Fwd: Supplemental on the Coup in Honduras [November 2, 2009]

[Julio Huato]

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From: "Center for Economic and Policy Research" <la...@cepr.net>
Date: Nov 2, 2009 5:51 PM
Subject: Supplemental on the Coup in Honduras [November 2, 2009]
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CEPR
Supplemental on the Coup in Honduras
November 2, 2009

Honduras
US labor official, Chile's Lagos on Honduras panel. AP.
CEAL asks int'l community to watch for agreement's implementation in Honduras. Xinhua.
Zelaya upbeat on Honduras deal. Aljazeera.
Congress considers Honduras deal. BBC.
Q+A - Honduran rivals reach deal on crisis but now what? Reuters.
Honduran Businesses Still Wait to Heal. New York Times.
Zelaya, Micheletti Begin to Disagree About Honduras Accord. Latin American Herald Tribune.

Analysis
Honduras: Solution or Stall? The Nation.

Honduras [contents]

US labor official, Chile's Lagos on Honduras panel
OLGA R. RODRIGUEZ. AP. Nov 1, 2009.

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras - The U.S. secretary of labor and a former Chilean president were named Sunday to a commission tasked with monitoring the creation of a power-sharing government in Honduras, under a U.S.-brokered agreement to end the nation's 4-month-old political crisis.

Jose Miguel Insulza, the secretary-general of the Organization of American States, said Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and ex-President Ricardo Lagos will arrive in the Central American country Tuesday, accompanied by high-level OAS officials.

Representatives from Honduras' two major political parties will round out the four-member commission, which is also tasked with ensuring that all sides recognize November presidential elections and that the military is put under the command of electoral officials to safeguard the vote's legitimacy.

As part of the accord struck Friday, the commission will monitor the creation of a truth commission assigned to investigate the coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya, who was rousted from his bed by soldiers and flown to Costa Rica on June 28.

Congressional President Jose Alfredo Saavedra is expected to receive the accord Tuesday. He will then have to call lawmakers back into session to debate the measure.

If lawmakers OK the deal, it would win international recognition for the Nov. 29 vote after many nations warned they would not accept the outcome unless the coup was reversed.

Diplomats have urged lawmakers not to delay, and Zelaya's supporters said they would rally outside Congress on Monday to pressure lawmakers.

"We will be there until we achieve our goal" of seeing Zelaya restored to power, said Juan Barahona, who has been leading protests against the coup.

Zelaya has been inside the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa since Sept. 21, when he made a surprise return to the Honduran capital.
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CEAL asks int'l community to watch for agreement's implementation in Honduras
Xinhua. Nov 2, 2009.

   TEGUCIGALPA, Nov. 1 (Xinhua) -- The Enterprise Council for Latin America (CEAL) on Sunday asked the international community to keep a close eye on the implementation of the political agreement reached in Honduras.

   "We hope and trust the international community will be observant and watch for both parties to completely fulfill each one of the points in the agreement," the CEAL said in a communique.

   On Friday, the representatives of Honduras' de facto Leader Roberto Micheletti and those of ousted President Manuel Zelaya signed an agreement for the Honduran Congress to decide whether Zelaya will be restored to power.

   The Congress will announce its decision after taking account of the opinion of the Honduran Supreme Court of Justice, according to the agreement.

   In case of any violation of the agreement, the CEAL will demand the "U.S. government, the Organization of American States, the United Nations and the international community in general immediately condemn those actions and demand the fulfillment of the agreement."

   The CEAL hopes the international community would support the country's elections on Nov. 29 and recognize election results.

   The agreement to settle the political crisis in Honduras was submitted to Congress on Friday by the negotiating commissions of the de facto Honduran government and of ousted President Manuel Zelaya.
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Zelaya upbeat on Honduras deal
Aljazeera. Nov 1, 2009.

The proposed deal that would return Zelaya to power still needs to be agreed by congress [AFP]

Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president, has said he is hopeful that his country's political crisis will soon be over.

