Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War
Tim Murphy
Global Research,
www.globalresearch.ca
30th March 2007
Strategic Culture Foundation (Russia)
Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War
Analysis of the current state of the conflict with Iran shows that the world
faces the possibility of a new war...
by
General Leonid Ivashov
The US and its allies started the psychological preparation of world public
opinion for the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons to resolve
'the Iranian problem'. The US propaganda machine is working hard to create
the impression that a 'surgically precise' use of the nuclear weapon with
only limited consequences is possible. However, this has been known to be
untrue since the 1945 US nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
After the very first nuclear strike, it will become totally impossible to
prevent the use of all of the available means of mass destruction. In the
situation of a mass extermination of their nations, the conflicting sides
will resort to whatever means they have without limitations. Therefore, not
only the nuclear arsenals of various countries, including those whose
nuclear status is not recognized officially, will come into play. No doubt,
chemical and biological warfare (and, generally, any poisonous substances),
which can be produced on the basis of minimal industrial and economic
resources, will be used.
Currently, one can assert that peace and mankind are in great danger.
Consider the military-technical aspect of the situation. Practically, the
operation's objective declared by the US - destroying some 1,500 targets on
the territory of Iran - cannot be accomplished by the forces already amassed
for the mission. This objective can only be met if tactical nuclear
munitions are used.
An examination of the military-political aspect of the matter reveals even
more significant facts. The attack on Iran is not planned to include a
ground offensive. Strikes on selected military and industrial installations
can cause a severe damage to the Iranian defense potential and economy.
Casualties are likely to be substantial, but not catastrophic from the
military point of view. At the same time, it is impossible to gain control
of the territory of a country as large as Iran without a ground operation.
The planned offensive will entail a consolidation of forces not only in
Iran, but also in other Muslim countries and among the public throughout the
world. The support for the country suffering from the US-Israeli aggression
will soar. Certainly, Washington is aware that the result will be not the
strengthening but the loss of US positions in the world. Consequently, the
goal of the US attack against Iran has to be seen in a different light. The
nuclear offensive must boost the use of nuclear blackmail in global politics
by the US and fundamentally transform the world order.
Further evidence of the radicalization of the goals of the US and its allies
is available. The early 2007 leaks, which exposed Israel's plans to use
three nukes against Iran, were quite dangerous for a country in a hostile
environment, but certainly they were deliberate. They meant that the
decision on the character of Israel's activity had already been made, and
all that remained to be done was to influence public opinion accordingly.
The pretext for the operation against Iran does not appear serious. Judging
from both the technical and the political points of view, there is no
possibility of it developing nuclear weapons in the near future.
One must remember that allegations of Iraq's possessing weapons of mass
destruction were used by the US as a pretext for the war against the
country. As a result, Iraq was devastated, and the civilian death toll rose
to hundreds of thousands, but no evidence for the claims had ever been
discovered.
The really important question is not whether Iran is capable of making
nuclear weapons. The only function of small stockpiles of nuclear weapons
not backed by various forms of support is that of containment. The threat of
a retaliation strike can stop any aggressor. As for attacking other
countries and winning a nuclear war in the situation of a conflict with a
coalition of major powers, this would require a potential that Iran neither
has nor is going to have in the foreseeable future. The allegations that
Iran can become a nuclear aggressor are absurd. Anyone having at least some
theoretical knowledge of military affairs must understand this.
What is the real reason why the US is unleashing this military conflict?
The activities having consequences of global proportions can only be
intended to deal with a global problem. This problem itself is by no means
something secret - it is the possibility of a crash of the global financial
system based on the US dollar. Currently the mass of US currency exceeds
the total worth of US assets by more than a factor of ten. Everything in
the US - industry, buildings, high-tech, and so on - has been mortgaged more
than ten times all over the world. A debt of such proportions will never be
repaid - it can only be relieved.
The dollar amounts on the accounts of individuals, organizations, and state
treasuries are a virtual reality. These records are not secured by products,
valuables or anything that exists in reality.
