Moonsoon Watch...Thread.
RAJESH DESAI
Investors will continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains. Weather officials expect an improvement in the rainfall next week. Monsoon rains were above average in June 2011, but dropped to 3% below average after slowing in the first week of July. Rainfall between July 7 and July 13 was 19% below average, while it was 25% below average between June 30 and July 6. As per reports, the rainfall distribution so far has been good except for areas in the country's extreme northwest and southeast, mainly in Gujarat's Saurashtra region and the Andhra Pradesh coast. While Gujarat is India's largest groundnut and cotton producer, Andhra Pradesh is a key rice-producing region.
The central state of Chhattisgarh and the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra are also rainfall-deficient, but the gap is expected to be bridged over the next few days. The grainbowl northern states of Punjab and Haryana, as well as parts of Uttar Pradesh, have all received above normal to normal rains, while eastern rice-growing states, including key producer West Bengal, have received good rains. Oilseed-growing regions in central India have also been lashed by abundant rains.
Rainfall in the month of July is considered crucial as sowing of a number of crops starts in June and good July rains determine the soil moisture and ensure proper development of the crops planted in June.
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EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
Neutral ENSO conditions likely to persist
Neutral ENSO conditions are firmly established across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with most atmospheric and oceanic indicators at near normal levels. The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue through the southern spring, with forecast temperatures being lower than were being forecast a few months ago.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall is
currently neutral. Our climate model, POAMA, has forecast a positive
IOD event to develop during winter, although there’s no evidence of an
event at this stage. In the past, positive IOD events have been
associated with drier conditions.
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
The country's crucial monsoon rains were 7% above normal in the week to July 20, picking up from about a fifth below average in the previous week, the weather office said on Thursday.
The rains had been expected to improve after a lull phase in the first half of July, the key month for planting, but are still forecast to be only slightly below normal for the entire June to September season.
Rains were above average over soybean and cane growing areas of central and western India in the past week. Tea, coffee and rubber growing areas of south India also received above average rains.
But rice areas in eastern and south India received less rains over the past week.
Last year, rainfall was 17% below normal in the week to July 21 after a weak start in June, but rains picked up in the remaining period of the four-month monsoon and ended as normal.
The four-month monsoon rains are crucial to crop production in 60 percent of the country that does not have adequate irrigation.
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
July monsoon below-normal after good rainfall in June: IMD
Published on Fri, Jul 29, 2011 at 10:53 | Source : CNBC-TV18
A lot depends on the monsoons. Being an agrarian economy, timely and equitable distribution of rainfall is imperative for growth. Even as we riddle in high inflation and increasing food inflation, in particular, monsoons were predicted below normal this year. Ajit Tyagi, director general of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) joins CNBC-TV18 to give further insight.
Below is the verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying video
Q: Could you start off by updating us on what kind of deficit we have seen in July for the rainfall overall?
A: July, as we expected is going to be below normal. We have given a forecast of 93%, slightly lower than that, but within the margin range of our normal forecast. However, this was expected after good rainfall in month of June, which was 10% above normal. Till 25th we were near normal and the last 5 days, because of weak monsoon, we have now come down to minus 4-5%. Over the next two days, we expect monsoon to be weak. We will review from the first week of August. So this is intra-seasonal variability, where after a good spell of a week or two of good monsoon, there is a weakening taking place. There is nothing unusual about it this year also.
Also read: Next week's rainfall can be slightly below normal
Q: Where is the weakness set in the last 5 days, where is the primary deficit for July?
A: Good part of this year’s monsoon, we are expecting it to be below normal. However, the distribution is fairly good, particularly for the central parts of country. The north-east states like Assam, Meghalaya and Orissa are having little deficit rainfall. In the west, Gujarat is having deficit rainfall and in the north, the state of Haryana got deficit. But it will be made up in the next couple of days.
