India Stocks Outlook: Seen volatile next wk; crude oil prices eyed
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B. Karthick
Aug 9, 2008, 1:59:11 AM8/9/08
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India Stocks Outlook: Seen volatile next wk; crude oil prices eyed
Saturday, Aug 9
Volatility is likely to remain high next week, with traders taking
cues from overseas markets, crude oil prices and domestic triggers.
Keep cash, and fingers crossed, ahead of major events and
resultant news flow early next week...IIP data for June, Securities
and Exchange Board of India's board meeting to review FII (foreign
institutional investor) regulations, commencement of parliament
session, quarterly gross domestic product numbers from Japan and a lot
more.
SEBI is likely to review the rules relating to issuance of
Participatory Notes by foreign portfolio investors, which it had
revised in October.
Investors could take heart if SEBI reviews the norms, but they
will also closely watch June industrial growth data due Tuesday.
Technical charts, however, show some more upside for the market.
In last couple of days, Nifty had taken strong support around 4500
and has managed to sustain above this level on a closing basis. For
next week, we expect Nifty to continue its uptrend and also expect an
upside breakout from the 4500-4600 range.
If Nifty closes above 4600, it would target higher level of 4850.
Support for the index at 4405.
Sensex ended at 15167.82, up 50.57 points or 0.3% from Thursday.
Nifty closed at 4529.50, up 5.65 points or 0.1%.
India VIX or volatility index fell 1.5%.
Crude oil prices will continue to determine the trend in equity
markets across the world, especially India.
Oil is the single largest factor. If oil cools down to $105 level,
we may see another fresh round of buying but if it goes back to
$122-123 level, we may see some selling pressure.
The Indian market has outperformed its Asian peers in last two
weeks on the back of retreating crude oil prices, since India imports
around 70% of its oil requirements.
Bank shares could extend gains on expectations of some reforms
soon.
We are bullish on banking, with ICICI (Bank) and Axis Bank being
the top picks.
Capital goods companies could also gain in the coming sessions.
There was buying in the capital goods segment yesterday, and it is
likely to lead gains in the market going ahead. End
B.Karthick
Research Analyst.
Saturday, Aug 9
Volatility is likely to remain high next week, with traders taking
cues from overseas markets, crude oil prices and domestic triggers.
Keep cash, and fingers crossed, ahead of major events and
resultant news flow early next week...IIP data for June, Securities
and Exchange Board of India's board meeting to review FII (foreign
institutional investor) regulations, commencement of parliament
session, quarterly gross domestic product numbers from Japan and a lot
more.
SEBI is likely to review the rules relating to issuance of
Participatory Notes by foreign portfolio investors, which it had
revised in October.
Investors could take heart if SEBI reviews the norms, but they
will also closely watch June industrial growth data due Tuesday.
Technical charts, however, show some more upside for the market.
In last couple of days, Nifty had taken strong support around 4500
and has managed to sustain above this level on a closing basis. For
next week, we expect Nifty to continue its uptrend and also expect an
upside breakout from the 4500-4600 range.
If Nifty closes above 4600, it would target higher level of 4850.
Support for the index at 4405.
Sensex ended at 15167.82, up 50.57 points or 0.3% from Thursday.
Nifty closed at 4529.50, up 5.65 points or 0.1%.
India VIX or volatility index fell 1.5%.
Crude oil prices will continue to determine the trend in equity
markets across the world, especially India.
Oil is the single largest factor. If oil cools down to $105 level,
we may see another fresh round of buying but if it goes back to
$122-123 level, we may see some selling pressure.
The Indian market has outperformed its Asian peers in last two
weeks on the back of retreating crude oil prices, since India imports
around 70% of its oil requirements.
Bank shares could extend gains on expectations of some reforms
soon.
We are bullish on banking, with ICICI (Bank) and Axis Bank being
the top picks.
Capital goods companies could also gain in the coming sessions.
There was buying in the capital goods segment yesterday, and it is
likely to lead gains in the market going ahead. End
B.Karthick
Research Analyst.
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