Rick, you have a daily bean top call?
Timairity
top in beans:
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=FuEW8.4700%24AL6.2855%40nwrddc02.gnil
ink.net&rnum=1
"I've reevaluated (analyzed) the Soybean charts and have come to the
conclusion that a weekly top is likely to form this week, with an error not
to exceed 5 trading days from this week. Don't let the 5 days get to you, as
I'm talking WEEKLY and not DAILY swing top here. 5 days is insignificant in
terms of the weekly time frame of things."
Monthly bean top call - On July 1 Rick noted his call for a monthly top was
incorrect, at
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=I02U8.28944%24ry2.1559%40nwrddc02.gni
link.net&rnum=5
"With one week left in the Month of June, it didn't appear likely that the
high of June formed during the first week of June would be taken out.
And with that assumption, I was certainly incorrect. Soybeans made a major
jump the last week of June.
And it continued again this week.
So my original expectation about a major Soybean correction for the month of
June as the monthly top was incorrect and now invalid."
============================
Newbies beware.
Tim
"As for a 'duh' moment, that itself is a trick question. I will have to
admit, I cannot answer that one. <g>" Rick Ratchford 6/21/02
"Fdates does not mean you will be profitable." R R 9/2/01
bb
bb
"Timairity" <tima...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20020722035239...@mb-fc.aol.com...
Profit
Weekly cycle date indicates a weekly swing top (not necessarily a major top
or long-term top, but a weekly swing top.)
Weekly turn window not to exceed 5 days following (i.e. 7/19) for a weekly
swing to start forming.
Meanwhile, looking at Timairity's forecast that he would finally learn how
to trade by June 2002 flip-flopped.
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=FuEW8.4700%24AL6.2855%40nwrddc02.gnile
Maybe you can borrow some more money from Mom to give it another go. <g>
"Timairity" <tima...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20020722035239...@mb-fc.aol.com...
Timairity
>The word twister strikes again.
You had a reversal-reversal!!
>
>Weekly cycle date indicates a weekly swing top (not necessarily a major top
>or long-term top, but a weekly swing top.)
>
>Weekly turn window not to exceed 5 days following (i.e. 7/19) for a weekly
>swing to start forming.
>
Hey call a top enought times and you might get one. BB's right, it was a
dynamic forecas - it keeps changing..
>Meanwhile, looking at Timairity's forecast that he would finally learn how
>to trade by June 2002 flip-flopped.
>http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=FuEW8.4700%24AL6.2855%40nwrddc02.gnile
>
Hey dope, the link does not work, much like your stuff. Perhaps you meant one
of these:
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=20020314212711.14773.00002144%40mb-ba
.aol.com&rnum=2
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=20020610000811.22563.00000287%40mb-cu
.aol.com&rnum=1
>Maybe you can borrow some more money from Mom to give it another go. <g>
>
Mom's getting an extra special Xmas gift this year, thanks to those who
followed your calls for a top. Dope.
Tim
Jack Hershey
swing tops.
weekly swing tops.
major top.
long-term top.
Windows for each and for ones not mention for beans.
Other tops??
intraday tops
daily top
fdate top
short term top
intermediate term top
string top
Stay tuned.
Todays DJ cash was a bottom on very low daily volume. Look at Volume and
MACD (5, 13 ,6) for all fractals starting with daily going to 60 min (for
wispy), 30 min 15 min and 5 and 1 min. Retrace fractals to the daily; think
very hard about the fact that the MACD is as low as 11SEP vicinity. Hard to
imagine a spike down on the DJ cash, but it looks like it is possible after
all.
Low volume says that mutual funds are being covered a lot more easily this
week.
This beans stuff Rick has laid on the group just about beats all the stuff
he has laid on here for the past 6 months.
Jack Hershey
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:%XZ_8.15416$Fq6.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Dale Legan
to lazy to make a web page.
And, I'm basically to lazy. But, what the hell. Here it is
http://home.houston.rr.com/cyclesurfer/Soybeans.htm
I have the next "top" around July 29th. Swing Top.
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:m_Z_8.15417$Fq6.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Jack Hershey
is hit during the day. If it is hit, then price will move powerfully from
that point on. Up until the 61% the price will not be in any momentum type
push
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:%XZ_8.15416$Fq6.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Dale Legan
"As you know, The Cycle Summation Index I posted last week called for
slightly up first part of the week then down.
I strongly believe the high was made today with the next low comming in
7/19. Prices have stayed within the models parameters nicely so far."
Damn that was wrong.!! I find the best use for these cycle turning dates is
to just call them that and not ascribe a top or bottom to them.
I.E. They invert. Then just use the existing market structure to come up
with trades based on the swings.
I think I do much better when I meditate and look into my crystal ball. And
then read the tea leaves.
~ can you tell it is a full moon or what?
Dale
"Dale Legan" <Dale...@houston.rr.com> wrote in message
news:zn__8.180470$q53.4...@twister.austin.rr.com...
thinktank
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:Wt__8.15431$Fq6.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
Profit
the purpose of cycle turns and how to use them.
I could turn blue trying to help Timairity or his brother Robert understand
the difference between 'expecting' a cycle turn and actually trading one.
Some get it, some don't want to get it and are happy at knowing as less as
possible (plausible deniability?).
But since I am in the business of educating those who do want to learn, here
is a quick, minor course.
Cycle dates, when properly calculated, help identify time periods where
market swings are most likely to occur. Not to be used alone, but in
conjunction with certain easy to identify patterns.
