Fwd: Market view & Stock Pick
Prabhakar A.K
Nifty (6217) Nifty has made higher high and higher low in last 3days; rally from 6030-6228 in 4days faces very important 6235 resistance if crossed then 6311-6357 failing to cross 6235 then profit booking possible. Today Nifty has to hold 6195 and cross 6235 for the rally to continue till 6265 & 6311, while nifty below 6195 then 6152 & 6129 can be possible downside level.
Till nifty holds 6088 this rally has lot of steam and post Delhi election on 4th December can give more clarity to market. Voter turnout data and exit poll would give short term direction.
Chart of the day TNPL-Rs.115 Market cap-Rs.798crs
Stock looks very good to target Rs.131 & 139 if 110 holds on downside, Stock is major beneficiary of de-inking pulp plant becoming operational from July2013, which has reduced import and improved margin.
A.K.Prabhakar
Prabhakar A.K
Nifty (6201) Nifty has failed to cross 6235; now below 6186 opens correction till 6129 or in worst case 6088 before any recovery can come. Nifty for the day failing to cross 6225 & below 6191 then 6152 & 6129 are levels to watch while if 6230 is crossed then 6311 would become possible. Nifty 50DMA 6077, 100DMA 5897 & 200DMA 5870 are important averages.
Global weakness & Delhi election would have impact on market and today evening few exit poll results would come. In 2004 May market has crashed post election alliance with Left, while in May 2009 market saw upper freeze once Left parties were leftout; all post general election results. Elections in India have had traditional impact on stocks and sector and if Market gets a feel of BJP winning then Infrastructure, Oil marketing & Power stocks could rally.
Update-M&MFINANCE Rs.309 given on 18th November@293 has made all time high Rs.316.60 and we have pending target of Rs.350.
SUNDARAMFINACE Rs.589 given on 14th November target of Rs.645 & 680 would start to perform once all time high Rs.594 crosses.
Chart of the day IL&FS TRANSPORT Rs.136 Market cap-Rs.2651crs
IL&FS Transportation has grown into the largest BOT road asset owner in India with approximately 13,161 lane km in its portfolio; with 26 BOT Projects in 16states and Operational portfolio of 6,398 lane kms of highways.
http://www.itnlindia.com/application/web_directory/Corporate%20Presentations/Nov2013Finalv1.pdf Company Trailing EPS is 26.57 Infra companies being high debt and delay in project clearance quotes @ low P/E multiple and now with government giving a push for faster clearance this stock would be rerated.
Technical View-Stock has corrected from high of Rs.367 to low Rs.97 and has formed a good base formation in last 5months and closed highest in 87trading days. Stock can be slowly accumulated for target of Rs.163 & 190 in next 4-6months.
A.K.Prabhakar
Prabhakar A.K
Nifty (6160) Nifty corrected till 6149 and now holding 6139 is very important for the rally and if 2levels 6205 & 6230 is crossed then 6311 & 6357 is on cards by next week. Today how nifty opens is important, if Nifty opens above 6190 and crosses 6225 and sustains this level after first hour then rally of 100-120Points minimum on cards on other hand Nifty fails to cross 6225 then chance of market remaining range bound with negative bias with 6139 as major support.
Politics to play major role:
Exit poll indicates BJP to do better which could help the party to gain more alliance partner before general election in May and next few days are crucial as results will show better picture as winning Delhi only will suggest a wave, otherwise it is anti inflation as high voter turnout indicate anger against ruling Government inaction.
Government if starts to act to cool inflation then BANKS can be bigger beneficiary I like PSUBANK the most and ICICIBANK, INDUSINDBANK, KOTAKBANK, YESBANK would do very good.
Group, Stocks & Sector which could rally if Market feels change in Guard;
ADANI Group stocks should do well ADANIENT-ADANIPOWER & ADANIPORT
Infra & Cap Goods- L&T, SIEMENS, ABB, AIL, ALSTOMT&D, HAVELLS, BHEL,CROMPTON, IRB, IL&FS TRANSPORT, NCC
PSU OIL Stocks: ONGC, OILINDIA, HPCL, BPCL & IOC (should do well as NDA had free pricing policy for petrol & Diesel).
