Here is an article on Obama's and Hillary's ignorance about the
dangers of biofuels! We are doomed because our politicians, even the
better ones, do not understand science and mathematics! They are all
leading us to a world food crisis and mass starvation, and they don't
even know it!
http://www.swans.com/library/art14/mdolin29.html
Clinton And Obama On Iran And Biofuels
by Michael Doliner
(Swans - January 14, 2008) Controlling Middle East oil is the
primary directive and purpose of the American Imperial policy. As long
as the United States continues to maintain the "Empire of Bases" it
must control this resource. Oil is "the prize." It is for control of
oil that we invaded Iraq and now threaten Iran. The disaster of the
Iraq occupation, which leaves American troops in Iraq but little
American influence over events except what influence Bush can buy, is
insufficient to control the Middle East. Already, independent Iran is
increasing its influence (1) throughout the Persian Gulf and beyond.
(2) If the United States wants to continue its more than a century-
long Imperial policy it will have to eliminate Iran's independence.
But any attack on Iran would likely end in worldwide catastrophe.
Hence maintenance of America's Empire is no longer possible. But in
our denial of this fact we are in danger of lashing out at Iran in a
futile, potentially apocalyptic attack. How will the current crop of
candidates handle this situation? Will they be more creative than
their stand on the destructive policies they advocate on energy
independence?
Let's consider Obama first. Here is what his Web site says:
Diplomacy: Obama is the only major candidate who supports tough,
direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions. Now is
the time to pressure Iran directly to change their troubling behavior.
Obama would offer the Iranian regime a choice. If Iran abandons its
nuclear program and support for terrorism, we will offer incentives
like membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments,
and a move toward normal diplomatic relations. If Iran continues its
troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and
political isolation. Seeking this kind of comprehensive settlement
with Iran is our best way to make progress. (3)
The problem with Iran is neither its perfectly legal nuclear program,
nor its support for Hezbollah, but its very existence. Again, as long
as an independent Iran exists the United States will not be able to
control Middle East oil. Iran will not negotiate away its legal
nuclear program, and will not stop supporting Hezbollah in their
resistance to Israel's attacks on Lebanon. And Iran will certainly not
negotiate away its own existence. Rapprochement between Russia and
Iran, and Iran and China, make any attempt to isolate Iran silly.
Obama's approach is destined to fail. He seems like a pretty smart
man, so we might conclude that he intends to fail. After all it is one
of the strange clevernesses of presidents that they engage in
diplomatic maneuvers that they intend to fail. But what then? Either
he will have to abandon the long Imperial policy or he will have to
try to destroy Iran. But if he intends to abandon the Imperial policy
why go through the charade of attempting to negotiate non-negotiable
demands and engaging in diplomacy intended to fail? For intended
failure is designed to justify invoking a "last resort," in this case
attack. Does that mean he actually contemplates an attack on Iran?
Although the Imperial policy is doomed, nobody, certainly no
president, can end the American Imperial policy by himself. This
policy is very deep within the culture of the American ruling elites.
(4) Maintenance of this policy is an article of faith there, and
anyone who questioned it would only be risking his own position. As
with the questions raised about the "free market" policies of the
World Bank and International Monetary Fund that discredited them,
questions about the American Empire will have to come from outside. It
will be extremely difficult to end this policy in any case, but
absolutely impossible unless the policy is exposed to public view.
Right now the American Empire is the empire that dare not speak its
name. Only if the continuation of the Empire becomes an open political
question can the United States decide to abandon it.
No candidate could raise this question during the campaign, but he
could leave room for it. Obama's position requires confrontation and
phony diplomacy and so does not leave this room. His only option, when
all his negotiations and sanctions fail, will be to attack Iran. For
Obama will not, like Bush, be able to issue threats and do nothing.
Threats, when not carried out, lose their power. Even now such threats
no longer frighten Iran and are for American domestic consumption
only. Gradually, control of the Middle East will slip away as not only
Iran but former American client states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
make deals with China and India and cut American corporations out
either completely or in part. Already such deals are happening and
Iran has stopped selling oil for dollars. We are not where we were
when Bush took office. The present political culture of the United
States will not allow control of the Middle East to just slip away.