There is no purpose in picking the very top in Soybeans if you are looking
to trade, as I am. You calculate where a weekly cycle top is likely to
occur, and then sit back and see if it starts to form the simple pattern you
need to go the next step with.
So suppose a new weekly high forms within the weekly cycle date window and
price drops off. But it rallies again into a time period marked by a daily
cycle date. While within this daily time window, if the rally high is not
higher than the new weekly high, you have a low risk opportunity to short
this market if you place your sell stop below the low of the price bar
inside the daily cycle time window. You can keep doing this while still in
this window and the weekly high is still there (not exceeded by the rally
back up). If you are filled short, you can see that a daily swing top, lower
than the weekly high, has formed within the cycle date time window
increasing the odds that your sell was a good decision. From there you
manage the trade moving your stop-loss down each day or so.
Too many inexperienced traders, like Timarity and his brothers, have long
given up trying to make trading work for them. So what is left for them to
do but to be as obnoxious as they can be by piggy-backing on every serious
post made on the subject.
As for Jack, he just wants some love. Somebody give him a puppy.
cheers
Rick
"Dale Legan" <Dale...@houston.rr.com> wrote in message
news:Du__8.180474$q53.4...@twister.austin.rr.com...
Dale Legan
multi-variable events confuse them.
They wan't a "Prophet" and a person able to call exact highs and lows rather
than being in a time window and having say a sell stop
at a price that confirms the cycle action.
At least that is my assumption.
Happy Trading.
Dale
"Profit" <nos...@thank.you> wrote in message
news:tq%_8.22011$927....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
Jack Hershey
"thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3d3c7741$0$21170$91ce...@newsreader02.highway.telekom.at...
Profit
Just go to my website and click on the EMAIL link.
Posting it here only gets you a box full of spam.
The math is the same for all markets. The time periods that result from the
math are different per market, because each market operates on different
cycles. Note a price chart and you can see they are all different.
If you are looking for the math involved, I'm afraid that information is not
being given out. The tools that do the math automatically have been
available.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
http://profitmaxtrading.com
==============================
TRADING E-BOOKS - http://fdates.com/ebooks
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3CDD1E...@ncounty.net...
Timairity
>the difference between 'expecting' a cycle turn and actually trading one.
You'd be better off turning blue before trading those bean tops of yours!!
>Too many inexperienced traders, like Timarity and his brothers, have long
>given up trying to make trading work for them.
Hmm, let's see., On March 14th this was posted:
"Some broad themes in play right now
include (1) a Federal Reserve that has unleashed gargantuan liquidity into the
system (not a sign that commodities will tank); (2) the Japanese central bank
attempting to do the same; (3) a truly messed up economy in Argentina, which
produces much grain (I'm not sure this is necessarily bullish, but it certainly
is not bearish long-term); (4) the absence of the so-called February break in
the grains this year; and (5) historically low prices in grains with no
February break this year (my read is we have probably seen a bottom at least
for the next few months). Now Ratchford's thrashing about like a drunken
sailor has elicited some of my thoughts on why grains are good for scaling
after *February* this year."
On June 9th the following was posted:
"In mid-March I suggested that grains were a good trade then, and that it could
be an interesting summer for grains. Since then grains have had a nice run.
Tonight, in what appears to be non-troll Legan post, it is suggested that
cycles look bearish for grains until the beginning of July. For reasons
COMPLETELY unrelated to cycles, I lightened up my position last week.
Basically, it looks to me like at least some of the stuff I was focusing on
(esp. Argentina issues) is now priced into the markets, and the markets will
now look at how much will ultimately come out of the ground. I gather that the
current thinking is that A LOT will come out of the ground. Until weather
starts to become a serious consideration, my guess is that grains will not be
going up much for a while. They may bounce around, or they may go down, but I
doubt they will head up for a few weeks. Should they head down from here, I
won't be scale buying on the way down until probably the beginning of July."
Rick, try to pay attention. I was right. You were wrong. I called the grain
move up, in public. You called the top, in public. Twice!! Grains have gone
up. Anyone following you, had their account value go down. You are a dope.
You know very little. That has once again been shown, in public. Thank you
for the profits.
thinktank
and the 65 day SMA shows 2,626,000.
I do not understand your comments refer
"very light volume" and "61% of 65 day average"
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net>
> INDU
> "thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com>
> > You mean the DJ02U and not the INDU, right?
> > "Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net>
Jack Hershey
reading of 61% of the 65 day average. I use the volume all day long for all
the indexes as well as the cash. For some reason unknown to me I was
receiving lagging data on the INDU volume. It was correct at the open this
am and my feed is very slow although I am on cable etc.
Thanks so much for posting your correct info.
I am an amateur and I do not forecast. It just turns out that my indicators
etc are allowing me to anticipate a rising market today. I also like to
have those I mentor get used to rippling through the fractals as a way of
better nailing down their anticipation orientation. I trade on the 5 min
for futures commodities indexes and anticipate on the 1 min. The M of
CANSLIM is what I was posting about here.
"thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3d3d39c1$0$28390$91ce...@newsreader02.highway.telekom.at...
Jack Hershey
travesty.news:20020723033109...@mb-dh.aol.com...
Alan Yasutovich
Profit wrote:
> Sure I have a real address Alan.
>
> Just go to my website and click on the EMAIL link.
That is farily obvious. It was a rhetorical question of sorts.
If the email address is available then why don't we know it?
I have gotten your bounce or spam before.
>
>
> Posting it here only gets you a box full of spam.
>
> The math is the same for all markets. The time periods that result from the
> math are different per market, because each market operates on different
> cycles. Note a price chart and you can see they are all different.
