Budget - Part II

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Deepak Vaishnav

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Mar 8, 2012, 4:11:45 AM3/8/12
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
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From: Sohani, Dipesh (IND Int) <dso...@mfglobal.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 2:53 PM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) MF Global India Budget Preview - Focus on Fiscal Consolidation: Union Budget 2012-2013-A Preview (Mar 2012)
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Dipesh Sohani

Research Analyst – Real estate, Mid-caps

Institutional Equity Research

MF Global Sify Securities India Pvt. Ltd.
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM
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From: Umang R Shah <umang...@motilaloswal.com>
Date: Thu, Feb 23, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) Budget Preview report from GS
To: "stock...@googlegroups.com" <stock...@googlegroups.com>


 



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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM
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From: Bhavesh Kanani <bhavesh...@centrum.co.in>
Date: Mon, Feb 27, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) DB - India Strategy- Budget expectations - Bold economic budget after a long gap
To: Bhavesh Kanani <bhavesh...@centrum.co.in>



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DB - India Strategy- Budget expectations - Bold economic budget after a long
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:07 PM
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MS Strategy - Broad Budget Expectations

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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:07 PM
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From: <aks...@ankitam.com>
Date: Thu, Mar 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) Fw: Citi Wealth Advisors : India Economics
To: Jagdish stocktalks Jagdish stocktalks <stock...@googlegroups.com>


Sent on my BlackBerry® from Vodafone

Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2012 05:17:09 +0000
To: Akshay<aks...@ankitam.com>
Subject: Fw: Citi Wealth Advisors : India Economics

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From: *CWA IN Research <research...@citi.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2012 09:20:39 +0530
Subject: Citi Wealth Advisors : India Economics

 

India Economics : Moderation in 3QFY12 GDP to 6.1% Priced In - Implementation of PMO’s Recent Measures Key for FY13 Upgrades

 

·         3QFY12 GDP slows to 6.1% — Following the 7.7% and 6.9% growth in 1Q and 2QFY12 respectively, GDP growth slowed further to 6.1%YoY during 3QFY12 ( Citi & Consensus: 6.3%). Cumulative 9MFY12 growth was 6.9%YoY, vs. 8.1% last year. This implies that, in order for the government to meet its first advance GDP estimate of 6.9% for FY12 ,growth in 4Q is likely to be  6.9%. The deceleration seen in growth supports our view of cumulative easing of 100bps, although oil remains a wildcard. 

 

·         GDP by Activity: Industry is the Key Drag — Weak growth was due to a slowdown in industry, to 2.6%YoY – led by a deceleration in manufacturing (+0.4%) and a contraction in mining (-3.1%).  However, this has already been largely priced in (the Index of Industrial Production averaged 1% during 3Q). Service sector growth held up at 8.9%YoY, supported by healthy trends in trade and communication (+9.2%) and financing and insurance (+9%). Agri growth remained lackluster at 2.7%YoY (see p. 2)

 

·         GDP by Expenditure: Investments in the Red, Again — On the expenditure front, Gross fixed capital formation posted a contraction (-1.2%YoY) for the second consecutive quarter, a result of policy-related bottlenecks and coal/gas shortages. A point to note is that past data has been revised down significantly (e.g. growth during 1HFY12 was revised from ~3.5%YoY to 0.5%). However, consumption growth edged higher to 5.9%YoY, with trends supported by private consumption (+6.2%) while public consumption slowed marginally (+4.4%). Net exports widened to -7.8% of GDP as export growth moderated, even as imports posted double-digit growth.

 

·         Policy Thrust is Key to Outlook — As highlighted earlier, the deceleration in growth in FY12 has been due to a collapse in investments. While we are maintaining our 7% GDP estimate for FY13 (see p. 4) , recent steps taken by the Committee of Secretaries, headed by Principal Secretary to the PM Singh - Pulok Chatterjee - are positive and could result in the investment cycle recovering in the latter half of the year. Key proposals include: (a) Fast track clearances for power and coal projects; (b) expansion in coal production of existing mines without fresh clearance; (c) Coal India instructed to sign Fuel Supply Agreements with power plants that have implemented PPAs.

