The Pacific Ocean drives climate much more dramatically than the reverse - globalchange

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Message from discussion The Pacific Ocean drives climate much more dramatically than the reverse
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Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2011 22:07:41 -0800 (PST)
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Subject: Re: The Pacific Ocean drives climate much more dramatically than the reverse
From: Pangolin <pangol...@gmail.com>
To: globalchange <globalchange@googlegroups.com>
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It appears you did some quote mining but if you can link me to a
journal reference or specific statement by the authors of the papers
you cite refuting GHG driven Climate Change you're pulling your
hypothesis out of thin air.

It's just another random-b.s., science sounding explanation of
observed changes that excuses coal and oil burning. They're as cheap
as after-dinner mints.

No cites, no data, another out-of-field science statement with no
backing. Do you do surgery too?

Pangolin

On Jan 15, 5:10=A0pm, Robert I Ellison <rob...@robertellison.com.au>
wrote:
> Greetings from the flood zone. =A0I am fine - thank you - but
> traumatised by the deaths and angered and saddened by idiots who seek
> to make a political point out of tragedy. =A0Both sides of this argument
> are full of shit - intellectual featherweights who are instant
> internet experts on everything and are utterly convinced of their own
> logical infallibility. =A0Both sides angling to blame the deaths and
> destruction on the other. =A0I wish they would pull their f....... heads
> in.
>
> Rant over - I thought I would see if I could put a ruler under 20
> years of work. =A0Neither the floods or the current La Nina are notably
> unusual over the longer term - it is part of a Pacific decadal pattern
> that is likely to lead to decades more intense and frequent La Nina.
>
> see -http://www.earthandocean.robertellison.com.au/index.html
>
> As an Australian hydrologist, I was introduced to the concept of
> drought dominated and flood dominated regimes (DDR and FDR) in the
> late 1980=92s. These are 20 to 40 year periods dominated by droughts
> followed by =A0a 20 to 40 year period dominated by floods. =A0The origina=
l
> result was replicated dozens of times across Australia in the
> following decade. =A0In 1997 the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was
> described defining a link between sea surface temperatures and
> fisheries biology. =A0The periods of the PDO modes were exactly the same
> as the periods of DDR and FDR. =A0An apparent but astonishingly odd link
> between North American fisheries and Australian rainfall. =A0Over the
> following decade it emerged that the PDO is part of a pattern of
> decadal and longer changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific
> Basin with teleconnections to Asian, Australian, African and American
> rainfall - and seemingly to the formation of cyclones in the
> Atlantic.
>
> In 2003 I made the mistake of looking closely at the Climatic Research
> Unit surface temperature record - and saw that the inflection points
> are at exactly the same periods as the transitions between DDR and FDR
> and between PDO modes. =A0Still looking for the causes of DDR and FDR I
> read nearly everything that emerged on the PDO and the El Ni=F1o
> Southern Oscillation (ENSO). =A0However, without much of an idea
> anywhere of causative mechanisms, there was not much more than an
> intriguing similarity in the timing of changes.
>
> More recent work has identified the Pacific Ocean climate system as
> chaotic. =A0As I eventually realised, chaos is not just a word but a
> property of complex and dynamic systems in chaos theory. =A0It explains
> abruptness in the changes observed in ocean states and therefore in
> global temperature and in the transitions of Australian rainfall
> regimes. =A0It changes the way in which climate risk is viewed. =A0Where
> before, climate evolved slowly with cycles of minor warming and
> cooling in a system that is far from driven solely by greenhouse gas
> forcing. =A0After chaos theory, climate change is abrupt and predictable
> only as a probability density function. =A0There is objectively a small
> risk of catastrophic climate change (warming or cooling) that could
> happen within months as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
> emissions.
>
> Currently, revisions to existing satellite records, new data sources
> for radiative flux and ocean heat content, new theoretical work and
> computer modeling and new compilations of surface cloud observations
> are providing new ways of confirming a Pacific Ocean influence on
> global climate. =A0The picture that emerges is of the Pacific Ocean as
> far and away the major driver of global climate. =A0It does this
> primarily by changing cloud formation dynamics. =A0More cloud forms
> above cold water - and the biggest change to sea surface temperature
> on interannual, decadal and millennial scales occurs as a result of
> upwelling of =A0cold and nutrient rich (and also acidic) sub-surface
> water in the eastern Pacific. =A0These changes in cloud cover are seen
> in surface observations of cloud over the Pacific, in satellite
> measurements of reflected shortwave and outgoing long wave radiation
> and in modeling studies. =A0Most recent climate change has been as a
> result of changing cloud cover.
>
> And the cause of these changes? A small change in the initial
> conditions of a complex and dynamic system that most probably involves
> top down forcing by solar UV heating of ozone in the upper
> atmosphere. =A0As Judith Lean says - =91ongoing studies are beginning to
> decipher the empirical Sun-climate connections as a combination of
> responses to direct solar heating of the surface and lower atmosphere,
> and indirect heating via solar UV irradiance impacts on the ozone
> layer and middle atmospheric, with subsequent communication to the
> surface and climate. The associated physical pathways appear to
> involve the modulation of existing dynamical and circulation
> atmosphere-ocean couplings, including the ENSO and the Quasi-Biennial
> Oscillation.'
>
> Cheers
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