>
> If you are looking for the math involved, I'm afraid that information is not
> being given out. The tools that do the math automatically have been
> available.
I am interested, as anyone is, in knowing how it works.
Do you remember my story about horse racing? Where this guy decided
that he knew how to pick winners? He found the Holy Grail. And was not
going to share it, but only gloat about picks (which we never got to except for
reports on tracks I never had access to).
If you want to be cagey then you are wasting everyones time. You keep
talking about how no one knows what they are doing and apparently
the only way to find out why is to pay you.
Alan
thinktank
I do not forecast and predict as well. even the group drifted into silence
new members can still get valuable informations, at least they can see what
does not work - forecasting and predicting. funny though that mostly people
like rick, dale and a few others insist on demonstrating what isn´t working.
when you watch multiple timeframes where comes the point when a signal is
taken even a higher time frame is neutral or pointing in the opposite
direction?
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:Ndd%8.16352$Fq6.1...@news2.west.cox.net...
> I am showing the same as you this morning. Yesterday I was getting a
> reading of 61% of the 65 day average. I use the volume all day long for
all
> the indexes as well as the cash. For some reason unknown to me I was
> receiving lagging data on the INDU volume. It was correct at the open
this
> am and my feed is very slow although I am on cable etc.
>
> Thanks so much for posting your correct info.
>
> I am an amateur and I do not forecast. It just turns out that my
indicators
> etc are allowing me to anticipate a rising market today. I also like to
> have those I mentor get used to rippling through the fractals as a way of
> better nailing down their anticipation orientation. I trade on the 5 min
> for futures commodities indexes and anticipate on the 1 min. The M of
> CANSLIM is what I was posting about here.
>
> "thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:3d3d39c1$0$28390$91ce...@newsreader02.highway.telekom.at...
> > I was asking because INDU´s volume was 4,778,592
Timairity
>Thanks for setting the record straight. This bean thing Rick did was a
>travesty.
It was pretty amazing. Calling a monthly top in June as grains head into
summer weather markets. With grains priced low relative to recent past years.
Seasonality alone should have kept the guy on the sidelines.
I'm now reminded of that well known serious commentator, Howard Stern. Years
ago, when New York was experiencing a drought, Stern kept going on, in his
usual manner, about using all the water you want. Eventually the drought
warning was lifted, and I remember Stern saying "See? I told ya. Use all the
water you want. What did you think, it wasn't going to rain?" Time for me to
be flat.
Profit
trading. You can whine and gripe all day and not post a thing that even
resembles an opinion about the market. Heaven forbid if you ever decided to
tell us what you think the market will do. We would have tons of mis-calls
from you to work with.
BTW, I understand your inability to comprehend market commentary as just
that. Did I say anything about a short trade from a bean top? No, I did not.
And since I am talking a WEEKLY peaking of the bean cycle, I'm looking for
the market to follow. If it does, then a trade is possible. If it doesn't,
no loss of funds. There is more to trading Timarity than just expecting
something. You have to get the 'signal', the setup, or whatever you want to
call it BEFORE you take a trade.
Sure would be nice if someday you could differentiate between the two. But
for now, you are still the same poor sap you have always been, unable to
grasp simple concepts in favor of being a class clown.
Like your brother Robert, we acknowledge your need for attention. We see you
Timmy.
cheers
Rick
"Timairity" <tima...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20020723033109...@mb-dh.aol.com...
Profit
major cycle pattern and comment on it in advance. Stick my neck out, as it
were. And it will continue that individuals like Timmy here will make his
commentary based on what has already occurred, something that requires no
skill or backbone to do.
To speak matter-of-factly of Soybeans as if it were common knowledge, now
rather than at the time of my major monthly cycle observation for June, is
to avoid obvious embarassment on his part when it becomes obvious that he
doesn't really have a clue what is going on until it has actually occurred.
Only then will he become an expert.
cheers
Rick
"Timairity" <tima...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20020723123545...@mb-dh.aol.com...
Profit
"I have gotten your bounce or spam before."
You never got anything from me by email.
And I don't get your comment "if the email address is available then why
don't we know it?"
You don't know it if you don't go and look, that is why?
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3D670F...@ncounty.net...
Timairity
>How convenient for you Timairity that you don't have to know a thing about
>trading. You can whine and gripe all day and not post a thing that even
>resembles an opinion about the market.
Well, Rick, go back to Dick and Jane - the posts are there for all to see. You
are braindead. You called a top in beans in June, going into summer weather
markets. That is stupid. Anyone who pays for that quality of forecast is
blind. I made money on what I said in my posts. Your comments regarding not
knowing about trading are fun, and serve to show the quality of your thought.
You do not have a clue about what you are doing in the trading arena, which is
why you use bombast to cover up your many inadequacies. You are a dope.
Thanks for the profits.
Timairity
>There will be many more opportunities in the future where I will observe a
>major cycle pattern and comment on it in advance. Stick my neck out, as it
>were. And it will continue that individuals like Timmy here will make his
>commentary based on what has already occurred, something that requires no
>skill or backbone to do.
>
>To speak matter-of-factly of Soybeans as if it were common knowledge, now
>rather than at the time of my major monthly cycle observation for June, is
>to avoid obvious embarassment on his part when it becomes obvious that he
>doesn't really have a clue what is going on until it has actually occurred.