Speaking to Al Jazeera in an interview broadcast on Sunday, Zelaya called for congress to "reverse the coup" that forced him from power.

 "If the national congress decides to maintain the coup the crisis will continue. If the congress reverses the coup, the crisis will be over," he said by telephone from the Honduran capital.

Zelaya, who was removed from office in June, has been holed up in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa since he sneaked back into the country over a month ago.

His supporters and those of the de facto government have been at odds for four months, but an agreement on Friday raised the possibility that Zelaya could be returned to power ahead of elections in November, as long as congress agrees.

'Path to succeed'

Zelaya told Al Jazeera that he was satisfied with the proposed agreement, which he hopes will see him restored to the presidency before the vote on November 29.

"It's a deal that's on a path to succeed," he said.

"Roberto Michiletti [the de facto president of Honduras] is the president of congress and he is the one who signed the accord."

Zelaya's comments came as Hilda Solis, the US secretary of labour, and Ricardo Lago, a former Chilean president, were named to head a commission which is charged with monitoring the creation of a power-sharing government in Honduras.

Jose Miguel Insulza, the secretary-general of the Organisation of American States, said on Sunday that the representatives will go to Honduras on Tuesday, accompanied by senior OAS officials.

However, there is confusion over when Honduras' congress will meet to sign off on the deal between Zelaya and the de facto government.

Comments by Arturo Corrales, a negotiator for the interim government, soon after the proposed agreement was struck suggested that congress might not discuss the issue before the elections.

No date has been set for congress to meet on the issue, but the earliest the deal could be debated is Tuesday, legislators said.

Monday is a holiday in Honduras and many legislators are busy campaigning for the upcoming vote that will also elect a successor to Zelaya.

Political standoff

Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera's Latin America editor, said Zelaya was relying on the political opposition's increasing popularity in the build up to the elections to push congress into agreeing the deal.

"I'm surprised that he's that optimistic, but there is a calculation here - he's depending on the fact his opponents in congress, the opposition party, are leading very substantially in the polls for the up coming election," she said.

"The calculation is that unless President Zelaya is reinstated, his supporters will boycott those elections. That will take away legitimacy from those elections and it will make it very difficult for the next government to govern without instability."

Many countries have warned they would not accept the elections if the June coup is not undone - suggesting that if congress approves the pact to reinstate Zelaya, it would win international recognition for the elections.

Zelaya was forced from power on June 28, the same day that he planned to hold a non-binding referendum on the constitution, a move that had been declared illegal by the Honduran congress and supreme court.

Opponents of Zelaya say that the public vote was aimed at winning support for an extension to presidential term limits, claims that he has denied.
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Congress considers Honduras deal
BBC. Oct 31, 2009.

The Honduran Congress has been asked to approve a deal which might lead to the return to power of ousted President Manual Zelaya.

The accord has been signed by teams representing Mr Zelaya and the interim government which came to power in June.

The deal would create a power-sharing government and require the bitter political rivals to recognise the result of November's presidential poll.

Meanwhile, the US is lifting visa curbs on Honduras after Friday's agreement.

The sanction was imposed amid international condemnation of Mr Zelaya's removal.

No timetable

But officials said the US embassy would start issuing visas again on Monday.

I do believe this agreement will bring a solution

The president was forced out of the country on 28 June.

His critics said he was seeking to amend the constitution to remove the current one-term limit on serving as president, and pave the way for his re-election.

The BBC's Central America correspondent Stephen Gibbs says the Honduran congress - which in June voted to remove Mr Zelaya from power - now looks set to be instrumental in bringing him back.

It will vote after the Supreme Court gives a non-binding opinion on the deal, news agencies report.

No clear timetable has been laid out for when the vote will actually happen, but the ousted president has indicated that he expects the entire process to take about a week.
Mr Zelaya said the agreement would restore democracy to Honduras

Mr Zelaya is making it clear that until every detail of his reinstatement has been pinned down, he will not be leaving the capital's Brazilian embassy, where he is currently sheltering, our correspondent says.