The attack on Iran simply awaits some plausible pretext. Only if the
Empire itself is questioned can anyone stop it. Obama, by opting for
"tough, direct presidential diplomacy" intended to fail, has made it
impossible to do what is needed -- namely, acknowledge the Empire's
existence, admit the Empire's necessary end, and refrain from the
futile, barbaric, horribly risky attack on Iran.
What about Hillary Clinton? Surprisingly, Clinton has no policy
position on Iran on her official Web site. She does have a speech she
gave on February 14, 2007. It is a good illustration of what we can
expect from her. Here is a quote:
Now, make no mistake, Iran poses a threat to our allies and our
interests in the region and beyond, including the United States. The
Iranian president has held a conference denying the Holocaust and has
issued bellicose statement after bellicose statement calling for
Israel and the United States to be wiped off the map. His statements
are even more disturbing and urgent when viewed in the context of the
regime's request to acquire nuclear weapons. The regime also uses its
influence and resources in the region to support terrorist elements
that attack Israel. Hezbollah's attack on Israel this summer, using
Iranian weapons, clearly demonstrates Iran's malevolent influence even
beyond its borders. (5)
Mrs. Clinton does not tell us, in this quote, what she plans to do
about Iran, but her lies and distortions give us a good idea. She
plans to continue a hostile attitude. We can also see that she plans
to continue the politics of lying and deception. But does she just
plan to talk tough, engage in pointless diplomacy intended to fail,
and try to muddle through, or does she plan to attack? One can read
through this speech without getting any clear answer to this question.
She goes on:
But America must proceed deliberately and wisely, and we must proceed
as a unified nation. The smartest and strongest policy will be one
forged through the institutions of our democracy. That is the genius
of our American system and our constitutional duty. We have witnessed
these past six years-- until the most recent election of a new
Congress by the American people-- the cost of congressional
dereliction of its oversight duty, a vital role entrusted to Congress
by our constituents, enshrined in, and even required by our
Constitution.
Clearly Mrs. Clinton has no plan. Or is it merely that she is here
talking as a senator and saying, with all these words, that the Senate
and House are important? The bloated meaninglessness of her words is
distressing. Such fuzz cannot be a cover for clear thinking, for her
position is that of someone who does not even know what is at stake
and wants to pass the decision on to someone else. Mrs. Clinton is
intellectually bankrupt. Here is a segment of her Iraq policy taken
from her Web site:
The most important part of Hillary's plan is the first: to end our
military engagement in Iraq's civil war and immediately start bringing
our troops home. As president, one of Hillary's first official actions
would be to convene the Joint Chiefs of Staff, her Secretary of
Defense, and her National Security Council. She would direct them to
draw up a clear, viable plan to bring our troops home starting with
the first 60 days of her Administration. She would also direct the
Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs to
prepare a comprehensive plan to provide the highest quality health
care and benefits to every service member -- including every member of
the National Guard and Reserves -- and their families. (6)
Once again she has no plan other than to ask a lot of officials to get
together and make a plan. Her plan is to plan. This paragraph is
filled with a lawyer's sneaky evasions. Notice "start" and "starting."
She is promising only to have a convention plan, not to carry out
those plans. Nothing anywhere suggests that she knows why we are
there. She criticizes the Bush administration only for incompetence
and its failure to consult Congress. That the United States has an
Empire, that control of Middle East oil is essential to that Empire's
maintenance, that Iran's independent existence makes this control
impossible, and that any attack on Iran would be a disaster, seems to
be completely beyond her. She has tried to say nothing for so long
that she has nothing to say.
Her rhetoric is a good example of the kind of obfuscation that has
long hidden the Empire's existence. It reveals, once again, the
technique of offering efforts designed to fail -- flurries of activity
that result in nothing. Fake diplomatic initiatives, convening of
councils, military investigations into their own possible war crimes,
and the initiation of "peace processes" (since when did peace become a
process?) and "road maps" all fall into this category. Hillary
Clinton's health care initiative at the beginning of her husband's
administration is a perfect example of such sound and fury signifying
nothing. And this is what she proposes to do in the Middle East.
