DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on WED May 14
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****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only *****************
AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 1708,2786 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF
AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 658 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height)
AM HGT VARIABILITY: 752 ft (from TI=0to+4degF)
AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less)
AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 239 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario)
PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -803 ft @TI=+4degF
Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast)
BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= -1%
AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1257 ft LCL= 1563 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1479 ft LCL= 1754 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible)
THU AM HEIGHTS: 4515,5137 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3661 ftMSL
THU PM CHANGE: -2757 ft @TI=+4
FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2021,2909 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1546 ftMSL
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***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************
*** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html ***
NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE
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******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES ***********************************
TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 05/14:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MAPS NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2500, 2822 Hcrit= 1179 HgtVar= 373 B/S= 8 W*= 255
MAPS WxC Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 2261, 2741 Hcrit= 907 HgtVar= 345 B/S= 7 W*= 237
MAPS AVG Tmax=58.5> TI=-4,0@ 2380, 2782 Hcrit= 1058 HgtVar= 359 B/S= 7 W*= 246
ETA NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 916, 2750 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1132 B/S=10 W*= 223
ETA WxC Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 828, 2470 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1118 B/S=12 W*= 197
ETA AVG Tmax=58.5> TI=-4,0@ 906, 2611 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1124 B/S=13 W*= 210
MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
--------------------------------------------------
am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2500, 2822 Hcrit= 1179 HgtVar= 373 B/S= 8 W*= 255 MAPSanl:05/14:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -907 (-11.8F) MAPS11h:05/15:00Z
ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
-------------------------------------------------
am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 916, 2750 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1132 B/S=10 W*= 223 ETAanal:05/14:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -699 (-6.3F) ETA12hr:05/15:00Z
THUam NWS Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 4515, 5137 Hcrit= 3661 HgtVar= 794 B/S=18 W*= 502 ETA24hr:05/15:12Z
THUpm NWS Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: -2757 (-17.8F) ETA36hr:05/16:00Z
FRIam wxc Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@ 2021, 2909 Hcrit= 1546 HgtVar=1132 B/S=13 W*= 298 ETA48hr:05/16:12Z
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**************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax ***************
14-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 61.2 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 61.3 F
Surface elev Temp: 49.6 F
Surface elev VirtT: 51.9 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 49.6 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 51.9 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 2920 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 2820 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 48.1 107 | 13.9 * .o
17500 46.9 106 | 15.3 * .o
17000 45.7 305 60 105 | 16.8 * .o
16500 44.3 103 | 18.1 * o
16000 42.9 306 55 102 | 19.3 * .o
15500 41.4 100 | 20.5 * o
15000 39.8 304 51 99 | 21.6 * o
14500 38.1 97 | 22.6 * o
14000 36.5 302 47 95 | 23.6 * o
13500 34.8 94 | 24.6 * o
13000 33.1 302 45 92 | 25.6 * o
12500 31.4 301 42 90 | 26.6 * o
12000 29.8 89 | 27.6 * o
11500 28.1 301 40 87 | 28.6 * o
11000 26.6 86 | 29.7 * o
10500 25.1 84 | 30.9 * o
10000 23.5 302 38 83 | 32.0 * o
9500 22.1 81 | 33.2 * o
9000 20.6 306 35 80 | 34.5 * o
8500 19.5 79 | 36.0 * .o
8000 18.4 311 33 77 | 37.6 * o
7500 17.5 76 | 39.3 * o
7000 16.6 312 31 76 | 41.2 * .o
6500 15.8 311 26 75 | 43.0 * .o
6000 15.1 307 22 74 | 44.9 * . o
5500 14.1 301 19 73 | 46.6 * . o
5000 12.8 296 17 72 | 48.0 * .o
4500 10.9 294 16 70 | 48.7 * . o
4000 9.0 295 15 68 | 49.6 * . o
3500 6.8 298 14 66 | 50.0 * .o
3000 2.2 297 12 61 | 48.1 *o
2500 -4.0 310 9 55 | 44.6 o*
2000 -6.1 313 9 53 | 45.1 o *
1500 -6.1 308 8 53 | 47.8 o *
1000 -6.1 287 6 53 | 50.5 o *
500 -7.2 211 3 52 ! 52.1 o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 2820
100 1257 1563 6568 0
98 -15 2835 6568 0
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**************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax *****************
*NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless !
15-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS11h upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 61.5 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 61.6 F
Surface elev Temp: 58.1 F
Surface elev VirtT: 60.7 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 58.1 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 60.7 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 2102 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 275 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.2 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 54.8 305 38 114 | 20.9 * . o
17500 53.4 112 | 22.1 * . o
17000 52.0 311 39 111 | 23.4 * . o
16500 50.6 110 | 24.6 * . o
16000 49.1 108 | 25.9 * . o
15500 47.7 315 39 107 | 27.1 * . o
15000 46.3 105 | 28.4 * . o
14500 45.0 317 38 104 | 29.7 * . o
14000 43.4 102 | 30.9 * . o
13500 41.9 318 39 101 | 32.0 * . o
13000 40.5 99 | 33.3 * . o
12500 39.1 317 40 98 | 34.5 * . o
12000 37.4 96 | 35.5 * . o
11500 35.7 317 41 95 | 36.5 * . o
11000 33.9 316 41 93 | 37.4 * . o
10500 32.0 321 40 91 | 38.1 * . o
10000 29.3 88 | 38.1 * . o
9500 26.3 320 37 85 | 37.7 * . o
9000 23.4 323 33 82 | 37.5 * . o
8500 21.3 80 | 38.1 * . o
8000 19.4 325 29 78 | 38.9 * . o
7500 18.0 77 | 40.2 * . o
7000 16.5 323 27 75 | 41.3 * .o
6500 14.9 323 26 74 | 42.4 * .o
6000 13.5 322 25 73 | 43.7 * . o
5500 12.1 322 24 71 | 45.0 * .o
5000 10.7 322 24 70 | 46.2 * .o
4500 9.3 323 23 68 | 47.5 * .o
4000 8.1 322 22 67 | 49.0 * .o
3500 7.4 308 21 66 | 50.9 * .o
3000 7.0 308 20 66 | 53.2 * .o
2500 5.9 306 17 65 | 54.8 *. o
2000 3.4 329 11 62 | 55.0 * o
1500 2.0 004 8 61 | 56.2 *o
1000 1.9 019 7 61 | 58.8 . o
500 1.4 024 6 60 ! 60.9 . *o
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 275
-1 -1479 1754 3414 0
-1 -1479 1754 3414 0
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******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES *************************************
Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/
and at the hourly data site:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201
The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html
The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at
specific locations for various times throughout the day are
available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html
The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for
the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html
