Question for Rick
Alan M
I know you do a lot of work on cycles. I think that you are an empirical
kind or person - if something works you stick to it. That's fair enough. Use
what works.
If there are consistent cycles I would think that there must be a reason. I
would like to know whether you have done any work on what causes the cycles
and, if so, whether you could release the details ?
Rick J Ratchford
How are tide cycles formed and known in advance??
The basic influence that forms these cycles is very simple. Some feel
however that they must delve deep into these influences to help predict
market turns. I do not find this necessary, as the result of these
influences can be mathematically plotted to produce an excellent indication
of future probability.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:_OIr8.30865$uR5....@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
Alan M
"Rick J Ratchford" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:ccYr8.12941$Sa2....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
> Why are the seasons cyclical?
> How are tide cycles formed and known in advance??
Planetary movements and gravitation. Gann referred to a Master Time Factor,
possibly the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. Some believe that the phases of the moon
can affect the markets.
bb
That's right it's actually people buying and selling whatever for what they
think it's worth at that time.
supply and demand, boom and bust, fear greed and hope.
Remember some people paid over $70 (<$14) for amazon stock hoping it would
go up.
Every new generation of traders and investors goes through the same process
of being lulled by the spindoctors and brokers until there is none left,
then the bust.
After the bust everyone says there aint much gain in the market so they buy
real estate and bonds etc until the next generation comes along ready to be
fleeced by the pros.
As for "Master Time Factor" a calendar and a clock does great.
I've also looked at 5 yrs of moon phases (mainly full moon) and really could
find no relation to the markets.
jmo.
bb
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:ECYr8.31525$uR5....@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
Alan M
"bb" <brun...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ZcZr8.5981$vc3....@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
> As far as i know, people move the markets.
If there are predictable cycles either something must influence people or
influence the markets. Weather patterns for instance can influence some
markets. I've read a couple of Gann's books but haven't delved heavily into
the astronomy/astrology aspects.
> That's right it's actually people buying and selling whatever for what
they
> think it's worth at that time.
> supply and demand, boom and bust, fear greed and hope.
> Remember some people paid over $70 (<$14) for amazon stock hoping it would
> go up.
> Every new generation of traders and investors goes through the same
process
> of being lulled by the spindoctors and brokers until there is none left,
> then the bust.
> After the bust everyone says there aint much gain in the market so they
buy
> real estate and bonds etc until the next generation comes along ready to
be
> fleeced by the pros.
> As for "Master Time Factor" a calendar and a clock does great.
> I've also looked at 5 yrs of moon phases (mainly full moon) and really
could
> find no relation to the markets.
> jmo.
Thanks for the info on the moon phases.
Rick J Ratchford
We find all sorts of cycles around all around us. Many have been indentified
as the result of the Earth's rotation around the sun, its being orbited by
the moon, and various other planetary influences.
Whether the markets are directly or indirectly influenced by such plantary
movements is not important to me. Only knowing that they do have some
influence helps me understand why they exist. But to do what I do, there is
no need to be looking up in the sky or calculating when Haley's comet will
cross the sky, etc.
Because all these things can be laid down into mathematical explanations,
that is the level in which I care to dwell. Detrend the cycles and
extrapolate a result from them. I do not deal with Astrology in any way,
simply mathematics.
But that is where cycles in my opinion originate from mostly, from planetary
influences in varying degrees and overlap.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:ECYr8.31525$uR5....@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
Rick J Ratchford
underlying reason. Why is there supply, demand? Are not these things
seasonal? What are seasons if not cycles themselves? Drought and flooding
are extremes, with good weather between. Are they not part of the weather
cycle? Supply is affected by weather, seasons...thus are not seasons based
on planets? Best you consider that. And is supply and demand the only reason
traders buy or sell? Are not the news of weather also an influence? And is
not the economy affected in some way by these weather sensitive products?
Isn't it also true that a trader may trade on mood? Is not mood affected by
weather, or the position of the moon? Best you research that also before you
answer quickly. Consider that the word 'Lunatic' which relates to a mental
state is from the word 'Luna', Latin for Moon.
And what about the SP500 and other indexes? Are you sure traders buy or sell
these because of supply and demand? How about the currencies? You buy and
sell those based on supply and demand? Of course not. You buy them because
you think they are underpriced and sell them when you think they are
overpriced. So they cycle up and down.