The next president's approach to Iran is far from the only important
item on his or her agenda, but it is a crucial one. It is unfair to
expect a candidate to expose the Empire. A really successful candidate
must realize that he or she cannot oppose the rich and powerful, but
must persuade them that the Empire must end. Given the turmoil of the
Bush administration and the yawning abyss that seems to lie just ahead
of us, this might not be as hard as it seems. The Bush
administration's on-again-off-again attack plans reveal an
understanding within at least some ruling circles of the disaster an
attack on Iran would be. Although it is just one step from the
impossibility of an attack on Iran to the nonviability of the Empire
as a whole, the ruling class cannot take this step. They need the
Empire to be exposed to allow them to do what they, if they were truly
enlightened, would want to do anyway -- namely, end it and return
America to its non-interventionist tradition. To attack Iran is to
endanger the whole world, and no one who wants civilization to
continue, not even the rich and powerful, can want that, right?
Nevertheless this attack has every possibility of happening; indeed,
it will happen if the ruling circles try to maintain their very well
established American Empire. Even though this Empire is crumbling
everywhere, and even though an attack on Iran would not save the
Empire, and even though the Empire is enormously expensive rather than
profitable, and even though its end is absolutely necessary to provide
resources to mitigate the effects of the other enormous problems
facing the country and the world, and even though America's return to
its non-interventionist roots would end the terrorist threat, the rich
and powerful cannot even imagine ending the Empire. For the need to
continue the Empire is a bedrock assumption. Since the ruling circles
by themselves are powerless to stop maintaining the Empire, we can
only restrain an attack on Iran, if at all, by exposing the Empire and
its nonviability and thereby persuading the rich and powerful to give
it up. To be sure, the idea of convincing the rich and powerful to
abandon the American Empire, the maintenance of which has been their
primary interest for more than a century, is an outrageously bold
plan. Admittedly, it is a very long shot. It would require revising
the history of the twentieth century. But there is no other
alternative. Maintenance of the Empire requires a catastrophic attack
on Iran, which in any case is destined to fail of its objective. Any
attempt to end the war without ending the Empire is doomed to
failure.
I realize that what I am asking is enormous, and many will suggest
that I stick to the politically possible, but what we think of as
politically possible is not good enough. In fact it is no good
whatsoever. We need a radical turn. The choice is between decisive
action and the illusion of drift that ends eventually in world war.
Not just individual policies, but the entire framework of looking at
them must change. The terms of America's place within the world must
change with the next administration.
This in itself should be enough to tell that neither Obama nor Clinton
will do. But let us look at another related topic, energy policy.
Conventional oil, the kind that bubbles up when you punch a hole on
dry land or in relatively shallow water, peaked at 74,298,000 barrels
per day in May of 2005. (7) We have never pumped more than we did
then, and it's not likely that we will again. The world now uses
roughly 88,000,000 barrels a day and makes up the difference with
unconventional oil, the drawing down of stocks, and the production of
biofuels. Because of this shortfall the US production of biofuels is
growing very rapidly. In doing this we are converting food into fuel.
"Starting out from 7% in 1998, the percentage of the corn crop covered
by ethanol plant capacity in progress has now reached 37-38% of the
corn crop." The reference is to "Fermenting the Food Supply" by Stuart
Staniford (The Oil Drum, January 7, 2008), one of the best researchers
on peak oil, in my opinion. I urge everyone to look at this article.
(8) Its argument is long, but straightforward. Staniford convincingly
shows what one would expect, namely that biofuel growth correlates
with its profitability, that is, with the cost of oil, but also corn
prices. This obviously ties corn prices to oil prices. Staniford
continues:
That's bad news because demand for oil is extremely inelastic, and the
world is struggling to grow the supply of it at present, so over the
medium term it seems fairly plausible that there will be further rises
in oil prices. As we will see shortly, one can throw the entire global
food supply at our fuel problems and still only make a modest impact
on them...You can immediately see the problem here. The biofuel
potential of the entire human food supply is quite a small amount of
energy compared to the global oil supply -- somewhere between 15-20%
on a volumetric basis, so 10-15% on an energy basis. If you look at
the rate of growth from the mid 1980s to 2000 (and it would be similar
to 2005 but the graph doesn't go that far), we were requiring about an
additional 10mbd per decade. So if we continue to try to drive more at
historical rates of growth, eg as the middle class in China, India,
and other developing countries continue to build roads and get cars,
while our oil supply is stagnant, we can only get about a decade or
thereabouts from converting our entire food supply to fuel....
However, just because it's not a very good idea globally, doesn't mean
it wouldn't be profitable to the folks doing the conversion.
So here is the problem. If the market is allowed to dictate what is
and is not done, an enormous amount of the world's food supply will be
converted into ethanol. Those who drive can pay more than those who
eat. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions of people will starve.