Many Hondurans are, however, already expressing relief that the crisis which has overshadowed their country for the last four months might almost be over.

Our correspondent says the key detail of the arrangement is that Mr Zelaya comes back to power, so that Honduras' scheduled November elections - to decide who will replace him - are therefore deemed valid.

But it is not perhaps the comeback which President Zelaya once promised, our correspondent adds.

From exile he had suggested that a popular uprising would restore him to office.

In the end, it seems that more mundane economic realities, and some straight talking by American diplomats, persuaded the government which forced him out, to relent, our correspondent says.
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Q+A - Honduran rivals reach deal on crisis but now what?
Reuters. Nov 1, 2009.

REUTERS - Honduras is on the verge of ending a four-month political crisis after rival camps cut a deal that could return ousted President Manuel Zelaya to power and earn international support for a Nov. 29 election.

Buckling under pressure from U.S. diplomats, negotiators for Zelaya and the de facto leader Roberto Micheletti who replaced him, agreed to put an end to Central America's worst political turmoil in two decades.

Here are some questions and answers about the agreement:

WHAT DID THE TWO SIDES AGREE ON?

The deal leaves it up to the Honduran Congress to decide whether Zelaya, toppled in a June 28 coup, can be restored to serve the last few months of his term but legislators will wait for an opinion from the Supreme Court.

The main points are based on an earlier proposal by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. It creates a national unity government to be formed by Nov. 5, invites foreign observers to guarantee free and fair elections and forms a truth commission to investigate the events of recent months.

It asks foreign governments to reverse punitive measures, like the suspension of aid and travel visas, after Honduras was isolated to put pressure on the coup leaders.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

No date has been set for Congress to convene to decide the thorny issue of Zelaya's return or for the Supreme Court to give its official position on the legality of returning Zelaya to power. Some lawmakers told Reuters they would abide by the court's position on the issue.

It was the Supreme Court that ordered the army to topple Zelaya in June and Congress that appointed Micheletti as caretaker leader. A Supreme Court official who asked not to be identified told Reuters the judges were unlikely to change their stance on the leftist logging magnate and would likely say that bringing him back is illegal.

Zelaya was ousted after he organized a vote to gauge support for a constitutional change that critics said would allow presidential re-election, a charge he denies.

At the same time, Honduras is under pressure to appease those who want Zelaya returned, especially after Washington hailed this week's accord, and Micheletti may want to limit internal strife that could hurt his party in this month's election.

Zelaya split his Liberal Party by cozying up to socialist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Micheletti represents the more conservative wing of the Liberals.

The opposition National Party is leading in polls and may decide it is politically expedient to reinstate still-popular Zelaya and win favor in the international community.

WHAT IF CONGRESS APPROVES ZELAYA'S RETURN?

If Congress votes to restore Zelaya, it will be seen as a major diplomatic victory for U.S. President Barack Obama, who is trying to improve relations with Latin America.

In Washington, a resolution of the Honduras crisis could clear the way for U.S. Senate confirmation of important Latin American posts in the Obama administration, blocked by Republicans who opposed support for Zelaya.

Suspended aid would start flowing again, a relief for the impoverished coffee-exporting nation, and the door would open for foreign observers to monitor the election and give the new government a much-needed stamp of approval.

Zelaya would return to office with limited powers since the deal turns control of the army over to the elections tribunal ahead of the vote and would force him to participate in a power-sharing deal with his rivals.

WHAT IF CONGRESS VOTES NOT TO ALLOW ZELAYA BACK?

A failure by Congress to ratify the main sticking point in the hard-sought pact could be considered a failure not only for the United States but for regional governments like Brazil, which went out on a limb by sheltering Zelaya in its embassy in Honduras since he snuck back into the country in September.

