RESEARCH: Morgan Stanley "steadfastly bearish" on Indian banks
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K.Karthik Raja
Jul 8, 2008, 6:10:23 AM7/8/08
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RESEARCH: Morgan Stanley "steadfastly bearish" on Indian banks
Tuesday, Jul 8 - Snapshot of equity research reports
.
Note: "Recent reports" category is alphabetically arranged by company
name.
> MP is market price as indicated in the report.
> MP and Target in rupees/share.
> Date refers to when the report was published by the brokerage.
> Market price refers to rate prevailing at the time of writing
this
report.
.
LATEST REPORTS
.
Date: Jul 7
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Axis Morgan Under- 604 460 * Loan growth remains
strong.
Bank Stanley weight * Margins decline
marginally,
credit costs increase.
* Pressures on margins
and credit
quality intensify.
.
HDFC Morgan Equal- 1005 975 * Strong loan growth with
improved
Bank Stanley weight margins.
* Slowdown in loan growth
and rise
in credit costs.
.
Himatsingka Edelweiss Reduce 45 - * Dismal performance in
FY08.
Seide * Uncertainty over
derivatives
Contract.
* Hassan plant a drag on
profits.
.
ICICI Morgan Equal- 605 600 * Margins, loan growth
better than
Bank Stanley weight base case.
* Modest loan growth and
some
margin improvement.
* Pressure on margins,
loan growth
and capital market
activity
slows down further.
.
Kotak Morgan Under- 464 370 * Sharper-than-expected
slowdown
Mahindra Stanley weight in market volumes is a
key risk.
Bank * Key assumptions
affecting our
valuation its
securities
business are growth in
market
volume, market share,
decline
in commission rates.
.
HDFC Morgan Over- 1005 2500 * Margins remain stable;
loan book
Bank Stanley weight growth slows down
marginally.
* Upward movement in
short-term
interest rates a risk.
.
Infra- Morgan Over- 113 150 * Loan growth expected to
remain
structure Stanley weight strong.
Development * Loan growth is expected
to be
Finance strong, although it
could slow
Corp down from current
levels.
.
.
Date: Jul 4
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Cairn ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
grow
India Securities 102.9% YoY.
* Key swing factors are
production
volumes, realisations
and
exchange rates
.
Hindustan ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
surge
Petroleum Securities 61.5% YoY
Corporation * Key swing factors are
inventory
gains, bonds, upstream
subsidy,
refining margins
.
Indra- ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
improve
prastha Securities 13.4% YoY
Gas * Key swing factors are
CNG, PNG
volumes and
depreciation
.
Gujarat ICICI Buy - - * Revenues to rise 19.6%
YoY
Gas Securities driven by growth in the
high
Company value retail and CNG
segments
* Key swing factors are
retail,
CNG volumes, shift in
gas
sourcing basket,
exchange rates
and gas allocation
policy
.
GAIL ICICI Buy - - * Net income to remain
flat at
India Securities 6.9 bln rupees
* Key swing factors are
ad hoc
surprises on subsidies
and gas
trading
.
Oil & ICICI Buy - - * Revenues, adjusted for
subsidy
Natural Securities expected to grow 20.6%
YoY
Gas Corp * Key swing factors are
levies,
subsidy, personnel
expenses and
recouped costs
.
Reliance ICICI Buy - - * Revenues expected to
grow 40.5%
Industries Securities YoY on the back of 79%
YoY rise
in crude prices and
increase in
oil & gas production
from the
Panna Mukta Tapti field
.
.
Date: Jul 1
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
IVRCL JP Morgan Over- 304 - * No slowdown in growth
momentum
Infra- weight * NHAI has a long
pipeline of
Structure projects
.
Larsen & JP Morgan Over- 2183 - * No slowdown in growth
momentum
Toubro weight * NHAI has a long
pipeline of
projects
.
.
RECENT REPORTS
.
