Did Hezbollah Thwart a Bush/Olmert Attack on Beirut?
Tim Murphy
Counter Punch
www.counterpunch.org
A Sudden Case of Cold Feet
Did Hezbollah Thwart a Bush/Olmert Attack on Beirut?
By
FRANKLIN LAMB
This week Israel's Military Intelligence Chief, Major General Amos Yadlin
complained to the Israeli daily Haaretz that "Hezbollah proved that it was
the strongest power in Lebanon... stronger than the Lebanese and it had
wanted to take the government it could have done it," He said Hezbollah,
continued to pose a "significant" threat to Israel as its rockets could
reach a large part of Israeli territory."
Yadlin was putting it mildly.
But what Intelligence Chief Yadlin did not reveal to the Israeli public was
just how "significant" but also "immediate" the Hezbollah threat was on May
11. Nor was he willing to divulge the fact that he received information via
US and French channels that if the planned attack on Lebanon's capitol went
forward that Tel Aviv was subject, in the view of the US intelligence
community to "approximately 600 Hezbollah rockets in the first 24 hours in
retaliation and at least that number on the following day".
The Israeli Intel Chief also declined to reveal that despite Israel's recent
psyche-war camping about various claimed missile shields "the State of
Israel is perfecting", that this claim is being ridiculed at the Pentagon.
"Israel will not achieve an effective shield against the current generation
of rockets, even assuming no technological improvements in the current
rockets aimed at it, for another 20 years. And that assumes the US will
continue to fund their research and development for the hoped for shields"
according to Pentagon, US Senate Intelligence Committee, and very well
informed Lebanese sources.
The planned attack on Beirut
According to US Senate Intelligence Committee sources, the Bush
administration initially green lighted the intended May 11 Israel
'demonstration of solidarity with the pro-Bush administration militias, some
with which Israel has maintained ties since the days of Bashir Gemayal and
Ariel Sharon.
In the end, "the Bush administration got cold feet", a Congressional source
revealed. So did Israel.
Israel was not willing to proceed with the original Bush Administration idea
which was to have Bush attend the May 15 Israel anniversary celebrations
following the Israeli attack meant to hit Hezbollah hard, and give Bush the
credit for coming to the dangerous region. The message was to be that Bush
comes to the rescue 'on horseback and leads the US Calvary charge straight
out of a B western movie where the bugle would sound and flag would be
unfurled and the white hat good guys would show their stuff before riding
into the sunset and back to Texas, leaving the results to the likely Obama
administration to sort out.
The plan involved Israeli air strikes on South and West Beirut in support of
forces it was assured would be able to surprise and resist Hezbollah and
sustain a powerful offensive for 48 hours.
Also presumably disturbing to Israel was the report it received that
Hezbollah "had once again in all probability hacked its "secure" military
intelligence communications and the fear that the information would be
shared with others.
The Hezbollah rout of the militias in West Beirut plus the fear of
retaliation on Tel Aviv, ruining 60th anniversary celebrations, forced
cancellation of the supportive attack.
Israel limited its actions to sending two F-15's and two F-16's into as far
North as Tyre, one more of literally hundreds of violations of Lebanese
airspace, sovereignty and SCR 1701.
Clearly frustrated, Cabinet Minister Meir Sheetrit said Israel should not
yet take any action now, but warned" those things could change if Hezbollah
takes over Lebanon." a few minutes earlier he had declared that Hezbollah
had done just that and had treated the Lebanese army as a doormat.
Later in the Sunday cabinet meeting, Minister Ami Ayalon called for an
emergency meeting of the political-security cabinet to discuss "the ongoing
crisis in Lebanon and why Israel was not assisting friendly forces."
Minister Yitzhak Cohen (Shas) said that "Israel must immediately ask the
[United Nations] Security Council to hold renewed discussions over
resolution 1701." The minister was referring to the resolution that stopped
the Israeli actions against Lebanon during the 34-day between in 2006,
maintaining a fragile cease-fire.
Finally Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert informed Israeli supporters in
Lebanon, through the media, and presumbly other means that" Israel was
following the violence in Lebanon closely, but would refrain from
intervening. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai told Army Radio Sunday
that Israel was prepared for the possibility that the situation in Lebanon
will deteriorate into another civil war (meaning future opportunities for
Israeli influence and interventon in Lebanon) and that the current fighting
could end with a Hezbollah takeover of the government. "We need to keep our
eyes peeled and be especially sensitive regarding all that is happening
there," Vilnai told Army Radio.