International recognition of the election might be called into question and pro-Zelaya street protests could worsen. Security forces, which have used tear gas and rubber bullets on marches in the past, could step up controls in response.

Human rights groups have documented major abuses by the de facto government, including deaths, heavily criticizing Micheletti's decision to curb civil liberties and temporarily shut two opposition news outlets.

(Reporting by Sean Mattson and Gustavo Palencia in Tegucigalpa; Writing by Mica Rosenberg in Mexico City; Editing by John O'Callaghan)
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Honduran Businesses Still Wait to Heal
BLAKE SCHMIDT. New York Times. November 1, 2009.

COPÁN, Honduras - On the morning that the Honduran president was deposed, Flavia Cueva roused a wedding party of 30 and whisked them out of her jungle eco-resort. Still hazy from the previous night's party, which involved a mariachi band, fireworks and a shaman-led wedding ceremony held above ancient Mayan limestone ruins, the partyers made a hasty exit.

For Ms. Cueva, a Honduran-American who has spent the past decade turning her parents' cattle ranch into a getaway featuring yoga classes, horseback rides and Mayan food for a modern palate, the political turmoil in Honduras has had a calamitous effect on bookings.

"It's taken me 10 years to put this place on the map, one step at a time," she said, sipping wine on her veranda overlooking the ruins at Copán. "This has been the kiss of death."

Whether a deal reached last week between the ousted president, Manuel Zelaya, and his de facto successor, Roberto Micheletti, resolves the four-month-old political standoff remains to be seen, but the economic damage has already been done, isolating a country that had only recently drawn international investment and tourism.

The pristine beaches and Mayan ruins of Honduras brought 1.5 million tourists to the country last year. But arrivals have dropped by as much as 70 percent since Mr. Zelaya's ouster on June 28, according to Ricardo Martínez, who served as tourism minister in the Zelaya government.

Honduras was once the realm of American banana barons who overthrew governments to secure better tax treatment. More recently, it was a training and supply base for United States-backed contra rebels fighting a cold war proxy battle in Nicaragua.

As the cold war ended, Honduras managed to put years of military rule behind it and became known for its relative political stability, drawing foreign investors in recent years to buy beachfront property, start manufacturing businesses and build hotels along the country's Caribbean coast, a world-class spot for scuba diving. The expatriate community has expanded from a core of aid workers, missionaries and military veterans to include cigar-puffing retirees, Spanish language students, entrepreneurs and real estate investors.

The American Embassy in the capital, Tegucigalpa, says there are 15,000 Americans registered as living in Honduras but as many as 30,000 counting long-term tourists, people with dual nationality and businesspeople living in the country.

Mr. Zelaya's removal and the international condemnation it has drawn have managed to isolate the country again. Foreign business owners in Honduras have tended to support Mr. Micheletti, who replaced Mr. Zelaya, even while acknowledging that sending Mr. Zelaya into exile may have been illegal. But they agree wholeheartedly that the country's turmoil is hurting their wallets.

Chris and Will Haughey, brothers from St. Louis, picked Honduras as the place to open a socially conscious certified wood toy factory because of its timber-rich jungles, tax-free manufacturing areas and tariff exemptions under the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a trade deal with the United States. Their idea was to market their magnetic wood block sets to business executives as desk toys and to parents as an eco-friendly alternative to Legos. Despite the country's bureaucracy, they considered it a more politically stable place than neighboring Nicaragua or El Salvador.

But they had not factored the ouster of a president into their business plans.

Chris Haughey, a Stanford-educated engineer who fell for Honduras while volunteering at a shelter for street boys, spent a recent morning negotiating with a group of rock-wielding Zelaya supporters to let him through their roadblock on his way to work. As the brothers tried to meet orders before the holidays, they lost workdays as government curfews kept their employees holed up in their homes.

"It's just frustrating," said Mr. Haughey, who abandoned his goal to open the plant in August as the political meltdown in June added new delays to Honduras's already formidable red tape. He now says he will try to open next month.

