Emkay Icra tvs motors trf jubilant
Deepak Vaishnav
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ICRA |
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Strong rating business drives performance |
REDUCE
CMP: Rs990 Target Price: Rs900
n ICRA’s Q2FY11 results surprise positively with revenue at Rs519mn (vs our estimate Rs 277mn) and adj net profit at Rs140mn (vs our estimate Rs 105mn)
n The rating revenues grow by whopping 48%qoq growth (despite low loan growth/low bond floatations during the quarter). Other businesses also show good traction
n Margins bounced back to a near normalized level of 37.3% during the quarter, albelt still lower than 41.2% of Q2FY11. Rating margins improved to 47.9% from 26.3% in Q1FY12
n Sustainability of the growth in rating revenue look difficult given rising competition, sluggish debt issuances and lower bank loan growth. Maintain REDUCE with PT of Rs900
Regards,
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Kashyap Jhaveri |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : kashyap...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-6612 1212 | Extn. : 249 | DID : +91-22-6612 1249 | Mob : +91-98202 41712 | Fax : +91-22-6624 2410 | |
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TVS Motor Ltd. |
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In line, Maintain HOLD |
HOLD
CMP: Rs66 Target Price: Rs72
n Results in line with Sales/EBITDA/PAT at Rs 19.9bn/1.4bn/ 765mn vs est. of Rs 19.7bn/1.4bn/752mn. Company invested Rs 769mn in various subsidiaries during the quarter
n Oct 2011 vols declined by ~6.3% YoY to ~183,000 units due to one week maintenance shut down. Strong demand led to delay in planned shutdown (generally in May) to October
n Retain FY12E/FY13E vols. at 2.3mn/2.6mn units. Upgrade our F12E/FY13E by 12%/16% to Rs 5.8/7.2 due to favorable forex, price hike of 1%/3.5% in dom./exports and lower RM cost
n Retain HOLD rating but revise our TP upwards to Rs 72 (10x FY13x PER). Upside risk arises from better than expected margins in 2HFY12
Regards,
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Chirag Shah |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : chira...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-66121212 | Extn. : 252 | DID : 66121252 | Mob : +919820580701 | |
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TRF |
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Improved performance; But no catalysts… Retain Hold |
HOLD
CMP: Rs353 Target Price: Rs282
n Improved operational performance – Standalone sales up 13% yoy to Rs1.2 bn with EBITDA mgn of 10.5% - negated by forex loss of Rs54 mn. Projects div. EBIT loss reduces to Rs11 mn
n Auto components surprises positively with 7.1% EBITDA margins (+380 bps qoq). Revenue growth healthy at 18% qoq to Rs1.4 bn. Net loss of Rs2 mn due to forex loss of Rs60 mn
n Dry run in order inflows continues for 6th consecutive quarter. Order book down 3% qoq to Rs12.8 bn. Retains guidance of Rs10 bn inflows for FY12E on back of Rs5 bn L1 orders
n Retain our FY12E and FY13E consolidated earnings estimates of Rs32.7 and Rs29.4 per share respectively. With no upside catalysts, retain HOLD rating with price target of Rs282
Regards,
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Pritesh Chheda |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email: pritesh...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91- 22- 6612 1212 | Extn. : 273 | DID : +91-22- 6612 1273 | Mob : +91 98208 07241 |
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Prerna Jhavar |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : prerna...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-6612 1212 | Extn. : 337 | DID : 6612 1337 | Mob : +91981935 0593 | |
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Jubilant FoodWorks |
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On Expected Lines… Accumulate |
ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs815 Target Price: Rs900
n Q2FY12 performance on expected lines - sales growth of 47% yoy to Rs 2.4 bn is driven by strong 27% same store growth. APAT growth of 33% yoy to Rs 246 mn
n Moderation in SSG to 27% in Q2FY12… but remains on expected lines… attributed to base effects with no visible signs of consumer spending being curtailed
n Incurred expenditure of Rs9 mn on Dunkin Donuts. Process of formalizing the food menu, supply chain, store location, etc - reiterates to open its first Dunkin Donuts outlet in H1CY12E
n Continue to remain positive on its robust business model with high operating cash flows – Re-iterate our ACCUMULATE rating with a target price of Rs 900/share
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Sweta Jain |
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Research Analyst | Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | www.emkayglobal.com | Email : sweta...@emkayglobal.com |
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Board No. : +91-22-6612 1212 | Extn. : 479 | DID : 6624 2479 | Mob : +9198923 17596 | |
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