Jack, explain 'Stop Offset'
Fdate Trader
the basis for this, or is it simply 'eyeballing'?
:)
Rick
Jack Hershey
with the intro of the technique.
About 10,000 people do three ring binders on this stuff (as of four years
ago).
I' m not a pro at googling as yet. Your best text and software references on
this are:
MIF
MIT
MIS
Clearstation.com
Ragingbull
Equis corp (US and Australia)
LINUX design crew (ICQ based)
Schwabb Denver Tech support Streetsmart level 5
And Worden Bros TC2000 ver 3.0 prior to Y2K.
Excel
Access
and several individual software programs
"Fdate Trader" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:a%RB8.140$Sh....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
Fdate Trader
understand the basics of your methods? Reading Don Cameron's site, where you
have been posting for a long time, many there are still adding sheet after
sheet to their 3-ring binder and continue to be students. When will they get
to be traders and make some money following your work?
That confuses me greatly, since the method I've developed was designed to
get a trader up and running in a short-period of time. This be the method
you've been criticizing of course.
And now I ask a very simple question and get THIS for an answer? If you had
asked me, I would have answered you directly as I've always done.
Oh well.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:i9VB8.36761$9c5.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Jack Hershey
"Fdate Trader" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
news:2CVB8.5628$EY1....@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
> I don't get it Jack. You're saying it takes 4 years or more to start to
> understand the basics of your methods? Reading Don Cameron's site, where
you
> have been posting for a long time, many there are still adding sheet after
> sheet to their 3-ring binder and continue to be students. When will they
get
> to be traders and make some money following your work?
***** They are and have been since before it was formalized.
The first people who used some of my stuff and made money did it in 1958.
One of that group became a millionaire before me as a matter of fact. And we
registered with the SEC at the same time and participated with the same BOD.
>
> That confuses me greatly, since the method I've developed was designed to
> get a trader up and running in a short-period of time. This be the method
> you've been criticizing of course.
******Well think of me as the clean up crew from now on. I am fixing the
mess you have created. I am focused on an alternative for you. So far I am
only up to 60% on your method as you say and I don't get to look at the
proprietory stuff.
The predicting part of your stuff is unnesserary so I am not going to get
good at that. the Stops stuff is part of The Alternative as protection only
and is not part of trading. Stops limit money velocity seriously and are
not intended for making money at all. you exit on stops it looks like.
There is a chance your members do this too. This has to be fixed ASAP.
>
> And now I ask a very simple question and get THIS for an answer? If you
had
> asked me, I would have answered you directly as I've always done.
***** Well I was keeping with the temper of your posts. Looks like we are
beginning the role reversal phase here in several ways. Your questions are
all important. Giving answers to questions is not nearly as difficult as
formulating a good question. I know I haven't been asking you questions. I
may make observations and even then they are construed as judgements.
I will google up some stuff for you. I have a standing invite over in
silicon canyon. A new version of software is going to have some stuff in it
that I have given away possibly. It was first on here somewhere. There are
some invitation only groups too. I'll dig around.
I did some stuff on block trading drawdowns a while back and I set up a
maths filter for isolating out programmed trading as part of a prorcess to
eliminating such influence in "anticipation".
I'll focus on the "away" stuff first since you are not doing that as yet.
Drawdown analysis is a little beyond the call for you at this point.
I've been thinking about all those direct answers you give to people's
questions. you jump all over the place here so it must be hard for you to
do that routinely.
>
> Oh well.
I think I'll pick up the pace a little.
Fdate Trader
<snip lots of useless rhetoric>
> you exit on stops it looks like.
> There is a chance your members do this too. This has to be fixed ASAP.
<more snipping. focus on comment above.>
Shame on you Jack Hershey. Just think of all those lost souls who have
believed in you all this time, to see you say what you just did.
To suggest that one does not use a stop-loss is inviting traders to ruin.
Even WD Gann, who most know to be more a trader/analyst than you can ever
hope to be, recommended using stop-loss orders.
I certainly hope my members are using stop-loss orders. I highly recommend
it for the majority of situations. And you bet I get out MOST times with
stops. Let the market tell me it is time to get out.
And this is why I am still trading after all these years.
Alan M
>
> "Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
> news:SCXB8.37017$9c5.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
>
> <snip lots of useless rhetoric>
>
> > you exit on stops it looks like.
> > There is a chance your members do this too. This has to be fixed ASAP.
>
> <more snipping. focus on comment above.>
>
> Shame on you Jack Hershey. Just think of all those lost souls who have
> believed in you all this time, to see you say what you just did.
