Frugal Investing By Being Price-Right
thebrill...@gmail.com
Source: http://TheBrilliantBull.Com
(Why keep guessing or wondering about the market, when chances are the
smart ones already know what's going to happen well before it happens?
Anyway, if you want to get the updates sooner, just visit the website
TheBrilliantBull.Com yourself and subscribe to its RSS, the time-stamp
shown was E.S.T./N.Y.T.)
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August 1, 2007
Market UpDate (August 1, 2007)
by thebrilliantbull @ 1:28 pm
ABSTRACT: Market Indexes forecasted to go up by about 2%
(To read the original full text, visit TheBrilliantBull.Com)
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August 2, 2007
Market UpDate (August 2, 2007)
by thebrilliantbull @ 2:58 pm
ABSTRACT: Forecasted 2% upside fulfilled. Take profits. Sideways
market with bearish bias expected next.
(To read the original full text, visit TheBrilliantBull.Com)
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August 3, 2007
Market UpDate (August 3, 2007)
by thebrilliantbull @ 12:25 pm
ABSTRACT: Holding pattern, price in narrow range. Temporarily
oscillating in narrow range, with longer-term bearish bias.
After having sold short at yesterday's intra-day peaks and especially
at the closing high, Wall Street shorted again at the open today,
which not surprisingly is followed by a price drop. However, it is
likely that the Street has reversed and short-covered, at least
partially, beginning about one hour into today's trading session.
As usual, such Street short-covering has bullish implications, the
only question is how much. This also could mean a possible
modification of the Street's price script, if only temporarily and for
a rather short-term.
So what the change in script could be? One scenario is that a rally
will be staged to squeeze the intra-day public bears who most likely
had just sold short about one hour after the market open, having
expected a continuation of price decline after their trend-following
system gave a lagging "sell signal" and belatedly "confirmed" the
visually obvious price drop as a "trend", with the Street taking the
other side of their short sale.
It should not be surprising to then see a price run-up to the level of
yesterday's high and this morning's open, and indeed probably breaking
above that to create the chart pattern of a "price breakout".
A price breakout, whether real or false, will typically shake out
public bears who had earlier sold short at a typically inappropriately
low price point, by forcing them to cover at a significant loss and
ironically often at or near the peak price of what would be a bull-
trap.
To what extent this scenario of a false breakout and a bull-trap will
materialize, remains to be seen, but it is certainly a rather likely
outcome that should be included in any smart trader or investor's
deliberation, anticipation and planning.
Obviously, this would mean an even lower price amplitude, making it
very difficult for John Q. Public to profit after commission charges
and slippage, and especially if the lagging trend-following methods
are used.