>
Hey newbies:
Here is the post from March 14 (obviously before the fact):
> "Some broad themes in play right now
> include (1) a Federal Reserve that has unleashed gargantuan liquidity into
the
> system (not a sign that commodities will tank); (2) the Japanese central
bank
> attempting to do the same; (3) a truly messed up economy in Argentina,
which
> produces much grain (I'm not sure this is necessarily bullish, but it
certainly
> is not bearish long-term); (4) the absence of the so-called February break
in
> the grains this year; and (5) historically low prices in grains with no
> February break this year (my read is we have probably seen a bottom at
least
> for the next few months). Now Ratchford's thrashing about like a drunken
> sailor has elicited some of my thoughts on why grains are good for
scaling
> after *February* this year."
>
Newbies, here is the post from June 9 (also before the fact)
> "In mid-March I suggested that grains were a good trade then, and that it
could
> be an interesting summer for grains. Since then grains have had a nice
run.
> Tonight, in what appears to be non-troll Legan post, it is suggested that
> cycles look bearish for grains until the beginning of July. For reasons
> COMPLETELY unrelated to cycles, I lightened up my position last week.
> Basically, it looks to me like at least some of the stuff I was focusing
on
> (esp. Argentina issues) is now priced into the markets, and the markets
will
> now look at how much will ultimately come out of the ground. I gather
that the
> current thinking is that A LOT will come out of the ground. Until weather
> starts to become a serious consideration, my guess is that grains will not
be
> going up much for a while. They may bounce around, or they may go down,
but I
> doubt they will head up for a few weeks. Should they head down from here,
I
> won't be scale buying on the way down until probably the beginning of
July.">
What you are seeing here is Ratchford do his usual thrashing about to evade
that he was wrong, and to evade the point. The guy does not know what he is
doing, but he will take your money. If you're insane enough to give it to him.
Alan Yasutovich
to your posts. Your spam account bounces somehow and I
get the bounce and know that you did not receive the CC of
the post directly.
That is what I got. A bounce.
Most or all people here have their email address attached to their
posts. They can be readily contacted directly in email if desired, and
you don't have to go to a web page, fill out a form, answer or ask
any questions, or listen to a recorded message to do it.
That's all. I don't have to "go and look" to contact anyone else.
Is that just a wayof getting people to go to your web page?
Alan
craig wisper
I don't see a mention of prices or times
just fundamentals
I have to go with Rick on this one since I am a TA trader
try to think of 'cycles' as patterns
then think of pattern failures
and how a market makes big moves
from these zones
we make and lose money when the market moves
"Timairity" <tima...@aol.com> wrote in message news:20020723150901...@mb-cu.aol.com...
Profit
Using a real address will invite tons of email spam into my email box.
Haven't you heard of email harvesting?
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3DAB43...@ncounty.net...
Profit
again just because you don't believe it happens.
Email addresses ARE havested from newsgroups and then spammed like crazy.
I've already dumped two email addresses because of this.
My current one hardly ever gets spam, because I won't use it in my reply
box.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
http://profitmaxtrading.com
==============================
TRADING E-BOOKS - http://fdates.com/ebooks
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3E1522...@ncounty.net...
Timairity
>what does this prove?
>I don't see a mention of prices or times
>just fundamentals
You will also see the mention of "scaling." You trade differently than I do.
I like to scale in and out of trades using fundamentals to determine the
market. You'll also see a comment about scaling having become good after
February, and after the beginning of July (time).
The reason I reposted it is the suggestion that there was no call and no
trading being done. If that had not come up in would have left it alone and
not reposted it.
I did not post the whole discussion, but if you check out the post at
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=20020315014513.14603.00001582%40mb-fc
.aol.com&rnum=4
you will also find "As to grains, I expect it to be an interesting summer, and
I
believe position trades taken today will be profitable, but I prefer to scale
into them." Position trades also are obviously different than the way you
trade, but the time is there (today), and its clear that grains have had a nice
move.
Good trading to you.
Tim
Alan M
"Profit" <nos...@thank.you> wrote in message
> Well, it is a fact, and I'm not going to plant my email address out here
> again just because you don't believe it happens.
>
> Email addresses ARE havested from newsgroups and then spammed like crazy.
> I've already dumped two email addresses because of this.
>
> My current one hardly ever gets spam, because I won't use it in my reply
> box.
>
This is totally correct. I've blocked more spammers than I care to remember,
but you still have to download the nonsense from the mail server. I've tried
putting "nospam" in the email address but they can take this out. I'll have
to change it to something more obtuse.
Profit
shoes of Pee Wee Herman.
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3EB31A...@ncounty.net...
Jack Hershey
"thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3d3d7065$0$19102$91ce...@newsreader02.highway.telekom.at...
> no problem, at least I know that my quotes are working ;)
>
> I do not forecast and predict as well. even the group drifted into silence
> new members can still get valuable informations, at least they can see
what
> does not work - forecasting and predicting. funny though that mostly
people
> like rick, dale and a few others insist on demonstrating what isn´t
working.
Yes it is getting convincing at this point. I run mini profiles on each
person to better understand the reasoning sequence that got them to where
they are. Further I check to see if they are so firmly entrenched that they
are unable to reason through ways to improve their processes. I divide the
effort into two parts: analysis and trading. The gifs and charts that are
being posted are the most informative parts. I did not know, at first, how
limiting using charts can be for a person in such a mental and emotional
state. The example here recently of going long into a falling trend day
after day was a little frightening. We are all used to the efforts made by
those tuned to the wrong chart periodicity and the compensating rules to
attempt to handle the dilemma that results. So your next paragraph is a
nice focal point.
>
> when you watch multiple timeframes where comes the point when a signal is
> taken even a higher time frame is neutral or pointing in the opposite
> direction?