Writing-off this US indebtedness to the rest of the world would turn the
majority of its population into deceived depositors. It would be the end of
the well-established rule of the golden calf. The significance of the coming
events is truly epic. This is why the aggressor ignores the global
catastrophic consequences of its offensive. The bankrupt 'global bankers'
need a force major event of global proportions to get out of the situation.
The solution is already in the plans. The US has nothing to offer the rest
of the world to save the declining dollar except for military operations
like the ones in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. But even these local
conflicts only yield short-term effects. Something a lot greater is needed,
and the need is urgent. The moment is drawing closer when the financial
crisis will make the world realize that all of the US assets, all of its
industrial, technological, and other potentials do not rightfully belong to
the country. Then, it must be confiscated to compensate the victims, and the
rights of ownership of everything bought for dollars all over the world -
everything drawn from the wealth of various nations - are to be revised.
What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything
seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed. Its involvement in a war
with Iran - especially in a nuclear war - is bound to trigger a global
catastrophe. The statehoods of Israel and Iran are based on the countries'
official religions. A military conflict between Israel and Iran will
immediately evolve into a religious one, a conflict between Judaism and
Islam. Due to the presence of numerous Jewish and Muslim populations in the
developed countries, this would make a global bloodbath inevitable. All of
the active forces of most of the countries of the world would end up
fighting, with almost no room for neutrality left. Judging by the
increasingly massive acquisitions of the residential housing for the Israeli
citizens, especially in Russia and Ukraine, a lot of people already have an
idea of what the future holds. However, it is hard to imagine a quiet heaven
where one might hide from the coming doom. Forecasts of the territorial
distribution of the fighting, the quantities and the efficiency of the
armaments involved, the profound character of the underlying roots of the
conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that
this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.
So far, the response of the world's major political players to the
developments gives no cause for optimism. The inconsequent UN resolutions
concerning Iran, the attempts to appease the aggressor who no longer
disguises his intentions are reminiscent of the Munich Pact on the eve of
WWII. The intense shuttle diplomacy focusing on all sorts of international
problems except for the main one discussed above is also indicative of the
problem. This is a usual practice on the eve of a war, aiming to provide for
alliances with third-party countries or to ensure their neutrality. Such
politics seeks to avert or soften the first strikes, which would be the most
sudden and devastating ones.
Is it possible to prevent the bloodshed?
The only efficient argument that might stop the aggressors is the threat of
their total global isolation for instigating a nuclear war. The
implementation of the scenario described above can be made impossible by a
complete absence of allies for the US-Israeli tandem, combined with loud
public protests in the countries. Therefore, these days a definite and
uncompromising stance of country leaders, governments, politicians, public
figures, religious leaders, scientists, and artists with respect to the
prepared nuclear aggression would be an invaluable service to mankind.
The coordinated public activities must be organized with the promptness
adequate to the war-time conditions. The forces of aggression have already
been amassed and concentrated at the starting positions in the state of full
combat readiness. The US military do not make it a secret that everything
can be a matter of weeks or even days. There are indirect indications that
the US will launch a nuclear strike on Iran already in April, 2007. After
the very first nuclear blast, mankind will find itself in an entirely new
world, an absolutely inhumane one. The chances to prevent this outcome must
be used completely.
--
General Leonid Ivashov is the vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical
affairs. He was the chief of the department for General affairs in the
Soviet Union's ministry of Defense, secretary of the Council of defense
ministers of the Community of independant states (CIS), chief of the
Military cooperation department at the Russian federation's Ministry of
defense and Joint chief of staff of the Russian armies. General Ivashof is a
frequent contributor to Global Research.
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ri...@math.missouri.edu
by General Leonid Ivashov
Global Research, April 9, 2007
Strategic Culture Foundation - 2007-03-30
Analysis of the current state of the conflict with Iran shows that
the world faces the possibility of a new war...
General Ivashov
General Leonid Ivashov is the vice-president of the Academy on
geopolitical affairs. He was the chief of the department for General
affairs in the Soviet Union's ministry of Defense, secretary of the
Council of defense ministers of the Community of independant states
(CIS), chief of the Military cooperation department at the Russian
federation's Ministry of defense and Joint chief of staff of the
Russian armies. General Ivashof is a frequent contributor to Global
Research.
Global Research Articles by Leonid Ivashov
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