????? Gates, Sorros, and
Ratchford -
> financial powers of the late 20th century!!?? I'll give you the benefit
of
> the doubt on fdates but putting yourself in the same league with Gates and
> Sorros is over the top. Congratulations on taking bs to a new level.
>
>
> Regards,
> Mike
>
> --
> Aboard 35' Edel Cat "Moongate" in New Bern, NC
>
Mike Higgs
is one of two things: a rip-off artist or a system developer with
optimized hypothetical results that can't be replicated going forward. No
statement = No system = Saving yourself a lot of money and agony!!!!!
Jefro. <Jefro...@TheCeementPond.com> wrote in article
<37ad6875....@news.alt.net>...
> On Wed, 4 Aug 1999 10:52:23 -0400 (EDT), hugo...@webtv.net wrote:
>
> >
> >Can the little guy win in futures?
>
> Depends on how bad you want it and how hard you're willing to work.
>
> >How can the average guy get started?
>
Mike Higgs
Alan Myers
they get a jar of vaseline with a membership these days?
~Alan
CycleVantage Trading wrote in message ...
Michael J. Scheltgen
>
> I guess Bill Gates really needed the royalties from his book.
Bill Gates did not write a book that purported to teach people how to
become billionaires in the computer software industry.
Mike Higgs
> Whatever Mike. Jump in anytime. Contribute to my advertising campaign as
you
> put it.
>
> *WE* has nothing to do with being financial equals. It is in reference to
> being *successful*.
>
> Sort it out.
Oh but I have Rick. You put yourself in the same league as Gates and
Soros. THAT is BS. Sort it out, Rick.
CycleVantage Trading
You and Jefro mention vasoline quite a bit. Is there something you guys
want to tell us?
Alan Myers <a.m...@home.com> wrote in message
news:e1aq3.11480$0g4.1...@news1.rdc1.ab.home.com...
CycleVantage Trading
But he gets *royalties*.
That is the point.
Michael J. Scheltgen <mjs...@mail.usask.ca> wrote in message
news:37A93AF9...@mail.usask.ca...
Lenny Anders
when to get out and your sell stops. It takes the agony out of
decision making and so far this year Ive made remarkable profits. Thank
You Jake!
Michael J. Scheltgen
No one said he did. However, I believe the subject pertained to people
with "great" trading systems selling their systems. If someone had a
system that worked they would use it to generate trading profits and
then market it to a CPO or something, not sell it (I am referring to
systems, not technical indicators or methodologies which you are
selling). And you made the comment that Bill Gates among others have
written books. So, in the context of the discussion I made the comment
I did regarding Bill Gates.
Best regards,
MS
--
,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ
Michael Scheltgen | Mark my words -
Department of Economics | I have a Yen for
University of Saskatchewan | a Pound of Francs...
michael....@usask.ca | - Anonymous
,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°°Īø,ļ_ļ,øĪ°`°Īø,ļ_ļ
cb
>
>
> Thank you.
Best intro to the markets plus some info on techniques is Elements of
Successful Trading by Robert Rotella. No it's not a complete system
(few books present that) but its a good intro. Very inexpensive at
about $25 at amazon.
Winner Take All by Robert Gallagher. Traderspress or maybe amazon
($40?) Read the second half to get an idea about the level of drawdowns
your favorite technique may experience. See how he decides how big his
acct. should be based on an example system - not a system for you to
trade necessarily, but just an illustration of how BIG drawdowns can be
w/ mechanical systems. Read the first half of the book before you are
wowed enough by someone's ad to shell out big bucks on some seminar.
Also some interesting discussion of the usefulness of trendlines etc.
that look great on a chart in hindsight but what about as the chart is
developing. I don't agree with everything he says but an interesting
read and perhaps the second book all new traders should get.
Maybe at this pt. get Technical Analysis by Jack Schwaeger - he gives
both some patterns and indcators and you can decide if you want to
specialize in one or both.
It's probably best to come up with your own system rather than buy one.
Why? Some systems are junk. Even if it's good, you may not like it's
logic and you won't know that til you buy it (and cant' return it). Or
it may be a black box system and you won't really trust it. The
temptation to over-rule someone else's system will be greater than your
own, I find.
I'd try to follow a newsletter only if 1) the newsletter is tracked by a
third party like CTCR. 2) you understand the acct. size suggested and
drawdowns usually produced by the advisor and these are acceptable to
you and your acct., and 3) if you expect to reproduce the advisor's
record, you need to resolve to take all the trades.
The truth is that being undercapitalized makes it harder. A mediocre
trend following system will probably manage to make money each year if
applied to 20 commodities bec. a few will be big winners. If you have
to pick a subset, you have the luck of the draw in a sense, whether you
get the big trends in *your* subset. It'll be necessary to trade even
smaller than normal % of your acct. so you can keep your subset going
several years. Also, the smaller your acct. the more you will have to
decide between stops that are too risky for your acct. vs. stops that
are too close given market "noise", rather than the "right" stop.