By using 7 fractals you can cover all of the financial industry
considerations. 1min, 5min, 30min, daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly. I
separate these by using a factor of five which is not an arbitrary
consideration. It has to do with the data streams that originate from the
various financial centers of information and financial power. Secondly, it
has to do with data delivery and the way in which the markets operate with
respect to their pace.
Huge chunks of the financial industry are caught in dilemmas of their
choosing. This is the nature of the driving forces of the industry
ownership. I need to cite a few to be clear about how these things provide a
reliable foundation upon which to build an analysis and trading operation.
The one clear thing about markets is that unknowns are detrimental and the
knowns are supportive. A negative known like these dilemmas is a
foundational support.
Financial analystsand planners are a significant group in the industry. In
all lead articles this week on how to deal with the present, the "party
line" is being followed. See yesterday's New York Times. The emphasis on
four items drives the work of financial analysts: Asset Allocation (91%),
Security Selection (6%), Market timing (2%), and other (1%). You can see
that now the clients of these folk are asking about why they have less
capital than they had before. The media is pumping out information by
asking the analysts and planners for stuff they can write about. The
anedote to this type of reasoning is to just consider apperciating capital
as effectively as possible. Mellon and Carnegie suggested: Saving, making
investments, monitoring investments and making timely decisions. Thus we
can operate in the pervasive climate caused by financial analysts and
planners and just continue to make money as time passes regardless of the
climate.
Mutual funds and their management is another dilemma of the industry. They
do less well than the indexes and a lot less than the stocks of the nutual
fund companies. A typical anualized percentage ratio for a ten year period
is is: 13.6:16.2:65.9. Nowadays the mutual fund industry has captured a
large percentage of the savings encouraged by the IRS.
The combination of government incentives and an investment dilemma gives us
a major known negative with which it is easy to deal.
The focus of these two forces are fractals that are slow and have key
influences of lagging data. Classic examples are 10Q's, quarterly reports
and analysts opinions. Most of these are influenced by GAAP which in itself
is a lagging construct. Other government organization and economic
monitoring groups focus on monthly data sets that also lag by several units
of time and are usually modified at a later point in time.
So you see the quarterly and monthly fractals. The weekly is one that is
controls by clients of the financial industry. Barrons is the leader here
as an example. People who have jobs look at stuff on the weekend to some
degree. There are vendors here who do the Monday thing for example. The WSJ
and IBD continue the tradition of daily data delivery. Brokerage houses
often provide a background noise of rattling paper. Computers are turned on
and off on a daily basis. Venders here often are stuck in the daily routine
as well. There is a singular reason for all of this focus. It is
mathematics and intellectual laziness. There is nothing more easily done
than applying arithmetic and geometry to EOD data. And there is no
connection of this data to the market in a timing sense. The market has a
range of paces. These are not determined or discernable by a person choice
of data collection periodicity. Some people here feel that time is not a
entity; others are totally unable to reconcile time and analysis and they
bandaid everything they do poorly with obtuse rules.
Above takes us through the quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily fractals.
This is the world of people who have jobs and financial industry people who
service them.
Now we turn to people who make money. There is a line in the sand. People
who make money are on one side of that line. They do not have regular jobs.
They have approaches that required that they analyze and monitor the markets
and their investments. They are required to make timely decisions. The
shift from Mellon to financial analysts was a shift from doing it yourself
to hiring someone to do it for you. Now we return to doing it yourself.
You will find that people who make money do it themselves. The people who
are hired by others to do it for them do not make money. Hired people do
not make money from the markets for themselves nor for the people who pay
them. In any econometric model there are direct, indirect, induced and
substitution effects. Financial industry vendors make money in the indirect
category; they are subservient to their clients for income. People who make
money work in the direct arena; they are linked directly to the market and
they have approaches that provide for their successes. Real estate is a
substitioun effect for this conversation. It is an alternative to investing
in markets. The hardware store is the induced effect. People who make
money in the market buy paint to refresh their environment using profits.
So the remaining fractals serve one purpose only. The purpose is making
timely decisions. The reason for making timely decisions is to appreciate
capital at the most effective rate. I played with Rick for a while in one
of many contexts. I tried to deal with where he was stuck on understanding
making money. My mechanism was to use money velocity. And the discussion
was limited to the extent that the trades could be understood by whoever. I
ran along with a money velocity four times his to make a point about timing.
Two timing factors are crucial for having a comprehensive approach. I am
saying this in the context that the market variables are well established.
You cannot have an approach that will work if you do not include the
significant market variables. They include a product variable and a
participant variable.
The crucial timing factors are the pace of the market and the periodicity of
the trading fractal. The trading fractal is chosen because it is the place
where you optimize capital appreciation. This is given to you by the market.
Anyone who chooses it instead of letting the market choose it is beating a
dead horse. Appreciating capital is done by compounding the capital. A
limiting case is "buy and hold". There is no worse way to use the compound
interest formula. If financial analysts and mutual fund managers used this
on every stock they dealt with they would cure a great deal of their mutual
dilemmas. There is no choice on this. Do DELL for yourself. Hold it for a
year or trade it on the fractal tuned to its price variation. You will be
making at least 70% on the stock every 6 months.
Now to answer your question. You did go through the sequencing of the
fractals in both directions. And you discovered the key issue to be
resolved quickly and cogently. You are not stuck in your reasoning
processes. And you are on the mark.
What you see on adjacent fractals is the 5:1 relationship that zooms you in
on the money making opportunity and past it to the noise levels. You also
see that unequivocally
Fractals do relate to specific data delivery systems from different data
generating sources. We are in 10Q and financial statement land with a major
dictatorial milestone coming up (14AUG02). This is an administration
generated equivalent to 11 SEP01 and it will be the biggest NOV election
windfall ever created.