I can only laugh when someone makes a comment such as "I've also looked at 5
yrs of moon phases (mainly full moon) and really could find no relation to
the markets." How presumptious for someone to think that no relation exists
because of failing to personally find a connection. And to think that with
all the possible combinations that would need to be tested, someone would
test one possibility and then say, "it cannot be done." Yet, it took Thomas
Edison to fail in his experiments numerous times before finally making the
light bulb work.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"bb" <brun...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ZcZr8.5981$vc3....@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
Bb
I could find any patterns or trend changes and *I* did'nt.
Thus *I* concluded that it does not affect my market.I did not presume, I
researched it myself.
I also kept notes on rainy fridays (~12 mths) to see how many were down days
and also did not find a predictable pattern.
they also believed the earth was flat, the moon emitted light, the earth was
still, the sun moved around the earthed, a full glass fell quicker etc etc
etc etc.
Edison based his methods proven research not fairy tales or religious
fanaticism, and meteorologists can't even predict 3 days weather.
Markets are affected by interest rates, governments, technological advances
and wars more than any planet or moons, just read the history books.
I think your the one taking the simplistic view that everything is justified
by cycles of which you do not know and cannot calculate the frequency nor
the amplitude. Don't forget a broken clock is right twice a day.
bb
"Rick J Ratchford" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:PH8s8.15659$Sa2....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
Rick J Ratchford
And what is more, I can (and have) shown these patterns before a classroom
of traders with all immediately seeing how incredible it is.
And yes, it has excellent forecasting properties.
It is HOW you tackled this problem that caused your failure in seeing it.
And now it is your immediate surrender to failure that will keep you from
ever seeing the marvels of these discoveries.
Such negativity will only continue to cloud your eyes. You've set your own
limitations.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Bb" <br...@bocnet.com.xx> wrote in message
news:3cb1...@news.rivernet.com.au...
rick norman
For example, http://www.primetimes2.com/pages/6-article.html
is an interesting link. It is hard to look at markets without finding
cycles. The problem I have is how does that help me make money.
I can find statistical correlations with various cycles in many markets,
but finding a way to trade them consistently is not easy. The issues
of money management, bet sizing, and exits seem to be key. Entry
techniques are not the problem.
Rick
Jack Hershey
If you watched some of the recent trades here you could have seen two types
of cycles going on concurrently that often trap those who are
unsophisticated.
Once, way back when, the computer first came into the picture and people
went nutso doing stuff with cycles.
I like the radian analysis best as an example. Either using Fourier or
digital filters, you get such a beautiful straight line for choosing the
line spacing. They were coming up with radian velocities to four
significant figures.
Most conventional formations are from the beating of two primary cycle
frequencies. The slow one and the one that shows the ups and downs most
people trade. Think of the faster trading one as a simple lateral cycle
going along where it's normal usual amplitude and frequency are the heart
beat of the commodities traders. Chug chug chug.
Now imagine a slower greater amplitude one. So slow most people forget it's
there.
Rick, the geometric guru would do well to "see" these cause it would make
his work so easy. Take the inverted head and shoulders he bought into on
the top of the first peak after the shoulder (wheat trade) He sat in
negative territory through the whole formation as it took the head dip then
the last shoulder dip. What was going on was that the faster cycle axis was
just bend along the larger slower cycle path. It is so easy to see and
write down.
The next funny one we saw Rick play with was the double tops and bottoms.
This time the multiple frequency of the faster cycle had its axis bent along
a slower larger cycle so that the slow cycle peaks and troughs were exactly
in between the double formations he couldn't ever figure out. He was
looking for tops and bottoms and couldn't figure out how their were two
answers for each one he looked for. Just sketch a slower large cycle and
bend a faster (twice as fast in this case) cycle axis along the slow cycle
curve. This is how he came to screw up the LC example trades as I pointed
out before.
Someday I hope he debriefs himself as he looks at the "after" picture. Not
likely. Learning is complicated. Rich should get out one of his favs and
look on pages 51 through 58 to reread what slip past him yet once again on
the wheat and LC, respectively. The Fourier and digital filtering results
are on page 198.
I'm glad you are asking about cycles. But to ask a geometrician about them
is asking a lot.
All cycles have frequency , amplitude and phase angles. Be sure that the
person you chat with knows at least these three things and how they affect
stuff. The DJ moves along at about 1/3 radian per year as it's angular
velocity.
Rick makes angles from "squares" (really rectangles) whose adjacent sides
have differing ratios that are as complicated as 1, 2, ,3, 4, etc. He is a
long way away from discovering how heads and shoulders and double tops and
bottoms that he buys into trap him the way they do.
These days I am into pointing out where he actually is in the infinite
scheme of things and that he is unconscious of these things he has read and
directed others to use.. I just use the opportunities that come up as they
come up.