In Media ZEEL will do very well
Today parliament session starts and every time hike FDI in insurance is talked about stocks which would benefit in that space will be ICICIBANK, DABUR, EXIDE, HDFC, RELIANCE CAPITAL, BAJAJFINSERV, ABIRLANUVO, SUNDARAMFINANCE, TUBEINVESTMENT to name a few.
Chart of the day ZEEL Rs.271 Target Rs.340 (1-2Months Stop Rs.255 for Traders)
A.K.Prabhakar
Prabhakar A.K
Nifty (6332) Nifty has closed gap-up partially with daily pending Gap-up(6275.35-6307.55) while Weekly Gap-up(6300.55-6307.55) and if this gap is sustained for 2more days then rally would become very strong. Today Nifty crossing 6362 then rally would continue with 6415 & 6441 as next levels while below 6312 then correction till 6282 & 6251 are on cards.
In a bull market; weak bulls have to be shaken out, so cut or correction would be regular and deep, with full of surprise and recovery would be mostly Gap-up or late recovery. This would make intraday player play other side (shorting) of the market to profit. Voice of Valuation/fundamentals don’t justify market @ these level has to increase with market rise then this rally normally becomes even stronger and other side which would say, I would buy if 5-8% correction comes which if a bull market would not come.
As a bull market continues, almost anything you buy goes up. It makes you feel that investing in stocks is a very easy and safe and that you're a financial genius.-Ron Chernow
News Impact- BJP declines to go along with a no-confidence motion being initiated by AP lawmakers, who have been opposing Telangana’s creation-Livemint In my view early election with defeat in parliament would brighten chances of UPA-3, which BJP would not be ready to concede.
Update- MARUTI Rs.1751 has made all time high Rs.1780.60 and now Target of Rs.1928 & 2124 become possible (Given on 6th December).
Chart of the day-HEROMOTCORP Rs.2200 Market cap Rs.43932crs Cash in book-3623crs Company generates free cash flow.
HMCL is the world largest two-wheeler manufacture with network of over 5500 touch point. In October 2013 Company despatched record 625420 units which is highest ever. Source Company BSE filing
Company has been maintaining leadership position and with general election around the corner two wheeler sales likely to pick up.
Stock is near all time high of Rs.2279 breaking which Rs.2507 & 2800 becomes possible in 6-8months from the time of crossing all time high.
A.K.Prabhakar
Prabhakar A.K
Nifty (6307) Nifty had held Gap-up(6275.35-6280.25) and today if we don’t break 6275 and cross 6348 then worst is over and best is yet to come, normally after event gap-up market would try to close gap and if not fully closed then 6-8% rally on cards. Today Nifty has to hold 6275 and crossing 6332 then 6386 & 6423 are possible levels while below 6275 then 6238 & 6209 becomes levels to watch.
Update- MRF Rs.19115, on 15th October @ Rs.15335 we gave Rs.17620 & 19000 are possible levels on the stock and still we like the stock for long term investor stock trailing EPS is 1907 and trades 10times while FY2015 EST is 2520 for which 7.5times only it trades.
News Update--SKS Microfinance Limited completes Rs. 80.81 crore securitization- BSE. On 22nd November we gave Follow-up on SKSMICRO @ Rs.172 Still around that price only, “stock is near 2years high of Rs.198.90 above which stock can target Rs.250.
Chart of the day-BALKRISHNAIND Rs.291 Market cap Rs.2821crs has debt of Rs.2163crs while trailing EPS Rs.38.2 Bloomberg EST 2015 EPS is 43.80.
BKT is one of the world's leading manufacturers of "OFF-HIGHWAY tires". BKT has the widest product range with more than 2000 SKU's (Stock Keeping Units) and is "One Stop Shop" for all off-highway tyre solutions. http://www.bkt-tires.com More than 90% of tyre production is exported to more than 120 countries across all five continents, in all the major markets of Europe, North & South America, Africa, Asia & Middle East.
BALKRISHNAIND Rs.291 has made all time high of Rs.323.30 on 6th November 2013 after some correction till Rs.273 stock is showing a triangle pattern break-out and very soon target of Rs.323 & 354 is possible in the stock. Traders stop loss would be Rs.273 below which is low in last 24trading days.
A.K.Prabhakar