>
> To suggest that one does not use a stop-loss is inviting traders to ruin.
> Even WD Gann, who most know to be more a trader/analyst than you can ever
> hope to be, recommended using stop-loss orders.
>
> I certainly hope my members are using stop-loss orders. I highly recommend
> it for the majority of situations. And you bet I get out MOST times with
> stops. Let the market tell me it is time to get out.
>
> And this is why I am still trading after all these years.
>
I think you misread it Rick. As I understand, Jack's method uses a Stop-Loss
but only for protection. It isn't used as an exiting mechanism. For exiting,
a position would be closed before the Stop-Loss was triggered.
Jack Hershey
I know Rick doe not follow my points often.
Protection is often immediate on bracket entries as the stop not filled sets
up as trailing stop.
He was asking me about offset stops today and as you say he still doesn't
see that they are always in place. He actually started this thread on that
note.
In the simplest form of trading a channel with an offset stop; the strategy
is to follow sequence lists of indicator signals to take you out on the
"away" extreme side of the channel. most often with a reversal that zips
you across to the other "breakout" side of the channel and quickly into more
profitable territory.
Even exits when congestion and consolidation is forming can be made well
before protective stops.
It is insane to set stops as exits using a tick beyond the prior daily bar
and leave it sit until the market reverses and wipes out a whole bar of
movement into the trend you were in.
Daily the market has periods of activity and then slow times. a quick check
at 11:15 am, or 13:30 for pm and near close at 4:pm plus for commodities on
full days is a good idea. For late starter and early closers look at the
volume scallops and get a quote when scallop is picking up.
Rick is so dependent upon prior bars, et al he gets trapped in blocking
drawdowns etc. Why not use an analysis to set up strategies to extend trend
profits.
Stops are required. I did word for word replacements to get him straight
and even that didn't work.
Thanks for your post.
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:i8YB8.5479$b5.1...@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
Fdate Trader
the market has determined it is time to exit. Or perhaps he is using a
'mental stop', in which he sees a break below some line or another and calls
in his exit. This is another form of 'stop-loss', whether placed or mental
makes no difference.
So Jack needs to be clear on that.
Thanks.
Rick
"Alan M" <alan...@nospam.bigpond.com> wrote in message
news:i8YB8.5479$b5.1...@newsfeeds.bigpond.com...
>
Fdate Trader
> It is insane to set stops as exits using a tick beyond the prior daily bar
> and leave it sit until the market reverses and wipes out a whole bar of
> movement into the trend you were in.
It is insane Jack that I spend 85% of the time correcting your
misunderstandings and misinterpretations.
We do not leave stops beyond the prior daily bar and leave it sit until the
market reverses. You make this up as you go? No wonder your mind is so
screwed up, you're creating a fantasy method and pasting my name on it. Wake
up man.
Our stops are ADJUSTED each day as price continues to move deeper into
profit. You should know this, because I explained it clearly for you just
recently.
If we enter a trade today long, we use yesterday's low minus a tick for the
INITIAL stop-loss. This gets you out if things go wrong. You do NOT keep it
there for the duration.
craig wisper
> I think you misread it Rick. As I understand, Jack's method uses a
Stop-Loss
> but only for protection. It isn't used as an exiting mechanism. For
exiting,
> a position would be closed before the Stop-Loss was triggered.
I don't think he 'misread it', I think he is just being 'intellectually
dishonest'.
Jack Hershey
> We do not leave stops beyond the prior daily bar and leave it sit until
the
like daily after you have EOD data bar}
> Our stops are ADJUSTED each day as price continues to move deeper into
> profit. {my note: it looks like you adjust it daily after the market
closes}
> If we enter a trade today long, we use yesterday's low minus a tick for
the
> INITIAL stop-loss. .{my note: it looks like you leave it unadjusted for
the day}
You then go play tennis.
You adjust the next day
You adjust the next day.
Using EOD data you adjust the stop daily.
It is set utside the end of the bar by one tick.
These daily adjustments cost you a day when the market reverses and you find
out after you come back from tennis or in cases where people work from work.
This is when a new bar appears EOD. The new bar is beyond your stop. You
are out. The bar that took you out retraced the prior bar you used to set
your stop.
You make adjustments daily but not during trading because you do not
monitor. You use EOD data and ticks to offset the prior bar.
Your stops are always outside the last bar that you have seen while you are
still in the trade.
