Emkay Reports [ntpc maruti suzuki wipro hindustan unilever colgate ipca ballarpur bank of baroda[
Deepak Vaishnav
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NTPC |
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In line, maintain estimates and Buy rating |
BUY
CMP: Rs 179 Target Price: Rs 204
n 2Q12 PAT of Rs24.2bn is above est. mainly due to previous yr sales of Rs7.6bn. Adjusting for one offs (previous yr sales is not considered to be one-off), APAT stood at Rs25.4bn, in line
n Has commissioned 660MW and commercialized 1,160MW in YTDFY12 against target commissioning of 4,320MW. Mgmt maintained its target in the concall. We reiterate FY12 is sunset yr of 80IA – expect positive surprises in COD
n Highlights - (1) PAF of coal plants low at 83.4% but no under-recoveries as cumulative PAF for 1H12 above 85% level and (2) mgmt guided for 90%+ PAF in FY12. Maintain estimates
n Positive news to continue 1) higher COD in FY12-sunset yr of 80IA, (2) FY12/13 grossing & (3) in medium-term, acquiring distressed plants. Maintain Buy; Risk - rising interest rates
Regards,
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Amit Golchha |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : amit.g...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 408 | DID : 66242408 | Mob : +919833357365 | |
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Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. |
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Downside risk to earnings persists, Downgrade to HOLD |
HOLD
CMP: Rs1,128 Target Price: Rs1,140
n Results below est. EBIDTA at Rs 5.2bn (est - Rs 5.8bn) and APAT at Rs 2.6bn (est. - Rs 3.4bn). Consider MTM (Rs 1bn) on royalty as normal exp. as payment due in Nov 2011
n Demand is skewed towards diesel vehicles. Sales of petrol vehicles registered decline in 1HFY12. Slower ramp up at Manesar plant to limit optimal utilization in the near term
n Lower FY12/FY13 vols. by 7.9%/2.4% to 1.19/1.5 mn units, EPS by 20%/10% to Rs 63.9/77.6. Factoring in Re/JPY at 1.7/1.64 vs 1.75/1.7 for FY12/13
n Downgrade to HOLD, see downside risks from lower volumes. Near term upsides arise from depreciating Yen (4% in one day) as MSIL will start hedging its 2HFY12 exposure
Regards,
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Chirag Shah |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : chira...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 252 | DID : 66121252 | Mob : +919820580701 | |
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Wipro Ltd |
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Some cheer on revenue growth, retain REDUCE |
REDUCE
CMP: Rs368 Target Price: Rs360
n Sep’11 qtr revenue performance was a tad better than expectations and is nearly the 1st beat in 6 qtrs albeit aided by strong performance in the recently acquired SAIC entity
n IT svcs mgns declined by ~220 bps QoQ( V/s exp of -190 bps) despite strong revenues, weak currency impacted by full impact of wage increments and SAIC consolidation
n Dec’11 quarter revenue guidance of ~2-4% QoQ is decent however fares unfavorably to peer Infosys (+3.2-5.4% QoQ)
n Retain REDUCE with a revised TP of Rs 360 (V/s Rs 320 earlier) as we raise our FY12/13E EPS by 2/8.6% driven largely by lower currency resets
Regards,
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Manik Taneja |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : manik....@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 253 | DID : 66121253 | Mob : +919833934924 | |
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Hindustan Unilever |
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All levers played out, Downgrade to HOLD |
HOLD
CMP: Rs375 Target Price: Rs347
n Results beat our expectations – Sales growth of 17.8% to Rs 56bn driven by 9.8% volume growth and APAT growth of 21.7% to Rs 6.9bn
n Soaps and detergents outshine – revenue growth of 21.8% with PBIT margin expansion of 60bps yoy and 320bps qoq –this catalyst played out earlier than expected
n We believe all the upgrade catalysts have played out and do not see further catalysts in the near term. At CMP, we feel there is limited upside left, if any
n While we raise our FY12E/13E EPS by 5.9% to Rs 11.8 and by 5.6% to Rs 13.3, respectively, we downgrade the stock to HOLD with a revised TP of Rs 347/share
Regards,
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Pritesh Chheda |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email: pritesh...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91- 22- 6612 1212 | Extn. : 273 | DID : +91-22- 6612 1273 | Mob : +91 98208 07241 |
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Sweta Jain |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : sweta...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-6612 1212 | Extn. : 479 | DID : 6624 2479 | Mob : +9198923 17596 | |
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Colgate-Palmolive |
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Rich valuations… maintain Reduce |
REDUCE
CMP: Rs1,003 Target Price: Rs826
n Sales growth at 19% to Rs 6.6bn, higher than our expectations, is driven by 13% volume growth. APAT (ex-VRS of Rs82mn) at Rs 1.0 bn is marginally below our estimates
n Volume market shares in key categories of toothpastes and toothbrush witness a decline – 70 bps to 53% and 420 bps and 36.3%, respectively
n While higher realizations offset input cost pressure, higher A&P spends resulted in 196bps decline in operating margins to 18.4%.
