Indian Market Outlook for the week (25-29.06.2012)

[rupeedesk]

Indian Market Outlook for the week (25-29.06.2012)

Key Stock indices are expected to rise further next week due to likely short covering ahead of expiry of the June futures contract. Recent short covering as well as addition of long positions in contracts of several bank stocks, which account for a collective 23.54% weightage in the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty, also back the notion of a further upside in the market. We are positive on stocks of State Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, and Andhra Bank, among others. Price targets cited for SBI, which ended down 0.9% at 2,157.80 rupees yesterday, vary between 2,200 rupees and 2,250 rupees. Recent options data indicates that 5100 should be able to hold (as a support); it is possible that for this expiry, Nifty can scale 5200. 

Despite the positive bias for next week, risks from a weak rupee persist. The Indian unit fell to a record low of 57.33 against the dollar in trade yesterday. Markets would keep a close eye on next week's European Union summit. EU summit is expected to discuss measures on combating the crises; in case concrete measures are not announced, then it can cause further sell-off in risk assets and rally in the US Dollar. Also, any negative news on the monsoon front may spell trouble as it would escalate worries over inflation.The India Meteorological Department yesterday cut its forecast on the crucial southwest monsoon rainfall to 96% of the long period average from 99% earlier. Among stocks, auto stocks will take cues from their June sales numbers. Movement in stocks of Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries India will also depend on the outcome of the extraordinary general meeting Monday to consider the proposed merger of the latter and other Vedanta Resources group companies with the former.