This is a pickup of a news release from USC-Annenberg's Center for Digital Future. The PDF version is at their website at the address shown below if you'd rather read clean PDF, but this plain-text version can be excerpted and commented upon more readily. Cole is opening an important set of debates. The assertion of timing -- five years or something else -- isn't as important as **what to do about it now.** And do you agree that our privacy is lost? Is that acceptable? Should, or can, legislation restore it? What opportunity is presented by the finding that a majority of people don't trust social media?
-- bill densmore
T
USC ANNENBERG
/
CENTER FOR THE DIGITAL FUTURE
From a report to be issued early January 2012
CONTACT: Justin Pierce
Is America at a Digital Turning Point?
Ten years of studies by the Center for the Digital Future finds
extremes
of benefits and consequences produced by online technology
THIS REPORT: http://www.digitalcenter.org/pdf/10_year_report_release.pdf
June 2011 report: http://www.digitalcenter.org/pdf/10_year_report_release.pdf
Americans love their online technology, but what is the cost to their personal and professional lives?
A decade of studies by the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future creates a portrait of the American Internet user reaping the benefits from going online while at the same time paying a tremendous price in the form of time, privacy, and well-being.
“After 10 years of studies, we find that the strengths as well as the consequences of technology are more profound than ever,” said Jeffrey I. Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future. “At one extreme, we see users with the ability to have constant social connection, unlimited access to information, and unprecedented buying power. At the other extreme, we find extraordinary demands on our time, major concerns about privacy, and vital questions about the proliferation of technology – including a range of issues that didn’t exist 10 years ago.
“We believe that America is at a major digital turning point,” said Cole. “Simply, we find tremendous benefits in online technology, but we also pay a personal price for those benefits. The question is: how high a price are we willing to pay?”
The year-to-year comparisons in the Center’s Digital Future studies involve more than 100 major issues concerning the impact of online technology in the United States. Among the highlights of the findings, along with predictions by Cole for digital directions to come, are these nine major issues:
1. Social media explodes – but most content has no credibility.
Millions of Americans engage in social media every day, yet they believe that the vast majority of the information they find there has almost no credibility.
“It’s no news that social media is the future of communication, but what is not yet fully appreciated is the lack of faith most Internet users have in the accuracy of information they find on social networking sites,” said Cole.
“Our most recent study found that 51 percent of users said that only a small portion or none of the information they see on social networking sites is reliable,” Cole said. “And only 14 percent said that most or all of this information is reliable. This speaks volumes about the credibility of communicating through social networking.”
2. The meaning of “E-Nuff Already” continues to expand.
Five years ago, the Center for the Digital Future coined the term “E-Nuff Already” to describe concern among Internet users about the impact of e-mail on their lives. “E-Nuff Already” has continued to expand and now includes a growing range of issues.
“Back then,” said Cole, “e-mail was the primary concern; now, ‘E-Nuff Already’ has grown to include many services and equipment that has tremendous benefits for users, but is also perceived as encroaching on users’ lives.
“Americans are more connected than ever, but the sheer overwhelm of technology may be reaching a breaking point,” said Cole. “We get too many e-mails, the barrage of texts is constant, we carry multiple electronic devices, and new services and gadgets continue to be produced. How long will it be before Americans again say ‘E-Nuff Already?’”
3. The desktop PC is dead;
long live the tablet.
Over the next three years, according to Cole, the
tablet will become the primary tool for personal computing. Use of a desktop PC
will dwindle to only 4-6 percent of computer users – writers, gamers,
programmers, analysts, scientists, and financial planners – and laptop use will
decline as well.
“The tablet is such an inviting gadget,” said Cole. “The desktop PC is a ‘lean forward’ device – a tool that sits on a desk and forces users to come to it. The tablet has a ‘lean-back’ allure -- more convenient and accessible than laptops and much more engaging to use. For the vast majority of Americans, the tablet will be the computer tool of choice by the middle of the decade, while the desktop PC fades away.