Stock: ACC Ltd
Current Market Price: 525.20 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 472 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Ambuja Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 74.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 72 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Balaji Telefilms Ltd
Current Market Price: 170.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Apr-Jun revenue is expected to
Jul 4
Securities increase 22.9% Y-o-Y
* EBITDA is likely to decline
.
.
Stock: Banco Products India Ltd
Current Market Price: 28.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth Buy 28 - * EBITDA margins have shown
Jul 3
Stock remarkable increase
Broking * Has strong balance sheet and
robust free cash generation
.
.
Stock: Bharti Airtel Ltd
Current Market Price: 708.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Adverse rupee movement will keep
Jul 4
Securities finance charges under pressure
* Robust subscriber addition
.
.
Stock: Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd
Current Market Price: 293.40 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Prabhudas Buy 301 480 * Growth momentum continues
Jul 2
Lilladher * Maharashtra expansion plans well
on track
.
.
Stock: Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd
Current Market Price: 274.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth Buy 243 550 * No subsidy burden as it is a
Jul 2
Stock standalone refinery.
Broking * Gross refining margins to remain
strong due to strong global crude
oil prices
.
.
Stock: Cranes Software International Ltd
Current Market Price: 119.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Buy 122 154 * Rising material costs pressurise
Jul 3
Broking margins
* Lower margins, other income,
higher interest slow bottomline
growth
.
.
Stock: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd
Current Market Price: 105.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Neutral 106 - * Earnings growth collapses
Jul 2
Broking * We remain negative on the
company owing to concerns over
poor quality of its growth
.
Prabhudas Market 98 121 * Newsprint cost increase to
Jul 2
Lilladher performer impact margins
* Downgrade to market performer
.
.
Stock: eClerx Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 203.55 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth - 196 - * Not fully convinced on the
Jul 3
Stock revenue model and transparency
Broking of their contracts with clients
* Company is fully dependent on
the product cyclicality and
price movement
.
.
Stock: Entertainment Network India Ltd
Current Market Price: 337.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * We expect Apr-Jun standalone
Jul 4
Securities (radio) revenue to rise 40% Y-o-Y
* Losses from OOH business
would depress profitability
.
.
Stock: Gammon India Ltd
Current Market Price: 227.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Finquest Neutral 227 - * FY08 topline above expectations
Jul 7
Securities * EBIDTA margin saw de-growth
of 35 bps Y-o-Y on account of
increase in commodity prices
and lower margins in Q3 of FY08
.
Religare Accu- 223 415 * Net sales and EBITDA above our
Jul 3
Securities mulate estimates. Adjusted PAT below
our estimates
* Downgrading our one-year forward
target price
.
.
Stock: Geometric Ltd
Current Market Price: 47.75 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell - - * Volume growth to be under
Jul 4
pressure
* Operating margins to improve
with rupee depreciation
.
.
Stock: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Current Market Price: 602.20 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Buy 600 728 * Acquisition of seven polish
Jul 3
Securities brands establishes front end in
Central and East Europe
.
.
Stock: Grasim Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 1733.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 1681 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Gujarat State Petronet Ltd
Current Market Price: 58.85 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Buy 56 80 * Average realisations higher
Jul 3
Broking * We remain positive over the gas
transmission business
.
.
Stock: HCL Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 243.45 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Expect 25% topline growth in
Jul 4
U.S. dollar terms FY09
.
.
Stock: Hester Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Current Market Price: 110.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC Hold 102 - * Existing investors can hold the
Jul 4
Securities shares and look to exit in the
123-141 rupees band, unless the
equity market sentiment improves
.
.
Stock: Hexaware Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 48.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Rupee depreciation to aid revenue
Jul 4
mulate growth and operating margins
.
.
Stock: Hindustan Constructions Co Ltd
Current Market Price: 85.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 72 125 * High quality order book of over
Jul 2
Global 100 bln rupees.
Financial * Things have started to look up
Services in FY08.
.
.
Stock: HT Media Ltd
Current Market Price: 103.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Ad revenue is expected to
Jul 4
Securities grow 18% Y-o-Y driven by Hindi
segment of its business
* Newsprint prices on the rise
.
