Dave,
That's a really excellent presentation! It must have taken a lot of
work to put together.
One very trivial thing that caught my eye was the frequently repeated
word "impacter". My eyes have become so accustomed to seeing it
spelled "impactor" in all the other LCROSS-related literature that I
wondered if you might have made a typo. I checked my Random House
unabridged dictionary and it lists your spelling as the preferred one,
although "impactor" is also used; Webster's lists them in the opposite
order; Google finds an equal number of usages each way.
More substantively, I doubt that anyone in your audience will have
time to "do the math", but if they did they would notice a serious
discrepancy between the "Ejecta Dust Column Density" plot versus the
"4-6 magnitudes per arcsec-squared" values list on your "Brightness
Slide" (page 9 of the PDF). The dust model seems to be saying that
even in its densest parts (with projected dimensions of a few
kilometers), the plume will be presenting only 750,000 particles per
square meter (mislabeled "#/m^3") to the line of sight. According to
the article by Summy et al. from which this figure seems to be taken
(or at least in which it is repeated):
http://adsabs.harvard.edu//abs/2009LPI....40.2267S
the particles used in the model are "70 microns" (presumably in
diameter). That would give each a cross section of 3.8x10^-9 m^2 per
particle. Multiplying the two numbers together indicates they would
occupy only about 0.003 of the available space (in 0.997 of the
available space we would see between them to whatever background is
behind). Assuming the dust particles are spherical, on average, they
could be thought of as acting as mini-Moons, and collectively, at this
phase, they would be expected to have ~0.003 the surface brightness of
the real Moon (taken as whole). Montanes-Rodriguez et al. (2007) of
Big Bear Solar Observatory's Project Earthshine:
http://bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/bibliography.htm
put that value (averaged over the Moon at this phase) at about 4.8
mpsas. In the peculiar reversed logarithmic system astronomers
prefer, when reduced by a factor of 0.003, the estimated surface
brightness of the swarm of mini-Moons at their *densest places*
becomes something on the order of 11 mpsas. On might argue that the
excavated material will be fresher and less porous than the normal
lunar surface, and hence will have a higher reflectance, but it is
unlikely to be so by more than a factor of 2 or 3, which would modify
the estimate by only about 1 mpsas (to perhaps 10 mpsas).
As a result, one has to wonder if there is something wrong with the
column density chart, or with the estimate of 4 to 6 mpsas surface
brightness given on your slide...
The recommendation to set the exposure based on a star of magnitude 8
or 9 is equally questionable, in my mind. The Moon itself is likely
to be a much more reliable photometric standard, especially for
imaging extended objects; but exactly how the exposure should be set
will have to await Friday's announcement of the viewing geometry, and
hopefully some clarification from the LCROSS team of the expected
surface brightness. In the absence of any further guidance, about all
imagers can do is to turn up the gain to a high level hoping to see
the first signs of the cloud, and if something *is* seen, and actually
develops into a surface brightness of 4 to 6 mpsas, to be prepared to
turn the gain down quickly so it doesn't saturate. Note that 4 mpsas
is roughly the same as the average surface brightness of the bright
sunlit part of the Moon at this phase, and possibly as bright or
brighter than anything else near the poles. It is as bright as Mars
(3.9 mpsas). 6 mpsas is about midway between the surface brightness of
Jupiter (5.6 mpsas) and Saturn (6.9 mpsas).
Your illustration of Saturn near the saturated bright limb of the Moon
on the next slide is excellent, provided you are prepared to identify
the Moon's phase and the ratio of surface brightnesses it represents.
The suggestion on the "Strategies" page to experiment with methods of
reducing stray light is also good. If the plume is as bright as Mars
or Jupiter this shouldn't be necessary, but if it is extremely dim (as
seems possible), everything will help. The strategies that work for
each observer's setup may be different, and it should be possible to
experiment in the next month on targets other than the Moon: for
instance a streetlight, light-bulb, or of other light source
subtending an angle similar to the Moon, attempting to detect detail
in adjacent dimmer areas (ideally of known intensity ratio). I myself
found that with an older 4-inch Maksutov, enlarging the secondary
obstruction, and stopping down the aperture, with black construction
paper produced no obvious improvement in such a streetlight test,
certainly not enough improvement to justify the loss of light.
Unfortunately, with such vague and discrepant estimates of the
expected plume surface brightness relative to the sunlit Moon we don't
know how much improvement (if any) we may need to achieve.
Again, an excellent presentation to which the above comments are minor
amendments.
-- Jim