Always during the last day you are in the trend, that is the day you exit on
a stop, the market retraces that prior bar as the market turns against you.
It then comes back to your stop and you are exited.
The net effect is this. You loose the movement with the trend of the prior
day of your exit when you go out on the stop that you set a tick away from
the prior bar.
QED.
I suggest that you use an alarm to let you know when the reversal starts.
Buy a market portable and choose some indicators. Use the indicator to tell
you when during the day the commodity goes to the extreme. this is the time
to think about the fact that end of trend effects may be ensuing.
When trends are examined fully they are seen to have three parts two ends
and a middle.
You entry eliminates the first part that lies in the prior channel. tyou
enter the middle which you refer to as early. Everyone who has reversed did
it in the prior channel pulling down the last extreme part of the prior
trend profit. During the last part of a trend the price reverses and
retraces the trend channel then breaks out of the channel where your stop is
sitting. You thus loose the profits on this last portion of the trend. These
are the two major places where you give up a lot of money velocity. your
trades start late and end late and squeese the middle to the smallest values
QED
We have a decoder ring that turns from green to red and has a transmission
radius that is 4,000 miles in the dark or daylight. You can use it on clay,
grass or hard courts. Seeing eye dogs luv to watch and lick it and bark
when the color changes.
Jack Hershey
> Then what Jack is doing is not letting his profits run. He is exiting
before
> the market has determined it is time to exit. Or perhaps he is using a
> 'mental stop', in which he sees a break below some line or another and
calls
> in his exit. This is another form of 'stop-loss', whether placed or mental
> makes no difference.
>
> So Jack needs to be clear on that.
>
> Thanks.
> Rick
>
>
profits run. The second sentence means the word "early". The third sentence
is one having a bias. I am, on the other hand neutral biased. Ricks shows a
"long bias". the next sentence says "stop loss"
This is clear. Now lets go to work and make some money.
Graduate upward in skills with me here.
Rick sets a flight of stairs and his stair trail by one day and he does not
make the last step in any trends because he trades on stops. The stairs go
both ways up and down
I am the inclinded plane (on the right) type who pounds a nail in the plane
everytime I can pick up my phone hammer and nail another one in. I have a
money velocity that will not stop. I call with a set periodicity and I
annote my charts with that periodicity. My log has the time written in
advance. I am anal.
The trend precedes these ever increasing stops. I have a second inclinded
plane (on the left) as well and I am judging whether the trend is up there
with the pedal to the metal or not. I also have a MACD running and it
better be "away" from neutral. When it heads for neutral I start driving
more tighter nails with my phone hammer. I chart the volume as well, I
judge the maturity of the trend with volume. As any extreme of range is
being attained, I judge how much more volume is required to push it. It is a
steam guage. When the fuel producing the steam poops out (large transient in
volume) my C&R's turn to reversals contract wise. MACD is crashing and it
is not going to even think about crossing neutal any less than at the
steepest angle and go zooming into outer space in the opposite direction.
I have tons of work to do too. Redoing the inclined planes; setting the
trailing offset stop pace. And doing a whole new trend starting right then
and there.
If the train is just coming (easing) into the station (consolidation on the
support or resistance levels) I exit on the extreme left side of the
channel (which Rich would percieve at this point as early (time, not price
is his thingy)) as the price begins to move into the chanel interior. MACD
has given me two maxes and a crossover and is headed well on it way to
approach neutral asmptotically. I relax in the station and pick up the game
again when the whistles start blowing.
Trading is dynamic and the money velocity is high. There is no reason to
predict and bet on a prediction. Any one can do the deed too. Come home at
night and take the measure. you can see on the trading fractal the message.
If you move your stops during thecday as you should you will know when you
C&R what is going on by your partner's chat with you. people coat so I know
how my partner at the other end of the phone wants to be on my team .
server not recognized
P
server not recognized
I've realised that FDicks whole approach to teaching is a la the tub bashing
bible class of the early to late 60's.
The berating, one view only, excommunication and no dissention. With this
type of indoctrination its no wonder he uses the same style now he's older.
Since I understand this it makes him all the more transparent (transperant
in FDickian). Its not ego, its the surety of faith in the face of anything
contrary - self righteousness.
Some rebel against that type of upbringing but others like FDick seem to
embrace it and perpetuate it when finally they get "control". A sort or
reversion to type thing.
Sad. But he's so cocooned in it now he'll drown first rather than grab a
hand.
