economic cycles
Devo
cycles. The economists have detected three great cycles of the
economy: based on the business (commercial crises), based on the
technological innovation (technological crises) and based on the
credit (monetary crises).
The commercial crisis are most current, we lived them every day, the
products raise and lower, increase the interest or diminish,
businesses are opened or closed. The technological crises are more
complicated, a technological innovation generates an increase of the
investment, an increase of the demand and, in general, whom all the
market is mobilized before the new product. The credit crises affect
periodically to the markets and of the those pending crises they are
the stock-exchange agents, the governments, the bank and the
industralists.
Each one of the crisis that we have mentioned is independent within
the general concert of the economy. Of way that when one takes place,
we can be sure that it is not going to agree with the others, so we
can hope that if the businesses, the technological innovation or the
financing fails, the other two sectors throw of the economy and remove
to the sector that has failed of the crisis.
But when one of those sectors fails and begins to cause that the other
sectors fail, we are not before a conjunctural crisis but before a
structural crisis that aims towards a generalized failure of the
economy and to that there is necessity of a deep reconstruction of all
the economy so that all the machinery begins to work and the
resuscitation of all the sectors (commercial, technological and
financial) obtains that auto-correction the set.
Cases of a conjunctural crisis of the finances were łblack Monday˛ of
1987 or crash of the stock-exchange bubble of the companies. Com in
2000, although supposed many personal dramas, dismissals and changes
in the world of the companies, did not suppose that the economy as a
whole was stopped.
Cases of conjunctural crisis of the technologies were the
automatization of the production at the beginning of the decade of
1950 and the appearance of the information highways in the decade of
1990.
Cases of conjunctural crisis of the commerce were the passage of the
typewriter to the PC in the the 90 decade of or the boom of the
movable telephony in the following decade.
But when a structural crisis arrives from the economy, and they arrive
very from time to time (1929, 1979, 2009), watching in that lax of
time, agree outer causes to on-speed operation of the economy that
cause that this one has an exceptional and anodyne operation: a
warlike crisis or a war that have caused a fast cost of resources and
have affected radically to the normal distribution of productive
resources in an economy (national or international) and a rise of the
power values that have redistributed the power resources of an economy
and unemployed - or frightened their production.
These are the factors that have caused the deep crisis of the
international economy in the last 90 or 100 years, approximately.
1929: exit of the I World war and triumph of the motor of internal
combustion in the industry and means of transport (oligopoly of the
industry of petroleum)
1979: exit of the War of Vietnam and II crisis of petroleum (cartel of
the producing countries)
2009: exit of the War of Iraq and III crisis of petroleum (cartel of
the producing countries)
* The I crisis of petroleum was in 1973. In 2008, petroleum upper
reached its price in all its history, pushed so much by the
speculative movement of the markets as by the increase in the demand
of countries in process of industrialization like India or China.
--
It's amazing what you can do. If...
you put your mind to it.
phil scott
you left out the well known national collapse cycle, Kondraiv's
winterr cycle... very 250 years or so... not a mere depression but
loss of empire or worse
............ reboot takes two generations or so.
Phil scott