n Reduce FY12E/FY13E EPS by 4% and 9% to Rs 31.4 and Rs 34.3, respectively. Maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 826/share
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Ipca Laboratories Ltd |
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Rocking Performance – Maintain Buy |
BUY
CMP: Rs254 Target Price: Rs392
n IPCA’s Q2FY12 results were above expectations with a) Revenues at Rs6.2bn (up 20% YoY), b) EBITDA at Rs1.5bn (up 34% YoY) and c) APAT at Rs1bn (up 61% YoY)
n Loss of anti-malarial sales in domestic market was more than compensated by institutional anti-malarial sales in African market
n Management has guided for 20% growth in top-line in H2FY12 and 1% improvement in overall EBITDA margins in FY12
n Maintain Buy with a target of Rs392 (14xFY13 EPS)
Regards,
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Deepak Malik |
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Senior Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : deepak...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 257 | DID : 66121257 | Mob : +91 9769811227 | |
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Ballarpur Industries |
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Margins disappoint, reduce estimates |
ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs30 Target Price: Rs35
n Q1FY12 results disappointed due to margin pressures. Revenues of Rs 11.1bn, +9% yoy were in line however APAT of Rs 254mn, -38% yoy disappointed due to lower margins
n Paper realizations increased by 11% yoy/ 3% qoq to Rs 45,000/mt however inventory builtup of 9,000mt impacted sales volumes at 195,800 mt, flat yoy / -5.7% qoq
n Pulp realizations declined from their peak of Rs 67,700 / mt in Q4FY11 to Rs 56,000/mt in line with estimates. Pulp reported margins of 29.5%
n We have reduced our FY12 est by 24% to Rs 3.1 due to current margin pressure while expect margins to improve from Q3FY12 on commissioning of pulp plant
Regards,
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Rohan Gupta |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : rohan...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 248 | DID : 66121248 | Mob : +919619321479 | |
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Bank of Baroda |
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Stable quarter |
ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs772 Target Price: Rs950
n BOB’s Q2FY12 NII at Rs25.7bn and PAT at Rs11.6bn above our/consensus estimates. PAT further aided by higher non-interest income
n Balance sheet expanded 4.7% sequentially; growth in deposits / loans came in at 5.2% / 2.9% qoq respectively. Domestic NIM up 28bps qoq to 3.67%
n Asset quality remains stable sequentially. Slippages came in at Rs4.9bn (0.9% annualized). However, reco/upgrade rates equally lower at 24% of opening GNPAs
n Valuations at 1.3x/1.1x FY12E/FY13E ABV. Upgrade to ACCUMULATE on recent correction with price target of Rs950
Regards,
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Kashyap Jhaveri |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : kashyap...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-6612 1212 | Extn. : 249 | DID : +91-22-6612 1249 | Mob : +91-98202 41712 | Fax : +91-22-6624 2410 | |
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