Daniel O'Connor, an investment consultant who moved to Honduras from Florida to manage one of the capital's most lavish hotels in the 1990s, the Honduras Maya, said the political turmoil added insult to injury for investors already crunched by the economic slump.

"It's the perfect storm," he said. A handful of luxury resorts on the islands off the Honduran coast have halted construction since Mr. Zelaya was removed, he said, blaming news media coverage of protest violence for making the country appear to be a war zone.

"My friends back home are surprised we're not hunkered down with six months of food supply and weapons," he said, sipping a rum and Coke at the Intercontinental on a recent afternoon. A fierce critic of Mr. Zelaya, Mr. O'Connor had set up an information center at the hotel to provide journalists with information to justify the leader's removal.

Business owners are hopeful that the deal reached Thursday, which may return Mr. Zelaya to office before the end of his term in January and which still must be approved by the country's Congress, will restore a sense of normalcy here.

But any economic rebound has not happened yet. Ms. Cueva, the eco-resort owner, has been laying off workers and cutting back the hours of those who remain. To reduce costs, she is unplugging freezers and limiting travels to town for supplies.

"I do believe this is bigger than all of us," Ms. Cueva said, lighting a cigarette on a Guatemalan candle as the Copán ruins below faded into dusk. "This is a 21st-century socialist revolution."
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Zelaya, Micheletti Begin to Disagree About Honduras Accord
Crisis Redux. Latin American Herald Tribune. Nov 2, 2009.

The ink is barely dry on the accord to resolve the political crisis in Honduras caused by Zelaya's June 28 removal, but deposed President Mel Zelaya and current President Roberto Micheletti are already beginning to differ on the details of the pact, as Zelaya's ultimate goal of a return to power looks more and more doubtful.

TEGUCIGALPA ? Barely two days after agreeing to an accord to resolve the political crisis in Honduras caused by his June 28 removal, deposed President Mel Zelaya and current President Roberto Micheletti are beginning to differ on the details of the pact.

The crux of the disagreement is once again the restitution to power of the ousted Zelaya, who for almost a week blocked the talks until last week a U.S. delegation and the Organization of American States managed to get the two sides to agree on a way forward.

The Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord establishes that: "Both negotiating committees (those of Zelaya and Micheletti) have decided, respectively, that Congress ... will decide ... with respect to 'restoring the head of the Executive Branch to his status prior to June 28,'" the date of the coup that toppled Zelaya.

Zelaya said in a telephone conversation from the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, where he has been holed up since sneaking back into the country on Sept. 21, that this means "asking Congress with regard to reversing the situation, that is, to tell them: 'Sirs, with all respect, return to the State of Law and (abandon) illegality."

"That is a request that both parties have made," he added.

However, the current Honduras government, in a document prepared on the pact distributed to reporters, said that the agreement "makes no type of recommendation about what decision the Congress should make."

For Zelaya, this interpretation would be "a dirty game and an absurd game, not very intelligent" and "it would put them (the de facto authorities) in a very bad position before the international community."

"It seems to me that the spirit of the accord is completely clear. The positions of the international community, the Honduran people and (me) are completely clear and now it is the responsibility of Congress to reverse the coup or continue with the coup," he said.

"If the coup d'état is not reversed, then the accord is going to break down, the accord would be null and the accord logically would be an absurdity," he declared.

Zelaya currently enjoys the support of only about a fifth of the legislators, and Congress had before his ouster already opened an investigation into whether he was mentally fit to govern, voted to disapprove his violations of the Constitution and replaced him with Micheletti after he was ousted. The Supreme Court, which will also weigh-in with an opinion, has already rejected Zelaya's return, saying he was replaced as president on June 28 because he violated the Constitution.

The deposed leader also believes that his restitution must be accomplished before next Thursday, the deadline for the installation of a "Government of Unity and National Reconciliation," according to the accord, which does not specify who should preside over that prospective government.