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EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
Neutral conditions remain in the tropical Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 3 August |
Neutral ENSO conditions persist in the tropical Pacific, with most atmospheric and oceanic indicators at near normal levels. Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled over the last month, but remain within neutral thresholds. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as trade winds and cloudiness near the date-line have fluctuated around normal.
The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the remainder of the southern winter and into spring with the chances of an El Niño developing now considered unlikely. In fact, more models are now predicting further cooling over the coming season.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall is currently neutral. Our climate model, POAMA, suggests there remains a chance of a positive IOD event forming during late winter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of India.
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
Monsoon rains are likely to pick up over most parts of the country in the next four to five days, after sharply slowing for two consecutive weeks during the most important sowing period for summer crops. A news agency on Thursday, 4 August 2011, quoted an unnamed senior official with the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) as saying that the country's important rice-and oilseed-growing regions, the eastern and central parts, are likely to receive more rains in the near future after getting intermittent showers in the past few days.
Rains were 22% below normal in the week to 3 August 2011, recording marginal improvement from 23% below average showers in the previous week. Total rainfall since the beginning of the June-September monsoon season has been 6% below average. Rainfall has been normal or above in 73% of the country so far this season, while 27% of the country is facing a deficit. In some parts of eastern India such as Orissa, Bihar and Jharkhand, rainfall is below normal, but in the key rice-growing state of West Bengal rainfall is above normal. A rainfall deficit in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, a top rice-producer, has largely been bridged.
In the northern grain bowl region of Punjab, the monsoon rain deficit is 26%. However, since most farmland in Punjab is irrigated, rice production may not be adversely affected in the state. But, low rainfall in the western regions is likely to adversely affect the output of groundnut, the second biggest summer-sown oilseed crop after soybean. In Gujarat, rainfall is 37% below average.
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
India's monsoon rains revived in rice, oilseeds, lentils and cereals growing areas over the past week, weather office sources said on Thursday, snapping a two-week long lull and improving output prospects for the summer sown crops.
Last year, rainfall was 26% below normal in the week to August 11 after a weak start, but it picked up during the four-month season and ended normal.
It is expected that this year's rains to have been above normal over the past the week, a sharp rise from the previous two weeks when the rains were 22-23% below average. The official data is to be released later on Thursday.
India's June to September monsoon rains are crucial to crop output in 60% of the country that does not have adequate irrigation.
EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
End-season rainfall expected at 97% of normal: MET
While the economic scenario looms as a dark cloud over growth prospects of the nation, the skies have literally opened up to ensure good monsoon showers that could be a silver lining. Not only has it poured to near-normal levels, the rainfall distribution too has been equitable, says BP Yadav, director of the MET department.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 in an exclusive interview, he says that the end of season should record a total rainfall of 96-97% of the normal range. “The distribution seen during the period is definitely a positive sign for the economy,” he says.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is the current figure in terms of the monsoon, total quantum and distribution, and how does it compare with your last forecast?
A: Currently, the monsoon is very good. As of now, we have received about 66cm of rainfall out of the 89cm predicted for the entire season. This 66cm is in-line with the amount we should be expecting by this time. In percent terms, as of now, the rainfall deficiency over the country is only about 1%. We can say that the monsoon is up to normal range and the distribution too is very good. About 80-85% area of the country is under normal or excess rainfall category, which is a good sign.
In fact, it is only two important regions where rainfall is reducing, Haryana and Orissa. All other states are under good rainfall, of course barring the north-east, but their actual quantum is so very high that it definitely does not matter much, particularly for agriculture.
Overall, monsoon up to now has been very good. Our first forecast was of 98%, that is 2% deficiency instead of 1%. We revised our forecast to about 95%, and now it indeed is 95%. Our model has 4% error, so that means, the rainfall up to now is within our forecast range, and the distribution in all the four regions will be equitable.
Q: What are your estimates for September?
A: August rainfall has been on the higher side than our expectations. However, in September, we are looking for rainfall slightly below normal. Our figures are about 10% less rainfall than normal for the month, but that is not a big number since in quantum of actual contribution, it comes to only 2-3cm rainfall.
