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View Today
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DXY:
Dollar index is trading weaker at 80.61 levels as against yesterday's high of 80.99 levels. Markets are likely to take cues from a series of data releases scheduled to release later today including ADP employment, trade balance, ISM non manufacturing composite and new home sales. The intraday trend for DXY is bearish with support and resistance at 80.45 and 81.05 respectively.
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EUR/USD:
Although there were no major macro data releases in the Eurozone (EZ) and its major members, Euro moved from intra-day low of 1.3524 to an intra-day high of 1.3614. It is currently trading at close to 1.3590 against USD, largely flat from yesterday's close of 1.3588. Today, services
PMI for November will be released for EZ economies, which will be closely watched. Besides, detailed Q3 2013 EZ GDP data will be released today, along with October retail sales. The intraday trend for the Euro is bullish, with support and resistance at 1.3565 and 1.3650 respectively.
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GBP/USD:
After touching an intra-day high of 1.6437 against USD yesterday, Sterling is currently trading at close to 1.6390, largely unchanged from yesterday's close of 1.6391. Following a sharp positive surprise in the manufacturing PMI on
Monday, construction PMI also came in much better than expected yesterday. The construction PMI rose from 59.4 in October to 62.6 last month, marking its highest level since August 2007. Today, the markets will watch out for the services PMI for November 2013. The intra day trend for the GBP/USD cross is bullish with support and resistance at 1.6340 and 1.6445 respectively.
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USD/JPY:
Japanese Yen rose from a six-month low against the Dollar as investors await US job data that may provide further indications as to when the Fed will start tapering. The Yen is currently trading close to 102.60 against USD, as against
yesterday's lowest level of 103.38. JPY appears to have shrugged comments from Takehiro Sato, BoJ board member, who said early in the morning today that more monetary easing to add stimulus to the already loose financial conditions would not raise inflationary expectations, and thus the Bank should monitor the effects of its aggressive easing at this stage. Technically, the intra day trend for USD/JPY cross is bearish with support at 102.20 and resistance at 103.00.
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USD/CHF:
The Franc is trading flat today morning, holding on to most of yesterday's gains against both the US Dollar and the Euro. USD/CHF pair is currently trading flat around 0.9045, lower
than yesterday's high of 0.9100 amidst a weaker Dollar. Meanwhile, the EUR/CHF pair (currently at 1.2290) has fallen in each of the last four trading sessions amidst speculation that the ECB will maintain its dovish stance in tomorrow's policy meeting. Technically, USD/CHF is expected to trade bearish with support at 0.9010 and resistance at 0.9100.
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AUD/USD:
The Australian Dollar is trading weaker vis-à-vis the US Dollar as Q3 GDP reading (+0.6% QoQ) lagged market consensus (+0.7%). Moreover, non-dwelling construction and machinery investment contributed negatively to growth,
thereby raising concerns over growth prospects going ahead. The downbeat GDP data release is likely to induce the RBA to maintain its dovish stance and raises the possibility of further rate cuts going ahead. AUD/USD is trading lower at around 0.9060 compared to yesterday's close of 0.9137. Technically, we expect AUD/USD to trade bearish with support at 0.9035 and resistance at 0.9165.
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USD/CAD:
The Canadian Dollar is trading slightly stronger vis-à-vis the US Dollar today morning amidst a rise in North American crude oil prices. The USD/CAD cross is hovering around 1.0642, lower than yesterday's close of 1.0650. Intraday,
further gains in the currency are likely to be limited as markets now await Bank of Canada's policy decision due later today, wherein the Central Bank is expected to maintain a dovish tone. Technically, we expect USD/CAD to trade bullish with support at 1.0600 and resistance at 1.0680.
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Sensex:
The Indian equities opened in the red this morning, tracking weak overseas cues. Sentiment today is likely to remain cautious ahead of the Delhi state assembly elections, due in the day. Possibility of further profit-booking in today's trade is likely to limit the upside. Technically, the Sensex is expected to trade in the range of 20,600-21,000.
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USD/INR:
The Indian Rupee opened weaker at 62.43 levels this morning vs. prior close of 62.35, tracking losses in other EM Asian currency peers. The continued rise in crude oil prices is likely to further weigh on the currency intraday. However, the downside is expected to be limited on the back of possible inflows from Day 2 of the follow-on public offer (FPO) of Power Grid Corp.
According to data, the FPO was subscribed by 70% yesterday-the Day 1 of the offering. The issue would remain open till December 5th for institutional buyers and December 6th for retail investors. Technically, USDINR is expected to trade bullish with support and resistance at 62.31 and 62.57 respectively.
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G-Sec:
The Indian Government bonds are trading little changed in opening trade today. The yield on the new benchmark 8.83% bond due
2023 is currently hovering around 8.77% vs. prior close of 8.76%. For intraday trend, the G-Sec market is likely to take cues from USDINR movement. Over the week, the NFP data from US, scheduled to release on Friday, will be crucial factor to watch for.
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Oil:
Oil prices are trading higher this morning, aided by slight weakness in the greenback. In yesterday's trade, WTI had gained by 2.4% after the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline in US crude stockpiles by 12.4 mn barrels last week. Prices also found support after TransCanada Corp. announced that it will start the southern leg of its Keystone pipeline to the Gulf Coast in January 2014 that would help relieve the supply
bottleneck at delivery point Cushing, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Brent is also trading higher ahead of the OPEC meet in Vienna, due later today. Currently, Brent is trading at USD 112.9/bbl as against prior close of USD 112.6/bbl. Meanwhile, WTI is trading at USD 97.2/bbl vs. prior close of USD 96.0/bbl. Technically; Brent is expected to trade ranged between USD 111.50 -114.00/bbl.
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Gold:
Gold prices remain under pressure amidst weak investment demand. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust had declined by 1.8 MT to 841.4 MT yesterday. Spot gold had fallen to a 5-month low of
USD 1,215.4/oz yesterday. Today morning, spot gold is trading at USD 1,221.1/oz, little changed from yesterday's close of USD 1,223.4/oz. Technically gold is expected to trade bearish between USD 1,210-1,250/oz.
Please find attached herewith a file containing the detailed analysis.
Regards,
ICICI Bank : Treasury Research
Contact:
Samir Tripathi:
(+91-22) 2653-7233
Nikhil Gupta:
(+91-22) 4259-2180
Pooja Sriram:
(+91-22) 2653-1414 (Extn: 2195)
Tadit Kundu:
(+91-22) 2653-1414 (Extn: 2087)
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