 

·         Policy Implications — Soft GDP data supports our view of the RBI easing the repo rate by 100bps in 2012, but the recent rally in commodities could influence rate decisions. Given that RBI has said that the quantum/timing of rate cuts would be dependent on fiscal consolidation, we expect the repo rate to be cut post the budget (on 16 March), during the RBI’s 17 April policy. However, given tight liquidity conditions we expect the RBI to cut the CRR by 50bps in the March 15th policy

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM
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From: <devash...@hsbc.co.in>
Date: Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 10:23 AM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) SCB: Budget Preview
To: stock...@googlegroups.com





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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM
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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:10 PM
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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Baburao Gajanan Shirsat <b.sh...@bsmail.in>
Date: Tue, Mar 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM
Subject: StockTalkS :-) Reports
To: stock...@googlegroups.com






 
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
 
Hi,
 
Please find attached report on
 
    • Union Budget FY13 Expectations
       
Please feel free to use this report in any of your stories with credits to IDFC Securities
 
If you see a story idea in this, please feel free to get in touch with me & I will gladly assist you.
 
Kind regards,
Alpesh Nakrani / Anirudh Rajan
9869121167 / 9892343828
Paradigm Shift Public Relations
Mumbai
 
Email:     pr.parad...@gmail.com
                 parad...@gmail.com,

 

 

 

 “We didn't actually overspend our budget. The allocation simply fell short of our expenditure.”

Indian government is scheduled to present the Union budget on 16th March 2012. With fiscal slippage expected to be ~1.2% of GDP (Fiscal deficit at 5.8% as against budgeted estimate of 4.6% in FY12) and GDP growth expected to be below 7% in FY12, the finance minister has to do a balancing act between fiscal consolidation and reviving economic growth. Our sense is that the finance minister has very little room for an expansionary budget and focus would be clearly on measures to reduce the non-plan expenditure (read subsidies). Further, with the RBI clearly signaling the need for concrete steps towards fiscal consolidation before embarking on the path of monetary easing, plausible measures from the central government in this regard would be keenly watched out for. While the finance minister has various options in his arsenal to achieve the desired end, measures taken to kick-start private investment growth and moderate non-plan expenditure would be critical in our view.

Given the current state of affairs, we highlight some of the options available to the finance minister to rein in fiscal deficit without any material impact on economic growth.


    ·         The finance minister could revive tax collections by increasing union excise duties and service tax rates to pre-crisis levels. Further, introduction of a ‘negative list’ of services instead of the currently followed ‘positive list’ would bring more services under the service tax net, thereby boosting service tax collections.

    ·         Concrete measures to reduce fuel and fertilizer subsidy burden in FY13, we believe, would be the main focus area in this year’s budget. While a full-fledged deregulation of tariffs could be still a while away, the finance minister could hike retail prices of fuel and fertilizers to reduce the under-recovery burden. Also, steps towards focused distribution of subsidies through direct cash transfers using UID would be a positive.

    ·         Clear thrust on reviving private investment spends with measures towards faster clearance of projects and resolving issues pertaining to fuel availability would be critical. Further, measures could be taken to improve availability of long term financing to infrastructure sector through focus on programs such as Infra Debt Fund, IIFCL’s Credit Enhancement Scheme, Takeout financing.

    ·         While non-tax revenue was muted in FY12 due to absence of any one-off income, the government could re-auction the spectrum obtained from cancellation of 2G licenses to mop-up ~Rs230bn in FY13.

    ·         Also, while weak capital markets impacted disinvestment mop-up in FY12 (at ~Rs100bn as against budgeted estimate of Rs400bn!), improving equity market sentiments and utilization of auction route for disinvestment could prop up revenues in FY13.


 

 

 

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Cell: 9869121167 /9892343828
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(See attached file: Budget Preview - Mar12.pdf)

Metallica
Prices broadly stable; volatility likely ahead
While non ferrous metals prices improved (2-8%), steel prices remained broadly stable during last fortnight (ending 2nd March’12). This we believe was due to seasonality and supportive global macro economic factors during this period. We expect development in Europe and Middle-East along with movement in USD to keep prices volatile going ahead.
    n Ferrous: Steel prices maintaining stability
    n Non-ferrous: Aluminium has been biggest gainer
    n Macroeconomics: Overall supportive, however concerns remain

CMP
TP
Reco
HZL
142
159
Buy
Tata steel
460
422
Hold
Sterlite Ind.
121
123
Hold
Hindalco
147
154
Acc
Sesa Goa
208
205
Hold
JSW Steel
794
590
Red
Bhushan
391
315
Hold
HEG
241
230
Acc
GPIL
106
133
Buy


Regards,

Goutam Chakraborty
Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com| | Email : goutam.ch...@emkayglobal.com
Board No. +91-22-66121212 | Extn. 275 | DID : 66121275 | Mob No. : +919867361765 |