.
Stock: ICICI Bank Ltd
Current Market Price: 605.15 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Merrill Buy 621 1250 * 'Worst case' scenario implies
Jul 3
Lynch limited downside
* 'Base case' should still see
earnings growth at 17%
.
.
Stock: India Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 134.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell 125 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Prabhudas Under- 121 117 * Results in line, but tough road
Jul 2
Lilladher performer ahead
* Strong realisations boost
revenue growth
.
Religare Accu- 126 205 * Net sales in line with our
Jul 2
Securities mulate estimates; EBITDA and Adjusted
PAT lower than our estimates
.
Motilal Buy 122 200 * Strong realisations drive
Jul 1
Oswal revenue growth.
* Imported coal cost remains a
concern.
* Cost push restricts margin
expansion.
.
Sharekhan Buy 120 260 * Southern region reports strong
Jul 1
growth
* Expect India Cements' earning
growth to come under pressure
going ahead due to rise in
input cost and increase
in the effective tax rate
.
ICICI Hold 137 - * Cost pressures a concern
Jul 1
Securities * Valuations cheap
* High dependence on imported
coal remains a concern
.
.
Stock: Infosys Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 1799.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Best-placed with low forex hedges
Jul 4
mulate * Guidance for Q2 will be near-term
catalyst
.
.
Stock: Infotech Enterprises Ltd
Current Market Price: 226.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Margins to decline with increase
Jul 4
in employee costs
* Full benefit of rupee depre-
ciation seen in Jul-Sep
.
.
Stock: IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd
Current Market Price: 313.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 284 473 * Order inflow has continued to be
Jul 2
Global very strong.
Financial * Growth momentum not slowed down
Services in FY08.
.
.
Stock: Jaiprakash Associates Ltd
Current Market Price: 160.15 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 139 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Madras Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 2680.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell 2762 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
Emkay Buy 2745 3430 * Q4 results below expectations
Jul 2
Global * At current levels the stock is
Financial trading at attractive valuations
Services
.
.
Stock: Madhucon Projects Ltd
Current Market Price: 314.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 326 498 * Company's Indonesian coal mines
Jul 2
Global have started commercial.
Financial * Contracting business expected to
Services remain on growth path.
.
.
Stock: Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd
Current Market Price: 89.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Hold - - * Expected to report sluggish
Jul 4
Securities numbers
* Broadband, internet subscriber
base growth to provide some
support to the otherwise
deteriorating financials.
.
.
Stock: Man Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 78.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Hold 74 90 * Results below our estimates
Jul 2
Securities * Any positive trigger including
an increase in the order book
position will lead to a spurt in
the stock price
.
.
Stock: Mastek Ltd
Current Market Price: 364.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Increased traction from existing
Jul 4
mulate clients to continue
* Watch out for FY09 guidance
.
.
Stock: Mphasis Ltd
Current Market Price: 209.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * IT services volume to continue
Jul 4
decent growth but BPO revenues
may be under pressure
.
.
Stock: Navneet Publications Ltd
Current Market Price: 68.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Sharekhan Buy 67 80 * Q4 results ahead of expectation
Jul 3
* Publication segment growth to
moderate
.
.
Stock: Nitin Fire Protection Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 311.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
AnandRathi Buy 334 547 * Margin expansion as planned
Jun 30
* Bottom-line growth impressive
* Sales of industrial cylinders to
be under pressure even in FY09
.
.
Stock: Patel Engineering Ltd
Current Market Price: 346.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Finquest Neutral 333 - * We would avoid to rate the stock
Jul 3
in the present update but are
positive on the prospects of the
company
.
.
Stock: Patni Computer Systems Ltd
Current Market Price: 237.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Expect flattish revenue
Jul 4
mulate * Do not expect recovery in
margins
* Attrition is the key issue
.
.
Stock: PSL Ltd
Current Market Price: 322.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 317 460 * Topline growth above expectation
Jul 3
Global but bottomline below expectation
Financial * Healthy order book position
Services
.