Q: So overall, at the end of the monsoon season, what is your estimation of rainfall? Will it be below average, normal or above average?
A: Most likely, it will be normal and within our forecast range figure. We don’t know exactly what, but it will be somewhere about 96-97% of the normal. That is 2-3% deficiency maximum, for the entire season for the entire country. This number 96-97% of normal rainfall comes in the normal category by all means.
Q: You spoke about a couple of deficient states. Are the deficiencies in areas which are agricultural?
A: No, barring Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Manipur. Those areas
are where the quantum of rainfall is very high, so deficiency will not
affect agriculture. The other two states are Haryana and Orissa where
deficiency is observed. The deficiency in Orissa is very marginal, and
Haryana deficiency is about 30%. However, Haryana has a lot of
underground irrigation facilities, tube well irrigation and other
watering facilities. According to the report from the ministry of
agriculture, crops are in good condition with the amount of rainfall
alongside supplementary irrigation.
So there are no areas where the
deficiency is acute, and also, there are no such areas where you can say
the amount is so high that the crops are adversely affected. We have
got rainfalls in many parts of the country this year more or less within
the tolerable limits.
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EQUITY BULL
RAJESH DESAI
India sees 2012 monsoon normal, no El Nino threat
ndia's monsoon is likely to have average rainfall in 2012 despite fears the El Nino weather pattern may emerge in the second half of the season, the country's top weather official said, pointing to a third straight year without drought.The June-September monsoon, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigates around 60% of farms in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Agriculture accounts for about 15% of India's nearly USD 2 trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
"Rains could be normal this year due to the absence of any strong signal that could inhibit occurrence of a healthy monsoon," L.S. Rathore, director-general of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Reuters in an interview.
The IMD forecast is the basis for the government's official forecast which will be released in the last week of April with more details.
According to the IMD classification, rains between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres is considered normal. The last time there was a drought with rains below this range was 2009 and before that, in 2004.
"The apprehension that the El Nino will impact the monsoon badly seems misplaced as this weather pattern is likely to emerge only towards end-August which is one of the two wettest months. Besides, El Nino is just one of the many factors that come into play," Rathore said.
El Nino, an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, is linked with poor rains or a drought-like situation in southeast Asia and Australia.
The La Nina weather pattern, which is associated with heavy rains in south Asia and flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and South America, and drought in Africa, ended in March.
In the interim before El Nino appears, Rathore said a neutral condition continues over the tropical Pacific.
"On a number of occasions, monsoon turned out to be normal despite the emergence of El Nino. There is no direct, one-on- one relationship between the success of the monsoon and the occurrence of El Nino," he said.
Last month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said climate models indicated that the La Nina weather pattern had come to an end.
In 2009, the El Nino weather pattern turned monsoon rains patchy, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades. Rains were within long-term averages in following years, helped by La Nina.
According to the weather office, the El Nino weather pattern was present in 13 of the 20 drought years in the past 111 years.
"Although I cannot talk about this year's monsoon forecast now, as it due between April 25 and April 28, what I can say is there is no cause for concern at all," Rathore said.
A monsoon with average rains would boost grains output, helping Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's coalition government keep inflation under check and boosting the faltering economy.
India's economy grew by 6.1% in the December quarter, its slowest in almost three years. To accelerate that, the central bank on Tuesday cut interest rates for the first time since 2009.
In 2011, the monsoon rains were 101% of the long-term average, surpassing the weather office's forecast of 98% but still within average levels.
The southwest monsoon rains enter India through the southern Kerala coast around June 1 and cover the entire country by mid-July.
Following the demise of the 2011–12 La Niña, the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter. Historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Niño conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Niña event.
The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 °C during the past fortnight.
