Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (06 - 10.08.2012)

[rupeedesk]

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (06 - 10.08.2012)

                     Stocks of the three state-owned oil marketing companies that are declaring their Apr-Jun earnings next week are likely to take cues from the broader market, as well as crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement in the next five sessions. There are no major triggers for the stocks of the three companies Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd in the near term as a hike in diesel price has almost been ruled out anytime soon. Quarterly results of these companies did not reflect much on their performance and mostly depend on the timing of compensation provided by the government for revenue losses incurred on subsidised sale of fuels. All these companies are expected to report heavy losses for Apr-Jun as the government is yet to compensate them for the under-recoveries on retail sales of kerosene, diesel and cooking gas.

                      In the quarter ended June, the three companies' under-recoveries on these fuels are expected to be 478 bln rupees. Bharat Petroleum will details its Apr-Jun numbers on Aug 10 and is expected to report net loss of 38.90 bln rupees. Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum, which will report their numbers on Thursday, are seen reporting Apr-Jun net loss of 79.45 bln rupees and 38.60 bln rupees, respectively. Crude prices have remained relatively stable at around $103 a barrel for the last few days and rupee, too, has stabilised at around 55 for a dollar. If the rupee strengthens it will benefit the three companies and stocks may react positively. In case of crude oil, only a big movement is likely to affect the stocks. Reliance Industries is likely to continue tracking the broad market but bias remains negative next week, after the stock ended the current week with gains. Unless the market rallies next week Reliance Industries stocks may shed 10-20 rupees from current levels. If the broad market weakens, the counter may decline further.

By RUPEE DESK

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