So quarterly, monthly and weekly fractals give us the market trends and
these are demonstrated to be the slowest capital appreciation fractals to
consider. The ball park begins with the daily and 30 minute pair. You can
use these for analysis of the equities market. You monitor the equities on
the 30 min and 5 min pair. And you make decisions on the 30 min and
anticipate the decision making on the 5 min.
As you cast off the Q, M and W to focus on the D, 30 and 5, you see that the
subsets are least linked (Alexander's Method). By applying the compound
interest formula the market tells you to trade on the 30 minute. You will
find a bell curve of performance as you check it out. People, as a rule,
intuitively, cannot handle the compound interest formula (and they think
they can), so they are not going to find the proper fractal in the first
place. The fractal is dictated by the market and it may not be consciously
observatble.
You are now in a place where you can verify for equities that you make the
most money using the 30 min fractal for trading. The other event that is
now in place is that to do the job of money making, using a pair of fractals
is a key ingredient. And you have discovered why as well. Your comment on
how things seem contradictory is very cogent. Primarily I spent time giving
you two subsets (Q, M, D and D, 30, 5) to clearly show that market trends
and equities trends are separate vis a vis making money. In golf drive for
pleasure and putt for money applies here. So if within the subsets things
are messy this means outside influences are disrupting the flow of the
market in those respective arenas. Any disruption means sideline. This is
the primary risk consideration. All geometric analysis fails to be able to
take this flaw into account. And all geometric analysis has no means of
dealing with both of the primary market variables. It takes at least a
three dimensional model that is beyond the reasoning of people who use
arithmetic primarily. They are handicapped intellectually as their choice.
Now for the fun part. Commodities. Commodities are divided into two parts:
materials based and data based. I used to use a differentiation for this
called molecules and bits. The entire financial industry uses measures
associated with tradition and a while back there were only molecular
considerations. The line in the sand is whether the method was developed
before bits appeared or not. It is a clear line. To use a tool in the
industry properly you need to recalibrate it if it was invented (defaulted)
prior to bits appearing. I have calibrated all the indicators for analysis
purposes. Pre bit methods or approaches cannot be applied effectively in
today's markets.
The other significant issue is how the markets operate. Equities markets
and commodities markets (as a whole) operate very differently and have
differing participants. The product variable is there of course but the
people variable is a different one to consider. Transference is, therefore,
a 50 % game to start with.
I do the bit part of commodities primarily. The fractal pair is 5 min and 1
min and the trading fractal is the 5 min. You anticipate on the one min.
For molecularly based commodities it is slower. This is demonstrated by the
vendors here. The worst applications here are slower than equities
erroneously. You must not work in a venue that is any slower than the
equities. The susets I have defined allow TA people to see the most
significant pair of periodicities for monitoring. There is a slow carrier
frequency (Q. M, D) and on it rides the trading frequency (D, 30, 5). We
see how consistently these signals can be confused if you have a system that
bridges both or simply misses the trading frequency. Rick is classic for
never ID'ing double bottoms or formations like head and shoulders. Craig on
the other hand consistently sees things that are not there. Not only do
they only deal with half the pertinent variables, but they are operating
geometrically on the fractals that are not used to make money effectively.
They are deciding the fractals as the market tells them to use other
fractals.
The other main thread of time in the market is it's pace. The market does
not move at a steady pace. If you do not consider and deal with this you
engender risk. Minimizing risk is best accomplished with backup protection.
You do not use protection for trading purposes but you have it in place for
when "outside" market events drive the market temporarily. Protection is
determined by the pace of the market. The fractal pairs can vary in a
market according to the pace.
For commodities use 15 and 5 min as a slow pace pair. Use 5 and 1 for
normal pace and use 1 only for fast pace. The way you determine the pace of
the market is by monitoring formations. You have a set of formations that
occur over and over and over. This is what money makers refer to as KISS in
trading commodities. I will illustrate this a little. Go to the fractal
that shows scalping for a given commodity. Since getting to KISS takes a
while it is important to at least know where you want to arrive at somehow.
You will do two things to achieve getting there this time. You have to go
through the fractals and you also have to adjust the scale to see the
scalping. Most of the charts posted here are screwed up on scale so their
usefulness isn't available anyway. Keep looking as you make the effort.
Pace of the market changes on an intraday basis. One of the paces is called
congestion and it is a trend as well referred to as "lateral" often. There
is a phenomena called cycle trading or something like that which is focused
on lateral channels. In commodities it is the focus of the scalpers. Rick
has a term for it that relates to his past experience in loosing money
rapidly; he says he is getting whipsawed or he says others are when he fails
to see them trading at the fast pace of a commodity.
Once you are on the market pace fractal, you are able to see three types of
trends clearly. Up to that point your approach is designed around only two
types of trends and it cannot differentiate between the carrier frequency
and the trading frequency. The third trend is the lateral trend.
All entry, hold and exit strategies are based on whether the designer knows
there are three trends or not. If they are based on two trends, there is
usually a very heavy risk management requirement and also a money management
procedure. It is a basic choice to either consider the three possible
trends or to use two trends and compensate for the additional risk incurred.
Most two trend and risk management approaches are also stuck in a
forecasting modus that dooms them from day one. Find a forecasting approach
that incorporates congestion or lateral trends. These items turn out to be
mutually exclusive in the industry.
