App engine is in google beta. I don't think you'll get the kind of
answer you are looking for. Certainly you won't get any one guessing
as to how many serious problems will occur a year.
I can say though as another startup business, we decided to go with
app engine and I can't say we run into any reliability problems often.
We have never lost data and outages are few and far between. My
biggest issue at the moment is the relatively slow data store
performance (which Google says they are addressing).
To be fair, we are in beta ourselves and don't have an extensive user
base to thoroughly test things for us all the time.