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Rising Dividends in 2011 and 2012

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Elle

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Jan 12, 2012, 3:41:15 PM1/12/12
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>From the NY Times yesterday:
---
Companies listed in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index paid $240.6
billion in dividends in 2011, up from $205 billion in 2010. The 2011
payout was the largest since 2008, when firms had not yet been hit by
the full brunt of the financial crisis and paid a record $247.8
billion in dividends.

[And while I hate short-term forecasting, shucks, let me include this
from the article:]

Dividends are on track to set a record of more than $252 billion in
2012, according to data released by S.& P. that is based on the
current dividend rates of 394 companies. While there could be some
changes as the reporting season begins this week, analysts said
companies were expected to continue to pay shareholders, possibly at
the same rates or higher, as some of the economic and fiscal headwinds
from 2011 tapered off.
---

This won't make up for the loss of income from my 4.5% CDs maturing by
the end of January, but it's something.

dumbstruck

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Jan 12, 2012, 5:22:45 PM1/12/12
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Some commentators claim that companies with higher dividends are so
popular now that they have become historically overvalued and could
see a quite a share price drop if there is a return to norm. I recall
dividend stocks being bitten when adverse taxation proposals are
aired. So I wonder if forward p/e ratios or whatever bear this out.
Maybe too late to join VIG or the like?

Elle

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Jan 12, 2012, 6:52:51 PM1/12/12
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Dunno about the higher dividend (and typically not S&P 500) companies.
The P/E ratios at which I am looking (for older, large cap companies
with a decent dividend, but not super high dividend) do not
particularly bear signs of over-valuation. The S&P P/E is about 12
right now. This is quite low, historically speaking, with the average
going back 100+ (Shiller data) years at about 15. Yield is 2%.

dumbstruck

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Jan 13, 2012, 7:29:41 PM1/13/12
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On Jan 12, 1:52 pm, Elle <honda.lion...@gmail.com> wrote:
> The P/E ratios at which I am looking (for older, large cap companies
> with a decent dividend, but not super high dividend) do not
> particularly bear signs of over-valuation.

Morningstar has an article on their picks of the dividend etfs. They
mention my VIG, but say VYM is better. They love HDV, which is based
on their own index of excellant stocks in their own right that happen
to be dividend heavy. It looks good even tho this chart omits the
dividend return: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=VIG&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=hdv%2Cprf%2Cvym&c=^GSPC

Elle

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Jan 13, 2012, 9:03:46 PM1/13/12
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On Jan 13, 5:29 pm, dumbstruck <dumbst...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Jan 12, 1:52 pm, Elle <honda.lion...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > The P/E ratios at which I am looking (for older, large cap companies
> > with a decent dividend, but not super high dividend) do not
> > particularly bear signs of over-valuation.
>
> Morningstar has an article on their picks of the dividend etfs. They
> mention my VIG, but say VYM is better.

Good report. FWIW, if I were a little more into buying funds lately, I
would buy both of these equally. (I have a few funds but way more
individual stocks. And at the moment, too much darn cash from CDs
coming due and no save haven for it, as many are complaining in unison
with me.)

VIG and VYM's P/Es are around 12 and 11, respectively, as a crude
metric of the funds. Annual turnover at 15-16% is tolerable for tax
purposes.

> They love HDV, which is based
> on their own index of excellant stocks in their own right that happen

It is against my religion (part Bogle-ite) to pay an expense ratio
more than about 0.20%. HDV's is 0.4%. I know we disagree on this. :-)

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