DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on TUE Jul 22
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****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only *****************
AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2428,3248 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF
AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 1732 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height)
AM HGT VARIABILITY: 832 ft (from TI=0to+4degF)
AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less)
AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 300 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario)
PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -17 ft @TI=+4degF
Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast)
BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 97% PM= %
AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 862 ft LCL= 2209 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible)
WED AM HEIGHTS: 3857,4772 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3192 ftMSL
WED PM CHANGE: +36 ft @TI=+4
THU AM HEIGHTS: 4741,5403 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3873 ftMSL
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***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************
*** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html ***
NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE
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******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES ***********************************
TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 07/22:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MAPS NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2562, 3075 Hcrit= 1567 HgtVar= 685 B/S= 6 W*= 288
MAPS WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 1541, 2550 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 512 B/S= 5 W*= 215
MAPS AVG Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2180, 2807 Hcrit= 1152 HgtVar= 571 B/S= 5 W*= 253
ETA NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2294, 3421 Hcrit= 1898 HgtVar= 979 B/S=19 W*= 313
ETA WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 1482, 2277 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1139 B/S=20 W*= 221
ETA AVG Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 1827, 2882 Hcrit= 1319 HgtVar=1022 B/S=16 W*= 267
MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
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am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2562, 3075 Hcrit= 1567 HgtVar= 685 B/S= 6 W*= 288 MAPSanl:07/22:12Z
*NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 67.3 > 67.0
pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +499 (+4.0F) MAPS11h:07/23:00Z
ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
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am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2294, 3421 Hcrit= 1898 HgtVar= 979 B/S=19 W*= 313 ETAanal:07/22:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -533 (-3.1F) ETA12hr:07/23:00Z
WEDam NWS Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 3857, 4772 Hcrit= 3192 HgtVar= 880 B/S=25 W*= 424 ETA24hr:07/23:12Z
WEDpm NWS Tmax= 68 > Change@TI=+4: +36 (+0.2F) ETA36hr:07/24:00Z
THUam wxc Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 4741, 5403 Hcrit= 3873 HgtVar= 647 B/S=46 W*= 512 ETA48hr:07/24:12Z
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**************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax ***************
22-Jul-2008 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 69.4 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 69.3 F
Surface elev Temp: 54.3 F
Surface elev VirtT: 56.6 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 54.3 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 56.6 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 4411 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 1 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 3071 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 41.0 220 27 108 | 14.9 * . o
17500 40.1 107 | 16.7 * . o
17000 39.2 106 | 18.4 * . o
16500 38.3 105 | 20.2 * . o
16000 37.3 222 24 104 | 21.9 * . o
15500 36.1 103 | 23.4 * . o
15000 35.0 228 22 102 | 24.9 * . o
14500 33.7 101 | 26.3 * . o
14000 32.3 234 20 99 | 27.6 * . o
13500 31.0 98 | 29.0 * . o
13000 29.8 97 | 30.4 * . o
12500 28.6 237 16 96 | 31.9 * . o
12000 27.5 94 | 33.5 * . o
11500 26.4 93 | 35.0 * . o
11000 25.3 231 12 92 | 36.6 * . o
10500 24.5 92 | 38.5 * . o
10000 23.8 234 11 91 | 40.4 * . o
9500 22.5 242 10 90 | 41.8 * . o
9000 21.2 88 | 43.2 * . o
8500 19.8 248 9 87 | 44.4 * . o
8000 17.3 259 7 84 | 44.6 * o
7500 13.8 274 6 81 | 43.8 * . o
7000 10.9 283 7 78 | 43.6 * .o
6500 9.3 291 8 76 | 44.7 * o
6000 9.1 288 8 76 | 47.1 * o
5500 8.5 286 7 76 | 49.2 * .o
5000 7.2 269 6 74 | 50.5 *. o
4500 5.8 257 7 73 | 51.9 * o
4000 5.1 262 9 72 | 53.8 * o
3500 2.8 276 9 70 | 54.2 . *o
3000 -0.5 287 10 67 | 53.6 . o
2500 -4.5 290 13 63 | 52.3 o *
2000 -6.9 286 14 60 | 52.5 o *
1500 -8.1 283 12 59 | 53.9 .o *
1000 -9.0 283 7 58 | 55.8 . o *
500 -10.9 295 2 56 ! 56.5 . o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 3071
97 862 2209 9227 0
85 -902 3973 9227 0
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**************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax *****************
*NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless !
23-Jul-2008 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS11h upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 69.7 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 69.8 F
Surface elev Temp: 67.3 F
Surface elev VirtT: 69.8 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 67.3 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 69.8 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 4358 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 3 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: None
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 37.4 242 17 104 | 11.6 * . o
17500 36.4 103 | 13.3 * . o
17000 35.5 102 | 15.0 * . o
16500 34.5 246 15 101 | 16.7 * . o
16000 33.3 100 | 18.2 * . o
15500 32.2 99 | 19.8 * . o
15000 31.1 248 11 98 | 21.3 * . o
14500 30.1 97 | 23.0 * . o
14000 29.1 96 | 24.7 * . o
13500 28.1 257 7 95 | 26.4 * . o
13000 27.1 94 | 28.0 * . o
12500 26.1 93 | 29.7 * o
12000 25.0 265 5 92 | 31.3 . * o
11500 24.0 91 | 32.9 . * o
11000 22.9 90 | 34.5 . * o
10500 21.8 266 5 89 | 36.1 . * o
10000 20.7 277 5 88 | 37.7 .* o
9500 19.8 278 4 87 | 39.4 .* o
9000 18.0 309 5 85 | 40.3 *. o
8500 16.1 83 | 41.1 * . o
8000 14.1 322 6 81 | 41.7 * . o
7500 11.8 324 6 79 | 42.2 * .o
7000 9.9 326 6 77 | 42.9 * o
6500 8.7 320 7 76 | 44.4 * o
6000 7.7 311 8 75 | 46.1 * .o
5500 6.4 302 9 73 | 47.4 *. o
5000 4.9 295 9 72 | 48.6 * o
4500 4.0 287 9 71 | 50.3 .* o
4000 3.1 271 7 70 | 52.1 .* o
3500 2.5 244 6 69 | 54.2 . *o
3000 2.1 236 6 69 | 56.5 . *o
2500 1.9 243 6 69 | 58.9 . *o
2000 1.7 241 4 69 | 61.4 . *o
1500 1.6 250 4 69 | 64.0 . o
1000 1.5 264 4 69 | 66.6 . o
500 1.1 282 4 68 ! 68.8 . *o
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******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES *************************************
Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/
and at the hourly data site:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201
The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html
The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at
specific locations for various times throughout the day are
available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html
The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for
the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html