DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on SAT Jul 19
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****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only *****************
AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3852,4725 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF
AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3135 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height)
AM HGT VARIABILITY: 925 ft (from TI=0to+4degF)
AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 41 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less)
AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 416 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario)
PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1784 ft @TI=+4degF
Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast)
BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 96% PM= 61%
AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1773 ft LCL= 3124 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1993 ft LCL= 4297 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL)
THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible)
SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3952,4928 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3399 ftMSL
SUN PM CHANGE: -1177 ft @TI=+4
MON AM HEIGHTS: 2764,4035 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2515 ftMSL
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***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************
*** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html ***
NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE
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******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES ***********************************
TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 07/19:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MAPS NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 4068, 4903 Hcrit= 3292 HgtVar= 920 B/S= 9 W*= 428
MAPS WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 3357, 4519 Hcrit= 2876 HgtVar= 793 B/S= 8 W*= 383
MAPS AVG Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 3766, 4711 Hcrit= 3084 HgtVar= 818 B/S= 8 W*= 405
ETA NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 3636, 4547 Hcrit= 2979 HgtVar= 930 B/S=73 W*= 405
ETA WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 3033, 4090 Hcrit= 2518 HgtVar= 910 B/S=65 W*= 361
ETA AVG Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 3366, 4318 Hcrit= 2754 HgtVar= 932 B/S=69 W*= 384
MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
--------------------------------------------------
am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 4068, 4903 Hcrit= 3292 HgtVar= 920 B/S= 9 W*= 428 MAPSanl:07/19:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: -1396 (-7.7F) MAPS10h:07/20:00Z
ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL
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am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 3636, 4547 Hcrit= 2979 HgtVar= 930 B/S=73 W*= 405 ETAanal:07/19:12Z
pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: -2172 (-12.0F) ETA12hr:07/20:00Z
SUNam NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 3952, 4928 Hcrit= 3399 HgtVar= 929 B/S=82 W*= 457 ETA24hr:07/20:12Z
SUNpm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -1177 (-6.2F) ETA36hr:07/21:00Z
MONam wxc Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 2764, 4035 Hcrit= 2515 HgtVar=1298 B/S=22 W*= 368 ETA48hr:07/21:12Z
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**************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax ***************
19-Jul-2008 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 72.4 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 72.4 F
Surface elev Temp: 51.6 F
Surface elev VirtT: 54.0 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 51.6 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 54.0 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 5111 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 4897 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 37.3 290 17 107 | 14.2 * o
17500 36.3 106 | 15.8 * o
17000 35.3 105 | 17.5 . * o
16500 34.2 286 16 104 | 19.2 . * o
16000 33.2 103 | 20.8 . * o
15500 32.2 102 | 22.4 . * o
15000 31.1 284 14 101 | 24.0 . * o
14500 29.9 100 | 25.5 .* o
14000 28.7 288 12 99 | 27.0 .* o
13500 27.5 97 | 28.4 * o
13000 26.2 96 | 29.8 *. o
12500 24.9 311 9 95 | 31.2 * . o
12000 23.4 93 | 32.4 *. o
11500 22.0 347 7 92 | 33.6 *. o
11000 20.5 90 | 34.8 * . o
10500 19.0 014 8 89 | 35.9 * . o
10000 17.6 025 8 88 | 37.3 *. o
9500 16.2 024 9 86 | 38.5 * o
9000 15.3 85 | 40.3 * o
8500 14.1 023 9 84 | 41.8 * o
8000 12.7 019 9 83 | 43.1 .* o
7500 11.1 015 9 81 | 44.1 .* o
7000 8.7 013 8 79 | 44.4 * o
6500 6.4 006 8 76 | 44.7 *. o
6000 4.6 002 8 75 | 45.6 * o
5500 2.9 356 9 73 | 46.6 .*o
5000 0.5 347 10 71 | 46.9 . o
4500 -2.1 336 9 68 | 47.0 .o*
4000 -4.3 308 7 66 | 47.4 . o *
3500 -5.8 293 8 64 | 48.6 .o *
3000 -6.5 280 8 63 | 50.5 . o *
2500 -8.9 290 9 61 | 50.8 .o *
2000 -11.7 291 13 58 | 50.7 o *
1500 -12.3 299 16 58 | 52.7 .o *
1000 -13.7 307 13 56 | 54.0 . o *
500 -15.2 049 7 55 ! 55.2 .o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 4897
96 1773 3124 8965 0
83 -267 5164 8965 0
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**************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax *****************
*NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless !
20-Jul-2008 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data.
Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F
Forecast max VirtT: 72.6 F
Forecast sfc VirtT: 72.8 F
Surface elev Temp: 64.0 F
Surface elev VirtT: 66.9 F
Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1
Station elevation: 344 ftMSL
Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL
Lowest elev Temp: 64.0 F
Lowest elev VirtT: 66.9 F
Ford est. base of any clouds: 4513 ftMSL
Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt
Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt
Convection overcast height: None ftMSL
Convection TI=0 height: 2304 ftMSL
Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------
ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division
----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- ---------------------------------------------
18000 38.1 260 11 108 | 15.2 * o
17500 36.5 107 | 16.4 .* o
17000 35.1 257 10 105 | 17.6 * o
16500 33.7 104 | 18.9 . * o
16000 32.4 246 8 102 | 20.2 . * o
15500 31.2 101 | 21.7 . * o
15000 30.1 100 | 23.2 . * o
14500 29.0 234 7 99 | 24.8 . * o
14000 28.1 98 | 26.6 . * o
13500 27.2 97 | 28.4 . * o
13000 26.4 96 | 30.3 . * o
12500 25.6 214 6 96 | 32.1 . * o
12000 24.8 95 | 34.0 . * o
11500 24.1 94 | 36.0 . * o
11000 23.3 93 | 37.9 . * o
10500 22.4 220 2 92 | 39.6 . * o
10000 21.2 287 1 91 | 41.1 . * o
9500 20.1 339 2 90 | 42.7 . * o
9000 18.8 341 3 89 | 44.0 . * o
8500 17.5 342 4 88 | 45.4 . * o
8000 16.3 86 | 46.8 . * o
7500 14.8 339 4 85 | 48.0 . * o
7000 13.0 336 4 83 | 49.0 . * o
6500 11.2 336 4 81 | 49.8 .* o
6000 9.4 331 5 79 | 50.7 . * o
5500 7.6 328 7 78 | 51.6 . * o
5000 6.2 328 7 76 | 52.8 . * o
4500 5.0 327 8 75 | 54.3 . * o
4000 3.8 326 9 74 | 55.7 . *o
3500 2.7 328 11 73 | 57.3 . *o
3000 1.7 330 12 72 | 59.0 . *o
2500 0.6 338 12 71 | 60.6 . *o
2000 -1.0 332 13 69 | 61.7 . o*
1500 -2.1 327 13 68 | 63.2 . o*
1000 -3.3 318 12 67 | 64.7 . o*
500 -3.7 311 10 66 ! 66.9 . o *
CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding
--------------------------------------------------------------
Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive
or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top
(1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming)
Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive
BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 2304
69 -1396 3700 8917 0
61 -1993 4297 8917 0
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******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES *************************************
Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/
and at the hourly data site:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201
The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html
The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at
specific locations for various times throughout the day are
available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html
The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for
the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at:
http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html