.
Stock: Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd
Current Market Price: 164.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Buy 176 480 * Slow quarter (Apr-Jun) but a
Jul 7
Securities good year expected ahead
* Value creation from planned
listing of production arm
.
.
Stock: Rolta India Ltd
Current Market Price: 267.85 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Continued execution traction
Jul 4
* Order book growth to reduce
.
.
Stock: Sasken Communciation Ltd
Current Market Price: 139.10 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Services business volumes to
Jul 4
mulate remain muted
* Salary increases and lower
product revenues to impact
margin
.
.
Stock: Satyam Computer Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 481.50 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Margins likely to improve
Jul 4
* 4-5% sequential growth in Q1
likely
.
.
Stock: Simplex Infrastructure Ltd
Current Market Price: 433.50 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Asit C Buy 449 626 * Current order book position
Jul 5
Mehta stands at 100.12 bln rupees
* Interest expense has gone up
significantly on account of
higher borrowing cost
.
Edelweiss Buy 420 - * Diversified order book
Jul 2
* Company is better placed
with limited funding concerns
despite challenging outlook
for short term
.
Motilal Buy 433 721 * Robust order book at 100 bln
Jul 1
Oswal rupees
* Execution remains the focus
* Capex and Manpower addition to
ensure faster execution
.
.
Stock: Sun TV Network Ltd
Current Market Price: 270.60 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC Buy 248 320 * Advertising revenues and pay
Jul 2
Securities channel revenues to drive
earnings growth
.
Prabhudas Market 286 332 * Results in-line; growth persists
Jul 1
Lilladher performer * New revenue streams start
Contributing
.
.
Stock: Tata Communications Ltd
Current Market Price: 373.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Sell - - * EBITDA margin expected to remain
Jul 4
Securities stable quarter on quarter
* High depreciation and interest
costs would result in net losses
.
.
Stock: Tata Consultancy Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 852.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Muted Q1 FY09 performance likely
Jul 4
mulate * Status on large order pipeline
likely to remain confident
.
.
Stock: Time Technoplast Ltd
Current Market Price: 781.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC - 785 975 * We continue to be excited by
Jul 4
Securities company's growth prospects
* We recommend risk-averse
investors to exit the stock
.
.
Stock: TV Today Network Ltd
Current Market Price: 88.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Subscription revenue likely to
Securities flow in only from Jul-Sep
.
.
Stock: TVS Motor Company Ltd
Current Market Price: 26.60 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Sell 25 26 * Results disappointing; rising
Jul 3
Securities costs, competition to exert
pressure
.
Edelweiss Accu- 26 - * Company will struggle to
Jul 2
mulate cope up with intensifying
competition
.
Motilal Neutral 24 - * Exports witness steep 32% growth
Jul 1
Oswal in FY08
* But volumes decline in Q4
.
.
Stock: UltraTech Cement Ltd
Current Market Price: 553.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 532 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Wipro Ltd
Current Market Price: 442.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Apr-Jun performance likely to
Jul 4
mulate track expectations
.
Stock: Zee News Ltd
Current Market Price: 47.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * EBITDA losses in new business
Jul 4
Securities segments likely to be reduced
to 60 mln rupees
* Revenue expected to increase
51.2% Y-o-Y in Apr-Jun
.
.
ABBREVIATIONS USED
q-o-q: Quarter-on-quarter
y-o-y: Year-on-year
BFSI: Banking, financial services and insurance
CAGR: Compounded annual growth rate
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
FY: Financial year ended March
FCCB: Foreign currency convertible bonds
JV: Joint venture
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
MTM: Mark-to-market
NIM: Net Interest Margin
NII: Net Interest Income
ROAE: Return on Average Equity
WHO: World Health Organisation
Tuesday, Jul 8 - Snapshot of equity research reports
.
Note: "Recent reports" category is alphabetically arranged by company
name.
> MP is market price as indicated in the report.