Your cycle question fits right in as a means of explaining how these things
go wrong for him because he does apparently see what is there to see as yet.
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:_OIr8.30865$uR5....@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
Bb
Did you trade it and what profits did you make?
Or do you only offer educational information?
> Then go learn from them Bb.
> Come back and tell us how profitable you are after doing so.
> Is that so hard to do?
I did, so you've seen 3 mths of my trading lets see 3 mths of yours? (been
waitng ~5 yrs now)
bb
"Rick J Ratchford" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:zejs8.17712$Sa2....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
Rick J Ratchford
information. So I don't see the advantage of sharing 3 months of my trading
for 3 months of yours dated back in 1998. Guess you'll have to wait another
5 years.
Rick
"Bb" <br...@bocnet.com.xx> wrote in message
news:3cb2...@news.rivernet.com.au...
> I can preach about cloud patterns for hours as well.
> Did you trade it and what profits did you make?
> Or do you only offer educational information?
> I did, so you've seen 3 mths of my trading lets see 3 mths of yours? (been
> waitng ~5 yrs now)
Bb
you typed:
> > Then go learn from them Bb.
> > Come back and tell us how profitable you are after doing so.
> > Is that so hard to do?
i replied:
> I did, so you've seen 3 mths of my trading lets see 3 mths of yours? (been
> waitng ~5 yrs now) ((btw end of 1999))
I posted them at the time when you were boasting about how good you were and
was challenging every body to a trading contest and telling us how you would
"shut them up with your results".
Results you promised time & time again, but have never shown.Remember????
That's why you get all the negative reaction, because you promise but don't
deliver.
bb
"Rick J Ratchford" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:JVts8.4840$dU3....@nwrddc04.gnilink.net...
Alan M
I've interspersed a few more questions below.
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:Q6ms8.10$vd5....@news2.west.cox.net...
> Hi Alan,
>
> If you watched some of the recent trades here you could have seen two
types
> of cycles going on concurrently that often trap those who are
> unsophisticated.
>
> Once, way back when, the computer first came into the picture and people
> went nutso doing stuff with cycles.
>
> I like the radian analysis best as an example. Either using Fourier or
> digital filters, you get such a beautiful straight line for choosing the
> line spacing. They were coming up with radian velocities to four
> significant figures.
Is the straight line the detrending line or does this refer to the spectral
density ? (Sorry if I'm off the mark here. I've been brushing up on
calculus. The reason for doing all of those trigonometry identities starts
becoming a bit more obvious when looking at complex numbers).
> Most conventional formations are from the beating of two primary cycle
> frequencies. The slow one and the one that shows the ups and downs most
> people trade. Think of the faster trading one as a simple lateral cycle
> going along where it's normal usual amplitude and frequency are the heart
> beat of the commodities traders. Chug chug chug.
>
> Now imagine a slower greater amplitude one. So slow most people forget
it's
> there.
Is it always best to use two cycles or does this just emerge from the
Fourier analysis ? Are the cycles based on a fundamental in the market like
harvesting or are they purely empirical ?
Jack Hershey
> Thanks Jack
>
> I've interspersed a few more questions below.
>
> "Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
> news:Q6ms8.10$vd5....@news2.west.cox.net...
> > Hi Alan,
> >
> > If you watched some of the recent trades here you could have seen two
> types
> > of cycles going on concurrently that often trap those who are
> > unsophisticated.
> >
> > Once, way back when, the computer first came into the picture and people
> > went nutso doing stuff with cycles.
> >
> > I like the radian analysis best as an example. Either using Fourier or
> > digital filters, you get such a beautiful straight line for choosing the
> > line spacing. They were coming up with radian velocities to four
> > significant figures.
>
> Is the straight line the detrending line or does this refer to the
spectral
> density ? (Sorry if I'm off the mark here. I've been brushing up on
> calculus. The reason for doing all of those trigonometry identities starts
> becoming a bit more obvious when looking at complex numbers).
Your comment is right on the point: spectral density is correct. JH,
determined that a constant spectral density was in play. It is like spacing
FM staions at the same interval along the spectrum. Each station gets the
same band width so they are spaced apart the same distance. JH used a
constant to do this. He determined the constant by filter analysis across
44 years of performance of the entity. He used the DJIA. Which I find
illuminating because it is a composite in itself.