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CA. Rajesh Desai
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CA. Rajesh Desai
RAJESH DESAI
Normal monsoon seen with 99% rainfall in India: IMD
Putting all concerns to rest as of now, the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) has projected normal rains in the June to September period. IMD sees rainfall at 99% of the long period average.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, LS Rathore, Director General, IMD assured that there is a significant probability of a normal monsoon this season. However, risk of El Nino weather pattern still persists in the second half of monsoon.
Also Read: Aug-Sept monsoon season might be impacted by El Nino: IMD
Rathore added that there could be a slight El Nino effect in August-September period.
The June-September monsoon, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigates around 60% of farms in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Agriculture accounts for about 15% of India's nearly USD 2 trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
According to the IMD classification, rains between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres is considered normal. The last time there was a drought with rains below this range was 2009 and before that, in 2004.
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CA. Rajesh Desai
RAJESH DESAI
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CA. Rajesh Desai
RAJESH DESAI
- Monthly sea surface temperatures:
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Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during June. Water in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is more than 1 °C warmer than usual. The SST anomaly map for June shows SSTs remain near average across the western half of the tropical Pacific, and the area of weak cool anomalies north of the equator also remains similar to the previous month. Warm anomalies in the far western Pacific north of the Maritime Continent have also decreased.
Blackout: Weak monsoon to hit power, kill crops
NEW DELHI: The faltering monsoon has pushed the country to the brink of severe shortages of power and drinking water, apart from hurting crop planting as India's biggest water reservoirs need to be quickly replenished to generate electricity and irrigate fields for the rest of the year.
The situation can still be retrieved if the monsoon revives quickly, as forecast by the weather office, but the rainfall deficit has widened in the past week and total rains in the season are 31% below average, which has reduced rice planting by 26% compared with last year. This has also dried up many reservoirs, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where the water table has dipped sharply.
Hydroelectricity supply usually peaks in the monsoon months of July and August, allowing coal-fired power stations to plan maintenance shutdowns during this period. But this year, the power situation has deteriorated as demand has soared beyond what utilities had anticipated while many plants are idling or underutilised due to scarcity of coal and gas.
"It is a tricky situation. We have to balance power generation with the need to maintain water level at the reservoir," an official at the Tehri hydropower plant told ET. The reservoir currently holds 2% of its capacity, according to data from the Central Water Commission. The Bhakra dam is filled to barely 16% of capacity, down from 37% at the same time last year. The reservoir irrigates the main grain-producing regions in north India, particularly in winter, when irrigation is the sole source of water.
India's 84 main reservoirs are filled to 16% of capacity against 27% a year ago. Four reservoirs in Maharashtra and five in Karnataka are almost dry.
"Hydroelectricity generation peaks during the monsoon months. If the monsoon is further delayed, there will be a bigger power shortage and the demand will be high because the use of air conditioners will not come down unless it rains," an official at a private power company said.
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CA Mihir Desai
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CA. Rajesh Desai
Rajesh Desai
Reuters) - India may be heading for another bumper grain harvest, if the first forecast for this year's monsoon proves correct, but the rain may be too little - and too late - for southern and western states already parched by the worst drought in four decades.
Although last year's monsoon rains were, overall, just seven percent below normal, these states - including major sugar producer Maharashtra and cotton-growing Gujarat - went short, in some cases getting less than half the precipitation they needed.
A further drought this year could trigger mass migration to cities like Mumbai as families seek jobs and precious water. It would also hit crops, shrinking farm incomes and so reducing economic growth in the area, as well as fuelling food inflation.
India's struggling economy, Asia's third biggest, is at last showing some green shoots of recovery, but anything short of a drought-busting monsoon could put that at risk. A drought can wipe as much as 2 percentage points off economic growth, as farm output withers and consumption stalls.
"If the monsoon season is good, then farmers will earn money and start spending from October onwards. Till then we have to cope with the slowdown," said Kamalkant Deshmukh, a manager at Raghuvir Motors, which sells Hero motorcyles in Aurangabad in Maharashtra.
