[NYTr] Iran Set for Space Launch

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Aviation Week & Space Technology - Jan 26, 2007
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/IRAN01257.xml

Iran Set for Space Launch

By Craig Covault

Iran has converted one of its most powerful ballistic missiles into a
satellite launch vehicle. The 30-ton rocket could also be a wolf in
sheep's clothing for testing longer-range missile strike technologies,
Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine reports in its Jan. 29 issue.

The Iranian space launcher has recently been assembled and "will
liftoff soon" with an Iranian satellite, according to Alaoddin
Boroujerdi, the chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security
and Foreign Policy Commission.

The move toward an independent space launch capacity is likely to
ratchet up concern in the U.S. and Europe about Iran's strategic
capabilities and intents. Orbiting its own satellite would send a
powerful message throughout the Muslim world about the Shiite regime in
Tehran.

U.S. agencies believe the launcher to be a derivation of either of two
vehicles -- the liquid-propellant, 800-1,000-mi. range Shahab 3
missile, or the 1,800-mi. range, solid propellant Ghadar-110. A Shahab
3 or a Ghadar-110 fired from central Iran could strike anywhere in
Israel, Saudi Arabia, the entire Persian Gulf region and as far west as
southern Turkey.

There are concerns in the West that space launch upgrades, however,
could eventually create an Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM) with a range of nearly 2,500 mi., giving Tehran the ability to
strike as far as central Europe, well into Russia and even China and
India.

The U. S. Defense Intelligence Agency has told the Congress that Iran
may be capable of developing a 3,000-mi. range ICBM by 2015.

"But ultimately, their space program aims to orbit reconnaissance
satellites like Israel's "Ofek," using an Iranian satellite launcher
from Iranian territory, says Uzi Rubin, the former head of the Israel
Missile Defense Organization. Rubin made his assessment in a report for
The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

"A reconnaissance satellite of reasonable performance should weigh
about 300 kg. [660 lb.] Once Iran learns how to put 300 kg. into earth
orbit, it could adapt the satellite launcher into an ICBM that could
drop more than 300 kg anywhere in the world. Remember the impact on the
U.S. of Russia's launch of Sputnik," Rubin says in his assessment.

Boroujerdi's made his remarks about the imminent Iranian launch in a
speech before a group of religious students and clerics in the city of
Qom near where Iran has conducted some of its ballistic missile tests.
Iran is now in the midst of military exercises that include a series of
shorter-range missile tests, Iranian officials say.

Although designed as a technology demonstrator, the planned satellite
launch would be a potent political and emotional weapon in the Middle
East.

The new space launcher and ongoing missile development is also
significant in that it highlights close technological ties between the
Iranian and North Korean missiles programs, intelligence agencies agree.

Analysts at GlobalSecurity.org believe that if the version used is the
Shahab 3, the modification could be a stepping stone to a clone of the
North Korean Taepo Dong 2C/3 ballistic missile that failed in a launch
attempt from North Korea last July 4.

A November 2006 Congressional Research Service report reinforced
concerns over Iranian and North Korean missile development ties. It
notes that Israel's military intelligence chief has information
indicating that North Korea has shipped to Iran eighteen 1,500 mi.
range BM-25 ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

"Largely with foreign help, Iran is becoming self-sufficient in the
production of ballistic missiles," says the report's author, Kenneth
Katzman. And he reminds that a 2006 U.S. National Security Strategy
Document notes, "The United States may face no greater challenge from a
single country than Iran."

AVIATION WEEK Copyright 2007

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