Little guys sometimes win, either through luck (the big score, after
which unless they are prudent they will later crash), or patience. Some
of us are not successful yet, but keep plugging away (stubborn!)
The best advice I think is to resolve to study for 6-12 months before
you place a single trade for real. Trade on paper though; just realize
that their are some approximations you may be making that you don't yet
realize in paper trading. Still you have to have some idea whether you
techniques even make money. Waste ink in learning, not dollors lost in
the market by starting before you are ready.
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
> Can the little guy win in futures?
Create some definitions for "little guy" and "win", and try it again. Does
your sentence look like this:
"Can a single person with a reasonable amount of true risk capital (money
that can really afford to be lost) become a trader such that they achieve
consistent returns over the years?"
If so, the answer is "yep!" Those folks do exist. Does your sentence look
like this:
"Can somebody take $1,000 (which is money that is really going to hurt to
lose), and turn it into a million in a couple of years? Or, can I at least
make 150% every year and live on it after a few years?"
If that's really what you're asking then *my* answer is either, "Buy $1000
worth of lottery tickets," or "Take the $1K and buy something really cool
and fun with it." You'll lose your money right away, and it'll be a lot
less frustrating.
Futures trading isn't some magical land of secret prosperity; it's just
another thing that you can do with your money. Since it's a high risk
place, you need to have enough money that you can risk very small amounts of
it when you take trades. If you're risking 15-25% of your account on every
trade, you *will* screw yourself one way or another.
> How can the average guy get started?
Don't worry about "getting it" at this point; you *will* screw up, and you
*will* lose, and you *will* get frustrated. I haven't EVER met a single
trader who is successful who just showed up one day and did everything right
at the start. You won't do that either. Anybody who tells you that they
have a special secret way to avoid that pain is selling you a rainbow. You
will still experience that frustration, AND you will have the extra pain of
realizing that you have been giving money to scammers.
Get some books and read about how the markets work and how some people
trade. Then go play and pretend to do it, either on paper or with one of
those fancy fake brokerages, depending on how much money you have and how
much you like to spend on toys. Your pretend experience will NOT "make you
ready", or "teach you to trade," or any of that stuff. What it will do is
get you more comfortable with the mechanics of dealing with the market, and
it will give you an initial benchmark for understanding just how different
system testing is from real money trading.
Then, begin trading. Risk as little as possible on every trade when you
start. You are not trying to get rich tomorrow, you are trying to gain
experience. After you have lost enough that you are mad as hell, stop for a
while and begin to learn and research again. Repeat as necessary.
Your goal is to create a trading system that works well enough for you. You
WILL create your own method -- remember what the rainbows will do for you.
Constructing your trading system properly is evidence that you have gained
some insight into markets and trading.
Oh -- just thought of the right analogy. Luke goes and trains to be a Jedi.
When he's all trained, he makes a light saber of his own. That light saber
is a symbol of the insight and experience he's accumulated, but it's not the
light saber that makes him a Jedi. It's the training and experience.
There is a very good chance that some bug-eyed aliens are selling pre-fab
crap sabers in mall shops somewhere to people who want to be Jedi Knights
but don't have the time, money, inclination or skill to do the training.
They are told that they will be just like the real Jedi, but somehow they
all end up hurting themselves or carving up their furniture, not saving the
galaxy.
Same thing with trading. When you know how to trade, you'll know how to
make a system that works for you. Buying pre-fab rainbow systems from other
people will just take your money away; it's not the system that makes you a
trader -- it's your experience and insight.
The short answer at the end of a very tedious post, then, is this: Your job
is to accumulate experience and insight. The markets will show you the way
by painfully smacking you when you screw up. If you listen, and are
patient, and have the capital to stay alive, AND you have the ability to
figure it out, then you will end up doing way better than most everybody
else. It's a vague answer, but that's only because the real answer is
different for everybody; *you* have to find your own path.
Sticks
--
Troutman, Defender of Sticks http://www.defendercapital.com/
Jonathan Matte, President trou...@defendercapital.com
Defender Capital Management, Inc. (IB, CTA)
There is a significant risk of loss in futures trading.
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
>If you are interested in the hyperbole of this ceement pond hybrid, then
ask
>yourself this question:
>
>"If his random dates are better, why isn't he able to satisfy a growing
>throng of people wanting to trade profitably, instead of jealously slashing
>away at something that is?"
You are back to missing the point again. Jefro's random dates aren't
*better*. The contention is that Fdate accuracy is *NO BETTER* than random
selection. He's not marketing a competing product. Rather, he and others
are pointing out that you are claiming an amazing accuracy that is actually
totally unremarkable and ordinary given how many available dates qualify.