P
Fdate Trader
Trade opportunities exit in Hogs and Cocoa. I see a bracket situation for
Hogs. Sell if price breaks below today's low, buy if price breaks below
above today's high.
Inner resistance/support zones are:
53.70 upper side within today's range.
52.75 lower side within today's range.
If price moves below 52.75, probability is extremely high that it will
continue to do so moving below the low of 52.30, where a sell can then be
initiated. If this occurs and the upper side of 53.70 has not been violated,
a stop-loss can be placed just above this value or the high of today, your
choice.
If price moves above 53.70, probability is extremely high that it will
continue to do so moving above the high of 54.10, where a buy can then be
initiated. If this occurs and the lower side of 52.75 has not been violated,
a stop-loss can be placed just below this value or the low of today, also
your choice.
As for Cocoa, this is a one-way trip. High of today is 1474. A buy just
above this high has a high probability of moving even deeper into profit
territory. Initial stop-loss would be placed below today's low. This trade
is void if the low of today is exceeded first.
And that is how I see these two markets.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
Precision Trading Membership
http://fdates.com
==============================
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. TRADING IS
RISKY AND YOU CAN LOSE MONEY. Trade at your own risk.
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:3B0C8.38395$9c5.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Fdate Trader
> Rick avers:
> > We do not leave stops beyond the prior daily bar and leave it sit until
the market reverses.
{my note: this means you adjust it at frequent intervals like daily after
you have EOD data bar}
***At the end of each day, we evaluate, calculate and adjust if necessary.
Obviously is price hasn't moved much, stops won't either. If price has made
a major move, our stops are likely to be more aggressive.
> > Our stops are ADJUSTED each day as price continues to move deeper into
> > profit.
{my note: it looks like you adjust it daily after the market closes}
*** We make the decision after the market closes. We place the order prior
to the next day's open.
> > If we enter a trade today long, we use yesterday's low minus a tick for
the INITIAL stop-loss. .
{my note: it looks like you leave it unadjusted for the day}
The day of entry it is left unadjusted. After the close, we evaluate what
the market has done and act accordingly.
> You then go play tennis.
Golf. Race my Mustang. Have breakfast with my wife. Ride my motorcycle
through the beatiful hills and vineyards surrounding my home. Usually,
however, I spend a good amount of time at my desk programming, analyzing
charts, returning email, posting here, there, everywhere, whatever. Life is
good.
> You adjust the next day
If not watching during the day, yes. Plan after the close. Place order
before the open next day.
> You adjust the next day.
I just said that.
> Using EOD data you adjust the stop daily.
Yes.
> It is set utside the end of the bar by one tick.
No. Only the day of entry unless the range is too large, then a secondary
stop location may be used if filled. We do not adjust under the end of each
day's bar. That is not correct.
> These daily adjustments cost you a day when the market reverses and you
find
> out after you come back from tennis or in cases where people work from
work.
They cost me the distance between my stop and the end of the move. You
cannot expect to get the whole move. If you claim to do so, I would say you
lie. What you consider a day's loss may actually be less than the loss your
method incurs.
> This is when a new bar appears EOD. The new bar is beyond your stop. You
> are out.
What do you think a stop is for Jack? If price moves against you a
pre-determined amount, you want out. A fool tries to get it all, and a lier
says he does.
> The bar that took you out retraced the prior bar you used to set your
stop.
Incorrect again. We do not use each price bar's extreme for our stop. Only
the initial day of entry do we use that day's extreme. Following that day,
our stop is adjusted depending on the market move.
> You make adjustments daily but not during trading because you do not
> monitor. You use EOD data and ticks to offset the prior bar.
Each day is noted, and adjustments made if necessary. However, again we do
not use the prior day's price bar for our stop location.
> Your stops are always outside the last bar that you have seen while you
are
> still in the trade.
Incorrect. Wrong. In error. You are not paying attention.
> Always during the last day you are in the trend, that is the day you exit
on
> a stop, the market retraces that prior bar as the market turns against
you.
> It then comes back to your stop and you are exited.
Incorrect.
>
> The net effect is this. You loose the movement with the trend of the
prior
> day of your exit when you go out on the stop that you set a tick away from
> the prior bar.
> QED.
Incorrect. Our stops will often sustain a mild correction, which normally
would exceed a prior day's extreme. As long as it does not exceed our
calculated resistance zone by much we maintain the trade. We can often
withstand several corrections and stay with the trade. You should know this,
considering the one Live Cattle trade you like to harp on had a stop-loss
below at least two prior bars if I recall. A support line was used as the
stop-loss reference point, precalculated in advance of the day's open.
