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India Economics : Moderation in 3QFY12 GDP to 6.1% Priced In - Implementation of PMO’s Recent Measures Key for FY13 Upgrades
· 3QFY12 GDP slows to 6.1% — Following the 7.7% and 6.9% growth in 1Q and 2QFY12 respectively, GDP growth slowed further to 6.1%YoY during 3QFY12 ( Citi & Consensus: 6.3%). Cumulative 9MFY12 growth was 6.9%YoY, vs. 8.1% last year. This implies that, in order for the government to meet its first advance GDP estimate of 6.9% for FY12 ,growth in 4Q is likely to be 6.9%. The deceleration seen in growth supports our view of cumulative easing of 100bps, although oil remains a wildcard.
· GDP by Activity: Industry is the Key Drag — Weak growth was due to a slowdown in industry, to 2.6%YoY – led by a deceleration in manufacturing (+0.4%) and a contraction in mining (-3.1%). However, this has already been largely priced in (the Index of Industrial Production averaged 1% during 3Q). Service sector growth held up at 8.9%YoY, supported by healthy trends in trade and communication (+9.2%) and financing and insurance (+9%). Agri growth remained lackluster at 2.7%YoY (see p. 2)
· GDP by Expenditure: Investments in the Red, Again — On the expenditure front, Gross fixed capital formation posted a contraction (-1.2%YoY) for the second consecutive quarter, a result of policy-related bottlenecks and coal/gas shortages. A point to note is that past data has been revised down significantly (e.g. growth during 1HFY12 was revised from ~3.5%YoY to 0.5%). However, consumption growth edged higher to 5.9%YoY, with trends supported by private consumption (+6.2%) while public consumption slowed marginally (+4.4%). Net exports widened to -7.8% of GDP as export growth moderated, even as imports posted double-digit growth.
· Policy Thrust is Key to Outlook — As highlighted earlier, the deceleration in growth in FY12 has been due to a collapse in investments. While we are maintaining our 7% GDP estimate for FY13 (see p. 4) , recent steps taken by the Committee of Secretaries, headed by Principal Secretary to the PM Singh - Pulok Chatterjee - are positive and could result in the investment cycle recovering in the latter half of the year. Key proposals include: (a) Fast track clearances for power and coal projects; (b) expansion in coal production of existing mines without fresh clearance; (c) Coal India instructed to sign Fuel Supply Agreements with power plants that have implemented PPAs.
· Policy Implications — Soft GDP data supports our view of the RBI easing the repo rate by 100bps in 2012, but the recent rally in commodities could influence rate decisions. Given that RBI has said that the quantum/timing of rate cuts would be dependent on fiscal consolidation, we expect the repo rate to be cut post the budget (on 16 March), during the RBI’s 17 April policy. However, given tight liquidity conditions we expect the RBI to cut the CRR by 50bps in the March 15th policy
“We didn't actually overspend our budget. The allocation simply fell short of our expenditure.”
Indian government is scheduled to present the Union budget on 16th March 2012. With fiscal slippage expected to be ~1.2% of GDP (Fiscal deficit at 5.8% as against budgeted estimate of 4.6% in FY12) and GDP growth expected to be below 7% in FY12, the finance minister has to do a balancing act between fiscal consolidation and reviving economic growth. Our sense is that the finance minister has very little room for an expansionary budget and focus would be clearly on measures to reduce the non-plan expenditure (read subsidies). Further, with the RBI clearly signaling the need for concrete steps towards fiscal consolidation before embarking on the path of monetary easing, plausible measures from the central government in this regard would be keenly watched out for. While the finance minister has various options in his arsenal to achieve the desired end, measures taken to kick-start private investment growth and moderate non-plan expenditure would be critical in our view.
Given the current state of affairs, we highlight some of the options available to the finance minister to rein in fiscal deficit without any material impact on economic growth.
· Concrete measures to reduce fuel and fertilizer subsidy burden in FY13, we believe, would be the main focus area in this year’s budget. While a full-fledged deregulation of tariffs could be still a while away, the finance minister could hike retail prices of fuel and fertilizers to reduce the under-recovery burden. Also, steps towards focused distribution of subsidies through direct cash transfers using UID would be a positive.
· Clear thrust on reviving private investment spends with measures towards faster clearance of projects and resolving issues pertaining to fuel availability would be critical. Further, measures could be taken to improve availability of long term financing to infrastructure sector through focus on programs such as Infra Debt Fund, IIFCL’s Credit Enhancement Scheme, Takeout financing.
· While non-tax revenue was muted in FY12 due to absence of any one-off income, the government could re-auction the spectrum obtained from cancellation of 2G licenses to mop-up ~Rs230bn in FY13.
· Also, while weak capital markets impacted disinvestment mop-up in FY12 (at ~Rs100bn as against budgeted estimate of Rs400bn!), improving equity market sentiments and utilization of auction route for disinvestment could prop up revenues in FY13.
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Metallica |
Prices broadly stable; volatility likely ahead |
CMP |
TP | Reco
| |
HZL | 142 |
159 | Buy |
Tata steel | 460 |
422 | Hold |
Sterlite Ind. | 121 |
123 | Hold |
Hindalco | 147 |
154 | Acc |
Sesa Goa | 208 |
205 | Hold |
JSW Steel | 794 |
590 | Red |
Bhushan | 391 |
315 | Hold |
HEG | 241 |
230 | Acc |
GPIL | 106 |
133 | Buy |
Goutam Chakraborty |
Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com| | Email : goutam.ch...@emkayglobal.com |
Board No. +91-22-66121212 | Extn. 275 | DID : 66121275 | Mob No. : +919867361765 | |
Jagdish Agarwal |
Senior Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : jagdish...@emkayglobal.com |
Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 381 | DID : 66121381 | Mob : +919820869499 | |
CONTACT:
Kunal Sheth
Research Analyst-Institutional Equities
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2012
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