The Bush administration, also disappointed, switched tactics and is opting
for domination of the narrative of the fairly complicated events of the past
week and using their media and confessional allies to launch a media blitz
(minus Future TV for a few days} to flood the airways with:
7 Hezbollah staged a coup d'itat. Even Israel, if not the Bush
administration, concedes Hezbollah has no interest in taking over the
Government. (One observer, paraphrasing Winston Churchill's comment,
deadpanned, "Some Hezbollah Coup! Some Hezbollah Etat!")
7 Hezbollah brought it forces from the South and occupied West Beirut:
Hezbollah not only did not bring their forces from the South to Beirut
(rather they remained on alert for an Israel attack down South)
7 Hezbollah broke its pledge not to use Resistance arms against Lebanese
militias and shot up West Beirut.
The facts are very different when viewed close up on the streets here.
When the Lebanese Resistance took the decision during the early hours of
Friday morning to engage in civil disobedience, it delayed its actions so as
not to preempt the Labor movement strike for higher wages which it
supported. When the marching Strikers were prevented from moving into West
Beirut the Opposition extended its civil disobedience manifestation.
Various militias, including the smartly outfitted Hariri "Secure Plus" with
its distinctive maroon tee-shirts and beige trousers, (now know locally by
some as "Secure Minus") a hoped for future Blackwater operation in Lebanon
disintegrated surprisingly quickly because many of its green recruits
brought down from Tripoli felt misled and betrayed regarding their job
description as they were handed weapons an instructed to fight Hezbollah.
Snipers from anti-Opposition factions killed civilians from rooftops in
Beirut trying to ignite a civil war.
Hezbollah, acting in self defense, according to various officials, quickly
clamped down on the trouble makers, took control of the streets, within
hours handed them over to the army, and virtually evacuated West Beirut,
retaining one position near Bay Rocks manned by unarmed representatives.
Meanwhile the Hariri influence has been greatly weekend in Akkar near the
Palestinian Refugee camp of Nahr al Bared and in the Tripoli area. According
to some political analysts, including, Fida'a Ittani, a regular columnist
for the independent pro-opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar, wrote on May 14, the
Future Movement, defeated in Beirut, no longer has any serious influence in
the north.
Several Salafi al Qaeda admiring movements are present in Lebanon and like
Fatah Islam's declaration this week that they will fight for the Sunnis,
they vary in their attitudes from silent opposition to Future leader Saad
Al-Hariri to fully supporting him as the leader of the Sunnis. These groups
are valued by certain 'leaders' in Lebanon because are the only ones with
coherent structures at the ideological, political, technical, and field
levels.
Judging from Saad Hariri's confused statements at his subsequent news
conference and statements by other parties, the bitterness of promised but
unforthcoming assistance was evident.
For two days following the debacle of his forces imploding the head of the
Future Movement said nothing. Finally on the 14th he broke his silence. The
Halba massacre, committed by Hariri's Mustakbal militiamen which brutally
and barbarically murdered 11 people from the opposition did not seem worthy
of discussion as he spoke. In a press conference on Tuesday, Hariri simply
ignored what all the Lebanese had seen on TV from weapons, ammunition and
alcohol found in Future movement offices, and instead listed a series of
delusions. "We awaited an open war on Israel, and yet here is an open war on
Beirut and its people" he stated. Some interpreted this rather odd statement
either as a subconscious slip of the tongue on Hariri's part expressing his
frustration that the Israelis help did not arrive or that his reported
earlier incoherent state persisted.
Hariri's original speech was so confused that the Saudi channel al-Arabiyya
stopped broadcasting it and only read excerpts from what he said, without
showing his recorded speech.
When American criticism resumed, and Hezbollah fighters withdrew from the
alleys surrounding his house, Hariri was urged to stand up and speak again,
this time with a stronger tone, saying "This has been decided by the Iranian
and Syrian regimes that wanted to play a political game in Lebanon's
streets. For us nothing has changed. We will not negotiate with someone
having a pistol pointed to our heads."
Anger at the Bush administration and Israel by certain warlords in Lebanon
must feel much like the frustration of Secure Minus personal who rushed from
Tripoli and felt misled, abandoned and cheated.
Franklin Lamb can be reached at fpl...@gmail.com
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