His sales halved in the first three months of 2013 from a year ago, while overall motorcycle sales dropped an annual 8.3 percent in March.
A widespread drought could push the overall economic growth rate in the current fiscal year ended March, 2014, down to as low as 5.1 percent from a current projection of 6 percent, said D.K. Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL Ltd.
Last Friday, global experts predicted that India would receive normal monsoon rains this year, and the country's weather office is likely to confirm that with its own first official forecast on April 26.
But the massive subcontinent, which stretches from the tropics in the south to the Himalayas in the north, has more variations in soil type and climate than perhaps any other region in the world. Even during a normal monsoon season, many regions receive scanty rainfall while other battle with floods.
GRAPHICS:
India's monsoon and GDP: link.reuters.com/xac86t
Rainfall/droughts from 1910: link.reuters.com/cyt57t
Map of monsoon in 2012: link.reuters.com/dyt57t
WELLS DRY UP
The June-September rains are crucial for the 55-60 percent of the farmland that lacks irrigation. Drought damages crops and yields, sometimes forcing the country to import food for its 1.2 billion population, spurring global prices higher.
Last year's rains were successful enough to mean sugar, rice and wheat output are all surplus to demand and, in some cases, breaking records. Government grain stocks are already overflowing and New Delhi is pushing exports to avoid wasting the rice and wheat to rot and rodents.
But the devil is in the detail.
Farmer Sanjay Wadekar from the village of Jamwadi in Maharashtra watched helplessly in recent weeks as wells on his land dried up and his 17-year-old sweet lime orchard died.
Now, he is planting cotton in the hope that the hardier, less thirsty crop will survive and bring some income.
"Due to the drought, I have lost my savings of the last few years. If the drought repeats again this year, I have no choice but to default on crop and tractor loans. I may have to sell some family gold for regular expenses," said Wadekar.
SUGAR CANE USED TO FEED COWS
Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west and the southern states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh are all in desperate need of ample rains this year, spanning an area roughly equivalent to Southern Europe.
According to some estimates, sugar output may drop below demand for the first time in four years in 2013/14 because the drought in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka has reduced planting.
Sugar output has already been cut by 17 percent in Maharashtra, India's main producing state, and its grains production is down a similar amount.
Cotton output has also been hit, down over 29 percent in Gujarat, while Maharashtra's onion production - key for the spicy dishes - is likely to drop more than 19 percent.
In addition, states have bought sugar cane for fodder to ensure the survival of dairy cows, which become the main source of income for farmers when drought hits their crops.
The drought is so bad in Maharashtra that drinking supplies are running short. Nearly 12,000 villages have been affected and tanker trucks are out supplying water. People in Jamwadi have to trudge nearly 2 km to find wells which still hold water.
"Many of our relatives are moving to Mumbai, where they are getting work and tap water," said 25-year-old Salma Beniwale, on her third round trip to the well on a recent day. "We are also thinking to go there as I don't think we will get water in May."
And it's not just drinking water that is precious.
"People have no choice but to defecate in the open," said Bajirao More, a farm labourer currently without work in Jamwadi. "Here we are struggling to secure drinking water. Using toilets means we have to make one more round to bring water."
(Editing by Jo Winterbottom and Ed Davies)
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CA. Rajesh Desai
Rajesh Desai
According to private weather forecasting company, SkymetWeather Services Ltd, the southwest monsoon which is currently hovering around the Andaman and Nicobar island is expected to reach the Kerala coast in a couple of days around May 28 and thereafter make a steady progress across the country with minor delays of 2-3 days.
The Monsoon usually reaches Kerala around June 1.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that in 2013, southwest monsoon will arrive in Kerala around June 3 with a model error of 3-4 days.
The met office had also predicted that rains in 2013 would be normal at around 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Long Period Average is the average rainfall of the last 50 years, estimated to be around 89 centimeters.
Skymet said rains are expected to arrive in Mumbai around June 8, two days ahead of its scheduled arrival date.
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CA. Rajesh Desai