This will be an absolute disaster for the poorer parts of the world,
but will also be a disaster for the United States. Given the growth
rates for ethanol production this problem will surface within five
years. The only possibilities for preventing mass starvation are
drastic drops in oil price, reduction in fuel use, or a change in
public policy. The first two are extremely unlikely. What about the
third?
How do Obama and Clinton approach the production of biofuels? Here is
Obama:
Expand Locally-Owned Biofuel Refineries: Less than 10 percent of new
ethanol production today is from farmer-owned refineries. New ethanol
refineries help jumpstart rural economies. Obama will create a number
of incentives for local communities to invest in their biofuels
refineries. (9)
And Clinton:
Aggressive action to transition our economy toward renewable energy
sources, with renewables generating 25 percent of electricity by 2025
and with 60 billion gallons of home-grown biofuels available for cars
and trucks by 2030. (10)
Sixty billion gallons per year is roughly four times what we produce
today. Given the problems with cellulosic ethanol this seems entirely
impossible. Is it unrealistic to expect busy candidates to be aware of
the catastrophic consequences of their policies? If so then the
continuation of civilization is unrealistic. As Staniford has clearly
shown, the only possibility of curbing the biofuels catastrophe is in
a change in public policy. This will not be easy. No candidate wants
to tell the American people that they will have to use less, lots
less, and live differently, lots differently. But just that is what is
required. Obama and Clinton both have grandiose plans for developing
new energy sources. But anyone who understands the scale of the
problem realizes that none of this will work, and facing the fact that
it won't work is crucial to developing a plan for using less. Obama
and Clinton are completely out of their depth.
It is hard to realize just how serious the situation is. It is natural
to think that things will go along pretty much as they have gone along
in the recent past. They won't.
Resources
1. See
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20080104/cm_csm/ylynch_1 (back)
2. See
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA05Ak03.html
(back)
3. See
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreignpolicy/ (back)
4. See
http://www.mises.org/books/perpetual.pdf (large PDF document)
(back)
5. See
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/speech/view/?id=1328
(back)
6. See
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/iraq/ (back)
7. See
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another nail in the
coffin.pdf (PDF document): "Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case
Against Peak Oil," Matthew R. Simmons, November 16, 2007.
[Excerpt:] "Over time, however, the facts point to the glaring and
inconvenient reality that the May 2005 crude production represented an
all-time high, even though it barely exceeded 74 million barrels a day
-- 74,298,000/day according to the EIA. April, May and December 2005
were the first three months in the 150-year history of oil when the
world ever produced this much oil. In July 2006, global crude once
more inched above the 74 million barrel a day high-water mark. No
other monthly report before or since shows oil produced at or above
the 74 million barrel per day mark.
As months passed, the EIA revisions ended through 2006 data. As we
near the end of 2007, May 2005 is still the magical 'moment in time'
when global crude oil peaked at 74.3 million barrels a day. Some
miracle series of new oil fields could suddenly be found and quickly
brought on to production, but the more time that passes, the less
likely this is."
[...]
[The author concludes:] "In the meantime, the world is desperately in
need of a sustainable series of new energy sources and urgent adoption
of conservation measures to wean 'us' all from a chronic addiction not
just to oil, but all three forms of fossil fuels. Peak Oil is probably
now past-tense. We have no Plan B. Natural gas and possibly peak use
of quality coal and uranium might be lurking in Peak Oil's shadow.
The world sleep-walked for three decades while believing all natural
resources would last as long as any of us were around. The important
Limits to Growth book published by the Club of Rome in 1972 was both
misunderstood and ultimately ridiculed.
As our global appetite for energy grew, the era of high quality
hydrocarbon energy entered its twilight era. The nub of the world's
most singular problem is to insure we can sustain the 21 st century
without experiencing social chaos and ultimately a widespread
geopolitical conflict or war. This, in essence, is embodied in the
strange debate about what is known as Peak Oil." " (back)
8. See
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2431 (back)
9. See
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/ (back)
10. See
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/energy/ (back)
------------------------
Human civilization's only hope to survive is nuclear power, not
biofuels which will only cause mass starvation. See the pro nuclear
argument at:
http://home.att.net/~meditation/bio-fuel-hoax.html -
THE BIOFUEL HOAX IS CAUSING A WORLD FOOD CRISIS
Christopher Calder