> MP and Target in rupees/share.
> Date refers to when the report was published by the brokerage.
> Market price refers to rate prevailing at the time of writing
this
report.
.
LATEST REPORTS
.
Date: Jul 7
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Axis Morgan Under- 604 460 * Loan growth remains
strong.
Bank Stanley weight * Margins decline
marginally,
credit costs increase.
* Pressures on margins
and credit
quality intensify.
.
HDFC Morgan Equal- 1005 975 * Strong loan growth with
improved
Bank Stanley weight margins.
* Slowdown in loan growth
and rise
in credit costs.
.
Himatsingka Edelweiss Reduce 45 - * Dismal performance in
FY08.
Seide * Uncertainty over
derivatives
Contract.
* Hassan plant a drag on
profits.
.
ICICI Morgan Equal- 605 600 * Margins, loan growth
better than
Bank Stanley weight base case.
* Modest loan growth and
some
margin improvement.
* Pressure on margins,
loan growth
and capital market
activity
slows down further.
.
Kotak Morgan Under- 464 370 * Sharper-than-expected
slowdown
Mahindra Stanley weight in market volumes is a
key risk.
Bank * Key assumptions
affecting our
valuation its
securities
business are growth in
market
volume, market share,
decline
in commission rates.
.
HDFC Morgan Over- 1005 2500 * Margins remain stable;
loan book
Bank Stanley weight growth slows down
marginally.
* Upward movement in
short-term
interest rates a risk.
.
Infra- Morgan Over- 113 150 * Loan growth expected to
remain
structure Stanley weight strong.
Development * Loan growth is expected
to be
Finance strong, although it
could slow
Corp down from current
levels.
.
.
Date: Jul 4
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Cairn ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
grow
India Securities 102.9% YoY.
* Key swing factors are
production
volumes, realisations
and
exchange rates
.
Hindustan ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
surge
Petroleum Securities 61.5% YoY
Corporation * Key swing factors are
inventory
gains, bonds, upstream
subsidy,
refining margins
.
Indra- ICICI Buy - - * Q1 Revenues expected to
improve
prastha Securities 13.4% YoY
Gas * Key swing factors are
CNG, PNG
volumes and
depreciation
.
Gujarat ICICI Buy - - * Revenues to rise 19.6%
YoY
Gas Securities driven by growth in the
high
Company value retail and CNG
segments
* Key swing factors are
retail,
CNG volumes, shift in
gas
sourcing basket,
exchange rates
and gas allocation
policy
.
GAIL ICICI Buy - - * Net income to remain
flat at
India Securities 6.9 bln rupees
* Key swing factors are
ad hoc
surprises on subsidies
and gas
trading
.
Oil & ICICI Buy - - * Revenues, adjusted for
subsidy
Natural Securities expected to grow 20.6%
YoY
Gas Corp * Key swing factors are
levies,
subsidy, personnel
expenses and
recouped costs
.
Reliance ICICI Buy - - * Revenues expected to
grow 40.5%
Industries Securities YoY on the back of 79%
YoY rise
in crude prices and
increase in
oil & gas production
from the
Panna Mukta Tapti field
.
.
Date: Jul 1
.
Stock Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
IVRCL JP Morgan Over- 304 - * No slowdown in growth
momentum
Infra- weight * NHAI has a long
pipeline of
Structure projects
.
Larsen & JP Morgan Over- 2183 - * No slowdown in growth
momentum
Toubro weight * NHAI has a long
pipeline of
projects
.
.
RECENT REPORTS
.
Stock: ACC Ltd
Current Market Price: 525.20 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 472 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Ambuja Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 74.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 72 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Balaji Telefilms Ltd
Current Market Price: 170.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Apr-Jun revenue is expected to
Jul 4
Securities increase 22.9% Y-o-Y
* EBITDA is likely to decline
.
.
Stock: Banco Products India Ltd
Current Market Price: 28.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth Buy 28 - * EBITDA margins have shown
Jul 3
Stock remarkable increase
Broking * Has strong balance sheet and
robust free cash generation
.
