DATE=1/25/96
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-191782
TITLE=LATAM OUTLOOK
BYLINE=ANDREW BAIRD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO:  A TOP INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OFFICIAL SAYS THAT THE LATIN
AMERICAN REGION IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE ECONOMICALLY, DESPITE THE
STRUGGLES OF COUNTRIES SUCH AS MEXICO, ARGENTINA, AND URUGUAY.  
V-O-A'S ANDREW BAIRD HAS THIS REPORT.

TEXT:  IN A SPEECH THURSDAY IN WASHINGTON, ENRIQUE IGLESIAS, HEAD
OF THE INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, OR I-A-D-B, GAVE AN
UPBEAT ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FOR LATIN AMERICA AS A WHOLE IN 1996.
MR. IGLESIAS SAID THAT MAINLY BECAUSE OF PROBLEMS IN MEXICO,
ARGENTINA, AND URUGUAY, GROWTH OF THE REGION IN 1995 WOULD
PROBABLY BE ABOUT POINT-SIX PERCENT ANNUALLY, COMPARED TO AROUND
FOUR-AND-A-HALF PERCENT IN 1994.  BUT HE SUGGESTED THAT GROWTH
WOULD PICK UP AGAIN AS MEXICO AND OTHER NATIONS REGAINED THEIR
FOOTING.  MEXICO, HE SAID, HAD A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING
THE THREE PERCENT GROWTH RATE TARGETED BY THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT
FOR 1996.

IN ADDITION, HE SAID THAT DESPITE SETBACKS SUCH AS MEXICO'S 1995
ECONOMIC CRISIS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO THE REGION IN 1995
HAD REMAINED AT 1994 LEVELS AND MAY PICK UP THIS YEAR.  LONG-TERM
INVESTORS, HE SAID, CONTINUED TO RECOGNIZE THAT MANY NATIONS IN
THE REGION REMAINED AMONG THE MOST PROMISING EMERGING MARKETS.  
THE I-A-D-B PRESIDENT NOTED THAT BRAZIL WAS UNDERGOING WHAT
APPEARED TO BE AN EFFECTIVE STABILIZATION PROGRAM, AND THAT OTHER
COUNTRIES IN THE REGION, INCLUDING PERU AND CHILE, HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO SUSTAIN HEALTHY GROWTH DESPITE A SHARP DECLINE IN SHORT-TERM
CAPITAL FLOWS TO THE REGION.

MEXICO'S CRISIS, HE SAID, DID POINT UP SEVERAL PROBLEMS THAT NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED.  THESE INCLUDE PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO HIGH
TRADE DEFICITS RELATIVE TO THE SIZE OF LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES;
DETERMINING THE NATURE AND AMOUNT OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO A GIVEN
COUNTRY; KEEPING THE FINANCIAL MARKETS ABREAST OF ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES; RAISING SAVINGS RATES IN
THOSE COUNTRIES; AND CREATING MULTILATERAL FUNDS AS CUSHIONS
WHICH CAN BE USED TO STABILIZE AN ECONOMY IN CRISIS SUCH AS
MEXICO FACED IN 1995. (SIGNED)

NEB/AB/LWM

25-Jan-96 5:47 PM EST (2247 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America