Does it make sense to invest in gold now?

[Sukumar.N]

Does it make sense to invest in gold now?
==============================

Historical trend shows that crude and gold prices have a positive
correlation. But in recent times, though crude prices have plunged to
around $70 levels, which is almost half the price of its recent record
high, gold prices are on an upswing and are making new peaks which
shows that gold prices have moved against the historical trend and are
showing negative correlation with crude.

This is mainly because of the recent turbulence in global financial
markets which has spurred the international gold price, given its safe
haven status. The depreciating rupee against dollar, along with
seasonal festive demand, have also contributed to the recent highs
seen by gold prices in domestic market.

But does it make sense to invest in gold when the metal or the
ultimate monetary asset is in on an upswing? My answer will be why
not? When you can grab more returns with same level of risk in the
portfolio, why not invest in the gold. An example will help you
understand this better.

How to go for gold
==============

Tactical approach

When one is bearish on equity markets, but bullish on gold, one can
increase allocation to gold and vice versa. This view, based on the
market performance, is called tactical asset allocation.

It is, however, difficult for an ordinary investor or even
professional investors to put this in practice as predicting markets
is not an exact science.

Strategic approach
==============

The other approach is the strategic approach which is more scientific
with less dependence on subjectivity and forecasting markets. This
approach is about adding gold to the portfolio for diversification
benefits.

Theory says that diversification leads to lower risk at the same
expected return level or higher expected returns at the same risk. But
does it really work?



Why gold?
========


Chart A and B plot the returns expected at each level of risk taken.
Consider chart A. We have two financial products we can buy, debt
(bonds, PF, PPF, FDs are all examples of a debt product) and equity
(direct stocks, equity funds and Ulips are examples of equity).

At point 2, we are fully in zero risk bonds at an expected return of
6%. This means there is no risk of capital loss to my money, but my
return is just 6% per annum.

At point 1, all our money is in equity, so the risk (measured by
standard deviation) is at 12%, but expected return is as high as 20%.
At point 3, we are half in equity and half in debt that reduces risk
to 6% and expected return to 13.47%.

All points along the line 1-3-2 are points on the efficient frontier,
which shows the maximum risk possible for a given level of risk. Any
point below that is inefficient, because we can increase return by
increasing equity for the same level of risk.


How to buy gold?
============


Now comes the interesting part. We can increase return for the same
level of risk by introducing a third asset in this example (See chart
B). This asset needs to have a negative or low correlation with debt
and equity. This means that it moves in a more or less independent or
opposite direction to these.

We now have an asset allocation of 50% equity and 50% gold (remember
this is for purely illustrative needs, actual asset allocation to gold
needs to be no more than 10% in an average portfolio). At the same 6%
risk level, the expected return is now 15.86%.

The best way to invest in gold is through gold ETFs because it has tax
efficiency, is available in small denominations at international price
without premiums and has cost efficiency. It is also convenient for
long term holding and most importantly, has liquidity.


N.Sukumar
Research Analyst
www.kences1.blogspot.com