Once you focus on the trading fractal, you can use the repeating formations
list in the anticipatory fractal to correctly determine your protection and
what market tools you use at what time. The greatest combo of info is used
to differential failures to breakout and to know when to reverse a trade.
When you get to this place it is all KISS.
By monitoring 12 different quality approaches of people who are on the side
of the line for making money, I have become keenly aware of how to
iteratively refine approaches of individuals who are in the right place. I
weed people out and drive them away from me by how I post if they are stuck
or intransient. Someone has really taken the trouble here to figure out how
crappy my posts are. They democratically voted on it.
Slowly go through this and highlight the new info you find. Also use this
to corroberate what is in your approach that parallels this. Finally find
out where we differ. The focus on our differences is important. One of us
needs to improve. One of the most difficult aspects of self learning is
finding out what you have learned wrong.
I always have had trouble taking tests since my scores are one sided. When
I find a test that gives me a score that can be enhanced I try to focus on
that arena for improving myself. The commodities market is a very good
testing ground. Equities seems to be limited for some reason.
I feel I have things pretty well bounded and I feel there is some
opportunity to eek more appreciation out of the market. That is why I have
a money velocity focus. Moving from one opportunity to another seems to be
the place for that. How to do the crossovers ought to be a fun thing to
learn. I have it own for equities at this point.
Jack Hershey
"thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3d3d7065$0$19102$91ce...@newsreader02.highway.telekom.at...
> no problem, at least I know that my quotes are working ;)
>
> I do not forecast and predict as well. even the group drifted into silence
> new members can still get valuable informations, at least they can see
what
> does not work - forecasting and predicting. funny though that mostly
people
> like rick, dale and a few others insist on demonstrating what isn´t
working.
Yes it is getting convincing at this point. I run mini profiles on each
person to better understand the reasoning sequence that got them to where
they are. Further I check to see if they are so firmly entrenched that they
are unable to reason through ways to improve their processes. I divide the
effort into two parts: analysis and trading. The gifs and charts that are
being posted are the most informative parts. I did not know, at first, how
limiting using charts can be for a person in such a mental and emotional
state. The example here recently of going long into a falling trend day
after day was a little frightening. We are all used to the efforts made by
those tuned to the wrong chart periodicity and the compensating rules to
attempt to handle the dilemma that results. So your next paragraph is a
nice focal point.
>
> when you watch multiple timeframes where comes the point when a signal is
> taken even a higher time frame is neutral or pointing in the opposite
> direction?
By using 7 fractals you can cover all of the financial industry
Profit
high degree of accuracy, you have an edge that most only dream about (and
that includes Jack).
Individuals who make outspoken comments about forecasting being either
impossible to do with precision, or not being of trading value, simply have
never found their place among those who know the opposite to be true.
Traders use indicators and/or fundamental news to try and determine which
way the market will move. Their actions and the tools they use are being put
into action to attempt to 'forecast' the market, although from the left side
of their mouths they will suggest otherwise. Anyone not recognizing the fact
that every trader is attempting to forecast market direction, at the same
time making a sour face while forming the word 'forecasting' with their
lips, is simply fooling themselves.
What really confuses many the critic is the wording used (terminology).
Unfortunately, instead of expending the extra effort to try and comprehend,
the simple mind finds the easier path of simply criticising. It feels better
to be part of the louder group of critics, where your back is slapped for
being just as ignorant as the rest of the clique, then to be one of the
silent few that are cashing in on real knowledge and trading wisdom.
I know that most will never see, experience the wonders of forecasting
techniques I have been priviledged to come across and now utilize. Most will
never sit in the audience watching before their eyes the fascinating, and
clearly obvious when demonstrated, power of market cycles as those who have
been to the few trading seminars I have provided over the years.
Instead, years will continue to pass where old names are replaced by new
ones, with the same critical expressions that forecasting does not work,
cannot be of value, and so forth. And one day these will be replaced with
yet a new group of 'insightful' one year wonders in trading. What will
remain a constant is that I will never change what I know to be fact, have
seen it to be fact, experience it every day as fact, and so cannot be
persuaded to ever say otherwise.
Jack runs his mini profiles as if this is going to improve his trading, lot
in life, or make him new uninformed friends that may feed his need for
recognition. All this will continue to prove fruitless in light of trading
truths and profits. Some will be in awe of his mix of incomprehensible
words, not knowing what he actually said but like the tickling of their ears
by it, and after years of this not even realize they have not made any
progress in their own trading. What a shame, but I have seen it year after
year without let up. Long ago I have stopped worrying about those
comfortable with simple thoughts and easily swayed opinions. A simple truth
in trading is that no method or approach is right for everyone. And a
stronger truth is that most will find a way to avoid that which would have
turned their trading around for the better, because the cost of doing so
would mean deviating from the norm, the masses, the popular.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
http://profitmaxtrading.com
==============================
TRADING E-BOOKS - http://fdates.com/ebooks
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:5wC%8.17842$Fq6.2...@news2.west.cox.net...
Jack Hershey
thinktank
your entire post because you might have something to add referring different
time frames and trends ... what a waste of time ... prattling the same crap
over and over again.
it took me 1 minunte to read your post and another minute to respond -
nothing new, nothing with value, nothing learned - case closed
it took me 10 minutes to read jack´s post and I will have to reread it
several more times and probably 1 or 2 days to respond the way I believe he
deserves it - maybe something new and valueable to learn - ring binder
opened
"Profit" <nos...@thank.you>
> When you have the right tools and knowledge to forecast the market with a
> high degree of accuracy,
>
Dale Legan
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3E1522...@ncounty.net...