“We don’t see a negative consequence in the move to tablets,” said Cole, “but the coming dominance of tablets will create major shifts in how, when, and why Americans go online – changes even more significant than the emergence of the laptop.”
4. Work is increasingly a
24/7 experience.
Personal computers and online technology have created increased efficiency and greater productivity in the workplace. However, for many employees, the price of that efficiency also includes the growing presence of work in their lives away from the office.
“Decades ago, we thought that computers would be labor-saving devices,” Cole said. “It’s true that technology makes us more productive, but with that productivity comes greater expectations about how we work and when we work.
“For many workers – blue-collar and white-collar alike -- technology makes them accountable to their work all the time,” said Cole. “Is it reasonable to assume that employment is a 24/7 experience?”
5. Most print newspapers
will be gone in five years.
“Circulation of print newspapers continues to plummet, and we believe that the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium – the largest and the smallest,” said Cole. It’s likely that only four major daily newspapers will continue in print form: The New York Times, USA Today, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the other extreme, local weekly newspapers may still survive.
“The impending death of the American print newspaper continues to raise many questions,”
Cole said. “Will media organizations survive and thrive when they move exclusively to online availability? How will the changing delivery of content affect the quality and depth of journalism?”
6. Our privacy is lost.
Perhaps
the biggest price that Americans pay for Internet use is the loss of their
personal privacy – in particular, as a result of the growing trend of
information-gathering about online behavior.
“The issue of privacy is simple – if you go online for anything at all, your privacy is gone,” said Cole. “Americans love that they can buy online, look for information online, and join social communities online. But the price we pay is that we are monitored constantly; private organizations know everything there is to know about us: our interests, our buying preferences, our behavior, and our beliefs.
“Americans are clearly concerned about this,” Cole said. “Our latest Digital Future study found that almost half of users age 16 and older are worried about companies checking what they do online; by comparison, 38 percent said that the government checking on them is a concern.”
7. The Internet’s role in the American political process
is still a question.
A decade of Digital Future Studies consistently produced findings that Americans believe the Internet is important in political campaigns and helping people to understand politics, but online technology still has almost no role in affecting political power or giving individuals more say in what their government does.
“Even though online outreach to voters continues to expand, and Internet fundraising is a major priority for candidates, the Internet is not yet considered a tool that voters can use to gain more political power or influence,” Cole said. “We believe that this is changing, and over the next two election cycles we see the Internet becoming a major factor in changing the political landscape.”
8. The Internet will
continue to create shifts in buying habits, at the expense of traditional
brick-and-mortar retail.
The
most current Digital Future Study found that 68 percent of Americans buy online,
and 70 percent of online buyers said their online purchasing reduces their
buying in traditional retail stores.
“We are seeing only the beginning of the shift in American purchasing habits brought by the Internet,” Cole said. “Five years from now, the traditional retail landscape will be completely different than it is today.”
9. What comes next?
The
most interesting topic about the impact of online technology on America is the
undiscovered trend yet to come, said Cole.
“In 2006, YouTube and Twitter had just been born, and Facebook was a toddler,” said Cole. “A half-decade ago, who would have thought that these nascent technologies would become the standard for social communication in 2011? The next major online trend is being developed right now by a new crop of Internet visionaries just waiting to be heard.”
The Center for the Digital Future is a unit in the USC Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism.