Jagdish Agarwal
Senior Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : jagdish...@emkayglobal.com
Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 381 | DID : 66121381 | Mob : +919820869499 |
(See attached file: Metallica Fortnightly Metals and Mining Sector Update_060312.pdf)


PL INDIA

Thermax                   Accumulate            
Management Meet Update - Looking beyond the near-term weakness
We hosted the management of Thermax. Following are the key takeaways of the meeting:
Base business orders to grow, large orders taking time: Thermax reiterated its ability to win base business orders of at least Rs5-6bn per quarter and hence, does not expect the order flow to be below the Q3FY12 levels (Rs5.9bn). The peak base business order flow was Rs10.5bn in FY08. The current capacities can take base business orders up to Rs14bn per quarter. However, with very few enquiries for large and captive power plants, the order flow is likely to be muted for the next two quarters due to the given current issues like coal availability and higher cost of funds. The company expects the recovery to happen by H2FY13. Sectors like Cement, Steel and Oil & Gas (refineries) are likely to lead the recovery apart from sectors like Food processing, Hotels and Hospitals which are already investing. Power sector is likely to take time to recover.
Margins can be maintained if recovery happens in the next two quarters: Given the reduced order carry, sales are likely to de-grow by 8-10% next year. However, efforts are being made to curtail the fall. Though business like Chemical, Water, Absorption chiller, Services O&M, Standard boilers etc. are likely to show growth, large  business segments like EPC and Boiler & Heating are likely to de-grow, leading to over all de-growth. Thermax will try and maintain margins at ~11% range despite lower turnover by various levers it has in the employee cost (Rs500m in variable pay and Rs350m in variable man power). However, if the recovery does not happen by H2FY13, then it will have to start taking orders even with lower margin to cover fixed cost.
Super critical JV update: The JV for super critical boilers with Babcock & Wilcox is on track and is likely to be commissioned by September 2012. However, with no enquiries in the pipeline, it is unlikely that the JV will have an order at the time of commissioning. The burn out for JV assuming no revenues in FY13 or FY14 (due to lack of orders) could be ~Rs1bn (Thermax share 51%). Some of the losses could possibly be offset if the JV were to get some international orders from its partner Babcock and Wilcox. The management did not sound too worried as the company’s share of losses in the JV is not large compared to the net worth. Management believed that apart from issues like coal and land, the biggest hurdle for Power market will be for promoters garner equity. It also believes that though current preference is for Super critical plants, but given the constraint of coal and equity, smaller size plants of 150MW and 300MW might be back in favour. On issues of lack of coal linkage to captive plants, company commented that the economics will work for captive plants even if they have to import coal and run the plant as price of electricity is likely to go up further with capacity addition lagging target.
Valuation and Outlook: The stock is trading at 17.8x FY13E earnings. We believe that though the next few quarters will be weak in terms of earnings and order flow, Thermax’s ability to bag base orders of ~Rs5-6bn per quarter gives us a confidence that it will be able to tide the slowdown and participate in the upturn of the cycle meaningfully and surprise positively in terms of order flow. Expectation of rate cut aiding recovery of capex cycle will also help support multiples. We maintain our ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock

 

CONTACT:

Kunal Sheth

Research Analyst-Institutional Equities

Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

Board Line No. +91 22 66322222

Direct No. +91 22 66322257


======================================

Tuesday, March 06, 2012       

 

Please find attached the above reports courtesy Prabhudas Lilladher Private Ltd.

Please feel free to use this report in any of your stories with credits to Prabhudas Lilladher Private Ltd.

 

If you see a story idea in this, please feel free to get in touch with me & I will gladly assist you.

 

Kind regards,  

 

Varsha Talreja / Alpesh Nakrani  

Paradigm Shift PR

Mumbai

 

Tel: +91 – 22 - 22813797 / 8 / 22875122

Hand phone: +91 – 9821195211 / 9869121167

 

Email:     prara...@gmail.com

               mohan....@gmail.com

              

Website: www.paradigmshiftpr.in

Disclaimer:
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. 
(See attached file: TMX-5-3-12-PL.pdf)





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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:11 PM
To:




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From: Invest Mentor <bk.inve...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 4:11 PM
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0F386811.gif
India Economics20120229.pdf
India_–_Time_for_a_bold_budget.pdf
Union Budget Preview 2012-13.pdf
CS_Budget expectations_Feb 27.pdf
India Budget Preview - GS.pdf
DB - India Strategy- Budget expectations - Bold economic budget after a long gap.pdf
MS Strategy - Broad Budget Expectations.pdf
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