But the document distributed by the Micheletti government says that "with regard to the intervention by Congress ... in the matter of the reinstatement of Mr. Zelaya ... it only sets forth today's date (that is, last Friday, the day of the accord's signing) to introduce the request" to the legislature, but sets no deadline for a decision on the matter.In response to the stance of the deposed leader, the deputy foreign minister, Martha Alvarado, accused him of wanting to "destabilize" the elections scheduled for Nov. 29 and to be "putting the accord into a precarious" state.

"This bad interpretation that has been given to the dates is a very well-known tactic with the aim of destabilizing the electoral process," Alvarado said.

Meanwhile, former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos and U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis will be on the verification committee for the accord signed to resolve the crisis, and the pair will travel to the Central American country this week to begin their work, the OAS said Sunday.

Besides the two politicians, also comprising the committee will be Hondurans Jorge Reina and Arturo Corrales, who have been representing Zelaya and Micheletti, respectively, in the negotiations.

On Friday, the two sides signed the crucial accord to resolve the crisis.

The accord includes the creation of the government of national reconciliation and states that Congress will vote on whether or not to reinstate Zelaya in power.

One of the points in the accord stipulates that "two members of the international community and two members of the national community" will make up the verification committee.

On Sunday, OAS chief Jose Miguel Insulza announced that the two international members would be Lagos

and Solis, a U.S. citizen who is the daughter of Latino immigrants.

Insulza said that the pair will arrive in Tegucigalpa on Tuesday to meet with the committee's Honduran representatives, Reina and Corrales.

The international members will travel to Honduras accompanied by the secretary of political affairs for the OAS, Victor Rico, and a delegation of top officials from the organization.

The OAS has played an important role in the search for a solution to the crisis in Honduras, which it suspended from participation in the regional organization in response to the coup against Zelaya.

This measure, adopted in early July, is the most energetic such move to be made by the organization in the past 20 years.

Insulza said on Sunday that lifting the sanctions on Honduras is a matter that the OAS should take up, as was made clear at the meeting of the organization's Permanent Council meeting on Friday.

At that meeting, Bolivian representative Jose Pinelo proposed that the OAS hold an extraordinary general assembly meeting in Tegucigalpa on Nov. 16, before the elections, to discuss withdrawing the suspension of Honduras from the organization.

"The possibility that this meeting might be held on Nov. 16, once the accord is implemented, has been rather well-received among the members of the Permanent Council," Insulza said.

"It's very possible that it will happen in this way," he added.


Analysis [contents]

Honduras: Solution or Stall?
Greg Grandin. The Nation. October 30, 2009.

The Honduran crisis may soon be over. Maybe. The leader of the coup government, Roberto Micheletti, agreed to a nine-point plan to end the country's political impasse, brokered by Thomas Shannon, the former US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs and Barack Obama's yet-to-be-confirmed ambassador to Brazil. The deal would return Manuel Zelaya, the democratically elected president deposed in a military coup four months ago, to office; in exchange, the international community will end Honduras' diplomatic isolation and recognize upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for November 29.

     Greg Grandin: Hugo Chávez talks about his relationship with Barack Obama, the Honduran crisis, plans to extend the Pentagon's presence in Colombia, and domestic successes and challenges.

Hardliners in the coup government, however, see a loophole in the accords, which gives the Honduran National Congress the power to approve or reject Zelaya's return. And no sooner was the ink dry on the accord when a top Micheletti advisor, Marcia Facusse de Villeda, told Bloomberg News that "Zelaya won't be restored." In a barefaced admission that the coup government was trying to buy time, Facusse said that "just by signing this agreement we already have the recognition of the international community for the elections." Another Micheletti aide, Arturo Corrales, said that since the congress is not in session, no vote on the agreement could be scheduled until "after the elections."