> I suggest that you use an alarm to let you know when the reversal starts.
A good trader must accept reversals within the trend itself. Minor
corrections need not be exited. You use the stop-loss to avoid corrections
beyond the minor ones so that you do not give back all your accumulated
profits.
> Buy a market portable and choose some indicators. Use the indicator to
tell
> you when during the day the commodity goes to the extreme. this is the
time
> to think about the fact that end of trend effects may be ensuing.
You are looking too short-term. This will get you out of some good trades
that have much more left in them. What you are doing is purely daytrading
and nothing more. Not everyone can appreciate daytrading even if they can
watch the markets all day. Many, like myself, prefer to stay in a trade a
few days as much as possible.
> When trends are examined fully they are seen to have three parts two ends
> and a middle. You entry eliminates the first part that lies in the prior
channel. tyou
> enter the middle which you refer to as early.
This is not correct and a bad assumption on your part. Usually our entry is
but a price bar range from the very top or bottom of a new weekly trend.
This happens on many 1st corrections. When you think correction, you are
thinking a wave 2 correction. I'm more interested in the one day correction
that falls within a cycle date window following a new weekly high or low.
Many times it will occur within 3-5 days and still be in the same price
neighborhood, especially if it is a bottom forming.
> Everyone who has reversed did it in the prior channel pulling down the
last extreme part of the prior
> trend profit. During the last part of a trend the price reverses and
> retraces the trend channel then breaks out of the channel where your stop
is
> sitting.
If you are daytrading, your trend is but noise to someone who uses weekly/da
ily time periods. You are after the intraday wiggles. This is but white
noise. What happens intraday can hardly be used to confirm a new legitimate
trend.
> You thus loose the profits on this last portion of the trend.
Much has been written on trying to get the very last drop of any trend move,
and much is correct in this regard. You do not need to get the whole move,
and those who say they do are telling big stories.
> These are the two major places where you give up a lot of money velocity.
your
> trades start late and end late and squeese the middle to the smallest
values
Our trades rarely are late. And they end when price corrects beyond our
calculated stop point. The Wheat trade was a good example. I exited 1 tick
off the very high, while you whipsawed in and out while the market moved
against you. You kept thinking it would go higher, and I just sat back and
laughed at our ridiculous efforts for trying to capture a half-cent profit.
> QED
> We have a decoder ring that turns from green to red and has a transmission
> radius that is 4,000 miles in the dark or daylight. You can use it on
clay,
> grass or hard courts. Seeing eye dogs luv to watch and lick it and bark
> when the color changes.
And they like to lick your wounds too, I'm sure.
Jim Cochrane
Jack Hershey <jhers...@cox.net> wrote:
>
>"Fdate Trader" <pro...@fd.at.es.com> wrote in message
>news:unZB8.6939$EY1....@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
>> Then what Jack is doing is not letting his profits run. He is exiting
>before
>>
>Rick is using a negative NLP. When you read fist sentence you are seeing my
>profits run. The second sentence means the word "early". The third sentence
>is one having a bias. I am, on the other hand neutral biased. Ricks shows a
>"long bias". the next sentence says "stop loss"
Jack - Is this a reasonable short summary of the goals your method?:
Find a tradable that's likely to go into a strong up or down trend and, if
it does, enter as soon as possible. Stay in the trade only as long as the
trend is strong. If the trend starts to weaken - the magnitude of the slope
decreases - exit (since a weak trend lowers the rate at which you are
making money) and make this money available for the next tradable about
to go into a strong trend.
--
Jim Cochrane
j...@dimensional.com
[When responding by email, include the term non-spam in the subject line to
get through my spam filter.]
Jack Hershey
"Jim Cochrane" <j...@dimensional.com> wrote in message news:abacs0
> Jack - Is this a reasonable short summary of the goals your method?:
>
> Find a tradable that's likely to go into a strong up or down trend and, if
> it does, enter as soon as possible. Stay in the trade only as long as the
> trend is strong. If the trend starts to weaken - the magnitude of the
slope
> decreases - exit (since a weak trend lowers the rate at which you are
> making money) and make this money available for the next tradable about
> to go into a strong trend.
This is a good overview. Strong trends are alot more consistent. having
money to mount next trade is alot more important than hanging in there on no
momentum; it is easy for a reversal then and holding until a stop is hit
gives back so much potentially earned profits.
bb
bb
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:whXD8.78147$9c5.2...@news2.west.cox.net...