Thus we can see that the market has an angular velocity for the cyclicality
(this is the term people use, actually) of its movement and volatility. The
angular verlocity is not a continuously variing function but moves in steps
(digitally) from one angular velocity to another. Historically the range (Hi
Lo) of these descrete market "paces" as a set of possibilities is also going
through a shift. As you would expect there is a relationship between the
amplitude and angular velocity; the faster the cycle (angular velocity) the
smaller the amplitude. For a flute the dominent is the fundamental; for an
oboe the fifth dominates because it is a double reed, for example. Their
composite waveforms are in very high contrast. Market pace is determined by
the dominant and it shifts by going from note to note like on a piano
keyboard; several octaves are involved
This is the key to where Rick makes his major major screw ups. As you see
day by day, he has two problems: he has to shift the data back and forth and
he misses several interim points. The data shifting is a function of the
radian measure speeding up and slowing down ,i. e., the market pace changes
and he has no detection system for this. Missing data points is inherent in
the method Rick uses. For Elliot wave analysis, on the other hand, you can
pick up points (by adding another higher frequency layer) but for
geometrically constrained analysis you are screwed from the get go as he
shows us. It is extremely difficult to use geometrically designed analysis
because of the hardened factor of where you begin each pass. If you are
nible you throw out wrong base points if they are not correct. If you are
persistent and insistent in your intial action then you just keep
qualifiying the subsequent stuff you get.
Using the cyclicality of markets with periodic functions, or complex power
series turns out to be very comprehensive and totally adjustable. As The
Alternative unfolds you will see how each and very opportunity is taken to
use knowledge gleaned over time to optimize performance.
I began with the market in 1957. It is truly amazing to have had such an
avocation since late in college. I have seen Magee go through 4 editions
and the advent of some many shifts in appications to investing. As an
Electrical Engineer and Phyicist for my early training. I cottoned to using
maths in making money in the markets. Therefore, I have followed TA for
quite a while. I monitor about a dozen methods of investing and deal with
how to advance each as a way to keep alert. A month or so ago I have begun
to do Rick's since he killfiled me (as a humorous milestone). This post
adds some depth to the analysis and I am trading LC intraday this week as
well.
> > Most conventional formations are from the beating of two primary cycle
> > frequencies. The slow one and the one that shows the ups and downs most
> > people trade. Think of the faster trading one as a simple lateral cycle
> > going along where it's normal usual amplitude and frequency are the
heart
> > beat of the commodities traders. Chug chug chug.
> >
> > Now imagine a slower greater amplitude one. So slow most people forget
> it's
> > there.
>
> Is it always best to use two cycles or does this just emerge from the
> Fourier analysis ? Are the cycles based on a fundamental in the market
like
> harvesting or are they purely empirical ?
Consider several cycles but the slow cycle is your starting point and the
second level is the "natural" cycle most people trade on. The natural cycle
is the one the formations relate to. what you will see that is the most
powerful in terms of cycles is to use charts of verying duration bars. My
sequence of bar duation is 1, 5, 30, daily, weekly, quarterly, and annually.
Seven levels roughly multiples of five apart. This is like looking deeper
and deeper into the cycles. I choose a fractal as the trading one according
to its money making capability and this is determined by market pace. It is
told to you by the market.
I "anticipate" on the next faster fractal. Thus I have a "pair" of charts.
I am trading the LC on the 5 min as you can see because I want to
demonstrate the use of indicators this week on intraday trading. I did
about 2.00 units/day on the daily level the last time out with Rick. this
time I want to see the level of money velocity on the intraday.
If you do periodic functions, then you need indicators that are harmonious
with the periodicity or cyclicality. you already see the nature of
derivatives of periodic functions--they them selves are periodic.
I feel that there is another major way to strengthen all of this. That is
by adding periodic other market variables. There are two more very powerful
ones: volume and the market orientation (accumulation and distribution.)
The extent and relations are not studied on the same level as the price.
Such short shrift by others is where those who do study all three get their
edge. Ido use these. So far Rick has not been showing us any use of them.
Gann does though.
If we have two periodic function variable that apply to the same market,
then we can use a phase angle relationship. One will lead the other; no
other possibility. If they exhibit multiple (coefficient) connection, then
we can use both the radian velocity multiple and the phase angle (it's
multiple is the same coeficient) offest as well. it utrns out that all
three variables work out this way. This is a terrifically powerful set of
variables to have available.
I do and all of this will become apparent after a while.
At least at this point we know why Rick's timing doesn't work and why he
misses a lot of points.
Rick J Ratchford
Do you have a picture of me above your fireplace? Just wondering, as you
seem to be wearing out the R key on your keyboard.
Has it occurred to you Jack that what you are doing is nothing more than
daytrading? This entering and exiting more than once within a single day?
Has it also occurred to you that I am not participating in daytrades?