.
Stock: Bharti Airtel Ltd
Current Market Price: 708.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Adverse rupee movement will keep
Jul 4
Securities finance charges under pressure
* Robust subscriber addition
.
.
Stock: Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd
Current Market Price: 293.40 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Prabhudas Buy 301 480 * Growth momentum continues
Jul 2
Lilladher * Maharashtra expansion plans well
on track
.
.
Stock: Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd
Current Market Price: 274.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth Buy 243 550 * No subsidy burden as it is a
Jul 2
Stock standalone refinery.
Broking * Gross refining margins to remain
strong due to strong global crude
oil prices
.
.
Stock: Cranes Software International Ltd
Current Market Price: 119.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Buy 122 154 * Rising material costs pressurise
Jul 3
Broking margins
* Lower margins, other income,
higher interest slow bottomline
growth
.
.
Stock: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd
Current Market Price: 105.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Neutral 106 - * Earnings growth collapses
Jul 2
Broking * We remain negative on the
company owing to concerns over
poor quality of its growth
.
Prabhudas Market 98 121 * Newsprint cost increase to
Jul 2
Lilladher performer impact margins
* Downgrade to market performer
.
.
Stock: eClerx Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 203.55 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Networth - 196 - * Not fully convinced on the
Jul 3
Stock revenue model and transparency
Broking of their contracts with clients
* Company is fully dependent on
the product cyclicality and
price movement
.
.
Stock: Entertainment Network India Ltd
Current Market Price: 337.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * We expect Apr-Jun standalone
Jul 4
Securities (radio) revenue to rise 40% Y-o-Y
* Losses from OOH business
would depress profitability
.
.
Stock: Gammon India Ltd
Current Market Price: 227.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Finquest Neutral 227 - * FY08 topline above expectations
Jul 7
Securities * EBIDTA margin saw de-growth
of 35 bps Y-o-Y on account of
increase in commodity prices
and lower margins in Q3 of FY08
.
Religare Accu- 223 415 * Net sales and EBITDA above our
Jul 3
Securities mulate estimates. Adjusted PAT below
our estimates
* Downgrading our one-year forward
target price
.
.
Stock: Geometric Ltd
Current Market Price: 47.75 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell - - * Volume growth to be under
Jul 4
pressure
* Operating margins to improve
with rupee depreciation
.
.
Stock: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Current Market Price: 602.20 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Buy 600 728 * Acquisition of seven polish
Jul 3
Securities brands establishes front end in
Central and East Europe
.
.
Stock: Grasim Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 1733.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 1681 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Gujarat State Petronet Ltd
Current Market Price: 58.85 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Angel Buy 56 80 * Average realisations higher
Jul 3
Broking * We remain positive over the gas
transmission business
.
.
Stock: HCL Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 243.45 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Expect 25% topline growth in
Jul 4
U.S. dollar terms FY09
.
.
Stock: Hester Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Current Market Price: 110.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC Hold 102 - * Existing investors can hold the
Jul 4
Securities shares and look to exit in the
123-141 rupees band, unless the
equity market sentiment improves
.
.
Stock: Hexaware Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 48.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Rupee depreciation to aid revenue
Jul 4
mulate growth and operating margins
.
.
Stock: Hindustan Constructions Co Ltd
Current Market Price: 85.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 72 125 * High quality order book of over
Jul 2
Global 100 bln rupees.
Financial * Things have started to look up
Services in FY08.
.
.
Stock: HT Media Ltd
Current Market Price: 103.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Ad revenue is expected to
Jul 4
Securities grow 18% Y-o-Y driven by Hindi
segment of its business
* Newsprint prices on the rise
.
.
Stock: ICICI Bank Ltd
Current Market Price: 605.15 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Merrill Buy 621 1250 * 'Worst case' scenario implies
Jul 3
Lynch limited downside
* 'Base case' should still see
earnings growth at 17%
.
.