Profit
"thinktank" <thinktan...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3d3f0777$0$18838$91ce...@newsreader01.highway.telekom.at...
Jack Hershey
Jack Hershey
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3CDBFE...@ncounty.net...
> I could show you how to pick tops.
>
> And bottoms.
>
> Alan
Alan Yasutovich
"Fun with........."
Wadayathink? Just think of what you will do with all your
extra time now!!
Just gotta pay attention to what kind of move it will be and pull
out profits fast is necessary. No guarantees on that.
But it covers all the moves.
"I know all the moves".
Alan
Jack Hershey
> I have to go with Rick on this one since I am a TA trader
Not really you are into geometry sort of. You emphasis on volume is really
impressive.
Rick does not use TA either.
> try to think of 'cycles' as patterns
> then think of pattern failures
> and how a market makes big moves
> from these zones
> we make and lose money when the market moves
Why do the loosing thing? What you think are zones are something else in
TA.
Patterns do not fail. If you are into failure it may be you who is causing
it. there are flaws in how things go meaning that all the pieces aren't in
tune, then is when you stay sidelined. your recent screwup on the "long"
traes was a classic example as many pointed out to you/
Jack Hershey
attachment.
I am guessing the Fun with .......had attachments and my server might have
filtered them or something. I didn't see any attachments.
There was no trading info on the attachment test and in the text of the fun
with I found no substantive info on trading.
It's not your problem I know; I am just in a set up where your data output
isn't getting to me.
If you have any data related to your ROI and how you deploy capital it would
be nice to hear about.
At this point I seem to eek out a little more by not operating at the tops
and bottoms. I am more oriented to market pace and money velocity.
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3F22B3...@ncounty.net...
Alan Yasutovich
The notion of finding a top or bottom is only interesting in the
fact that you can then hopefully get the max return on the rebound.
(Both ways).
So if it is easy to find, then it really is the BEST starting place.
I can email you charts directly if you like.
Alan
Profit
some Analysts like myself do not rest their opinions on only one technique,
but a series of techniques. Usually some tool or tools will carry a greater
weight with the Analyst. In my case, I put greater weight on the information
I receive that is cycle based. But I will most certainly look at
support/resistance values, Stochastic indicator, trend line analysis,
pattern analysis, and plain old fashioned market experience.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
http://profitmaxtrading.com
==============================
TRADING E-BOOKS - http://fdates.com/ebooks
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:IGF%8.17919$Fq6.2...@news2.west.cox.net...
craig wisper
Some will be in awe of his mix of incomprehensible
> words, not knowing what he actually said but like the tickling of their ears
> by it, and after years of this not even realize they have not made any
> progress in their own trading. What a shame, but I have seen it year after
> year without let up. Long ago I have stopped worrying about those
> comfortable with simple thoughts and easily swayed opinions. A simple truth
> in trading is that no method or approach is right for everyone. And a
> stronger truth is that most will find a way to avoid that which would have
> turned their trading around for the better, because the cost of doing so
> would mean deviating from the norm, the masses, the popular.
is Jack is stuck?
it is an impressive display of drivel laced with gnarly floating abstractions
wow!
akin to bebop jazz
Miles Davis or something
beliefs systems can kill you or save you in this world
___resistance becomes support/support becomes resistance___
Jack Hershey
us actual information on the specific ones you used in a given case.
Since you never mention any of these things in an analysis, monitoring or a
trading context, we conclude you are doing what you say you are doing.
The live cattle post today was a terrific example of not saying anything.
You have been asked for a couple of trading details. How about some
analysis stuff along the lines you speak of.
Let us know your daily focus on how you are or aren't monitoring the live
cattle as well. Slip in a few symbols as well just for the fun of it.
Shoot us the facts on the carrier periodicity here and let us know a little
about what kind of signals you are seeing from the trading possibilities
that the carrier is supporting. Last time you missed on this stuff.
"Profit" <nos...@thank.you> wrote in message
news:_zG%8.10442$Mb....@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
Jack Hershey
test one. I have that one in my printed file.
"Alan Yasutovich" <ya...@ncounty.net> wrote in message
news:3D3F312C...@ncounty.net...
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
Re: TR: Live Cattle: Rally to start tomorrow
Posted By: GunterK (broker, CTA)
Date: Wednesday, 24 July 2002, at 10:21 p.m.
In Response To: TR: Live Cattle: Rally to start tomorrow (Rick
(Analyst/Educator/Trader))
Is this the same Rick who predicted on the TFC forum on Tuesday that the
stock market would reverse and rally on Wednesday???
Good job, Rick
While I am putting it all on the line on various trading forums, making
forecasts of market action with a high degree of accuracy, you are left here
simply looking for something to critique. Why don't you just do your own
thing Jack? You can't compete with me on any level, whether it be trading or
forecasting. So drop the pretense that you even have an inkling of what is
going on, and just try to let your own work speak for itself if possible.
The more time you spend on discussing my work or person, the bigger the fool
you appear.
--
Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.
http://profitmaxtrading.com
==============================
TRADING E-BOOKS - http://fdates.com/ebooks
CURRENT TRADING BOOK DEALS - http://fdates.com/book_offer.htm
"Jack Hershey" <jhers...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:14M%8.18421$Fq6.2...@news2.west.cox.net...
Timairity
>I know that most will never see, experience the wonders of forecasting
>techniques I have been priviledged to come across and now utilize.
Pity the few.
Tim
"As for a 'duh' moment, that itself is a trick question. I will have to
admit, I cannot answer that one. <g>" Rick Ratchford 6/21/02
"Fdates does not mean you will be profitable." R R 9/2/01