So while you are content to buy/sell/buy each and every day with your ziggy
line entry/exit method, reversing here and reversing there, I prefer to go
play Golf or sit outside of Starbucks and watch the hot air balloons once my
trade has been initiated. In otherwords, I would not be content to stare at
your ziggly lines all day, as you appear glued to do.
So what in the world do you think you are comparing to? Rick will miss this,
miss that? Who cares Jack? As long as when I do decide to enter a trade I
can extra profits from it, so what if it does not meet your criteria of
'corporate whipsawing' and 'eternally in the trade' mentality.
Do you think you can give it a rest? Why don't you just show everyone your
own method and having to refer to others to lift yourself up? Are you that
insecure with your approach that instead of just posting your trades and
method here you have to use someone else to bolster you? How sad you are.
Get a life Jack.
Rick
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:iyEs8.803$ia.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Jack Hershey
> Do you have a picture of me above your fireplace? Just wondering, as you
> seem to be wearing out the R key on your keyboard.
I work as a lawyer would. You are disadvantaging yourself with these
comments.
>
> Has it occurred to you Jack that what you are doing is nothing more than
> daytrading? This entering and exiting more than once within a single day?
> Has it also occurred to you that I am not participating in daytrades?
Actually, Rick there are two points being made, vis a vis the focus you now
bring up. by looking at were the trend signals emminate from, every person
does have a better chance of dealing with the beginning and end of trends.
secondly, you choose where you want to trade and, for me, the market makes
that choice by telling me the pace and the fractal to trade on.
Today was a terrific one for seeing an intermediate term centering occur.
Those that follow my trades can see the chart for tomorrows entry. You will
be entering tomorrow as well.
> So while you are content to buy/sell/buy each and every day with your
ziggy
> line entry/exit method, reversing here and reversing there, I prefer to go
> play Golf or sit outside of Starbucks and watch the hot air balloons once
my
> trade has been initiated. In otherwords, I would not be content to stare
at
> your ziggly lines all day, as you appear glued to do.
As you know I have many accounts to track as i trade equities as well. I
exited ELNT this am on two sets of fills whose respective group averages
were 45.211 and 45.161. The sets went through around 9:45 T& S time.
One two of my other screens I am editing two videos: one for recruiting 250
agency leaders and the other is a teaser for introducing people to the
life-cycle hypothesis of Nobel Prize winner Franco Modigliani (MIT). We
use this for maximizing life styles of the client group we serve. Uniquely
our agent have attained production that averages 12 times the top national
regular producers. We have sucessfully introduced an alternative to the
traditional financial planning econometric model. I am definitely glued to
a bank of computers. My golf handicap is 12 and I do not balloon; I use a
GROB 109 when I am airborne (the gliderport gives me free tows for some
reason).
>
> So what in the world do you think you are comparing to? Rick will miss
this,
> miss that? Who cares Jack? As long as when I do decide to enter a trade I
> can extra profits from it, so what if it does not meet your criteria of
> 'corporate whipsawing' and 'eternally in the trade' mentality.
You are going to learn alot about my mentality. Why would I make any
comparisons with a method I do not know. Your trading here circumscribes
your methodology. Think of what I am doing as looking at everything that is
showing and gradually and continually eroding away it's lesser valued
components. I am providing hard well founded reasons for what is happening
and what the causal factors are. each time you pass on rebutting me on an
equal or higher level, I use what I have established, thusly, for the next
level of treament that I am going to provide. If you express feeling like
Rodney Dangerfield and others take you up on it, then thats where it is for
you.
>
> Do you think you can give it a rest? Why don't you just show everyone your
> own method and having to refer to others to lift yourself up? Are you that
> insecure with your approach that instead of just posting your trades and
> method here you have to use someone else to bolster you? How sad you are.
No thank you. I'm giving it a rest only in the sense that I post The
Alternative details elsewhere. Here I deal with futures concepts and TA.
You notice that I use your references (The original authorities you say you
build upon) and I use these to correct specific examples of difficulties you
have that I do not want your members to endure any longer than necessary.
By posting on the proper fractal; elsewhere, others get to see money being
made daily in the market place with the commodites you are currently
examining for the M. I. F.
At this point I am going to Ratchet my efforts up another notch or two.
Alan Yasutovich
Thanks
Alan
Alan M
As Rick would say "Live and let live". I think that both yourself and Rick
have something to offer the group. I almost hung on to what you were saying
but I got a bit lost when you mentioned "multiple (coefficient) connection".
Could you explain this ?
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:iyEs8.803$ia.1...@news2.west.cox.net...