ABOUT THE REPORT AUTHOR:
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Jeffrey Cole |
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Director Jeffrey Cole has been at the forefront of media and communication technology policy issues in both the United States and internationally for the past 25 years. In July 2004 Dr. Cole joined the USC Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism as Director of the newly formed Center for the Digital Future and as a Research Professor. Founded on the belief that the best policy arises from the best information, the Center is a research and policy institute committed to work that has a real and beneficial effect on people's lives, while seeking to maximize the positive potential of the mass media and our rapidly evolving communication technologies. Prior to joining USC, Dr. Cole was a longtime member of the UCLA faculty and served as Director of the UCLA Center for Communication Policy, based in the Anderson Graduate School of Management. At UCLA and now at USC Annenberg, Cole founded and directs the World Internet Project, a long-term longitudinal look at the effects of computer and Internet technology on all aspects of society, which is conducted in over 20 countries. At the announcement of the project in June 1999, Vice President Al Gore praised Cole as a "true visionary providing the public with information on how to understand the impact of media." Cole was Principal Investigator of the Network Television Violence Monitoring Project which in 1995, 1996 and 1997 issued annual reports to the television networks, Congress and the nation. Upon the release of the 1996 report, Cole held a joint press conference with President Bill Clinton, who referred to the Center for Communication Policy as "the premier educational institution setting trends in entertainment." Nationwide there was unanimous praise for the quality of the reports and their contribution to the television violence debate. Cole has testified before Congress on television issues and has spoken as a keynote and panel member at more than 200 conferences on communications issues. He has worked with both the Clinton and George W. Bush White House on media and telecommunications issues, including detailed briefings on the Center's work. In 1994, 1995 and 1996 the Center co-authored with U.S. News & World Report national surveys examining attitudes and values of decision-makers in the entertainment industry. In 1994 the Center co-sponsored "The Superhighway Summit" in UCLA's Royce Hall with the leaders of most of the nation's major media companies. For the annual Family Reunion Conferences in Nashville, Tennessee, Cole has worked with Vice President Gore to produce films opening the 1995 through 2002 conferences. The annual films were screened before an audience of 1,400 including the Vice President and President Clinton. Cole has lectured extensively in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, Australia and throughout the U.S. He regularly consults with top government officials and leaders of the telecommunications industries throughout the world on communications issues. He currently is a member of the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) Forum Programme Committee. He was a member of the Executive Committee of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS) from 1997 to 2001 and was the founding governor of the ATAS Interactive Media Peer Group. Over the past 31 years, Cole has taught to over 35,000 students. In 1987 he received UCLA's Distinguished Teaching Award. |
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This is a pickup of a news release from USC-Annenberg's Center for Digital Future. The PDF version is at their website at the address shown below if you'd rather read clean PDF, but this plain-text version can be excerpted and commented upon more readily. Cole is opening an important set of debates. The assertion of timing -- five years or something else -- isn't as important as **what to do about it now.** And do you agree that our privacy is lost? Is that acceptable? Should, or can, legislation restore it? What opportunity is presented by the finding that a majority of people don't trust social media?
-- bill densmoreT
<clip_image002.gif>USC ANNENBERG /
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As to the chart … 14% profit margin is nothing sneeze at (unless you're a greedy stockholder). Supermarkets have operated at about 2% for decades, and I don't hear drumbeats that most supermarkets will be gone in 5 (or 10 or 20) years. Similarly, most department stores (Sears, Penneys, Macys, etc.) have survived on about 6% margins the past decade or two. Now Sears might fall away, but I suspect we'll still have WalMart, Sam's Club, Macy's, Kohl's and other department stores.
There used to be a time when it was just fine as long as income exceeded expenses. If you could pay the staff and the bills, and put some away for capital expenditures or repairs, life was good. If you could put away a little more, for expansion, life was great. If you could put away even more, for a villa in Italy, a plane and a lake house, well, then, nirvana.
Expectations have changed markedly in the past half century, along with the types of ownership.
Brian Steffens
From: Jane Stevens <jste...@mmjourno.com<mailto:jste...@mmjourno.com>>
Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2011 11:58:44 -0800
To: Bill Densmore <wpden...@gmail.com<mailto:wpden...@gmail.com>>
Cc: <jtm...@googlegroups.com<mailto:jtm...@googlegroups.com>>
Subject: Re: {JTM} QUESTION: Do you buy the assertion by Jeff Cole at USC-Annenberg in an upcoming paper that many dailies will be OOB in five years? Our privacy lost, no trust in social media? Why or why not? What to do?