But such a calculated reading of the agreement will not play well with most countries, including the United Nations, the Organization of American States, and the European Union, which have repeatedly called for restoration of Zelaya. Brazil--whose Tegucigalpa embassy has given Zelaya shelter since his dramatic surprise return to Honduras over a month ago--applauded Shannon's deal, yet made it clear Zelaya had to be reinstated. And in Honduras, the National Party, whose candidate is expected to win next month's vote, wants this crisis to be over. Its members in Congress may join with Liberal Party deputies loyal to Zelaya to approve the deal.

The accord leaves unresolved the issue of whether the widespread human rights violations that have taken place since the coup will be investigated and prosecuted, only vaguely rejecting an amnesty for "political crimes" and calling for the establishment of a truth commission. More than a dozen Zelaya supporters have been executed over the last four months. Security forces have illegally detained nearly 10,000 people; police and soldiers have beaten protesters and gang-raped women. And the very idea of a negotiated solution to the crisis grants legitimacy to those provoked it.

Still, if Zelaya were to be restored to the presidency, even just symbolically, to preside over the November elections and supervise a transfer of power to its winner, it would represent a significant victory for progressive forces in the hemisphere. Here's why:

1. The attempt by Micheletti and his backers--both in and out of Honduras--to justify the overthrow of Zelaya by claiming it was a constitutional transfer of power will have definitively failed. If this justification was allowed to go unchallenged, it would have set a dangerous precedent for the rest of Latin America.

2. Efforts to rally support for the coup under the banner of anti-leftism, or anti-Chavismo--much the way anti-communism served to unite conservatives during the Cold War--will likewise have failed.

3. It will confirm the political influence--and unity--of Latin America's progressive governments, particularly Brazil and Venezuela, which have taken the lead in demanding that the coup not stand--a position that aligned them with much of the rest of the world.

4. It will be an important push back for Republicans like South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and Otto Reich, who tried to use the crisis to push for a more hardline US policy against the left in Latin America. It is DeMint who has put the hold on Shannon's confirmation, as well as on the confirmation of Arturo Valenzuela, Obama's pick for Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs.

5. It will hopefully help the Obama administration realize that in many Latin American countries, there is no alternative to working with the left. In Honduras, the violence of the coup government, as well as the fact that the extended crisis smoked out its less than savory supporters, like Reich, awoke not too pleasant memories of the Cold War. Reich recently penned an essay urging Obama to replicate Ronald Reagan's successful Latin American policy, which the Iran-Contra alum believed paved the way for the fall of the Berlin Wall. Many, however, remember too well Reagan's patronage of death squads and torturers. And reports that Honduran planters were importing Colombian paramilitaries to protect their interests were not helping defenders of the coup make their case. As protests continued, it became clear to all who paid attention that it was the good guys - trade unionists, peasants, Native Americans, environmentalists, feminists, gay and lesbian activists, and progressive priests - who were demanding the return of Zelaya.

6. Zelaya's return would be a huge boost for those good guys, who are largely responsible for the inability of the coup government to consolidate its rule. Against all expectations, they have defied tear gas, batons, bullets, and curfews, and engaged in creative and heroic acts of resistance, growing stronger and more unified than they were before the coup four months ago. They will engage with the new government from a position of strength, while the elites who have long ruled Honduras will be fractured and chastised.

The accords brokered by Shannon force Zelaya to renounce any attempt to convene a constitutional convention, yet the National Front against the Coup - the umbrella group that has coordinated opposition to Micheletti - has made it clear that that demand is "non-negotiable" and that it would continue to push for it, no matter who is president.

It was of course fear of a constituent assembly that provoked the coup in the first place, and it is an irony probably not lost on those who executed it that a large majority of Hondurans, according to a recent poll, now think that such an assembly would be the best way to solve the country's political crisis.

The last thing Micheletti and his supporters want to see is Mel Zelaya, with his white cowboy hat and wide smile, addressing a large crowd filling the streets of Tegucigalpa celebrating his reinstallation, building momentum for fights to come. And this is why Shannon's deal is anything but done.

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