DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on FRI May 16
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****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only *****************
AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2326,3066 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF
AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 1771 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height)
AM HGT VARIABILITY: 799 ft (from TI=0to+4degF)
AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 14 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less)
AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 327 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario)
PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1927 ft @TI=+4degF
Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast)
BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 95% PM= 59%
AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2456 ft LCL= 5295 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3364 ft LCL= 4281 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 361 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible)
SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1745,2636 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1298 ftMSL
SAT PM CHANGE: +1495 ft @TI=+4
SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4815,6066 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4431 ftMSL
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***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************
*** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html ***
NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE
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******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES ***********************************
TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 05/16:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MAPS NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2343, 2833 Hcrit= 1678 HgtVar= 649 B/S= 9 W*= 336
MAPS WxC Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 2049, 2441 Hcrit= 1294 HgtVar= 531 B/S= 9 W*= 295
MAPS AVG Tmax=79.5> TI=-4,0@ 2196, 2625 Hcrit= 1479 HgtVar= 599 B/S= 9 W*= 315
ETA NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2309, 3300 Hcrit= 1865 HgtVar= 950 B/S=19 W*= 319
ETA WxC Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 1696, 2550 Hcrit= 1092 HgtVar= 997 B/S=15 W*= 257
ETA AVG Tmax=79.5> TI=-4,0@ 1964, 2925 Hcrit= 1487 HgtVar= 979 B/S=17 W*= 287
MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
--------------------------------------------------
am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2343, 2833 Hcrit= 1678 HgtVar= 649 B/S= 9 W*= 336 MAPSanl:05/16:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -1567 (-13.5F) MAPS11h:05/17:00Z
ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
-------------------------------------------------
am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2309, 3300 Hcrit= 1865 HgtVar= 950 B/S=19 W*= 319 ETAanal:05/16:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -2288 (-13.7F) ETA12hr:05/17:00Z
SATam NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 1745, 2636 Hcrit= 1298 HgtVar=1818 B/S=17 W*= 279 ETA24hr:05/17:12Z
SATpm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: +1495 (+6.9F) ETA36hr:05/18:00Z
SUNam wxc Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 4815, 6066 Hcrit= 4431 HgtVar=1170 B/S=12 W*= 547 ETA48hr:05/18:12Z
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**************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax ***************
16-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 83.5 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 83.2 F
Surface elev Temp: 51.3 F
Surface elev VirtT: 53.4 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 51.3 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 53.4 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 7397 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 2839 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 31.5 113 | 19.5 * o
17500 31.0 112 | 21.7 * o
17000 30.5 111 | 23.8 * o
16500 30.0 111 | 26.0 * o
16000 29.4 290 13 110 | 28.1 * o
15500 28.8 110 | 30.2 * o
15000 28.2 109 | 32.3 . * o
14500 27.7 109 | 34.4 . * o
14000 27.1 108 | 36.4 . * o
13500 26.5 293 8 107 | 38.5 . * o
13000 26.2 107 | 40.9 . * o
12500 25.8 294 7 107 | 43.2 . * o
12000 25.3 282 8 106 | 45.4 . * o
11500 24.4 291 6 105 | 47.2 .* o
11000 23.3 326 4 104 | 48.7 .* o
10500 22.0 346 4 103 | 50.1 .* o
10000 20.8 359 4 102 | 51.6 . * o
9500 19.5 016 4 101 | 53.0 . * o
9000 18.5 022 4 100 | 54.6 . * o
8500 17.7 040 3 99 | 56.5 . * o
8000 16.9 081 4 98 | 58.4 . * o
7500 16.0 100 6 97 | 60.1 . * o
7000 15.6 106 9 97 | 62.4 . * o
6500 15.1 111 10 96 | 64.5 . * o
6000 14.8 126 9 96 | 66.9 . * o
5500 14.2 136 10 95 | 69.0 . * o
5000 12.7 146 10 94 | 70.1 . * o
4500 9.9 130 11 91 | 70.1 . * o
4000 6.9 124 11 88 | 69.7 . * o
3500 4.1 121 11 85 | 69.6 . * o
3000 1.2 122 10 82 | 69.3 . *o
2500 -2.4 124 9 79 | 68.4 . o*
2000 -7.5 135 8 73 | 66.0 . o *
1500 -12.7 145 5 68 | 63.4 . o *
1000 -18.5 149 5 62 | 60.3 . o *
500 -24.9 107 9 56 ! 56.6 .o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding
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Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 2839
95 -2456 5295 14856 0
44 -5201 8040 14856 0
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**************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax *****************
*NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless !
17-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS11h upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 84.6 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.2 F
Surface elev Temp: 73.8 F
Surface elev VirtT: 77.9 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 73.8 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 77.9 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 5069 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 3 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 917 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 32.1 113 | 21.3 * o
17500 31.5 259 12 113 | 23.4 * o
17000 30.7 112 | 25.3 * o
16500 29.8 111 | 27.0 * o
16000 28.8 238 10 110 | 28.7 * o
15500 28.1 109 | 30.6 * o
15000 27.7 109 | 32.9 * o
14500 27.3 108 | 35.2 . * o
14000 26.9 108 | 37.5 . * o
13500 26.5 206 10 107 | 39.7 . * o
13000 26.0 107 | 41.9 . * o
12500 25.6 198 10 107 | 44.2 . * o
12000 25.3 191 10 106 | 46.5 . * o
11500 24.8 183 11 106 | 48.7 . * o
11000 24.4 180 11 105 | 50.9 . * o
10500 23.9 186 11 105 | 53.2 . * o
10000 23.3 104 | 55.3 . * o
9500 22.6 182 12 104 | 57.2 . * o
9000 21.6 176 14 103 | 58.9 . * o
8500 20.6 169 15 102 | 60.6 . * o
8000 19.6 160 17 101 | 62.2 . * o
7500 18.2 147 18 99 | 63.5 . * o
7000 16.4 138 18 97 | 64.4 . * o
6500 14.2 137 18 95 | 64.9 . * o
6000 12.4 145 17 93 | 65.7 . * o
5500 11.1 150 18 92 | 67.1 . * o
5000 10.3 157 18 91 | 69.0 . * o
4500 9.8 151 20 91 | 71.1 . * o
4000 9.3 148 20 90 | 73.3 . * o
3500 8.7 145 19 90 | 75.4 . * o
3000 8.0 139 17 89 | 77.3 . * o
2500 6.9 144 17 88 | 78.9 . * o
2000 5.7 122 15 87 | 80.4 . * o
1500 4.0 107 12 85 | 81.3 . * o
1000 1.0 083 8 82 | 81.0 . *o
500 -5.1 015 4 76 ! 77.6 . o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 917
71 -2298 3215 10296 0
59 -3364 4281 10296 361
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******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES *************************************
Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/
and at the hourly data site:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201
The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html
The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at
specific locations for various times throughout the day are
available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html
The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for
the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html