Stock: India Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 134.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell 125 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Prabhudas Under- 121 117 * Results in line, but tough road
Jul 2
Lilladher performer ahead
* Strong realisations boost
revenue growth
.
Religare Accu- 126 205 * Net sales in line with our
Jul 2
Securities mulate estimates; EBITDA and Adjusted
PAT lower than our estimates
.
Motilal Buy 122 200 * Strong realisations drive
Jul 1
Oswal revenue growth.
* Imported coal cost remains a
concern.
* Cost push restricts margin
expansion.
.
Sharekhan Buy 120 260 * Southern region reports strong
Jul 1
growth
* Expect India Cements' earning
growth to come under pressure
going ahead due to rise in
input cost and increase
in the effective tax rate
.
ICICI Hold 137 - * Cost pressures a concern
Jul 1
Securities * Valuations cheap
* High dependence on imported
coal remains a concern
.
.
Stock: Infosys Technologies Ltd
Current Market Price: 1799.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Best-placed with low forex hedges
Jul 4
mulate * Guidance for Q2 will be near-term
catalyst
.
.
Stock: Infotech Enterprises Ltd
Current Market Price: 226.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Margins to decline with increase
Jul 4
in employee costs
* Full benefit of rupee depre-
ciation seen in Jul-Sep
.
.
Stock: IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects Ltd
Current Market Price: 313.95 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 284 473 * Order inflow has continued to be
Jul 2
Global very strong.
Financial * Growth momentum not slowed down
Services in FY08.
.
.
Stock: Jaiprakash Associates Ltd
Current Market Price: 160.15 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 139 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Madras Cements Ltd
Current Market Price: 2680.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Sell 2762 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
Emkay Buy 2745 3430 * Q4 results below expectations
Jul 2
Global * At current levels the stock is
Financial trading at attractive valuations
Services
.
.
Stock: Madhucon Projects Ltd
Current Market Price: 314.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 326 498 * Company's Indonesian coal mines
Jul 2
Global have started commercial.
Financial * Contracting business expected to
Services remain on growth path.
.
.
Stock: Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd
Current Market Price: 89.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Hold - - * Expected to report sluggish
Jul 4
Securities numbers
* Broadband, internet subscriber
base growth to provide some
support to the otherwise
deteriorating financials.
.
.
Stock: Man Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 78.65 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Hold 74 90 * Results below our estimates
Jul 2
Securities * Any positive trigger including
an increase in the order book
position will lead to a spurt in
the stock price
.
.
Stock: Mastek Ltd
Current Market Price: 364.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Increased traction from existing
Jul 4
mulate clients to continue
* Watch out for FY09 guidance
.
.
Stock: Mphasis Ltd
Current Market Price: 209.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * IT services volume to continue
Jul 4
decent growth but BPO revenues
may be under pressure
.
.
Stock: Navneet Publications Ltd
Current Market Price: 68.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Sharekhan Buy 67 80 * Q4 results ahead of expectation
Jul 3
* Publication segment growth to
moderate
.
.
Stock: Nitin Fire Protection Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: 311.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
AnandRathi Buy 334 547 * Margin expansion as planned
Jun 30
* Bottom-line growth impressive
* Sales of industrial cylinders to
be under pressure even in FY09
.
.
Stock: Patel Engineering Ltd
Current Market Price: 346.00 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Finquest Neutral 333 - * We would avoid to rate the stock
Jul 3
in the present update but are
positive on the prospects of the
company
.
.
Stock: Patni Computer Systems Ltd
Current Market Price: 237.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Expect flattish revenue
Jul 4
mulate * Do not expect recovery in
margins
* Attrition is the key issue
.
.
Stock: PSL Ltd
Current Market Price: 322.35 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Emkay Buy 317 460 * Topline growth above expectation
Jul 3
Global but bottomline below expectation
Financial * Healthy order book position
Services
.
.
Stock: Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd
Current Market Price: 164.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Buy 176 480 * Slow quarter (Apr-Jun) but a
Jul 7
Securities good year expected ahead
* Value creation from planned
listing of production arm
.