Yes, I believe that most print newspapers will be gone in five years. Two other posts underlined that:
http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/2011/12/newspaper-job-cuts-surged-30-in-2011.html and this revealing chart:
http://www.poynter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Earl-EBITDAchart1.jpg
I agree that our concept of privacy is changing. Some people will say it's lost; others won't know what those people are talking about.
The issue, as I read it, is that most people don't trust the content on social media, not social media itself. That's a big distinction when you consider how many people use social media.
Cheers, Jane
Jane E. Stevens
ACEsTooHigh.com<http://acestoohigh.com>
ReJurno.com<http://rejurno.com>
707-495-1112 (cell)
-- bill densmore
T
CONTACT: Justin Pierce
9. What comes next?
ABOUT THE REPORT AUTHOR:
Jeffrey Cole
Director
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And one might argue that the industry brought this upon themselves (the debt retirement issue), much like the banks bear much of the responsibility for their current woes. Far fewer papers were beholden to shareholders in the 60s and early 70s when newspapers "peaked." Not that independent ownership was good or bad, but they answered to themselves, with a vested interest in their communities.
While advertising is declining, opportunities for revenue are not. Any industry that sticks with just one benefactor will eventually perish. The industry would benefit from vision, leadership and a willingness to embrace change … qualities that seem in short supply the past couple of decades. Putting out a newspapers requires an assembly line approach to maximize efficiencies. But an assembly line mentality tends to stymie innovation.
Brian
From: Tom Stites <t...@tomstites.com<mailto:t...@tomstites.com>>
Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2011 13:37:27 -0500
To: Journalism That Matters <jtm...@googlegroups.com<mailto:jtm...@googlegroups.com>>
Subject: Re: {JTM} QUESTION: Do you buy the assertion by Jeff Cole at USC-Annenberg in an upcoming paper that many dailies will be OOB in five years? Our privacy lost, no trust in social media? Why or why not? What to do?
Tom
josh
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Rob Kall is executive editor, publisher and site architect of OpEdNews.com, Host of the Rob Kall Bottom Up Radio Show (WNJC 1360 AM),
EBITDA aside, newspapers historically enjoyed substantial profits and
continued to have ambitious goals, even though circulation has been
declining since the 1940s and certainly as other media formats
matured. Somewhere I read that across the categories of products, the
average profit margin is something like 6-7%.
Probably because it was thought that they would be around forever,
being involved in a noble effort and a product everyone was connected
with somehow, and subscribing to the newspaper was part of being an
informed citizen. So it was an asset to leverage against.
Plenty of blame to go around here, but it's time to address current
concerns: arguably their most valuable asset is their content. And
for so long, the focus was on the daily 'miracle' and trucking it to
the doorstep and moving on to the next day's production. All of that
'old stuff,' the archives, has a lot of value to researchers,
scholars, genealogies, and anyone who needs fact-checked, edited
content delivered on demand to their desktop (and now increasingly,
mobile device or tablet). Are publishers making the most of these
opportunities?
I'm involved in some conversations(and actual projects) to preserve
born-digital content as well as endangered collections. The concern
among historians, academics, researchers, and really to all of us, is
that we need to do more to save this material. When it is a digital
asset, there are more opportunities for it, and potential revenue.
It's not huge, but it is just one more revenue stream to help sustain
the publishers.
I worry about a lot of the news startups, they are doing important
work to inform their communities. From initial conversations we had
at JTM and in other places, it seemed like there needed to be more
awareness of the information economy(not very well understood by
legacy media, let alone startups). In ensuring that their news is
accessible, and archived, and delivered to aggregators, on their radar
screens?
Leigh
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The Christian Science Monitor
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