.
Stock: Rolta India Ltd
Current Market Price: 267.85 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Continued execution traction
Jul 4
* Order book growth to reduce
.
.
Stock: Sasken Communciation Ltd
Current Market Price: 139.10 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Services business volumes to
Jul 4
mulate remain muted
* Salary increases and lower
product revenues to impact
margin
.
.
Stock: Satyam Computer Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 481.50 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Buy - - * Margins likely to improve
Jul 4
* 4-5% sequential growth in Q1
likely
.
.
Stock: Simplex Infrastructure Ltd
Current Market Price: 433.50 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Asit C Buy 449 626 * Current order book position
Jul 5
Mehta stands at 100.12 bln rupees
* Interest expense has gone up
significantly on account of
higher borrowing cost
.
Edelweiss Buy 420 - * Diversified order book
Jul 2
* Company is better placed
with limited funding concerns
despite challenging outlook
for short term
.
Motilal Buy 433 721 * Robust order book at 100 bln
Jul 1
Oswal rupees
* Execution remains the focus
* Capex and Manpower addition to
ensure faster execution
.
.
Stock: Sun TV Network Ltd
Current Market Price: 270.60 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC Buy 248 320 * Advertising revenues and pay
Jul 2
Securities channel revenues to drive
earnings growth
.
Prabhudas Market 286 332 * Results in-line; growth persists
Jul 1
Lilladher performer * New revenue streams start
Contributing
.
.
Stock: Tata Communications Ltd
Current Market Price: 373.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Sell - - * EBITDA margin expected to remain
Jul 4
Securities stable quarter on quarter
* High depreciation and interest
costs would result in net losses
.
.
Stock: Tata Consultancy Services Ltd
Current Market Price: 852.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Muted Q1 FY09 performance likely
Jul 4
mulate * Status on large order pipeline
likely to remain confident
.
.
Stock: Time Technoplast Ltd
Current Market Price: 781.05 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
HDFC - 785 975 * We continue to be excited by
Jul 4
Securities company's growth prospects
* We recommend risk-averse
investors to exit the stock
.
.
Stock: TV Today Network Ltd
Current Market Price: 88.25 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * Subscription revenue likely to
Securities flow in only from Jul-Sep
.
.
Stock: TVS Motor Company Ltd
Current Market Price: 26.60 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Religare Sell 25 26 * Results disappointing; rising
Jul 3
Securities costs, competition to exert
pressure
.
Edelweiss Accu- 26 - * Company will struggle to
Jul 2
mulate cope up with intensifying
competition
.
Motilal Neutral 24 - * Exports witness steep 32% growth
Jul 1
Oswal in FY08
* But volumes decline in Q4
.
.
Stock: UltraTech Cement Ltd
Current Market Price: 553.30 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Reduce 532 - * Fundamentals likely to remain
Jul 4
weak as surplus remains high,
risk of softer demand due to
likely slowdown in realty sector
and mounting cost pressure
.
.
Stock: Wipro Ltd
Current Market Price: 442.80 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
Edelweiss Accu- - - * Apr-Jun performance likely to
Jul 4
mulate track expectations
.
Stock: Zee News Ltd
Current Market Price: 47.70 rupees
.
Brokerage Rating MP Target Analyst comment
Date
ICICI Buy - - * EBITDA losses in new business
Jul 4
Securities segments likely to be reduced
to 60 mln rupees
* Revenue expected to increase
51.2% Y-o-Y in Apr-Jun
.
.
ABBREVIATIONS USED
q-o-q: Quarter-on-quarter
y-o-y: Year-on-year
BFSI: Banking, financial services and insurance
CAGR: Compounded annual growth rate
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
FY: Financial year ended March
FCCB: Foreign currency convertible bonds
JV: Joint venture
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
MTM: Mark-to-market
NIM: Net Interest Margin
NII: Net Interest Income
ROAE: Return on Average Equity
WHO: World Health Organisation
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